Holding Firm Above 200.00 Is Just the Beginning

Forex

Summary:

The latest UK employment data shows some softness in the labor market, but recent strong economic figures continue to support the British pound.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

200.381

Entry Price

204.900

198.600

208.323 +0.079 +0.04%

2.0

Pips

Profit

198.600

200.401

Exit Price

200.381

Entry Price

204.900

Fundamentals

Released today, the UK labor market data indicates a slowdown in wage growth, a month-on-month decline in the number of people in work, and a rise in the unemployment rate to around 4.7%, with payroll numbers for the month also decreasing, signaling a cooling in employment momentum. Seemingly, the market could interpret such signs of labor market weakness as a reason for the Bank of England to adopt a more dovish policy path, which would put downward pressure on the British pound. However, deeper data also reveal that the UK's GDP still recorded moderate growth in Q2 (positive on a quarterly basis). Additionally, although wage levels have decreased, they remain above pre-pandemic trends. This reveals the Bank of England is not about to turn decisively dovish just yet, and there is still potential for its policy stance to "hold relatively high interest rates to combat inflation." In other words, while the employment weakness provides a short-term reason for a pullback, it does not necessarily invalidate the pound's long-term valuation. On the contrary, such data fluctuations often create better entry opportunities for traders willing to buy the pound with a preference for higher interest rate differentials and risk appetite.

Technical Analysis

Holding Firm Above 200.00 Is Just the Beginning_1

The daily chart shows that the closing price of GBP/JPY last Friday confirmed a firm breakout and hold above the 200.00 level. These key psychological and technical barriers are effectively breached, further opening up the upside potential for GBP/JPY.

At present, the short-term resistance for GBP/JPY lies in the 202.00-203.00 range, with stronger resistance seen between 205.00 and 208.00. The first key support zone to watch is around 199.00–199.60. Should the exchange rate break above 202.00 in the short term and hold above that level, it would technically confirm a breakout, likely triggering additional follow-up buying interest. Conversely, if the pair retraces to the 199.00–199.60 zone and holds steady there, it would present a lower-risk opportunity to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 200.30

Target price: 204.90

Stop loss: 198.60

Valid Until: September 30, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 200.00/199.00

Resistance: 202.00/203.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

On September 15th, 2025, the Finance Sector Union of Australia announced it had filed a complaint with the Fair Work Commission, urging urgent intervention regarding ANZ Group's recent plan to lay off 3,500 employees. However, the incident has had limited impact on the Australian dollar, as market attention shifts to the employment report due Thursday (employment is expected to rise by 21,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to increase by 4.2%).

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66600

Entry Price

0.63000

0.67500

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

39.4

Pips

Profit

0.63000

0.66206

Exit Price

0.66600

Entry Price

0.67500