GBPJPY traded with a mild bid on Thursday and oscillated near the two-week peak around 203.50, showing scant reaction to a batch of softer-than-expected UK macro releases.

Data published earlier showed the UK economy lost momentum in Q3, with headline GDP expanding just 0.1% QoQ—half the consensus 0.2%—fanning fears that cooling demand is tipping the economy toward stagnation. The breakdown revealed services output rose 0.2% QoQ, construction added 0.1%, while manufacturing contracted 0.5%, fully offsetting the modest gains elsewhere. Real GDP per capita was flat, underscoring the absence of any meaningful improvement in living standards.

Monthly indicators confirm a further loss of momentum in the UK economy. September GDP contracted 0.1% MoM, missing the consensus of a flat out-turn. The Ausgust was a zero printed (revised down from +0.1%), while July output was also revised to –0.1%. The September setback was driven by a 2.0% MoM slide in production, with motor-vehicle output plunging 28.6% and alone subtracting 0.17% from headline growth. By contrast, services and construction both managed a modest 0.2% MoM advance.

The data reinforce evidence of a pronounced cyclical slowdown and could push the Monetary Policy Committee to deliver an additional rate cut as early as December. Sterling, however, traded largely unchanged against the G-10 complex once the release crossed the screens.

The yen, meanwhile, derived no support from the UK figures and remains under its own weight. Reports that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has leaned on the BoJ to keep policy rates pinned to the floor have dampened already-limited expectations for a December hike, compounding selling pressure on the already-soft currency.

Intraday bias in GBPJPY remains neutrally skewed to the upside. On the topside, a break of the 204.22 resistance would confirm that the corrective leg from 205.30 has completed with a three-wave pull-back ending at 199.04. Clearance of 205.30 would then revive the larger uptrend that started from 184.53.

Conversely, a fall through the 201.36 minor support would swing the near-term bias back to the downside, targeting 199.04 and possibly lower to extend the correction.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 203.00

Target Price: 207.01

Stop Loss: 199.75

Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 202.33/201.76/200.65

Resistance Levels: 203.57/204.22/205.30

The market broadly anticipates that the Bank of England will implement a rate cut in December, posing challenges for the GBP against other major currencies. On Tuesday, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene indicated that next year's wage settlement figures exceeded expectations and expressed concerns about persistent inflation in the UK, suggesting that monetary policy may need to be further tightening. Multiple UK news outlets reported on Wednesday that Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains vigilant in the face of potential leadership challenges. While Health Secretary Wesley Streeting denied rumors of a conspiracy to overthrow the Prime Minister, the political turbulence has nonetheless impacted market sentiment. ING's Head of Research, Chris Turner, noted that "the ongoing weakness of the pound is indeed linked to the Starmer rumors. In the context of the upcoming fiscal budget, the pound is required to carry additional risk premiums." Economic indicators remain subdued. Labor market data released on Tuesday showed a slight increase in the UK unemployment rate to 5%, while wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 4.6% over the three months ending in September. These figures reinforce market expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December, with current market pricing indicating approximately a 75% probability. As the November 26 budget approaches, market anxiety continues to escalate. Previous plans to cut welfare spending and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of declining productivity have worsened the fiscal outlook, leading to expectations of tax hikes to balance public finances. Despite the pound's year-to-date appreciation of 5% against the dollar, recent price action has been notably pressured.

Due to market optimism that the U.S. government shutdown is likely to conclude this week, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, exerting pressure on the GBPUSD currency pair. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives approved a funding bill with a vote of 222 in favor and 209 against, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The legislation is now set to be signed into law by President Donald Trump. Earlier this week, Trump publicly supported this bipartisan agreement aimed at ending the deadlock. Once enacted, a series of upcoming economic data releases are anticipated, with the exception of October's inflation and employment reports, which White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated are unlikely to be published this month. The U.S. dollar also received support from hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, reducing the likelihood of a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool indicates the market prices in nearly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in December, down from 67% the previous day. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic addressed economic prospects on Wednesday at the Atlanta Economic Club, warning that premature monetary policy loosening could fuel inflation, although he also noted that a sharp downturn in the labor market in the near term appears unlikely.

