Pressure at 4500! Gold to Correct to Around 4200

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

Investors are still digesting the recent U.S. strikes on Venezuela. The underlying bullish sentiment has also become a key factor triggering profit-taking in precious metals. However, escalating geopolitical tensions and market expectations of a dovish stance from the Fed appear to be limiting gold's downside potential.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4464.48

Entry Price

4100.00

4600.00

4470.88 -6.91 -0.15%

199.8

Pips

Profit

4100.00

4444.50

Exit Price

4464.48

Entry Price

4600.00

Fundamentals

Earlier this week, U.S. President Trump made confrontational remarks about Colombia and Mexico, and then threatened to annex Greenland. In addition, traders have been pricing in expectations of two more rate cuts by the Fed. Nevertheless, this failed to sustain the U.S. dollar's previous day's rally; instead, it may offer some support to non-interest-bearing gold. Traders may also choose to wait for the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payroll report due on Friday.

Furthermore, factors such as the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the volatile situation in Iran, and the Gaza issue have heightened geopolitical risks, which may underpin the price of gold—a traditional safe-haven asset. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, rose by 2 tons from the previous day to reach 1,067.13 tons currently.

In terms of institutional views, Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices are expected to climb to $4,800 per ounce by the Q4 of this year, surpassing the previous record high. The bank pointed out that the main drivers behind the upward trend of gold prices include the downward interest rate trend, expectations of a leadership reshuffle at the Fed, and the sustained allocation demand from central banks and institutional funds.

The latest economic data showed that the expansion pace of the U.S. service sector slowed down. The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI final reading for December came in at 52.5, down from the prior reading of 54.1 and the market consensus of 54, hitting an eight-month low. Sub-item data indicated that the growth rate of new orders fell to a 20-month low, with businesses widely citing demand uncertainties caused by tariff policies and weakening consumer spending momentum. Meanwhile, affected by trade frictions, export orders recorded the sharpest decline since May. Additionally, due to falling capacity demand and budget constraints, employment scale saw a slight contraction for the first time in nine months, reflecting signs of moderate slowdown in economic momentum.

On the monetary policy front, recent remarks from Fed officials have highlighted their cautious attitude towards future interest rate adjustments. Thomas Barkin, President of the Fed Bank of Richmond, noted that future rate decisions need to be more refined to strike a balance between curbing inflation and avoiding a significant rise in the unemployment rate. Further, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that more than 100 bps of rate cuts may be needed in 2026. Currently, interest rate futures markets still reflect traders' expectations of two rate cuts in 2024. However, the probability of a rate cut at the January meeting is only around 16.1%, indicating that the market remains cautious about a near-term policy pivot.

Technical Analysis

On the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting and narrowing, with moving averages flattening out, suggesting that a trend reversal could occur at any time. In the short term, gold may still test the levels around 4485 and 4500. If it fails to break through the new high, it is highly likely to drop to around the EMA200, with the price hovering near 4288. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover, and upward momentum is gradually weakening. The fast and slow lines are pulling back towards the zero axis, indicating that the correction is drawing to a close. The RSI stands at 49, placing the market in a neutral consolidation zone.

On the 15-minute chart, after breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, the price rebounded quickly to around the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, with the fast and slow lines pulling back towards the zero axis but still remaining some distance away, suggesting that the rebound is not yet complete. The RSI is at 49, reflecting investors' indecision in the market. Therefore, the proposed trading strategy is to go short first and then long.

