The sudden easing of geopolitical risks caused oil prices to reverse course and decline.

Winkelmann

Commodity

Political

Energy

Summary:

Crude oil prices had previously fallen rapidly due to expectations of a peace agreement, breaking through key support levels, and the bears began to take control.

SELL WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

83.950

Entry Price

77.200

88.200

82.673 +0.043 +0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

77.200

69.483

Exit Price

83.950

Entry Price

88.200

Fundamentals

Previously, the United States and Iran announced the signing of a ceasefire agreement, which suddenly eased the situation in the Middle East and greatly increased the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the future, causing international crude oil prices to fall sharply.

However, the details of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement have not been released, the market remains cautious about the situation in the Middle East and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US strategic petroleum reserves have declined significantly. Oil prices have temporarily stopped falling above 80 and may remain in a fluctuating phase in the short term.

Technical aspects

The sudden easing of geopolitical risks caused oil prices to reverse course and decline_1

Looking at the 4-hour chart, XTIUSD has broken down from its high-level consolidation and entered a downward trend. In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate slightly and there may be a corrective rebound, but overall, the bullish momentum has weakened and the bears have taken the lead. If the price falls below the 80 level, it may further retreat to the 76-77 area.

The main strategy is to sell on rallies. You can try to sell short when the price rebounds to around 84 and stabilizes, with a target of around 77 and a stop loss above 87.8.

Trading advice

Trading direction: Short

Entry position: 83.95

Target price: 77.20

Stop-loss level: 88.20

Downside support levels: 80.0/77.0

Upward resistance levels: 84.0/87.8

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