Tariff Escalation Sparks Another Wave of Bullish Sentiment

Commodity

Summary:

The Trump administration's escalation of tariffs has driven a resurgence in gold prices, with technical analysis indicating a head and shoulders bottom pattern that further enhances the potential for an upward trend.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3326.37

Entry Price

3395.00

3295.00

4211.59 +13.68 +0.33%

313.7

Pips

Loss

3295.00

Exit Price

3326.37

Entry Price

3395.00

Fundamentals

The current upward momentum in gold prices is driven by policy expectation divergences, risk aversion premiums, and the weakening of the US dollar's creditworthiness.

Firstly, the escalation of tariffs under the Trump administration has heightened global supply chain risks: on July 7, tariffs of 25% to 40% were announced on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, affecting critical commodities such as semiconductors and agricultural products. This directly impacts industries accounting for 18% of global trade volume. The move not only elevates US import costs—Oxford Economics forecasts Q4 inflation could surge to 3.5%—but also accelerates de-dollarization among emerging market central banks. China's central bank has increased gold reserves for eight consecutive months, adding 70,000 ounces in June, continuing a trend of annual gold purchases exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, reinforcing gold's strategic long-term value.

Furthermore, the short-term rebound of the US dollar fails to conceal the deepening sovereign debt crisis: despite the US Dollar Index surging to 97.65 on the back of robust non-farm payroll data (a weekly increase of 0.58%), the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" by the U.S. Senate will add US$3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, potentially pushing total national debt beyond US$50 trillion. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has acknowledged that the debt trajectory is "unsustainable," undermining the dollar's creditworthiness and highlighting gold's role as an inflation hedge.

Finally, the anticipation of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks create a hedging support: although June's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the contraction of 33,000 in ADP employment reveals structural vulnerabilities in the labor market, with market expectations for a September rate cut remaining anchored at 60%. Coupled with escalations in uranium enrichment activities at Iran's nuclear facilities and attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, the geopolitical conflict index has risen to 87 (near the critical threshold of 90), with safe-haven buying potentially triggering automated trading algorithms at any moment.

Technical Analysis

Tariff Escalation Sparks Another Wave of Bullish Sentiment_1

In the 1D timeframe, gold experienced a prior correction to 3250, forming a double bottom pattern, which reinforced bullish momentum. The SMA system continues to display a bullish alignment, indicating that the overall upward trend remains intact. This further enhances the likelihood of short-term continued rally.

Additionally, the previous day's candlestick closed with a long lower shadow doji, confirming the 3290-3300 range as a strong support level. After dipping to 3296 yesterday, prices quickly rebounded to close at 3336, validating the resilience of the bullish defense.

Tariff Escalation Sparks Another Wave of Bullish Sentiment_2

In the 4H timeframe, after establishing a support level at 3250, the gold price's candlestick pattern is gradually forming a head and shoulders bottom configuration, which further enhances the likelihood of a short-term upward trend. The initial resistance target is expected to be around the 3400 level.

Trading Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3330.00

Target Price: 3395.00

Stop Loss: 3295.00

Valid Until: July 22, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3296.31, 3247.90

Resistance: 3365.54, 3400.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This level aligns closely with the 100-period moving average at 0.6517, creating a confluence zone that has historically provided a strong base for bullish reversals.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65000

Entry Price

0.65800

0.64600

0.66434 +0.00051 +0.08%

40.3

Pips

Profit

0.64600

0.65403

Exit Price

0.65000

Entry Price

0.65800

On Monday night, the White House confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying the implementation of new tariffs from July to August 1, according to Bloomberg.

The Trump administration had previously announced 25% tariffs on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, but the latest executive order pushes the enforcement date to the start of August. Additional 25% duties were imposed on imports from Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia, while South Africa faces a 30% tariff. Laos and Myanmar were hit with 40% levies, and other nations affected include Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), and both Thailand and Cambodia at 36%.

Economists have pointed to Trump’s unpredictable trade and fiscal policies as a significant factor behind the cautious tone surrounding the U.S. dollar. A recent Reuters poll conducted on July 2 revealed that approximately 37% of currency analysts view the ongoing tariff negotiations as a key element weighing on the greenback, alongside concerns about mounting U.S. debt and uncertainty over the interest rate outlook.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming July 30 meeting, with market-based probabilities standing at 80.37%. Money market futures are currently pricing in a total of 50 basis points of rate cuts by December 2025, highlighting a more cautious stance on monetary policy in the face of trade uncertainty.

On the other side of the globe, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is broadly anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would mark the third rate reduction in 2025, as the central bank continues to respond to a weakening economic backdrop. Market pricing now reflects a more than 90% probability of a July cut, with additional easing projected for August and possibly even November.

