Pound Slides as UK Jobs Weakness Fuels BoE Rate-Cut Bets; GBP/USD Faces Deeper Losses

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound weakened sharply on Wednesday as rising UK unemployment and slowing wage growth fueled expectations that the Bank of England could begin cutting interest rates as early as December.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31200

Entry Price

1.29000

1.32200

1.33246 -0.00066 -0.05%

52.3

Pips

Profit

1.29000

1.30677

Exit Price

1.31200

Entry Price

1.32200

The British Pound extended its losing streak on Wednesday, underperforming most of its major peers except the Japanese Yen, as renewed speculation over a December interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) weighed heavily on sentiment.

Market participants are increasingly convinced that the BoE’s tightening cycle has come to an end and that policymakers could soon pivot toward monetary easing. According to Reuters, traders now expect around 20 basis points of rate cuts before the end of the year, a view strengthened by a dismal set of labour market figures released earlier this week.

The UK’s latest employment data for the three months ending September showed a net job loss of 22,000 workers — the first decline in employment since March 2024. The headline ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5%, marking the highest level since early 2021 and underscoring the growing cracks in the nation’s labour market as higher borrowing costs continue to filter through the economy.

Adding to the dovish narrative, wage pressures — one of the BoE’s biggest concerns in its inflation fight — have started to cool noticeably. Average Earnings excluding bonuses slowed sharply to 4.6% year-on-year, the weakest growth rate in more than three years. The data suggests that the labour market, long considered resilient, is finally succumbing to the cumulative drag of elevated interest rates and weakening demand.

The slowdown in wage growth is also expected to feed into softer consumer inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for the BoE to loosen policy sooner rather than later. A cooling labour market, coupled with subdued consumption and stagnant business activity, gives policymakers a reason to start normalizing policy to support growth — a move that could weigh further on the Pound in the months ahead.

Despite the mounting pressure, not all policymakers share the market’s conviction that rate cuts are imminent. Megan Greene, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), signaled during a UBS conference in London on Tuesday that she favors maintaining the current rate stance. Greene argued that economic conditions could stabilize in the near term and that wage growth might rebound once confidence and hiring activity recover. Her comments, however, did little to shift sentiment as traders focused more on the hard data pointing toward a rapidly cooling economy.

The Pound’s underperformance reflects investors’ growing belief that the BoE will soon be forced to join the global wave of monetary easing seen in other major economies. As the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a potential soft landing and the European Central Bank faces similar calls for stimulus, the UK’s slowing growth trajectory could make the BoE one of the first major central banks to resume rate cuts.

From a broader perspective, the combination of elevated living costs, sluggish productivity, and waning business investment continues to erode the UK’s economic resilience. If unemployment continues to rise and wage growth remains weak, sterling could face additional downside pressure heading into year-end, particularly against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the GBP/USD pair remains under significant bearish pressure following a failed attempt to break above a critical daily resistance zone. The recent rejection at that level has triggered renewed selling momentum, suggesting that the pair’s short-term bias has turned decisively negative.

Intraday price action reveals a clear bearish imbalance, often a precursor to further downside movement. The pair’s inability to sustain gains above the 1.3150 region highlights weakening buying interest and validates the view that bears remain firmly in control.

Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are trending lower and have yet to show signs of exhaustion, while the pair continues to trade below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — classic signals of sustained bearish sentiment.

In the near term, i anticipate a potential decline toward the 1.3064 support level, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement area. A decisive break below that region could open the door to a deeper correction toward 1.3000 and potentially even 1.2900 in the coming sessions. On the upside, immediate resistance lies near 1.3175, followed by 1.3220, where renewed selling could emerge if risk sentiment deteriorates further.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3120

STOP LOSS: 1.3220

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Japanese Yen weakened on Wednesday as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks signaled continued government coordination with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and a preference for wage-driven inflation, dampening speculation of near-term rate hikes.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

154.878

Entry Price

158.000

153.400

155.415 +0.070 +0.05%

31.5

Pips

Profit

153.400

155.193

Exit Price

154.878

Entry Price

158.000

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its slide on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair trading around 154.85, up roughly 0.50% on the day. The move reflects renewed investor optimism toward the U.S. dollar amid dovish undertones from Japan’s leadership and growing anticipation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will delay further monetary tightening.

