USD/CAD Nears Two-Week Peak as Oil Markets Wobble and Fed Signals Dovish Tilt

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

USD/CAD extended its five-day winning streak above 1.41 as weak oil prices, expectations of another Fed rate cut, and upcoming US–Canada data releases kept traders cautious but broadly supportive of the pair’s upside. Technicals signal room for further gains toward 1.4135–1.4250.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.41100

Entry Price

1.42500

1.40500

1.38198 +0.00051 +0.04%

60.0

Pips

Loss

1.40500

1.40499

Exit Price

1.41100

Entry Price

1.42500

The USD/CAD pair maintained a firm bullish tone on Tuesday, holding comfortably above the 1.4100 handle in early European trade as investors positioned cautiously ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar in both the United States and Canada. The pair is coming off its strongest weekly performance in more than two weeks, and the underlying fundamental backdrop continues to lean in favour of additional upside.

The Canadian Dollar remains pressured as oil markets struggle to stabilize. Despite a modest rebound on Monday, crude prices quickly ran into fresh selling, weighed down by persistent concerns that global supply will outweigh demand in 2025. Forecasts of rising non-OPEC output, combined with uncertainty over the resilience of global consumption, have revived market fears of a prolonged supply glut. For the commodity-linked Loonie, this backdrop is a clear negative. Each failed recovery attempt in crude reinforces the vulnerability of Canada’s terms of trade, amplifying upward pressure on USD/CAD.

The US Dollar, meanwhile, continues to benefit from steady underlying demand, even as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve may deliver another rate cut in December. Comments from several influential FOMC policymakers last week signaled increased willingness to ease policy further, citing softening economic momentum and early signs of cooling in the labour market. While these dovish expectations have limited the USD’s ability to break dramatically higher, they have not been enough to offset the broader risk-off undertone that keeps safe-haven flows alive.

For USD/CAD, the interplay is nuanced: the Fed’s potential easing path limits the USD’s top-side momentum on a broad basis, but the Loonie’s oil-driven weakness and relative macro uncertainty in Canada keep the pair supported.

Market participants are also displaying clear hesitation ahead of a dense series of economic releases. With volatility expected to rise, traders are avoiding large directional bets until they have better clarity on the health of both economies.

A delayed batch of US data kicks off the week’s momentum drivers. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales—initially postponed—will offer the first major clues regarding inflation dynamics and consumer demand. They will be followed by Pending Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, providing deeper insight into the cyclical sectors most sensitive to high borrowing costs.

Later in the week, the focus shifts toward Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders, a key barometer of corporate investment appetite, before attention turns north of the border. Canada’s monthly GDP print, scheduled for Friday, could be pivotal. Any indication that growth continues to underperform expectations would reinforce speculation that the Bank of Canada may need to maintain an easier policy stance for longer—another scenario favourable to upside pressure on USD/CAD.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD’s technical posture remains decisively bullish. The pair continued its upward climb in recent sessions, bolstered by strong support along its rising trendline and consistent buying interest above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). The market structure on shorter timeframes reveals a clean sequence of higher lows, underscoring the dominance of the prevailing uptrend.

Momentum indicators further validate the bullish case. Relative strength metrics, which recently retreated from overbought territory, are now flashing fresh positive signals following a correction phase—often a constructive sign that buyers are regaining control.

Initial resistance stands near 1.4135, a level expected to serve as the first upside objective for bulls. A decisive break above this zone could unlock further gains toward 1.4200, where psychological resistance converges with previous swing highs. Beyond that, 1.4250 emerges as the next medium-term bullish target, particularly if fundamentals continue leaning in favour of USD strength and oil-linked weakness in the Canadian Dollar.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4110

STOP LOSS: 1.4050

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/CHF extends its rally for an eighth session as technical buying, easing safe-haven demand, and widening ECB–SNB policy divergence lift the pair toward seven-week highs.

BUY EURCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.93501

Entry Price

0.94400

0.92700

0.93863 +0.00201 +0.21%

9.5

Pips

Profit

0.92700

0.93596

Exit Price

0.93501

Entry Price

0.94400

The Euro extended its advance against the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, pushing EUR/CHF higher for an eighth consecutive session and reinforcing a strong bullish recovery that has been unfolding since mid-November. After bottoming near 0.9179, its weakest level since 2015, the currency pair has surged steadily and now trades around 0.9344, marking its highest level in nearly seven weeks. The move signals a clear reversal in sentiment toward the Franc, which remains under sustained pressure despite no major deterioration in Switzerland’s economic fundamentals.