Pressure at 4500! Gold to Correct to Around 4200_1

Pressure at 4500! Gold to Correct to Around 4200_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4485

Target Price: 4100

Stop Loss: 4600

Support: 4200/4100/3800

Resistance: 4530/4550/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The fundamental analysis continues to support a bullish outlook for gold, but technical indicators suggest that gold is currently in a consolidation phase, likely to remain range-bound between 4,550 and 4,300 in the short term.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4465.11

Entry Price

4340.00

4505.00

4470.88 -6.91 -0.15%

165.1

Pips

Profit

4340.00

4448.60

Exit Price

4465.11

Entry Price

4505.00

Fundamentals

Recent bullish fundamentals support for gold prices include: firstly, the escalating market expectation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the first easing since the year's start exerting downward pressure on nominal and real interest rates, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of gold holdings and enhancing its relative appeal. Secondly, persistent inflows into gold-related ETFs from institutional and passive funds indicate strong capital flows, with institutional buying and ETF net inflows establishing visible demand fundamentals for physical gold. Thirdly, multiple investment banks and research institutions have revised their medium-term gold price forecasts upward, suggesting further upside potential driven by declining interest rates and central bank purchase strategies (e.g., Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook).

Overall, these factors underpin the logic of support for high-level gold prices: short-term market signals (U.S. Treasury yields, dollar strength, key economic data) may cause volatility, but medium-term expectations remain predominantly bullish due to sustained capital flows and policy outlooks.

Technical Analysis

Overall Trend Is Bullish, with Short-Term Volatility Persisting_1

In the 1D timeframe, gold is currently consolidating at elevated levels. Until the resistance at 4,550 is broken, it is likely to remain within a range of 4,300 to 4,550 in the near term. However, the SMA system still maintains a bullish alignment, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains upward.

Overall Trend Is Bullish, with Short-Term Volatility Persisting_2

In the 1H timeframe, recent candlestick patterns suggest the formation of a Head and Shoulders top structure. If gold fails to break above 4,475 in the short term and the 1H candlesticks close lower, it indicates the right shoulder of the pattern is forming, and bearish momentum will significantly increase. The initial target could be a decline below 4,400.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4465.00

Target Price: 4340.00

Stop Loss: 4505.00

Valid Until: January 21, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 4397.00, 4333.00

Resistance: 4475.00, 4500.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

If the price fails to breach this level and reacts to the downside once more, we could anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5302 zone.

SELL AUDCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.53700

Entry Price

0.53050

0.53850

0.53543 +0.00061 +0.11%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.53050

Exit Price

0.53700

Entry Price

0.53850

Domestic indicators from Switzerland continue to reflect a fragile environment for business activity. The SVME Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a sharp contraction in December, tumbling to 45.8 from the previous 49.7. This reading signifies a deepening downturn in the Swiss manufacturing sector, underscoring persistent structural weakness.

Market participants are now shifting their focus toward upcoming Swiss inflation data, scheduled for release this Thursday. Projections suggest the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show a monthly decline of 0.1% in December, following a prior 0.2% drop. Conversely, year-over-year inflation is expected to see a marginal uptick to 0.1% from 0.0%. Any print falling below these estimates could intensify fears of a structurally low-inflation environment, potentially pressuring the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reconsider a return to negative interest rates.

Across the globe, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), released on Wednesday, confirmed that inflationary pressures in Australia continued to moderate in November. The monthly CPI indicator advanced by 3.4% year-over-year, coming in notably lower than the previous 3.8% and underscoring a faster deceleration than the market’s expected 3.7% growth. Regarding underlying measures, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.2% annually. Meanwhile, the headline monthly CPI remained stagnant at 0%, unchanged from the prior reading.

This inflationary backdrop, alongside resilient business conditions and stable economic growth, led the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% during its December policy meeting. During the subsequent press conference, Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that the trajectory of inflation and labor market health will be the primary determinants for the Board’s February session. She reiterated that there is no predetermined schedule for future adjustments, stressing that policy decisions remain strictly "meeting-by-meeting." Since that session, the Australian labor market has begun to lose momentum; total employment contracted by 21,300 in November, driven by a significant loss of 56,500 full-time positions, even as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Potential Double Top Formation Signals Imminent Bearish Correction_1

Potential Double Top Formation Signals Imminent Bearish Correction_1

Technical Analysis

The AUD/CHF pair has recently enjoyed a powerful bullish impulse, but the rally is now testing a critical resistance ceiling at 0.5362. This specific level matches the peak established on December 9th, where the price previously suffered a sharp bearish rejection.