Comments from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reignited speculation about the country’s fiscal direction and the central bank’s next policy steps. Takaichi emphasized that Japan’s inflation must be driven by wage growth, not by temporary rises in food and energy prices. Her remarks suggested the government’s continued preference for a careful balance between fiscal stimulus and monetary normalization — a stance that aligns with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent caution over tightening too quickly.

Takaichi underscored the importance of close coordination between the government and the BoJ to sustain Japan’s fragile recovery, adding that inflation stability must coincide with higher real incomes. This language echoes the BoJ’s long-held stance that wage-led inflation, rather than cost-push price increases, is the key to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably.

Market participants interpreted Takaichi’s comments as another sign that the BoJ may hold off on its next rate hike, potentially pushing any move beyond December. Despite signs of internal debate within the BoJ about gradually normalizing monetary policy, policymakers appear hesitant to act amid fragile domestic demand and slowing global growth.

Meanwhile, Tokyo is finalizing a new economic stimulus package, scheduled for release on November 21, aimed at bolstering consumer spending and offsetting the impact of higher living costs. The package is widely expected to reinforce the BoJ’s accommodative stance, as fiscal stimulus often pairs with easy monetary policy to ensure liquidity support.

These dynamics have weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen, which remains one of the weakest major currencies this quarter. The combination of fiscal expansion, low yields, and a renewed global risk-on sentiment has kept the Yen under consistent selling pressure.

Across the Pacific, developments in Washington have also influenced sentiment. The prospect of a deal to reopen the U.S. government, following the longest shutdown in history, has lifted overall market confidence and reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as the Yen. However, analysts caution that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange market if the Yen weakens excessively, given previous verbal warnings when the USD/JPY traded near the 155.00 mark.

Adding to the complex backdrop, the latest U.S. labor market data from ADP showed private employment losses averaging 11,250 jobs per week over the past month. This deterioration has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in December, a shift that has capped further U.S. dollar gains. While the short-term rebound in USD/JPY reflects market relief and technical buying, the broader narrative remains one of diverging monetary outlooks between the U.S. and Japan.

With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday, traders are turning their attention to speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Market pricing now suggests an increased likelihood of a rate cut by year-end, especially if labor market conditions continue to soften and inflation moderates further in the coming months.

Investors remain cautious, however, as any hawkish pushback from Fed officials could reignite dollar strength and prolong pressure on the Yen. The market remains finely balanced between two opposing forces: BoJ dovishness versus Fed easing expectations.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has maintained its bullish trajectory. The pair broke through a key resistance level at 154.30, extending its short-term uptrend. Price action remains firmly above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing the dominance of buyers in the market.

Momentum indicators have also turned positive after cooling from overbought conditions, suggesting renewed buying appetite. The pair’s movement along the rising trendline indicates the potential for further upside, eyeing the 155.20–155.50 zone as the next resistance area. A sustained move above that region could open the path toward the 158.00 mark, though intervention risks may limit aggressive gains.

On the downside, initial support sits at 154.00, followed by the 153.40 level, which aligns with the short-term ascending channel. A decisive break below these levels could trigger profit-taking and signal the start of a consolidation phase.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 154.80

STOP LOSS: 153.40

TAKE PROFIT: 158.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Supported by yen depreciation and steady orders, Japan's manufacturing confidence hit a four-year high in November. The Japanese finance minister's verbal intervention served only as a “speed bump.”

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

203.029

Entry Price

207.000

199.750

207.088 -0.012 -0.01%

291.8

Pips

Profit

199.750

205.947

Exit Price

203.029

Entry Price

207.000

Fundamentals

According to the Reuters Tankan survey, Japan's manufacturing confidence rose to its highest level in nearly four years in November, buoyed by yen depreciation and robust orders, with electronics and automotive sectors performing strongly. The manufacturing confidence index climbed to 17 from 8 in October, marking its highest reading since January 2022. The electronics industry sub-index surged to 25, its highest level since December 2021.