Traders indicate that the latest climb in EUR/CHF is driven largely by technical buying and the unwinding of elevated long-Franc positions rather than a fresh wave of Eurozone strength. The Swiss Franc had been one of the best-performing safe-haven currencies through much of the year, but with speculative positioning stretched, markets are now rotating out of the overbought currency. This short-covering dynamic has allowed the Euro to regain ground even as Eurozone data continues to paint a mixed picture.

A subtle improvement in global risk sentiment is also weighing on the Franc. Investors have trimmed defensive exposure amid early signs of diplomatic progress in US-mediated discussions aimed at refining a potential peace framework for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While any durable resolution remains far off, the mere appearance of constructive dialogue has been enough to reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the Franc. Broader equity and credit markets have also shown greater stability in recent sessions, further softening safe-haven flows.

Economic data offered little fresh impetus for Euro bulls. Germany’s updated third-quarter GDP figures released on Tuesday confirmed stagnation, with the economy registering 0.0% growth quarter-on-quarter and 0.3% year-on-year. The confirmation of flat growth avoided the gloom of contraction but did little to shift market expectations, leaving the narrative dominated by positioning and policy-driven forces rather than macroeconomic surprise.

The more influential driver continues to be the growing divergence between the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. After implementing four rate cuts earlier in the year, the ECB has now held policy steady for three consecutive meetings. With inflation drifting closer to the ECB’s 2% target and forward-looking indicators stabilizing, policymakers have adopted a more neutral tone. Markets broadly expect the central bank to maintain this stance at the December decision, reinforcing the perception that the ECB is approaching the terminal point of its easing cycle.

The SNB, however, retains a more dovish posture. With its benchmark rate at 0% after two cuts this year, the central bank has reiterated its willingness to act again if inflation softens or if the Franc strengthens to levels that threaten domestic price stability. Yet, at the same time, SNB officials have acknowledged that inflation is likely to edge slightly higher in the coming quarters, reducing the urgency for immediate further easing. This combination—soft dovish guidance without imminent action—has weakened the Franc’s relative yield appeal and contributed to its recent depreciation.

The interplay of technical adjustment, shifting rate expectations, and improving market sentiment has produced a supportive backdrop for further Euro gains. The structural picture does not necessarily reflect newfound Eurozone optimism; rather, it points to a market reclaiming balance after months of one-sided strength in the Franc.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF continues to trade within a robust bullish trend, with recent price action confirming a breakout from prior consolidation phases. The pair is currently holding above the critical support zone near 0.9315, a level that previously acted as a base during sideways trading. As long as price remains above this area, the bullish structure remains intact.

A sustained rebound from 0.9315 reinforces the view that upward momentum is still in play. The immediate upside test sits near 0.9366, an area that has historically acted as a short-term ceiling. Beyond that, 0.9380 emerges as a psychologically significant barrier and a structural resistance level aligned with the broader trend. Should buyers maintain control, the pair may attempt a deeper extension toward the high-0.93s and potentially into the 0.94 zone.

Momentum indicators across intraday and daily charts continue to show improving strength, with the recovery from November’s multi-year lows aligning with both trend and sentiment-based signals. Only a decisive close below 0.9315 would threaten the bullish setup, exposing levels closer to 0.9270 and weakening the immediate upward trajectory.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.9350

STOP LOSS: 0.9270

TAKE PROFIT: 0.9440

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

GBP/JPY is trading around 205.3–205.7 after recovering from an intraday low near 204.9, while the US Dollar Index sits almost exactly at 100 and the VIX hovers around 20...

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

205.544

Entry Price

206.800

204.300

207.130 +0.030 +0.01%

125.6

Pips

Profit

204.300

206.800

Exit Price

205.544

Entry Price

206.800

Overview

The macro backdrop remains structurally supportive for GBP/JPY, even though both sides of the cross have their own issues. On the sterling side, the Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 4% at its 5 November meeting, with a tight 5–4 vote and a minority already pushing for a 25 bp cut to 3.75%. The November Monetary Policy Report explicitly notes that CPI inflation has “peaked” and that progress on disinflation is underway, but it also emphasizes that policy is still restrictive and that the path of future cuts will be gradual and data-dependent. Markets now price a high probability of a first cut in December, yet rate differentials remain firmly in the pound’s favour versus the near-zero world that the yen only recently left.

On the yen side, the BoJ is holding its policy rate at 0.5% while telegraphing the possibility of a further hike to 0.75% in the coming meetings, but the signalling has not been strong enough to reverse the broader yen downtrend. Recent commentary from Japanese officials has focused more on warnings of FX intervention than on a decisive monetary tightening path, and external analysts still expect only very small, cautious hikes into 2026.