Technically, this formation is developing into a Double Top, a classic bearish reversal pattern that signals the potential exhaustion of buyers. If the price fails to breach this level and reacts to the downside once more, we could anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5302 zone. This area is significant as it aligns with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, a common magnet for corrective price action within an established trend.

Support for this corrective thesis is further bolstered by the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), currently situated at 0.5287 and 0.5294, respectively. The proximity of these MAs to the Fibonacci cluster adds substantial technical weight to the 0.5300 area as a primary downside objective.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 72, signaling overbought conditions. Crucially, this RSI peak is lower than the high recorded in December despite the price being at the same level—a subtle bearish divergence that suggests buying power is waning.

Traders should remain vigilant: while the Double Top setup is compelling, a decisive daily close above 0.5362 would invalidate the bearish outlook and likely clear the path for a continued bullish extension toward new highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.5370

Target price: 0.5305

Stop loss: 0.5385

Validity: Jan 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

These extreme levels typically signal that bearish exhaustion is setting in, as selling pressure reaches a climax.

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.73497

Entry Price

1.75600

1.72400

1.73990 -0.00026 -0.01%

19.0

Pips

Profit

1.72400

1.73687

Exit Price

1.73497

Entry Price

1.75600

The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to record an annual increase of 3.7% for November. This reflects a slight moderation from the 3.8% observed in October—a figure that marked the highest inflation peak since June 2024 and notably exceeded the median forecast of 3.6%. It is crucial to note that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) official target range remains firmly between 2% and 3%.

In October, the month-over-month CPI remained unchanged, yet underlying inflation—measured by the trimmed mean CPI—accelerated to an annual rate of 3.3%. Improved business conditions, coupled with robust economic growth and higher-than-anticipated inflation, prompted the central bank to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% during its December policy meeting.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that "inflation and employment data will be pivotal for the Board's meeting in February," refraining from setting a specific timeline for future adjustments as the bank continues its "meeting-by-meeting" evaluative approach. However, recent labor data suggests the Australian market is beginning to cool, evidenced by a loss of 21,300 jobs in November and a sharp reduction of 56,500 full-time positions, even as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

On the European front, annual inflation in Germany, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 1.8% year-over-year in December, down from 2.3% in November, according to Destatis. Monthly CPI remained flat, undershooting market expectations of a 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)—the European Central Bank’s (ECB) preferred metric—rose by 2% year-over-year, falling below the anticipated 2.2%.

While Spain's services sector gained momentum with the HCOB Services PMI rising to 57.1, Italy’s activity lost traction, falling to 51.5. In France, business conditions remained fragile, with the Composite PMI hovering at the 50.0 stagnation mark. Extreme RSI Levels Signal Potential Bullish Reversal at Key Support_1

Extreme RSI Levels Signal Potential Bullish Reversal at Key Support_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/AUD pair has experienced a significant bearish impulse following a decisive break below the 1.7485 support zone. This breakout effectively cleared the path for a fresh downward leg. However, the price is now approaching historical support levels near 1.7310, a region last tested in May of the previous year.

The definitive local low established during that period was 1.7250, a level that previously served as a launchpad for a massive bullish rally. Should the price exhibit a similar reaction in the current cycle, we could see the beginning of a significant bullish reversal from this critical floor.