In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD is oscillating around the Bollinger Middle Band, with the MACD's MACD line and signal line approaching the zero-axis. If a golden cross occurs again, there is a high probability that the price will ascend towards the key resistance levels at 1.32 to 1.326. The RSI stands at 49, indicating a cautious market sentiment and the potential for a trend reversal. In the 1D timeframe, the price has been trending downward along the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting a short-term correction back towards the Bollinger Middle Band, approximately 1.324. Following a golden cross in the MACD, the MACD line and signal line are currently retracing toward the zero-axis, but still have some distance to cover, implying that the rebound is incomplete. The RSI at 39 reflects ongoing bearish sentiment, and overall, the short-term rebound has not yet reached its conclusion. Therefore, it is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.315

Target Price: 1.33

Stop Loss: 1.3

Support: 1.3, 1.29, 1.28

Resistance: 1.32, 1.33, 1.36

The EUR/USD pair retreated modestly from two-week highs near 1.1630, trading around 1.1615 at the time of writing, as investors digested a cocktail of contrasting macroeconomic signals. The euro’s resilience came despite lackluster data from the Eurozone and uncertainty surrounding the delayed release of key U.S. economic reports due to the now-ended government shutdown.

A positive risk mood helped cushion the single currency’s downside, with markets finding relief in the end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which had cast a shadow over global risk appetite. President Donald Trump’s signing of the bill to reopen the government allowed markets to breathe a sigh of relief, restoring some clarity to an otherwise data-starved trading environment. The move is expected to free a backlog of U.S. macroeconomic indicators that were frozen during the shutdown, although the White House has hinted that some crucial reports, including October’s employment and inflation figures, may never be released.

From a European standpoint, however, optimism remains tempered. Eurozone Industrial Production data released earlier in the day disappointed market expectations, revealing the fragility of the bloc’s manufacturing sector. Output rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a modest rebound from the upwardly revised 1.1% contraction in August, but still well short of the 0.7% growth economists had forecast. On an annual basis, industrial activity expanded 1.2%, undershooting projections of a 2.1% increase, and signaling that the region’s industrial base continues to grapple with sluggish demand and high borrowing costs.

The euro’s muted reaction to the data underscores that the macro narrative remains dominated by U.S. developments, particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the lingering uncertainty around delayed data releases. Market participants continue to parse comments from Fed officials, who remain divided over the path forward. On Wednesday, Governor Stephen Miran reiterated calls for additional rate cuts to support the economy, arguing that inflation remains subdued and policy tightening has gone too far. In contrast, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a more cautious tone, suggesting that inflationary pressures could re-emerge and that the labor market, though cooling, remains fundamentally sound.

These diverging policy views have left traders in limbo, keeping the U.S. dollar’s trajectory tied to expectations for future Fed action. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to be the highlight of the trading day, but with no clarity on its release due to administrative delays, investors instead turned their focus to potential Fed commentary and the Monthly Budget Statement for clues on the central bank’s next moves.

Despite macro headwinds, technical indicators for EUR/USD remain broadly supportive. The pair recently broke through the key resistance level at 1.1595, confirming short-term bullish momentum and suggesting that the currency could target higher resistance zones near 1.1650 and 1.1680 in the sessions ahead. Price action continues to hold above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) — a bullish signal — while the overall structure suggests buyers remain in control despite intermittent pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, hints at possible near-term exhaustion, signaling that upside momentum could face hurdles if sentiment shifts or if the dollar regains strength.

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1615

STOP LOSS: 1.1570

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1680

During Thursday's European session, gold extended its rally for a third consecutive day and printed a three-week high. Bullion pierced the $2,040 level after President Trump signed a spending bill that ended the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, a closure that had sidelined key Fed data releases. Also, broad-based dollar selling provided an additional tail-wind for the gold.

Markets are wagering that, once the data flow resumes, a softer U.S. economic outlook will justify additional rate cuts, a scenario that benefits non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, dissension within the FOMC persists, with several officials favouring a pause in the easing cycle to keep inflation in check. Supported by robust central-bank demand and investors hedging against rising fiscal risk in major economies, gold futures have advanced more than 60% year-to-date.

During the European session on Thursday, gold extended its rally for a third consecutive day and printed a three-week high. Around the $2,240 zone, bulls are running into a double-barreled ceiling: the weekly open/close pivot of 13-20 Oct; the descending trend-line, triggering an immediate wave of selling pressure. With limited follow-through momentum, gold's upside appears increasingly constrained. Therefore, chasing longs at current levels offers an unfavorable risk/reward and warrants a cautious stance.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4254

Target Price: 4115

Stop Loss: 4289

Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4208/4178/4149

Resistance: 4244/4250/4264

According to the latest monthly report released by OPEC on November 12, the fundamental outlook of the global oil market has experienced a significant shift, becoming the primary driver behind today's WTI crude oil price movements. The most notable revision in the report pertains to the Q3 2025 global oil market assessment, which was sharply adjusted from a previous forecast of a supply deficit of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. This near one million barrel per day reversal suggests the market may be transitioning from a tightening phase to a structurally oversupplied regime, exerting substantial downward pressure on oil prices. The primary reasons for this revision include higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil production and increased supply from OPEC member countries, resulting in a more ample global supply cushion.