In that configuration, GBP/JPY is free to trade as a classic carry and risk-sensitivity pair: a relatively high-yield pound against a still-low-yield yen. Spot around 205.3–205.7 today, with a 52-week range of roughly 184–207 and recent intraday ranges between 204.85 and 205.91, confirms that we are sitting very near the top of the yearly envelope rather than in a neutral mid-range.

Market sentiment

Sentiment is cautiously risk-seeking rather than fearful, which is exactly the regime where GBP/JPY tends to perform well. The US Dollar Index is oscillating just either side of 100, a level that reflects neither an aggressive global dash into USD nor a collapse in dollar demand. At the same time, the VIX has eased back toward the low-20s, with the latest readings around 20–21 after last week’s spike, signalling that equity volatility is elevated relative to the summer but no longer flashing systemic stress.

In this environment, traders are willing to hold carry trades such as GBP/JPY as long as the macro narrative remains: BoE still restrictive, BoJ still ultra-gradual, and global growth not falling off a cliff. Recent sell-side and broker commentary has repeatedly highlighted yen weakness as the dominant theme in FX, with GBP/JPY setting or approaching yearly highs above 206 and analysts openly discussing scenarios toward the 207–210 area if the yen remains under pressure.

At the same time, there is a realistic ceiling: Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already escalated its verbal warnings about intervention, and BoJ watchers are debating whether the next rate hike comes in December or in early 2026.

That means the market is happy to buy dips but also very aware that a surprise BoJ move or real intervention headline could trigger an air-pocket lower. The current sentiment, therefore, is not “buy at any level” but “lean long as long as the intraday structure respects support and policymakers do not dramatically change tone.”

Technical analysis

GBP/JPY holds above 205 as yen stays under pressure and BoE edges slowly toward easin_1

On the M15 chart, GBP/JPY is behaving like a classic late-trend grind with controlled pullbacks. Intraday feeds show today’s range clustered between about 204.85 and 205.9, with real-time quotes near 205.3–205.7 and the 205.0 level acting as a psychological pivot.

With Bollinger Bands set to 20,0,2, price is generally holding above the mid-line rather than hugging the lower band, and short-lived dips toward the 20-period moving average in the low-205 area are being bought. That pattern repeated rebounds from the mid-line after testing the lower half of the band tends to characterise an ongoing up-swing that is consolidating before another attempt at the upper band, which currently aligns with the intraday highs just under 206.

From an Ichimoku perspective with 9,26,52 parameters, price is rotating either inside the upper part of the M15 cloud or just above it; the top of the Kumo roughly coincides with the 205.0–205.1 zone that has already acted as support today. Tenkan-sen is either flat or slightly above Kijun-sen on rebounds, signalling that short-term momentum has not yet flipped bearish, and the forward cloud maintains a mild upward tilt, which is consistent with a trend that is pausing rather than reversing.

Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15 has recently cycled down from overbought levels above 80 and is now turning higher again from the mid-range 40–50 band on shallow dips. That configuration a mid-range %K re-cross above %D while price holds over the Kumo top is typically the “reset” you want to see if you are planning to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend rather than chase the extreme. Putting these pieces together, the most logical technical stance is to buy pullbacks into the 205.0–205.1 support cluster, with a protective stop tucked below today’s structural low and the lower edge of the cloud, and a target aimed back toward the recent highs near 206.8, which line up with the yearly peak region discussed in external technical forecasts.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 205.500

TP: 206.80

SL: 204.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

AUD/USD is trading around 0.6450–0.6460 after a multi-day grind lower, while the US Dollar Index is holding just above the 100.0 handle. The pair’s near-term direction is being shaped by a firm but not explosive dollar, an RBA that is on hold at 3.60% but sounding cautious...

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64600

Entry Price

0.64000

0.64900

0.66326 -0.00057 -0.09%

30.0

Pips

Loss

0.64000

0.64903

Exit Price

0.64600

Entry Price

0.64900

Overview

The macro mix leans mildly against the Aussie despite a “higher for longer” RBA. Official data show AUD/USD trading near 0.6453–0.6458 on 25/11, extending a slow decline from the mid-0.65s over the past week.

The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% at its 5 November meeting and its Statement on Monetary Policy stressed that inflation is likely to stay somewhat higher than previously thought, implying that cuts will be cautious and data-dependent.

That stance is fundamentally AUD-supportive in isolation, but it is being offset by global drivers. The US Dollar Index is still orbiting the 100.0 region, with recent prints around 100.0–100.2, signalling that the Fed’s late-October cut has not triggered a sustained dollar down-trend. At the same time, broader narratives around a patchy Chinese recovery and softer Chinese demand for Australian commodities continue to cap Aussie upside and keep the currency trading near the lower half of its multi-month range.

