Amid a rapid escalation in security and diplomatic friction, Japanese media and officials have accused PLA aircraft of locking fire-control radar on JSDF planes near Okinawa, prompting an equally forceful riposte from Beijing. The string of incidents is feeding market anxiety over regional stability and the safety of Japan-based assets. Contrary to the historical "geopolitical shock → yen safe-haven rally" reflex, investors are now pricing a "capital-flight risk + waning confidence in Japan's economic and asset security" narrative, which is exerting sustained downward pressure on JPY.

This psychological logic is driven by two core forces. First, capital is reassessing the risk premium on JPY/JGBs. As geopolitical tensions persist, international investors demand a higher risk premium on Japanese assets, prompting multinational funds to trim JPY exposures and redeploy into USD and alternative-currency assets. Once these outflows become a sustained rotation, the expanded supply and reduced demand for yen exert natural downward pressure. Second, markets are pricing in heightened uncertainty over Japan's domestic growth outlook and the credibility of its inflation-cum-fiscal anchor. Should the conflict disrupt trade, export receipts, or FDI inflows, the expected macro-volatility further erodes the yen's store-of-value appeal.

Meanwhile, the dollar is drawing liquidity away from the yen, buoyed by its reserve-currency status, safe-haven appeal and the still-competitive real yields on offer in the U.S. Treasury market. Even in the absence of a material Fed pivot, USDJPY can stay bid as long as cross-border flows continue to favour the depth and safety of USD-denominated assets. In other words, when geopolitical risk collides with portfolio-flow risk, the traditional "risk-off JPY bid" can reverse. The market has already priced in this dual structure of a "capital-inflow premium plus safety premium," providing a durable underpinning for a weaker yen and a stronger USDJPY.

USDJPY has broken out of the symmetrical-triangle consolidation and the underlying bias remains bullish. Although the pair has been pulling back recently, the last few sessions have produced consecutive long-lower-shadow candles. Friday's close formed a textbook hammer, an explicit reversal signal, indicating that short-term buying momentum has strengthened and the uptrend is likely to resume.

Immediate resistance is eyed at 155.90-156.00. A decisive break and daily close above 156.00 would open extension room toward 158.00, with scope to challenge the psychological 160.00 handle.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 155.20

Target Price: 160.10

Stop Loss: 154.30

Valid Until: December, 22, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 154.90/154.34

Resistance Levels: 155.92/160.00

With Chancellor Rachel Reeves formally unveiling the budget, previous market anxiety over fiscal policy uncertainty has significantly eased, and the suppression of risk appetite caused by that uncertainty has been fully lifted. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD extended its recent strength last week, demonstrating robust market resilience. From a support perspective, positive changes in domestic fundamentals form the core underpinning. On one hand, the UK budget passed the first round of stress tests in the bond market smoothly, markedly cooling investor concerns about UK fiscal sustainability, effectively stabilizing cross-border capital flows, and providing fundamental support for sterling. On the other hand, Wednesday's upward revision of the final November Composite PMI showed marginal improvement in both UK services and manufacturing sectors, dispelling market fears of stagflation and further strengthening fundamental support for the exchange rate. Regarding the external environment, growing expectations for a Fed rate cut at this week's meeting dampened the USDX, offering reverse impetus for GBP/USD gains. Market analysis generally believes that the pound's recent strength partly stems from a "short squeeze" effect — speculative traders who had bet on pound weakness were forced to cover positions as the currency continued rising, amplifying short-term upward momentum. Looking ahead, the trading logic for GBP/USD will center on policy divergence between the BoE and the Fed: markets widely expect the Bank of England to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the December meeting, which may exert temporary downward pressure on sterling. However, expectations for the Fed to begin a rate-cutting cycle are equally strong, making the dollar's weak trend difficult to reverse in the near term, thus continuously providing reverse support for the pound. The interplay of these two forces will dominate the exchange rate's future trajectory.

As markets anticipate another Fed rate cut this week, the dollar is hovering near its lowest level since late October, making it a key driver of GBP/USD's continued strength. Traders see nearly a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut at next week's meeting, with expectations of possibly two more cuts next year. This view is backed collectively by top investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America, all of which recently revised their Fed December policy outlook from 'hold steady" to "cut by 25 bps." Recent U.S. labor market data showing some softness has further reinforced rate-cut expectations. On Friday, the early-December U.S. consumer confidence index improved marginally, and September core PCE inflation met market forecasts. Nevertheless, such fundamental data failed to reverse dollar weakness, as market attention is now fully focused on the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Moreover, potential leadership changes at the Fed have added dovish speculation: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is seen as a leading candidate to succeed current Chair Powell, and his relatively accommodative policy leanings have sparked expectations of adjustments to the Fed's long-term framework. With near-term rate-cut expectations already heavily priced in, this marginal shift in longer-term policy orientation has further intensified downward pressure on the dollar.

Based on the four-hour chart, GBP/USD is rising strongly along EMA12, but the MACD and signal lines have formed a death cross. Although they are returning near the zero axis, there is some distance away, indicating the adjustment phase is not yet over. Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow, moving averages are flattening, and a pullback toward the Bollinger Middle Band and EMA50 is likely, targeting around 1.33 and 1.327. Besides, the RSI stands at 59, reflecting bullish sentiment. On the one-hour chart, price highs are gradually declining, signaling a short-term downtrend. Moreover, the MACD's upward momentum is weakening, suggesting a probable decline toward the Bollinger Lower Band and EMA200. RSI is at 45, showing pessimistic sentiment, and its peaks are also falling. Therefore, selling at highs remains the key strategy.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3332

Target price: 1.29

Stop loss: 1.35

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance: 1.34/1.342/1.35

On Friday, gold prices held steady near US$4,200 per ounce as investors focused on key inflation reports due next week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, core PCE data will be particularly significant. Should inflation figures exceed expectations, the Fed may opt to keep interest rates unchanged. Conversely, if the data meets or falls below projections, it would pave the way for another rate cut as anticipated.

Earlier this week, further signs emerged of cooling in the labor market. The ADP report showed private-sector employment unexpectedly declined by 32,000, while the market had anticipated 71,000 layoffs in November. This brings the total layoffs so far this year to nearly 1.17 million.

Weak employment data has further bolstered investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as next week, with the market currently implying an approximately 87% probability of a rate cut.

Further bolstering dovish sentiment are reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair in May. Markets interpreted this as a potential shift toward more aggressive easing by the Fed.

Despite closing slightly lower during the Golden Week holiday, gold maintained solid support ahead of key data releases.

Gold prices rebounded on Friday but remained within the weekly trading range. Expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve continued to weigh on the dollar and provided support for gold prices. However, bulls may opt to wait for the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index before making aggressive bets.

Nevertheless, we believe that since today marks the final trading day of the week, even if gold prices surge strongly, the rally is unlikely to be overly aggressive. Due to price algorithmic factors, upward resistance for gold will likely be encountered in the 4245–4250 range, which represents the average weekly resistance level. At the same time, given that past PCE data releases have typically exerted only limited market impact, it would be unwise to anticipate bullish momentum extending significantly further.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4209

Target Price: 4350

Stop Loss: 4160

Valid Until: December 21, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4188, 4174, 4164

Resistance: 4208, 4217, 4241

EUR/JPY regained upward momentum on Friday, recovering from early-session weakness as the Japanese Yen once again struggled to capitalize on mounting speculation of an upcoming Bank of Japan rate hike. The pair was last seen trading near 180.77 after dipping to an intraday low of 180.10, extending a familiar pattern of range-bound movement that has dominated trade since mid-November. Despite intraday swings, the underlying bias remains tilted toward the Euro, thanks in part to an improving economic backdrop across the Eurozone.

The Euro drew significant support from fresh GDP figures released by Eurostat, which painted a more resilient picture of the region’s economic landscape than previously anticipated. Third-quarter GDP expanded 0.3% on a quarterly basis, outperforming market forecasts of 0.2% and improving from the 0.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Year-on-year growth reached 1.4%, matching expectations and reinforcing the narrative that Europe’s recovery—although uneven—continues to slowly rebuild momentum.

The data highlighted broad improvement across key components of the Eurozone economy. Household spending edged higher, signaling modest improvement in consumer sentiment despite persistent price pressures. Government expenditure rose at a faster pace, offering fiscal support at a time when private sector confidence remains fragile. Investment activity also strengthened, rising nearly 1% and underscoring renewed confidence in long-term capital commitments. External trade contributed positively as both exports and imports increased, pointing to a gradual normalization of global supply and demand conditions.

Labour market trends were similarly encouraging. Employment in the Eurozone increased 0.2% during the quarter, surpassing analyst estimates and strengthening from the previous reading. On an annual basis, employment rose 0.6%, reinforcing the notion that the labour market remains tight and continues to provide a buffer against cyclical pressures. For currency markets, this relative macroeconomic stability has been sufficient to keep the Euro buoyant and limit aggressive Yen-driven pullbacks.