A manager at an electronics company stated, “The weak yen is boosting exports.” During the survey period from October 28 to November 7, the JPYUSD fell more than 5%. Another manager added, “The semiconductor market, particularly the memory sector, is performing well.” The automotive and transportation machinery sector also showed a significant increase, with its confidence index rising from 9 to 27. Nevertheless, the overall manufacturing index is expected to decline to 15 in February, as some managers expressed concerns over sluggish automobile production and sales.

The yen's weakness persisted as Japanese officials' remarks reinforced the view that supporting economic growth through lower interest rates outweighs concerns about further yen depreciation.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated on Wednesday that authorities have recently observed one-sided and rapid fluctuations in exchange rates and are closely monitoring currency movements with a sense of urgency. While acknowledging that yen weakness has contributed to cost inflation to some extent, she did not deny that the currency's depreciation carries more disadvantages than advantages.

Market Watch: Satsuki Katayama's remarks can be viewed as verbal intervention aimed at attempting to strengthen the yen. The GBPJPY exchange rate retreated from its early session high near 203.57 to around 202.94, yet it continues to exhibit supportive dynamics. As is often the case, such verbal interventions tend to function more as speed bumps than substantive barriers. Further appreciation in this asset is anticipated.

Yen's Depreciation Boosts Exports, but Authorities' Verbal Intervention Is Unlikely to Reverse the Trend_1

Technical Analysis

The outlook for GBPJPY remains unchanged, with intraday movements still neutral. On the upside, a break above the 204.22 resistance level would confirm the completion of the pullback from 205.30, forming a three-wave correction at 199.04. A break above 205.30 could extend the larger uptrend from 184.53.

On the downside, a break below the minor support level at 201.36 would signal a shift to a downward correction, targeting 199.04 and below to extend the pullback.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 203.00

Target Price: 207.01

Stop Loss: 199.75

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 202.33, 201.76, 200.65

Resistance: 203.57, 204.22, 205.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

AUD/USD trades around 0.652 after the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.60% on 4 November and signalled a data-dependent stance, while the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizes near 99.6 with equity volatility subdued...

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65300

Entry Price

0.64750

0.65700

0.66371 -0.00012 -0.02%

10.5

Pips

Loss

0.64750

0.65405

Exit Price

0.65300

Entry Price

0.65700

Overview

The RBA’s November hold at 3.60% and its emphasis on vigilance toward sticky services inflation reduce the odds of imminent easing and leave the Aussie trading more on global dollar swings than fresh domestic catalysts this week. Spot is marked around 0.652 with today’s historical strip showing a 0.6517–0.6539 range, while DXY sits near 99.55 after failing to build on last week’s brief push above 100.

In the absence of new Australian data today, the causal driver for AUD/USD is the dollar’s ability to defend the 99.5–100 shelf, which has contained risk sentiment without forcing disorderly moves.

Market sentiment

Conditions are orderly rather than euphoric, with VIX around the high-teens, a regime that typically rewards selling rallies into well-defined resistance when the dollar is steady.

Local coverage after the RBA meeting underscored a cautious, data-dependent stance following Q3 inflation surprises, a narrative that dampens aggressive AUD outperformance and encourages mean-reversion flows against nearby tops when U.S. dollar dips stall.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD softens as DXY holds near 99.6 and RBA guidance stays cautious_1

Price is rotating just under the Bollinger mid-line after failing near the upper band in the 0.6535–0.6540 pocket, preserving a sequence of lower intraday highs that argues for a sell-the-rally stance while the 20-period mean caps bounces.

On Ichimoku, spot is testing or sitting beneath the Kumo with Tenkan ≤ Kijun; repeated rejections at the cloud top indicate overhead supply into the mid-0.6530s. Stochastic has rolled down from mid-range; a fresh %K < %D cross from the 50 area on shallow upticks usually precedes another lower-band probe toward the high-0.64s if DXY holds firm. These levels align with today’s 0.6517–0.6539 tape and the broader dollar backdrop.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 0.6530

TP: 0.6475

SL: 0.6570

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

CAD/JPY is holding near the upper-109s after printing a one-week high around 110.0 on 10/11, supported by WTI stabilizing close to $60 and a softer-bias DXY around 99.5–99.7...