This fundamental shift in outlook has rapidly transmitted to market prices. Following the report's publication, market sentiment was immediately undermined, and WTI futures plummeted by over 4%, briefly falling below US$59 per barrel. This sharp decline broke the nearly three-week consolidation pattern on technical charts, generating a clear downside breakout signal, which quickly shifted short-term market sentiment toward bearishness.

OPEC's report also highlights that, even with the planned suspension of output increases by the OPEC+ coalition in Q1 2026, a modest global supply surplus may still occur, further reinforcing expectations of medium-term market adequacy. Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 30, seeking indications of whether the organization will adopt new production policies to address the prevailing surplus situation.

In the 1D timeframe, the large bearish candlestick yesterday broke the nearly three-week sideways consolidation in crude oil prices, signifying a bearish breakout and a shift to a downtrend. The breach of the November 6 low at US$58.74 has opened the downward momentum toward US$56.00.

Currently, the primary support level below WTI is at US$56.00, with a more significant support at US$55.00. A breakdown below US$55.00 could further expand the downside potential. Conversely, if the price can stabilize within this support zone and form a clear bullish candlestick pattern, it could trigger a technical rebound, testing resistance range between US$60.00 and US$62.00.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 58.65

Target Price: 55.20

Stop Loss: 60.10

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 58.16, 56.00

Resistance: 58.97, 60.00

The downside potential for the USD/CAD currency pair may be limited. Minutes from the Bank of Canada's meeting on Wednesday revealed that the Governing Council chose to disregard volatile annual inflation data ahead of the October 29th interest rate decision, instead focusing on underlying inflation indicators to better gauge the overall inflation trend. This approach is believed to provide a more reliable signal. At its last meeting, the central bank lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, signaling that this might be the final rate cut for the near term, as monetary policy support for the economy is approaching its limit. Committee members acknowledged that the impact of the government's sales tax cuts and the removal of the consumer carbon tax last year would cause temporary fluctuations in year-over-year inflation changes, hence the focus on underlying indicators. In September 2024, the annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%, primarily due to a smaller year-over-year decline in gasoline prices. The central bank expects inflation to remain around 2% over the next two years, at the midpoint of its 1% to 3% target range. The current interest rate is already at the lower bound of the neutral range and has a stimulating effect on economic growth. The Governing Council unanimously agreed that monetary policy support has nearly reached its maximum limit. Governor Tiff Macklem stated that further measures would be taken if the economy shows significant weakness. Although there were differing views on the timing of the rate cut, the October reduction was well justified given factors such as excess supply, a weak labor market, sluggish economic growth in the second half of the year, and stable inflation expectations. Committee members also expressed concern that labor market weakness could persist or even widen, linked to U.S. tariff policies, trade uncertainties, and immigration restrictions that are slowing population growth and reducing the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment levels.

With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market sentiment has improved, which may lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar, potentially boosting the USD/CAD pair. Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump signed a government funding bill on Thursday, officially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The bill mandates the restoration of government operations and calls for direct payments for healthcare to individuals. Additionally, the U.S. dollar may find support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have dropped to nearly 60%, down from 67% the previous day. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, spoke on economic trends at the Atlanta Economics Club on Wednesday. Bostic warned that easing monetary policy too early could feed the 'inflation beast'. He also noted that a sharp downturn in the labor market is unlikely in the near term.

Based on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the short-term EMA12 flattening. The price is oscillating near the Bollinger Middle Band, and the MACD uptrend momentum has weakened, with the MACD and the signal lines pulling back toward the zero axis again. There is a high probability that the price will stabilize near the EMA50, around 1.397. The RSI value is at 50, indicating a market in a wait-and-see state, awaiting a directional breakout. Regarding the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are also narrowing. The MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero axis, and the price has stabilized and rebounded near the EMA200. There is a high likelihood of further upward movement toward the Bollinger Middle or Upper Band, at 1.404 and 1.408, respectively. The RSI value is at 40, suggesting the market remains in a pessimistic sentiment. Therefore, buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.401

Target price: 1.44

Stop loss: 1.38

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.41/1.42/1.44