Australia’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that annualized inflation fell to 2.1% in May from 2.4% in April, coming in below market expectations of 2.3%. The RBA’s trimmed mean CPI, which excludes volatile items, rose 2.4% year-over-year—its lowest level since November 2021.

Meanwhile, the Australian economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in Q1 2025, growing just 1.3% year-over-year versus forecasts of 1.5%. On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced by only 0.2%, falling short of the 0.4% forecast.

The combination of softer inflation and subdued growth continues to support the case for further rate cuts, especially as the RBA has maintained a patient "wait-and-see" approach—more so than any other major central bank. A New Bullish Leg May Begin from This Oversold Area_1

A New Bullish Leg May Begin from This Oversold Area_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD has recently declined toward the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which currently sits at 0.6496. This level aligns closely with the 100-period moving average at 0.6517, creating a confluence zone that has historically provided a strong base for bullish reversals. These levels could now represent the lower boundary of a broader ascending channel.

Additionally, the RSI has dropped into oversold territory, suggesting that bearish momentum may be losing strength—potentially setting the stage for a fresh upside leg.

If the pair manages to reclaim and close above the 100-period moving average, we could see a bullish acceleration toward the 0.6582 area, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the current channel and may act as the next key resistance.

Conversely, a decisive breakdown below the support zone would invalidate the bullish setup and expose AUD/USD to a renewed wave of selling pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6500

Target price: 0.6580

Stop loss: 0.6460

Validity: Jul 17, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The recent bullish rejection candles formed around this low further indicate that buyers could be regaining control, potentially setting the stage for a recovery.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.79868

Entry Price

0.84000

0.77600

0.80333 -0.00122 -0.15%

19.0

Pips

Profit

0.77600

0.80058

Exit Price

0.79868

Entry Price

0.84000

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) took a distinctly dovish turn in June, cutting its policy rate to 0% and signaling that a return to negative interest rates remains on the table should deflationary pressures intensify. This marks a significant shift in tone and has introduced a new level of caution into the Swiss policy outlook.

On the macroeconomic front, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Swiss government have revised down their growth forecasts for 2025, citing growing concerns over escalating global trade tensions. The IMF now expects Switzerland’s economy to expand by just 1.3% next year—down from a previous forecast of 1.7%.

Recent inflation data further underscore the fragile economic backdrop. Swiss consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-over-year in May, registering the first deflationary print in over four years. However, the June figures showed a modest recovery with a slight annual increase of 0.1%. This ongoing softness in price growth continues to reinforce expectations that the SNB will maintain a dovish policy stance for an extended period, although the Swiss franc remains supported by safe-haven flows and investor caution amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

In the U.S., President Donald Trump is expected to begin sending formal tariff notifications to trading partners this week, setting the stage for new import duties. Although the deadline to implement the tariffs is officially Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments—indicating that the measures may be delayed until August 1—have introduced a layer of uncertainty, leaving markets wary.

Three months after announcing a pause in tariff increases, the U.S. has only finalized trade agreements with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam. The deal with China, notably, was more about rolling back earlier tariffs than establishing a comprehensive trade accord. Nevertheless, optimism remains, as the Trump administration hints at further imminent deals. Market sources suggest that India may be nearing a mini-agreement, and Bessent has also mentioned positive progress with the European Union.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady near 4.35% on Monday, edging higher from Friday’s 4.30% close. The sustained rise in yields reflects fading expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s trade policies. While the dollar continues to benefit from its safe-haven status, high yields are providing a solid fundamental anchor, keeping the greenback resilient against major currencies. Potential Upside Correction Ahead as Sellers Lose Momentum_1

Potential Upside Correction Ahead as Sellers Lose Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF has reached a significant local low at 0.7879, a level not seen since 2015. This sharp decline followed a breakdown below the previous support at 0.8044. The historical significance of this multi-year low is drawing attention from bargain-hunting buyers, and the pair could be poised for a bullish reversal from this deeply discounted zone.

Supporting this view is the RSI, which dropped to 25—firmly within oversold territory—suggesting that bearish momentum may be waning. The recent bullish rejection candles formed around this low further indicate that buyers could be regaining control, potentially setting the stage for a recovery.

Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart are located at 0.8426 and 0.8647, respectively. These levels may serve as potential targets in the event of a corrective upward move. Particularly, the 0.8398 area could act as strong resistance, as it aligns with a previously significant support zone now likely to flip roles. A decisive close above the 9-period moving average would strengthen the bullish outlook and could confirm the beginning of a fresh upward leg from the current lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.7985

Target price: 0.8400

Stop loss: 0.7760

Validity: Jul 17, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

WTI crude rebounded to $65.50 on Monday despite OPEC+ announcing a larger-than-expected output increase.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

66.495

Entry Price

72.000

64.500

59.979 +0.170 +0.28%

48.3

Pips

Profit

64.500

66.978

Exit Price

66.495

Entry Price

72.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures reversed early losses and clawed back above the $65.50 mark during Monday’s European trading session, defying downward pressure from a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to accelerate output hikes starting in August. The unexpected production bump initially weighed on crude prices, but optimism surrounding U.S. trade negotiations and supportive technical dynamics underpinned a swift recovery.

Futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) briefly dipped in early trade, following reports that the OPEC+ alliance had agreed to boost collective crude output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd)—well above the 411,000 bpd increase that economists and traders had penciled in. The larger-than-anticipated hike marks a continued unwinding of the group’s voluntary supply cuts, as producers respond to a more stable global market and pressures to keep energy costs in check.

Bloomberg noted over the weekend that the group’s latest move effectively accelerates the pace of output normalization, with the increases scheduled for August exceeding the ramp-ups seen in May, June, and July. For context, those earlier increases were already occurring three times faster than initially planned. This signals a stronger-than-expected confidence among producers in the demand recovery, or perhaps a concession to geopolitical and economic pressures mounting within member states.

Ordinarily, news of rising supply—particularly one of this magnitude—would exert downward pressure on oil prices. And it did, albeit temporarily. However, WTI’s recovery above $65.50 suggests that traders are looking beyond the immediate supply-demand dynamics and pricing in optimism on the trade front.

At the heart of this sentiment is renewed hope that the United States is on the brink of sealing several key trade deals that could boost global demand and, by extension, crude consumption. Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a notably upbeat tone in an interview with CNN, signaling that announcements were imminent. “There’s a lot of foot dragging on the other side, and so I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days,” he said.

Among the most anticipated is a trade deal with India, which U.S. officials hinted could materialize within 48 hours. However, no official agreement has been unveiled yet, and skepticism lingers over whether this optimism will translate into tangible outcomes.

Despite the buoyant mood, not everything in the trade landscape is supportive of oil prices. President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that his administration will begin sending letters to nations that failed to reach a trade deal with the U.S. during the 90-day tariff reprieve period. These letters will specify the tariff rates to be imposed, potentially escalating trade tensions and posing risks to global growth.

Such developments, if realized, could dampen demand for crude oil, particularly if global supply chains face renewed disruptions. Reciprocal tariffs from trading partners could curb industrial activity, limit transportation needs, and generally depress energy consumption—especially in emerging markets where demand growth has been the strongest.

In essence, oil markets remain delicately poised between a supportive risk-on narrative and fundamental headwinds. On one side, potential trade breakthroughs and economic stabilization are offering relief. On the other, accelerated OPEC+ supply and uncertain tariff policies continue to weigh on the longer-term demand outlook.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil staged a textbook bounce from key support levels. Prices had initially gapped lower at the open but quickly found footing at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a level that has consistently acted as dynamic support in recent sessions.

The rebound was further reinforced by early bullish signals emerging from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped into oversold territory before rebounding. This confluence of technical support and momentum helped propel prices back above the $66.00 resistance level, suggesting that the recovery may have further room to run—especially if upcoming headlines on trade turn favorable.

Still, traders should watch for potential resistance near $66.70 and $67.20 in the near term, with a failure to break those levels potentially inviting a return to $64.00 support. On the downside, if bearish momentum resurfaces, eyes will be on the $63.40–$62.80 zone, where price previously consolidated in late June.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 66.50

STOP LOSS: 64.50

TAKE PROFIT: 72.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

EUR/CAD trades around 1.6017, supported by U.S. dollar weakness and Euro strength from resilient EU fundamentals...

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.60145

Entry Price

1.60750

1.59700

1.61082 +0.00219 +0.14%

24.3

Pips

Profit

1.59700

1.60388

Exit Price

1.60145

Entry Price

1.60750

Market Overview

The euro continues rising amid a weakening U.S. dollar; EUR/USD hovers near four-year highs, boosting EUR/CAD. ECB indicators show stabilizing inflation around 2%, prompting a pause in further rate cuts and reinforcing EUR macro support. On the flip side, CAD is pressured by weaker oil prices, persistent trade tensions with the U.S., and potential BoC rate cuts analysts indicate a high probability for a July cut.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment favors the euro: EUR/CAD has rebounded from 1.5950 support, and forecasts from CoinCodex show July sentiment as bullish, with average forecasts around 1.615. OANDA lists EUR/CAD among top pairs to watch in July, citing commodity divergence oil hurting CAD, EU stability strengthening EUR.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD at 1.600 – dip-buy opportunity ahead of 1.610 on M15?_1

Support/Resistance: Key support lies at 1.5950–1.5990 (double bottom), while resistance clusters appear near 1.6100 and the 2018 highs around 1.6150.