BUY CADJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

109.820

Entry Price

110.100

109.600

112.461 +0.040 +0.04%

Pips

EXPIRED

109.600

110.465

Exit Price

109.820

Entry Price

110.100

Overview

The macro mix is modestly CAD-supportive versus JPY. Reuters marked WTI around $60–60.3 this week after a cautious bounce, while Brent tracked the mid-$63s, a backdrop that typically underpins Canada’s terms of trade when not accompanied by risk shocks. The U.S. Dollar Index sits beneath the 100 pivot, reducing broad safe-haven demand for yen and allowing carry to reassert in CAD/JPY.

On the Japan side, the latest BoJ summary of opinions disclosed a growing case among board members to raise rates “soon,” but the signal remains one of gradualism rather than abrupt tightening, which tempers JPY strength unless data force the Bank’s hand. Taken together with last week’s BoC cut already digested, these drivers keep dips in CAD/JPY attractively bid so long as crude holds and DXY does not lurch higher.

Market sentiment

Positioning is cautiously risk-on. Oil’s stabilization and the DXY’s sub-100 posture reduce left-tail demand for yen, while investors frame BoJ normalization as measured.

That combination supports carry expressions against JPY on calmer days. Price references from public dashboards show CAD/JPY peaking near 110.0 on 10/11 and holding 109+ through the week, consistent with a market willing to fade JPY rallies rather than chase them absent a decisive policy surprise.

Technical analysis

CAD/JPY grinds higher as oil steadies near $60 and BoJ stays gradual_1

The intraday structure is constructive. Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below, with repeated reactions from the 20-period mean after upper-band checks toward 109.8–110.0, a classic continuation pattern if the mid-line keeps holding.

On Ichimoku, price is rotating on or just above the Kumo, with Tenkan maintaining a slight lead over Kijun; the cloud top in the 109.2–109.3 zone acts as dynamic support and defines the tactical buy-on-dip area. Stochastic has been cycling out of mid-range; a clean %K cross back above %D from roughly the 40–50 band on a shallow retrace typically precedes another upper-band extension. Unless DXY reclaims 100 or WTI slips decisively below $58, pullbacks toward the cloud are more likely to find responsive bids than trend breaks.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 109.820

TP: 110.1

SL: 109.6

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold prices remained firm near a three-week high on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, though a stronger dollar capped further upside momentum.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4150.17

Entry Price

4200.00

4100.00

4207.58 +9.67 +0.23%

498.3

Pips

Profit

4100.00

4200.04

Exit Price

4150.17

Entry Price

4200.00

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its modest intraday gains in early European trading on Tuesday, hovering just below a three-week high as investors continued to seek refuge in safe-haven assets amid mounting concerns over the economic fallout from the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. The yellow metal has found strong support in recent sessions as traders brace for the potential growth shock that could arise from prolonged political gridlock in Washington.

The precious metal’s resilience underscores a broader shift in market sentiment as investors increasingly price in the possibility of renewed monetary easing by the Federal Reserve before year-end. Markets have now priced in nearly a 60% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, reflecting growing anxiety that the shutdown, coupled with recent weak macroeconomic data, could weigh heavily on U.S. GDP growth.

“Gold continues to benefit from a cocktail of uncertainty — both political and economic,” said one London-based analyst. “The shutdown’s duration has now reached record territory, and that’s forcing traders to reconsider the U.S. growth outlook. Combined with dovish Fed expectations, this creates a supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold.”

The metal’s upward momentum, however, has been partially tempered by signs of optimism that lawmakers are inching closer to a resolution. Reports suggesting that the U.S. Senate passed legislation late Monday to reopen parts of the government added a mild risk-on tone across markets, pushing equity futures higher and capping some of gold’s appeal. Yet, investors remain cautious, aware that any delay or failure in implementation could easily reignite market jitters.