On the Japanese side, however, the dynamics remain far more complicated. Despite a growing chorus of speculation suggesting that the Bank of Japan may finally lift interest rates at its December 18–19 meeting, the Yen has been unable to sustain meaningful gains. Earlier in the week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a willingness to consider policy adjustments, triggering renewed expectations of an imminent exit from the central bank’s long-standing ultra-loose stance.

That sentiment was reinforced by a Bloomberg report suggesting that BoJ officials are prepared to raise rates at the upcoming meeting, provided no major economic or financial shock emerges in the near term. The report also indicated policymakers may communicate readiness to pursue further rate increases if inflation trends and economic conditions continue to develop as projected. Still, the same insiders cautioned that the BoJ remains unsure about how far interest rates should ultimately rise, reflecting a characteristically cautious approach to tightening.

The Yen’s inability to strengthen in response to these developments highlights ongoing skepticism among traders. Many remain wary given the BoJ’s history of signaling shifts only to pull back at the last moment. Others believe that even if a hike occurs, it may be more symbolic than structural, offering limited long-term support for the currency. With global risk sentiment relatively stable, the Yen has also been unable to attract its usual safe-haven flows.

Market attention now shifts to Monday’s incoming Japanese data batch, which includes labor earnings, current account figures, and the final Q3 GDP revision. These figures will play a critical role in shaping expectations heading into the December meeting. Stronger growth and earnings could bolster confidence in a rate hike, while weaker numbers may reintroduce doubts and weaken the Yen further.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY’s structure remains broadly constructive despite the latest corrective dip. The pair closed below the 181.70 ceiling, signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum, while stochastic indicators continue to reveal lingering negative pressure. Nonetheless, the decline remains shallow and does not threaten the broader upward trajectory as long as the pair maintains support near the 179.40 zone. The market’s repeated refusals to break below this key level reinforce its importance as the base of the current bullish structure.

The correction toward 180.10 appears to be part of a healthier consolidation pattern rather than the early stages of a reversal. Traders are expected to look for renewed bullish momentum in the coming sessions, especially if Eurozone macro conditions continue to firm or if Japanese data fail to significantly strengthen the case for a BoJ hike. A decisive break above 181.70 would reopen bullish pathways and potentially extend the recent uptrend.

For now, EUR/JPY is expected to oscillate between 179.65 and 181.70, with the overarching trend still favoring the upside as long as key support levels hold.

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 180.830

STOP LOSS: 180.00

TAKE PROFIT: 186.00

GBPUSD stormed to a five-week peak Thursday, delivering its largest one-day advance since April 2025. The move was fuelled by (i) an upward revision to high-frequency business-activity gauges, (ii) the dissipation of Budget-related tail-risk, and (iii) heightened market pricing that the FOMC will imminently embark on an easing cycle.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined for ten consecutive sessions. Should the skid extend it would mark the longest losing streak since the post-Bretton Woods float in 1971, further lubricating the upside in GBPUSD.

The proximate trigger was the final November S&P Global UK Composite PMI, which was revised materially higher from its flash estimate and spans both the services and manufacturing sectors, portraying a discernibly firmer growth trajectory. "The UK's economic backdrop is not as anaemic as initially feared," Danske Bank strategist Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen observed.

According to the final release from S&P Global on 3 December 2025, the UK Composite PMI for November was revised up by 0.7% to 51.2 from the 21 November flash estimate of 50.5. Although this remains below both the October final reading of 52.2 and the initial market consensus of 51.8, the index has now spent seven consecutive months above the 50.0 no-change mark, confirming that UK private-sector output continues to expand. The pace of growth, however, has eased compared with the previous month, pointing to a "modest expansion, solid resilience" regime.

At the sector level, the Services PMI was revised 0.8% higher to 51.3, beating the flash 50.5 and the market call of 51.0. The Manufacturing PMI was left unrevised at 50.2, still well ahead of the 49.3 consensus. The synchronized outperformance of the two core segments provided the main underpinning for the upward revision of the headline composite gauge.

Markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed rate cut next week, a move widely seen as pressuring the USD and lifting major pairs such as GBPUSD. According to CME's FedWatch tool, futures-implied odds for a 25 bp reduction at the December FOMC, taking the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, have surged to almost 87%, up from 63% a month ago.

The latest DOL release (week ending 29 Nov.) showed initial jobless claims fell 27,000 to 191 k after seasonal adjustment—the lowest print since Sep-2022 and well below the Reuters-consensus forecast of 220,000. Although the survey window included the Thanksgiving holiday, when filings can be volatile, the sub-200,000 reading is historically low and aligns with still-muted layoff announcements, easing fears of an abrupt labour-market unwind.