When you put these elements together, you get a currency that is not collapsing but is struggling to rally against a dollar that still offers yield and safe-haven appeal, which justifies a tactical bearish bias in AUD/USD on intraday timeframes.

Market sentiment

The sentiment picture around the Aussie is fragile rather than outright panicked. Recent reports describe AUD “blowing hot and cold” with shifts in global risk appetite, trading inside a well-defined multi-month range where risk-off days quickly push it back below 0.6500.

Yesterday, AUD/USD even dipped below 0.6450 as China–Japan tensions around Taiwan flared, underlining how quickly geopolitical headlines can translate into AUD selling when the market is already nervous about China. At the same time, the RBA minutes and local labour data have reinforced the idea that Australian rates will probably stay relatively high into 2026, which prevents a one-way capitulation and encourages traders to fade extremes rather than chase breakouts.

On the dollar side, DXY holding a tight 99.9–100.2 band keeps the greenback “firm but not aggressive”: strong enough to lean on high-beta FX like AUD, but not so strong that we see panic short-covering.

In that environment, discretionary accounts often choose relative trades where the macro story is asymmetric at the margin: an Aussie that depends heavily on a still-wobbly China versus a dollar that remains underpinned by yield and safe-haven demand.

Technical analysis

The 15-minute structure aligns well with a sell-the-rally plan. Intraday data for 25/11 show a daily high near 0.6470 and a low near 0.6445, with spot currently sitting closer to the middle of that range.

On Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), price has been trading below or around the mid-line rather than hugging the upper band, and short bounces toward the 20-period moving average have repeatedly stalled near the 0.6465–0.6470 pocket.

That pattern of failing at the mid-line after lower-band tests is typical of a controlled down-swing where sellers are still in charge but are being selective about entry levels. The Ichimoku setup with parameters 9,26,52 shows AUD/USD either inside or just under the M15 Kumo, with the cloud sloping gently downward and the top of the cloud clustering near the same 0.6465–0.6470 zone.

Tenkan-sen is at or slightly below Kijun-sen, which tells you that momentum remains tilted lower even when price briefly pokes into the cloud. In practice, this turns the M15 Kumo into a dynamic resistance band that overlaps with the Bollinger mid-line, creating a clear technical “ceiling” for intraday rallies. Stochastic (5,3,3) has already cycled down from overbought territory after a modest bounce and is now turning lower again from somewhere around the 60–50 area, which is exactly the kind of mid-range roll-over you want to see when planning a fresh short: it signals that upside momentum has faded before price could break above the cloud.

As long as price continues to respect the 0.6465–0.6470 cap and M15 candles close back below the cloud top, the path of least resistance remains toward another probe of the recent lows around 0.6445 and potentially into the 0.6400–0.6420 congestion from earlier in the month.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 0.6460

TP: 0.6400

SL: 0.6490

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Federal Reserve officials signaled a dovish stance, pushing yields lower and sending gold prices soaring.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4121.76

Entry Price

4346.00

4038.00

4211.81 +13.90 +0.33%

808.3

Pips

Profit

4038.00

4202.59

Exit Price

4121.76

Entry Price

4346.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices rose this week as the market continued to adjust expectations in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Meanwhile, a significant decline in the 10-year Treasury yield also provided some support for precious metal prices. Although the market widely expects gold to hit new highs next year rather than this year, prices are still likely to continue climbing in the near term.

Recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials indicate that the balance within the Fed has clearly shifted toward the dovish camp.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly explicitly voiced support for cutting interest rates at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. She told The Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserve now faces greater risks from a sudden deterioration in the labor market than from inflation flaring up again.

She stated that the job market is currently “extremely fragile,” with the risk of a sharp, ‘nonlinear’ downturn rising. If policymakers wait too long, their room for maneuver will shrink. Daly emphasized that she no longer believes the Federal Reserve can “preemptively” address labor market weakness, arguing that the damage from a sudden drop in hiring would be harder to control than curbing inflation.

Regarding inflation, Daly stated that the likelihood of a substantial acceleration in inflation appears limited, noting that tariff-related cost increases this year have been lower than anticipated.

Although this was not a formal vote, her comments, combined with John Williams' earlier shift in stance, confirmed that the center of the Fed's policy spectrum has shifted significantly toward easing. This has elevated market expectations for a December rate cut to around 80%.

Yields Have Fallen Below Key Support Levels, Fully Activating Gold Bulls on Expectations of Fed Easing_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield breaking below the 4.036% support level indicates that the previous corrective rally from 3.947% to 4.162% has concluded. This follows the yield reaching resistance at the descending channel originating from 4.629% (May's high). Further declines toward the 3.947% low are possible.