Meanwhile, a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar has restrained gold’s advance. The greenback found some support as traders trimmed aggressive short positions amid thin liquidity conditions, with U.S. markets closed for a bank holiday. Still, the underlying sentiment remains fragile. The dovish tone from recent Federal Reserve communications — including growing concerns about the pace of disinflation and tightening credit conditions — continues to limit the dollar’s upside.

“Given the Fed’s current trajectory and the macro backdrop, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for the dollar to sustain a strong rally,” said another market strategist. “That dynamic naturally leaves more room for gold to push higher, particularly if bond yields remain suppressed.”

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold continues to display a constructive structure on the short-term charts. The metal recently settled above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), maintaining an upward bias supported by a minor bullish channel. Prices are now consolidating ahead of the next key resistance zone at $4,155, a level identified as a potential upside target in earlier analyses.

Gold’s steady climb from the recent lows has also coincided with a bullish signal from the daily oscillator, reinforcing the case for further near-term strength. Prices briefly pierced the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,134, a crucial threshold following October’s sharp correction from record highs. A decisive break above $4,155–$4,160 would confirm the continuation of the bullish phase and likely open the path toward retesting the $4,200 psychological mark.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4150

STOP LOSS: 4100

TAKE PROFIT: 4200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday, supported by renewed market optimism after U.S. lawmakers reached a deal to end the government shutdown, while investors largely shrugged off weak German sentiment data.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16000

Entry Price

1.17000

1.15500

1.16506 +0.00080 +0.07%

14.1

Pips

Profit

1.15500

1.16141

Exit Price

1.16000

Entry Price

1.17000

The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, recovering earlier losses and turning positive for the day as broader risk appetite improved following news of a deal to reopen the U.S. government. The EUR/USD pair was last seen trading around 1.1572, up from an intraday low of 1.1545, with the move signaling renewed confidence among investors despite mixed economic data from Europe.

The rebound came after the U.S. Senate approved a funding package late Monday to reopen the government, marking an end to the 35-day partial shutdown—the longest in American history. The bill now moves to Congress for final approval and is expected to be signed into law by President Donald Trump as early as Wednesday. Markets took the development as a sign of easing political tensions in Washington, prompting traders to increase their exposure to risk-sensitive assets, including the euro.

The political breakthrough overshadowed an otherwise disappointing batch of economic data out of Germany. The latest ZEW Economic Sentiment Report for November revealed that investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy remained deeply pessimistic. The headline sentiment index came in weaker than expected, reflecting lingering concerns about sluggish global growth, trade frictions, and muted industrial activity.

However, there was a silver lining. The assessment of current conditions, though below expectations, showed a modest improvement, suggesting that while investors remain cautious about Germany’s future prospects, they acknowledge signs of underlying resilience. More encouragingly, sentiment toward the broader Eurozone economy improved beyond forecasts, highlighting growing optimism that the bloc’s recovery might gain traction once near-term political and trade uncertainties fade.

Still, the muted market response to the German data underscores how heavily sentiment is currently tied to developments in the U.S. and broader global risk trends rather than domestic indicators. The deal to end the U.S. government shutdown helped restore some calm after weeks of political gridlock that had weighed on confidence and disrupted several key economic reports.

Later in the day, attention will turn to upcoming U.S. data, including the ADP 4-week employment report, which could offer fresh clues about the strength of the American labor market ahead of Friday’s official non-farm payrolls release. Traders are also closely monitoring progress on the U.S. funding bill to ensure no last-minute hurdles emerge before final passage.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair’s intraday move reflects growing bullish momentum. The pair’s rebound from 1.1545 coincides with supportive signals from the relative strength indicators (RSI), which point to an improving momentum backdrop. The pair’s ability to hold above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) is also lending additional technical support, reinforcing the argument for continued recovery in the short term.

Should the pair maintain its footing above this dynamic support zone, traders may see an extension of the bullish corrective wave in the coming sessions. Key resistance lies near the 1.1600 psychological level, followed by 1.1625, where stronger selling pressure could re-emerge. Conversely, a sustained move below 1.1540 could open the door for a retest of the 1.1500 handle, where buying interest is likely to resurface.