From a technical perspective, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 12-hour chart are currently situated at 1.7674 and 1.7755, respectively. Given that the price is trading at a significant distance from these averages, the pair is considered overextended, making a corrective move to the upside increasingly probable.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged to a minimum of 24, placing the pair deep within oversold territory. These extreme levels typically signal that bearish exhaustion is setting in, as selling pressure reaches a climax. Consequently, institutional and retail operators are likely shifting their focus toward potential long positions, as the extreme RSI readings suggest the current downward momentum is losing its viability.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7350

Target price: 1.7560

Stop loss: 1.7240

Validity: Jan 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Spot gold extended gains on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve easing boosted demand.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4489.18

Entry Price

4300.00

4578.00

4470.88 -6.91 -0.15%

285.8

Pips

Profit

4300.00

4460.60

Exit Price

4489.18

Entry Price

4578.00

Fundamentals

Spot gold extended gains on Tuesday after U.S. sanctions against Venezuela boosted its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Should geopolitical tensions escalate further or upcoming U.S. data reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to adopt more aggressive easing measures than currently anticipated, gold could well march toward new record highs.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated on Monday that U.S. monetary policy may be “very close to neutral.” (Bullish for gold)

In an interview with CNBC, Kashkari stated that policymakers now need to determine whether inflation or labor market dynamics will become the dominant force shaping the economic outlook. “Then, we can adjust our policy stance from the current neutral position as needed,” he added.

Regarding inflation, Kashkari cautioned that the primary risk lies in its persistence, particularly as tariff-related price pressures may take “several years” to fully permeate the economy.

Regarding geopolitics, Kashkari stated that the primary economic risk stemming from the Trump administration's weekend arrest of the Venezuelan leader would manifest in rising oil prices. He drew parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, noting that commodity shocks—rather than the political events themselves—are the most likely direct channel to impact the U.S. economy.

In 2026, Kashkari will become a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, giving his remarks greater weight.

Risks at High Levels Are Mounting Amid Heightened Risk Aversion_1

Technical Analysis

Gold has just experienced its strongest annual performance since 1979. However, in the short term, gold prices may face pressure from commodity index rebalancing, which could prompt passive funds to reduce positions following last year's record-breaking rally. Therefore, despite gold's robust MACD and RSI momentum indicators, investors (long positions) should avoid chasing prices. Particularly with the initial sell-off level (US$4,365) fully recovered, the market could trigger significant selling pressure due to a shortage of upward positions. With the current resistance at US$4,470、4,495 acting as a cap, the path of least risk is downward.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4509

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 4578

Valid Until: January 21, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 4403, 4375, 4331

Resistance: 4472, 4499, 4527

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD is trading near $4,460–$4,490/oz, with spot and futures prices confirming levels above $4,470 intraday. Price has reached a one-week high driven by safe-haven flows...

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4480.00

Entry Price

4430.00

4520.00

4470.88 -6.91 -0.15%

500.0

Pips

Profit

4430.00

4429.81

Exit Price

4480.00

Entry Price

4520.00

Current market context and macro drivers

Gold remains elevated, with spot trading near $4,480/oz and a daily range from roughly $4,428 to ~$4,490 today, marking continued upward pressure. Today’s rally has been driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions (U.S.–Venezuela conflict) and markets pricing in potential Fed rate cuts amid cooling U.S. data, both classic catalysts for safe-haven demand.

However, this strong advance has pushed XAU/USD into stretched technical territory, especially on lower timeframes. When volatility expands rapidly with large unsecured advances, short-term buyers may begin locking profits, creating an environment ripe for pullbacks. Added to this, declining futures open interest and lower trading volumes suggest participation is thinning even as prices stay near highs.

Market sentiment

On the M15 timeframe, sentiment remains dominated by reaction to headlines and intraday positioning, rather than clean trend continuation. The move above $4,470/oz signals strong short-term bullish conviction, but repeated tests of upper resistance without significant follow-through often lead to short-term exhaustion and corrective retracements.

Traders adjusting positions in response to extended intraday moves especially in holiday-affected liquidity conditions tend to lean toward profit taking near local extremes. With price currently at the upper end of its intraday range and volatility high, caution among bulls is likely emerging, which can amplify pullbacks when technical support levels are probed.

Technical analysis

On M15, gold price is situated near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a period of high volatility and overextension rather than balanced price discovery. When repeated upper band tests fail to produce a breakout, the probability of a pullback toward the mid-band increases.