Gold's break above US$4,132 indicates that the pullback from US$4,244 has bottomed at US$3,997. The rebound from US$3,886, serving as the second wave of a broader corrective pattern since US$4,381, remains ongoing. Gold is expected to extend gains toward US$4,244 and beyond, with weakening yields providing support. However, strong resistance near the US$4,346 high is anticipated to cap upside, thereby hindering the third upward wave of this pattern.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price 4118

Target Price: 4346

Stop Loss: 4038

Valid Until: December 11, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4109, 4098, 4087

Resistance: 4155, 4168, 4211

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The GBPUSD traded above 1.3100 on Tuesday as market focus shifted to U.S. economic data and the UK budget.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31185

Entry Price

1.33750

1.29800

1.33161 -0.00151 -0.11%

106.7

Pips

Profit

1.29800

1.32252

Exit Price

1.31185

Entry Price

1.33750

Fundamentals

During the European session on Tuesday, the GBPUSD traded sideways above the 1.3100 level. Pound trading remained cautious ahead of UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget announcement on Wednesday. Meanwhile, broad dollar weakness provided some support for the GBPUSD.

Recently, UK bondholders have been enjoying their best returns since the COVID-19 pandemic, but they are bracing for the government's upcoming tax and spending plans, which will determine whether bond investors succeed or fail this year.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a series of measures to help achieve debt targets when she presents the budget on Wednesday. Her first budget speech last year triggered a sell-off, while the bond market still bears scars from the crash caused by former Prime Minister Truss's fiscal policies.

This represents a major risk event for the UK government bond market, valued at £1.7 trillion (US$2.2 trillion). Fund managers have now reduced their exposure ahead of November 26. The UK deficit remains a key focus for bond investors, and recent reports that Reeves will not raise income tax have reignited investor concerns.

GBP Trading Remained Cautious as Budget Proposal Emerges as Key Risk Factor_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias for the day, with potential resistance near the 1.3150-1.3160 range. A break above this range could trigger fresh short covering, pushing the quote toward the psychologically significant 1.3200 level. Subsequent buying interest should help sustain the upward momentum, challenging the technically significant 200-day SMA near 1.3300.

On the downside, a break below 1.3008 could extend the decline from the 138.2% retracement level (1.2831) of the previous range between 1.3725 and 1.3787 down to 1.3140.

Overall, if bulls manage to break above 1.3247 decisively, it would indicate that the decline from 1.3787 may have completed its correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3100

Target Price: 1.3375

Stop Loss: 1.2980

Valid Until: December 11, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3097, 1.3038, 1.3011

Resistance: 1.3217, 1.3247, 1.3288

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

WTI's recent price action has carved out a well-defined descending channel. Near-term momentum remains skewed to the downside.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

58.274

Entry Price

55.500

60.100

59.271 -0.538 -0.90%

182.6

Pips

Loss

55.500

60.101

Exit Price

58.274

Entry Price

60.100

Fundamentals

OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) and the most recent OPEC+ communiqué have materially shifted sentiment. The MOMR revised the global supply–demand balance, highlighting that accelerating non-OPEC supply and elevated long-term inventory levels will continue to exert downward pressure on flat prices. While OPEC+ announced a temporary pause to scheduled barrel-for-barrel increases for select months, aggregate supply growth through 2025–26 remains ample, eroding residual bullish optionality at the margin.

More decisively, the IEA's latest assessment flags the risk of a larger global surplus in 2026, with supply additions outpacing the pace of demand recovery. This verdict undercuts the structural-tightness narrative that had underpinned long positioning. The confluence of these incremental supply-side negatives and the uncertain demand rebound sets the fundamental baseline.

Meanwhile, weekly EIA statistics show commercial crude stocks have failed to sustain a consistent draw amid refinery shoulder-season maintenance and lackluster demand. Seaborne and floating inventories are also trending higher. These "invisible barrels" prompt the market to meet bullish headlines with measured short-covering rather than fresh length. In short, stocks remain bloated and supply plentiful—near-term upside catalysts are scarce.

Technical Analysis

Bearish Bias Intact, Will $56.00 Hold?_1

On the 4-hour chart, WTI is printing lower highs and lower lows inside a clear descending channel. After prolonged entanglement with the EMAs, price broke lower, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Immediate resistance is now US$59.00. A failure to reclaim this level on a closing basis keeps the downtrend intact. First support is US$57.35, an accelerated break below opens the way toward the next structural floor at US$56.00.