The upbeat print contrasts with Wednesday's ADP report, which revealed the sharpest drop in private payrolls in 2½ years. Continuing claims (week ended 22 Nov.) edged down to 1.939 million but remain elevated, consistent with the unemployment rate's climb from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September.

Economists note that the labor market is currently in a "no-layoffs, no-hiring" stalemate. Key drivers include (i) a contraction in labor supply amid tighter immigration policy and (ii) downward pressure on demand for entry-level positions as AI adoption displaces routine tasks. Uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's trade agenda is further damping hiring sentiment, particularly among small firms.

On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD is grinding higher along EMA12, the MACD "angel-kiss" re-cross keeps bulls in charge, Bollinger bands angle up with price tipped to tag the upper band around 1.339. RSI 69, still constructive.

On the daily chart, after clearing the EMA200 and punching the upper Bollinger, the pair eyes the 1.35 platform high. MACD bullish crossover and move back above zero affirm follow-through, yet RSI 64 warns momentum may fade on the test.

Therefore, the advised trading strategy is to long-first/short-second into 1.35 resistance.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.336

Target Price: 1.29

Stop Loss: 1.35

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance Levels: 1.34/1.342/1.35

The November Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Canada fell below the growth-contraction threshold, indicating the first contraction in economic activity in six months, with concurrent weakening in employment. Seasonally adjusted data also showed a significant decline, reflecting widespread sluggishness in corporate procurement activities. Simultaneously, the auto loan default rate continues to rise, particularly among the youngest and oldest borrower demographics. Supply chain disruptions during the pandemic drove up prices for new and used vehicles, while the sharp interest rate hikes since 2022 significantly increased financing costs. Under the combined pressures of high inflation and housing cost burdens, more households are struggling to service their debt. To reduce monthly payments, many borrowers are extending loan maturities, which inadvertently elevates future financial risks; some vehicle owners now face loan balances exceeding vehicle values, increasing pressure on lenders and automakers. Amid economic and household financial stress, uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Canada trade relations further amplify risks. U.S. Trade Representative Greer revealed that President Trump may opt to withdraw from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next year, potentially negotiating bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico separately. Trump has also hinted that if the three countries cannot reach consensus during upcoming review processes, the current agreement could be allowed to expire or be subject to renegotiation, introducing additional volatility into an already fragile business and investment climate. Trade outlook uncertainties have prompted more cautious market expectations for the Canadian dollar. Some analysts suggest that if trade negotiations proceed slowly and economic recovery lacks clear momentum, the Bank of Canada may be compelled to further cut interest rates. The central bank has already lowered its policy rate to the lower bound of the neutral zone and hinted at a possible pause in rate cuts; however, given weak economic data and rising external risks, forthcoming policy decisions will be increasingly challenging.

Based on data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts has been reduced by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed's resolutely dovish stance is driven by worsening conditions in the U.S. labor market and expectations that inflation triggered by tariffs implemented under President Donald Trump will not be sustained. Despite significant declines in recent data, the overall labor market remains in a state of "stagnation": layoffs across various sectors are maintaining a relatively steady level, with recruitment efforts subdued. Reports indicate that in November, companies planned to lay off 71,321 employees, a 53% month-over-month decrease; however, total layoffs in the first eleven months of the year reached approximately 1.171 million, representing a 54% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with the technology sector particularly prominent due to integration of artificial intelligence into certain roles. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' scheduled employment report, originally set for release on Friday, was delayed until December 16 due to the government shutdown. Economists generally believe the current labor market is in a phase of neither significant layoffs nor active hiring. Factors such as reduced labor supply, AI-driven job automation, and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies are all viewed as suppressors of corporate recruitment.

In the 1W timeframe, the USDCAD exhibits a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern, with the price breaking below the EMA12. This suggests a high probability of further decline toward the EMA50 and the middle Bollinger Band, approximately around 1.392 and 1.388. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the short-term EMA12 is flattening, indicating consolidation near the EMA50. The MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum as its MACD line and signal line approach a death cross. The RSI is at 50, reflecting market indecision and indicating that the short-term correction is ongoing. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, with divergences among SMAs. After a MACD golden cross, the rebound momentum is weak, confirming bearish dominance. Support levels are near previous lows and round numbers at approximately 1.392 and 1.39. The RSI at 36 signals a pessimistic market sentiment. Therefore, it is recommended to go short before going long later.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.39

Target Price: 1.42

Stop Loss: 1.38

Support: 1.392, 1.39, 1.38

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44