Potential Upside Correction Ahead as Sellers Lose Momentum

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The recent bullish rejection candles formed around this low further indicate that buyers could be regaining control, potentially setting the stage for a recovery.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.79868

Entry Price

0.84000

0.77600

0.79568 -0.00014 -0.02%

19.0

Pips

Profit

0.77600

0.80058

Exit Price

0.79868

Entry Price

0.84000

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) took a distinctly dovish turn in June, cutting its policy rate to 0% and signaling that a return to negative interest rates remains on the table should deflationary pressures intensify. This marks a significant shift in tone and has introduced a new level of caution into the Swiss policy outlook.

On the macroeconomic front, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Swiss government have revised down their growth forecasts for 2025, citing growing concerns over escalating global trade tensions. The IMF now expects Switzerland’s economy to expand by just 1.3% next year—down from a previous forecast of 1.7%.

Recent inflation data further underscore the fragile economic backdrop. Swiss consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-over-year in May, registering the first deflationary print in over four years. However, the June figures showed a modest recovery with a slight annual increase of 0.1%. This ongoing softness in price growth continues to reinforce expectations that the SNB will maintain a dovish policy stance for an extended period, although the Swiss franc remains supported by safe-haven flows and investor caution amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

In the U.S., President Donald Trump is expected to begin sending formal tariff notifications to trading partners this week, setting the stage for new import duties. Although the deadline to implement the tariffs is officially Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments—indicating that the measures may be delayed until August 1—have introduced a layer of uncertainty, leaving markets wary.

Three months after announcing a pause in tariff increases, the U.S. has only finalized trade agreements with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam. The deal with China, notably, was more about rolling back earlier tariffs than establishing a comprehensive trade accord. Nevertheless, optimism remains, as the Trump administration hints at further imminent deals. Market sources suggest that India may be nearing a mini-agreement, and Bessent has also mentioned positive progress with the European Union.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady near 4.35% on Monday, edging higher from Friday’s 4.30% close. The sustained rise in yields reflects fading expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s trade policies. While the dollar continues to benefit from its safe-haven status, high yields are providing a solid fundamental anchor, keeping the greenback resilient against major currencies. Potential Upside Correction Ahead as Sellers Lose Momentum_1

Potential Upside Correction Ahead as Sellers Lose Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF has reached a significant local low at 0.7879, a level not seen since 2015. This sharp decline followed a breakdown below the previous support at 0.8044. The historical significance of this multi-year low is drawing attention from bargain-hunting buyers, and the pair could be poised for a bullish reversal from this deeply discounted zone.

Supporting this view is the RSI, which dropped to 25—firmly within oversold territory—suggesting that bearish momentum may be waning. The recent bullish rejection candles formed around this low further indicate that buyers could be regaining control, potentially setting the stage for a recovery.

Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart are located at 0.8426 and 0.8647, respectively. These levels may serve as potential targets in the event of a corrective upward move. Particularly, the 0.8398 area could act as strong resistance, as it aligns with a previously significant support zone now likely to flip roles. A decisive close above the 9-period moving average would strengthen the bullish outlook and could confirm the beginning of a fresh upward leg from the current lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.7985

Target price: 0.8400

Stop loss: 0.7760

Validity: Jul 17, 2025 15:00:00

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

WTI crude rebounded to $65.50 on Monday despite OPEC+ announcing a larger-than-expected output increase.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

66.495

Entry Price

72.000

64.500

57.398 +0.165 +0.29%

48.3

Pips

Profit

64.500

66.978

Exit Price

66.495

Entry Price

72.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures reversed early losses and clawed back above the $65.50 mark during Monday’s European trading session, defying downward pressure from a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to accelerate output hikes starting in August. The unexpected production bump initially weighed on crude prices, but optimism surrounding U.S. trade negotiations and supportive technical dynamics underpinned a swift recovery.

Futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) briefly dipped in early trade, following reports that the OPEC+ alliance had agreed to boost collective crude output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd)—well above the 411,000 bpd increase that economists and traders had penciled in. The larger-than-anticipated hike marks a continued unwinding of the group’s voluntary supply cuts, as producers respond to a more stable global market and pressures to keep energy costs in check.

Bloomberg noted over the weekend that the group’s latest move effectively accelerates the pace of output normalization, with the increases scheduled for August exceeding the ramp-ups seen in May, June, and July. For context, those earlier increases were already occurring three times faster than initially planned. This signals a stronger-than-expected confidence among producers in the demand recovery, or perhaps a concession to geopolitical and economic pressures mounting within member states.

Ordinarily, news of rising supply—particularly one of this magnitude—would exert downward pressure on oil prices. And it did, albeit temporarily. However, WTI’s recovery above $65.50 suggests that traders are looking beyond the immediate supply-demand dynamics and pricing in optimism on the trade front.

At the heart of this sentiment is renewed hope that the United States is on the brink of sealing several key trade deals that could boost global demand and, by extension, crude consumption. Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a notably upbeat tone in an interview with CNN, signaling that announcements were imminent. “There’s a lot of foot dragging on the other side, and so I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days,” he said.

Among the most anticipated is a trade deal with India, which U.S. officials hinted could materialize within 48 hours. However, no official agreement has been unveiled yet, and skepticism lingers over whether this optimism will translate into tangible outcomes.

Despite the buoyant mood, not everything in the trade landscape is supportive of oil prices. President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that his administration will begin sending letters to nations that failed to reach a trade deal with the U.S. during the 90-day tariff reprieve period. These letters will specify the tariff rates to be imposed, potentially escalating trade tensions and posing risks to global growth.

Such developments, if realized, could dampen demand for crude oil, particularly if global supply chains face renewed disruptions. Reciprocal tariffs from trading partners could curb industrial activity, limit transportation needs, and generally depress energy consumption—especially in emerging markets where demand growth has been the strongest.

In essence, oil markets remain delicately poised between a supportive risk-on narrative and fundamental headwinds. On one side, potential trade breakthroughs and economic stabilization are offering relief. On the other, accelerated OPEC+ supply and uncertain tariff policies continue to weigh on the longer-term demand outlook.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil staged a textbook bounce from key support levels. Prices had initially gapped lower at the open but quickly found footing at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a level that has consistently acted as dynamic support in recent sessions.

The rebound was further reinforced by early bullish signals emerging from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped into oversold territory before rebounding. This confluence of technical support and momentum helped propel prices back above the $66.00 resistance level, suggesting that the recovery may have further room to run—especially if upcoming headlines on trade turn favorable.

Still, traders should watch for potential resistance near $66.70 and $67.20 in the near term, with a failure to break those levels potentially inviting a return to $64.00 support. On the downside, if bearish momentum resurfaces, eyes will be on the $63.40–$62.80 zone, where price previously consolidated in late June.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 66.50

STOP LOSS: 64.50

TAKE PROFIT: 72.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

EUR/CAD trades around 1.6017, supported by U.S. dollar weakness and Euro strength from resilient EU fundamentals...

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.60145

Entry Price

1.60750

1.59700

1.61613 -0.00037 -0.02%

24.3

Pips

Profit

1.59700

1.60388

Exit Price

1.60145

Entry Price

1.60750

Market Overview

The euro continues rising amid a weakening U.S. dollar; EUR/USD hovers near four-year highs, boosting EUR/CAD. ECB indicators show stabilizing inflation around 2%, prompting a pause in further rate cuts and reinforcing EUR macro support. On the flip side, CAD is pressured by weaker oil prices, persistent trade tensions with the U.S., and potential BoC rate cuts analysts indicate a high probability for a July cut.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment favors the euro: EUR/CAD has rebounded from 1.5950 support, and forecasts from CoinCodex show July sentiment as bullish, with average forecasts around 1.615. OANDA lists EUR/CAD among top pairs to watch in July, citing commodity divergence oil hurting CAD, EU stability strengthening EUR.