Momentum: Daily and weekly momentum remains bullish; EUR/CAD bullish waves suggest targets near 1.6100 .

Indicators: On M15, Bollinger narrowing after the pullback signals a potential bounce. Ichimoku likely shows price above Tenkan/Kijun, trading above cloud base in short term. Stochastic (5,3,3) is rebounding from oversold classic dip-buy condition.

Trade Plan

Entry (Buy): 1.6000–1.6015 zone, ideally upon an M5/M15 bullish candle or Stoch showing upward crossover from <20.

Take Profit: 1.6075–1.6100, aligned with upper Bollinger band and proximity to key resistance.

Stop Loss: Around 1.5970 (just below the recent bottom and lower Bollinger line), managing risk for breakout failure.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

AD/CHF hovers near 0.5843. The pair remains entrenched in a multi-week downtrend, driven by Swiss franc strength (SNB rate cuts, safe-haven flows) and weakness in the Canadian dollar from oil pressures and trade uncertainty....

SELL CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.58300

Entry Price

0.58000

0.58600

0.58122 -0.00085 -0.15%

3.0

Pips

Profit

0.58000

0.58270

Exit Price

0.58300

Entry Price

0.58600

Market Overview

CAD/CHF is trading around 0.5843, roughly flat on the day. The Swiss franc continues its upward pressure following the SNB’s move to a zero policy rate on June 19 its sixth cut since March 2024 which solidified franc strength amid deflationary concerns and global risk aversion. Simultaneously, CAD suffers from soft oil prices and fragile risk sentiment as trade uncertainties affect Canada’s export outlook.

Market Sentiment

Broad-market bias remains bearish. Swiss franc’s safe-haven demand persists alongside SNB readiness to intervene in forex markets, reinforcing CHF strength. On the Canadian side, weak oil and trade jitters suppress CAD. Traders are positioning for further CHF gains, awaiting a fresh push lower.

Technical Analysis

CAD/CHF retests 0.5840 resistance — SELL setup valid amid steady downtrend_1

Trend: CAD/CHF continues making lower highs and lows, a clear downtrend since mid-June.

Resistance: Previous support around 0.5840 now acts as resistance. The pair recently retested 0.5840–0.5850 and showed rejection.

Trade Plan

Entry: 0.5830 zone, ideally after observing a rejection candle (bearish rejection wick)

Take Profit: 0.5800 (psychological support), extendable to 0.5785 if momentum persists.

Stop Loss: Above 0.5860 (just over recent minor highs and retest zone).

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

On July 7, 2025, AUD/USD trades around 0.6530 amid a weakening U.S. dollar and heightened RBA rate‑cut expectations. Macroeconomic pressures looming U.S. tariffs and an RBA cut due July 8 support a rebound. Technical indicators (Bollinger, Ichimoku, Stoch) on M15 suggest a bounce is likely from 0.6525–0.6530.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65204

Entry Price

0.65650

0.65100

0.66434 +0.00051 +0.08%

20.6

Pips

Profit

0.65100

0.65410

Exit Price

0.65204

Entry Price

0.65650

Market Overview

The U.S. dollar remains near multi‑year lows, pressured by tariff uncertainties and U.S. fiscal imbalance, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.653. The RBA is widely expected to reduce its cash rate by 25 bp on July 8, part of an easing cycle to counter sluggish Q1 growth (0.2%) and subdued inflation (~2.1%). Meanwhile, global risk sentiment is fragile due to potential tariffs set to start on August 1.

Market Sentiment

Risk-off flows are denting AUD, pulling it below 0.6550 for the third consecutive day. However, traders are poised for a relief rally after this overshoot, with sentiment arguably overstating the RBA’s dovish tilt. UBS views the Australian dollar as undervalued and expects it to recover to ~0.68 by year-end.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD reverses near 0.6500–0.6550 zone — Short-term BUY setup on M15?_1

Bollinger Bands: On M15, the lower band aligns near 0.6525 while bands begin to contract following the drop classic sign of an incoming technical bounce.

Ichimoku: Price sits just at the lower range of the cloud. Tenkan/Kijun are converging, hinting at potential short-term bottoming.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Currently in the oversold zone (<20), showing a bullish crossover ideal setup for a rebound.

Supporting macro noise overlap, we see conditions ripe for a quick corrective bounce within today’s range.