Bollinger Bands: Daily spikes have stretched the bands, and price staying near the upper band without a clean breakout suggests short-term exhaustion. A close back inside the bands after an extended move often signals fading upside momentum, paving the way for tactical shorts.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): While price is above the cloud consistent with a broader bull context on M15 the Kijun-sen and cloud boundary act as dynamic equilibrium. If price begins to slip and fails to reclaim the upper cloud resistance on retests, it signals a shift from short-term control by buyers to sellers.

Stoch (5,3,3): The oscillator is likely in overbought territory after strong advances. A bearish stochastic crossover from high levels particularly if price also struggles to stay above the Bollinger upper band would confirm that downward pressure is building.

Key dynamic levels today:

Resistance/entry zone: $4,480–$4,500/oz (upper Bollinger resistance + recent intraday high cluster)

Immediate support: $4,430–$4,445/oz (mid-band area + short-term pivot)

Lower support buffer: $4,380–$4,400/oz (lower band confluence)

Trade recommendation

Entry: $4,480–$4,500/oz

Take Profit: $4,430/oz

Stop Loss: $4,520/oz

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USD/JPY is trading around 156.3–156.7, retreating slightly from recent highs after dipping from daily peaks near 157.29. Despite longer-term structural strength in the dollar–yen pair, short-term macro cues and technical compression on M15 suggest a tactical sell opportunity if price shows rejection at the upper range, fails to sustain above dynamic resistance, and momentum rolls over

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

156.750

Entry Price

155.600

157.450

157.179 +0.321 +0.20%

0.8

Pips

Profit

155.600

156.742

Exit Price

156.750

Entry Price

157.450

Overview

USD/JPY currently sits around ~156.35–156.75, maintaining levels close to intraday highs but lacking decisive follow-through beyond 157.0. Live mid-market data shows a slightly weaker dollar against the yen compared with the previous day’s attempt to push higher, reflecting hesitation at elevated levels.

Macro drivers are shifting. Today’s FX session shows the U.S. dollar weakening broadly after a brief rebound, pressured by easing geopolitical anxiety and softer U.S. manufacturing data that diminished safe-haven demand. This move has seen the dollar index slide for a second straight day, with the yen benefiting as USD/JPY slips off session peaks.

On the policy front, the Bank of Japan has vowed to continue raising interest rates if data supports it, which could strengthen the yen over time and contribute to corrective pressure on USD/JPY. While this is a broader timeframe factor, it feeds into short-term sentiment that speculative upside may be limited and that rallies are being sold into near resistance.

Market sentiment

Short-term sentiment on the M15 timeframe shows buyers losing steam near the upper part of the recent range, with price failing to sustain a breakout above 157.0–157.3. USD/JPY remains range-bound within a narrow band earlier in the Asian session, suggesting that the pair is in distribution mode rather than trend continuation at these levels.

This dynamic is compounded by broader USD softness and improved risk appetite, which tends to benefit funding-clearer currencies like JPY when the dollar is not aggressively bid. The inability to push convincingly higher leaves space for tactical sellers to target short-term resistance clusters and dynamic supply zones typical of year-end flows.

Technical analysis

On M15, USD/JPY price has been testing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the rally is stretched on the intraday timeframe. Stalling near the upper band and repeated failures to break above 157.0 imply that upside volatility is becoming exhausted. A rejection candlestick near that band or a close back inside the BB range can be an early signal that bulls are losing grip.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15 shows price near the upper equilibrium zone and struggling to establish sustained closes above the Kijun-sen and cloud. This suggests that short-term balance is at a pivot point and that the downward edge can be tested when dynamic resistances hold.

Stoch (5,3,3) remains in neutral to slightly overbought territory. If a bearish crossover occurs near the upper band while prices hover below dynamic resistance, it will signal that sellers are gaining momentum within the range.

Support and resistance:

Resistance: ~157.0–157.3 (upper range barrier and dynamic supply)

Support: ~155.6–155.8 (lower BB area and recent range support)