Rejection at the 100 Moving Average Points to Lower Targets

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This positioning indicates that the index still possesses enough open chart space to develop its downward movement before entering oversold territory.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.33674

Entry Price

1.32600

1.34600

1.33612 -0.00059 -0.04%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.32600

Exit Price

1.33674

Entry Price

1.34600

U.S. President Donald Trump complained that Tehran took "too long to negotiate an agreement," warning that it will "pay the price" and insisting that all Iran needs to do is "start signing a piece of paper." By nightfall, the U.S. Central Command confirmed strikes on multiple targets for the second consecutive day, citing Iran's "unjustified and continuous aggression," while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that "key facilities" were being hit and avoided answering a question regarding whether striking civilian infrastructure would amount to a war crime. Iranian media placed the impacts near Minab and Sirik, right at the gateway of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

On the economic side, data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.2% year-over-year in May, compared to the 3.8% recorded in April. This print marked the highest level in three years and came in exactly in line with market expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.5%, matching the estimates of analysts. The core CPI, which leaves out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% on the month and 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Given these numbers, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming June monetary policy meeting. However, interest rate futures show that traders expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates toward the end of the year in response to higher inflation. It is worth noting that while gold is often utilized during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, it does not pay interest, which makes it less attractive when interest rates remain high.

In the United Kingdom, Halifax House Price Index data published early on Friday showed an unexpected contraction in May, with prices falling by 0.1% to confirm a fourth consecutive monthly decline, against expectations for a 0.1% increase. On a year-over-year basis, house prices grew at a rate of 0.5%, which is higher than the 0.4% seen in April but stands at half of the 1% market consensus.

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor stated on Monday that interest rates at their current level remain restrictive for the economy and that he saw no immediate need for a hike to tackle the inflationary pressures that have grown as a result of the war in Iran. Last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey declared that the UK central bank is in no hurry to raise rates while the outcome of the war in Iran remains uncertain and the UK's growth rate stays weak. Even so, a shift in expectations has occurred; financial markets previously expected the BoE to cut interest rates twice this year down to 3.25%, but since the start of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the situation has reversed, and a 25-basis-point increase is now projected before December, according to reports from CNBC. Rejection at the 100 Moving Average Points to Lower Targets_1

Rejection at the 100 Moving Average Points to Lower Targets_1

Technical Analysis

From a chart perspective, GBP/USD remains locked in a downward move, recently tracking within a well-defined descending channel. This structural decline has been accompanied by the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages, which are currently positioned at the 1.3424 and 1.3474 levels, respectively. Because of this layout, these moving lines are expected to offer steady dynamic resistance whenever the price attempts to bounce upward, just as it did recently when the price faced a clear rejection upon reaching the 100-period moving average. Following this turn from resistance, we could see a renewed downward push developing toward 1.3260, where the lower boundary of the price channel is located.

A review of the oscillator section provides secondary confirmation for this active downward path. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently tracking at the 45 level, sitting just a bit under the neutral zone. This positioning indicates that the index still possesses enough open chart space to develop its downward movement before entering oversold territory.

At the same time, the MACD indicator is showing a positive histogram that is rapidly losing its upward depth, while the signal lines are already running beneath the neutral zero threshold. This configuration suggests that the recent upward bounce was only a temporary corrective move and indicates that the main downward movement is likely on the verge of returning, keeping the short-term trend under sell-side control.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3367

Target price: 1.3260

Stop loss: 1.3460

Validity: Jun 23, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Rejection at the 100 Moving Average Points to Lower Targets

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure