Gold (XAU/USD) extended its impressive advance on Thursday, climbing decisively above the $4,200 psychological threshold and marking its fifth consecutive daily gain. The precious metal, often viewed as the ultimate safe-haven asset, has now recovered nearly all the ground lost during its recent corrective pullback from the record high of $4,381 set earlier this year. At the time of writing, gold trades near $4,235 per ounce, up more than 5.5% for the week, with its bullish momentum showing few signs of fatigue.

The renewed strength in gold comes against a backdrop of improving risk sentiment in global markets following the U.S. government’s decision to end its historic shutdown. While the resolution was initially expected to dampen demand for safe-haven assets, it has done little to slow gold’s ascent. Instead, traders have shifted their attention toward a wave of delayed U.S. economic data releases — reports that could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory heading into year-end.

The market narrative continues to be dominated by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut in December. Recent statements from key policymakers have suggested a willingness to provide further accommodation should economic momentum falter under the weight of high borrowing costs. The anticipated rate cut has pressured the U.S. Dollar, pushing it lower across the board, while simultaneously keeping Treasury yields subdued.

For gold, this combination of a weaker dollar and lower yields is a potent cocktail. As a non-yielding asset, gold tends to benefit when real returns on U.S. bonds decline, making it relatively more attractive to investors seeking stability and long-term value preservation. The latest move above $4,200 reflects not only technical strength but also deepening market conviction that the Fed’s tightening cycle is effectively over.

Beyond monetary policy, broader macroeconomic trends continue to favor gold. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty — from ongoing trade disputes to the fragility of global growth — remains a key driver of demand. Moreover, with inflation expectations still elevated and the U.S. fiscal picture deteriorating due to prolonged government spending, many investors are seeking protection from potential currency debasement and policy missteps.

The upcoming wave of U.S. economic reports — including retail sales, CPI, and labor market data — will be crucial in determining whether the Fed’s dovish tilt gains further traction. Any sign of economic cooling is likely to reinforce the case for rate cuts, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher in gold.

From a technical perspective, gold’s price action continues to exhibit remarkable strength. The metal has maintained its position above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a key dynamic support zone that has underpinned the broader bullish structure since mid-year. The short-term trend remains decisively upward, supported by a minor bullish wave pattern visible on intraday charts.

Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain in overbought territory, yet they continue to flash positive signals — a reflection of sustained buying interest rather than exhaustion. Traders should, however, keep a close eye on the immediate support zone around the $4,220–$4,200 area. A firm hold above this range will likely confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, paving the way for a retest of the $4,300–$4,381 resistance zone — and potentially, a fresh all-time high.

Conversely, a decisive break below $4,200 could trigger a brief technical correction, but given the current macro setup, any dip is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reversal signal.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4210

STOP LOSS: 4180

TAKE PROFIT: 4381

GBPJPY traded with a mild bid on Thursday and oscillated near the two-week peak around 203.50, showing scant reaction to a batch of softer-than-expected UK macro releases.

Data published earlier showed the UK economy lost momentum in Q3, with headline GDP expanding just 0.1% QoQ—half the consensus 0.2%—fanning fears that cooling demand is tipping the economy toward stagnation. The breakdown revealed services output rose 0.2% QoQ, construction added 0.1%, while manufacturing contracted 0.5%, fully offsetting the modest gains elsewhere. Real GDP per capita was flat, underscoring the absence of any meaningful improvement in living standards.

Monthly indicators confirm a further loss of momentum in the UK economy. September GDP contracted 0.1% MoM, missing the consensus of a flat out-turn. The Ausgust was a zero printed (revised down from +0.1%), while July output was also revised to –0.1%. The September setback was driven by a 2.0% MoM slide in production, with motor-vehicle output plunging 28.6% and alone subtracting 0.17% from headline growth. By contrast, services and construction both managed a modest 0.2% MoM advance.

The data reinforce evidence of a pronounced cyclical slowdown and could push the Monetary Policy Committee to deliver an additional rate cut as early as December. Sterling, however, traded largely unchanged against the G-10 complex once the release crossed the screens.

The yen, meanwhile, derived no support from the UK figures and remains under its own weight. Reports that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has leaned on the BoJ to keep policy rates pinned to the floor have dampened already-limited expectations for a December hike, compounding selling pressure on the already-soft currency.

Intraday bias in GBPJPY remains neutrally skewed to the upside. On the topside, a break of the 204.22 resistance would confirm that the corrective leg from 205.30 has completed with a three-wave pull-back ending at 199.04. Clearance of 205.30 would then revive the larger uptrend that started from 184.53.

Conversely, a fall through the 201.36 minor support would swing the near-term bias back to the downside, targeting 199.04 and possibly lower to extend the correction.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 203.00

Target Price: 207.01

Stop Loss: 199.75

Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 202.33/201.76/200.65

Resistance Levels: 203.57/204.22/205.30

The market broadly anticipates that the Bank of England will implement a rate cut in December, posing challenges for the GBP against other major currencies. On Tuesday, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene indicated that next year's wage settlement figures exceeded expectations and expressed concerns about persistent inflation in the UK, suggesting that monetary policy may need to be further tightening. Multiple UK news outlets reported on Wednesday that Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains vigilant in the face of potential leadership challenges. While Health Secretary Wesley Streeting denied rumors of a conspiracy to overthrow the Prime Minister, the political turbulence has nonetheless impacted market sentiment. ING's Head of Research, Chris Turner, noted that "the ongoing weakness of the pound is indeed linked to the Starmer rumors. In the context of the upcoming fiscal budget, the pound is required to carry additional risk premiums." Economic indicators remain subdued. Labor market data released on Tuesday showed a slight increase in the UK unemployment rate to 5%, while wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 4.6% over the three months ending in September. These figures reinforce market expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December, with current market pricing indicating approximately a 75% probability. As the November 26 budget approaches, market anxiety continues to escalate. Previous plans to cut welfare spending and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of declining productivity have worsened the fiscal outlook, leading to expectations of tax hikes to balance public finances. Despite the pound's year-to-date appreciation of 5% against the dollar, recent price action has been notably pressured.

Due to market optimism that the U.S. government shutdown is likely to conclude this week, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, exerting pressure on the GBPUSD currency pair. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives approved a funding bill with a vote of 222 in favor and 209 against, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The legislation is now set to be signed into law by President Donald Trump. Earlier this week, Trump publicly supported this bipartisan agreement aimed at ending the deadlock. Once enacted, a series of upcoming economic data releases are anticipated, with the exception of October's inflation and employment reports, which White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated are unlikely to be published this month. The U.S. dollar also received support from hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, reducing the likelihood of a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool indicates the market prices in nearly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in December, down from 67% the previous day. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic addressed economic prospects on Wednesday at the Atlanta Economic Club, warning that premature monetary policy loosening could fuel inflation, although he also noted that a sharp downturn in the labor market in the near term appears unlikely.

In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD is oscillating around the Bollinger Middle Band, with the MACD's MACD line and signal line approaching the zero-axis. If a golden cross occurs again, there is a high probability that the price will ascend towards the key resistance levels at 1.32 to 1.326. The RSI stands at 49, indicating a cautious market sentiment and the potential for a trend reversal. In the 1D timeframe, the price has been trending downward along the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting a short-term correction back towards the Bollinger Middle Band, approximately 1.324. Following a golden cross in the MACD, the MACD line and signal line are currently retracing toward the zero-axis, but still have some distance to cover, implying that the rebound is incomplete. The RSI at 39 reflects ongoing bearish sentiment, and overall, the short-term rebound has not yet reached its conclusion. Therefore, it is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.315

Target Price: 1.33

Stop Loss: 1.3

Support: 1.3, 1.29, 1.28

Resistance: 1.32, 1.33, 1.36

The EUR/USD pair retreated modestly from two-week highs near 1.1630, trading around 1.1615 at the time of writing, as investors digested a cocktail of contrasting macroeconomic signals. The euro’s resilience came despite lackluster data from the Eurozone and uncertainty surrounding the delayed release of key U.S. economic reports due to the now-ended government shutdown.

A positive risk mood helped cushion the single currency’s downside, with markets finding relief in the end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which had cast a shadow over global risk appetite. President Donald Trump’s signing of the bill to reopen the government allowed markets to breathe a sigh of relief, restoring some clarity to an otherwise data-starved trading environment. The move is expected to free a backlog of U.S. macroeconomic indicators that were frozen during the shutdown, although the White House has hinted that some crucial reports, including October’s employment and inflation figures, may never be released.

From a European standpoint, however, optimism remains tempered. Eurozone Industrial Production data released earlier in the day disappointed market expectations, revealing the fragility of the bloc’s manufacturing sector. Output rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a modest rebound from the upwardly revised 1.1% contraction in August, but still well short of the 0.7% growth economists had forecast. On an annual basis, industrial activity expanded 1.2%, undershooting projections of a 2.1% increase, and signaling that the region’s industrial base continues to grapple with sluggish demand and high borrowing costs.

The euro’s muted reaction to the data underscores that the macro narrative remains dominated by U.S. developments, particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the lingering uncertainty around delayed data releases. Market participants continue to parse comments from Fed officials, who remain divided over the path forward. On Wednesday, Governor Stephen Miran reiterated calls for additional rate cuts to support the economy, arguing that inflation remains subdued and policy tightening has gone too far. In contrast, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a more cautious tone, suggesting that inflationary pressures could re-emerge and that the labor market, though cooling, remains fundamentally sound.

These diverging policy views have left traders in limbo, keeping the U.S. dollar’s trajectory tied to expectations for future Fed action. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to be the highlight of the trading day, but with no clarity on its release due to administrative delays, investors instead turned their focus to potential Fed commentary and the Monthly Budget Statement for clues on the central bank’s next moves.

Despite macro headwinds, technical indicators for EUR/USD remain broadly supportive. The pair recently broke through the key resistance level at 1.1595, confirming short-term bullish momentum and suggesting that the currency could target higher resistance zones near 1.1650 and 1.1680 in the sessions ahead. Price action continues to hold above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) — a bullish signal — while the overall structure suggests buyers remain in control despite intermittent pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, hints at possible near-term exhaustion, signaling that upside momentum could face hurdles if sentiment shifts or if the dollar regains strength.

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1615

STOP LOSS: 1.1570

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1680

During Thursday's European session, gold extended its rally for a third consecutive day and printed a three-week high. Bullion pierced the $2,040 level after President Trump signed a spending bill that ended the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, a closure that had sidelined key Fed data releases. Also, broad-based dollar selling provided an additional tail-wind for the gold.

Markets are wagering that, once the data flow resumes, a softer U.S. economic outlook will justify additional rate cuts, a scenario that benefits non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, dissension within the FOMC persists, with several officials favouring a pause in the easing cycle to keep inflation in check. Supported by robust central-bank demand and investors hedging against rising fiscal risk in major economies, gold futures have advanced more than 60% year-to-date.

During the European session on Thursday, gold extended its rally for a third consecutive day and printed a three-week high. Around the $2,240 zone, bulls are running into a double-barreled ceiling: the weekly open/close pivot of 13-20 Oct; the descending trend-line, triggering an immediate wave of selling pressure. With limited follow-through momentum, gold's upside appears increasingly constrained. Therefore, chasing longs at current levels offers an unfavorable risk/reward and warrants a cautious stance.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4254

Target Price: 4115

Stop Loss: 4289

Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4208/4178/4149

Resistance: 4244/4250/4264

According to the latest monthly report released by OPEC on November 12, the fundamental outlook of the global oil market has experienced a significant shift, becoming the primary driver behind today's WTI crude oil price movements. The most notable revision in the report pertains to the Q3 2025 global oil market assessment, which was sharply adjusted from a previous forecast of a supply deficit of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. This near one million barrel per day reversal suggests the market may be transitioning from a tightening phase to a structurally oversupplied regime, exerting substantial downward pressure on oil prices. The primary reasons for this revision include higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil production and increased supply from OPEC member countries, resulting in a more ample global supply cushion.

This fundamental shift in outlook has rapidly transmitted to market prices. Following the report's publication, market sentiment was immediately undermined, and WTI futures plummeted by over 4%, briefly falling below US$59 per barrel. This sharp decline broke the nearly three-week consolidation pattern on technical charts, generating a clear downside breakout signal, which quickly shifted short-term market sentiment toward bearishness.

OPEC's report also highlights that, even with the planned suspension of output increases by the OPEC+ coalition in Q1 2026, a modest global supply surplus may still occur, further reinforcing expectations of medium-term market adequacy. Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 30, seeking indications of whether the organization will adopt new production policies to address the prevailing surplus situation.

In the 1D timeframe, the large bearish candlestick yesterday broke the nearly three-week sideways consolidation in crude oil prices, signifying a bearish breakout and a shift to a downtrend. The breach of the November 6 low at US$58.74 has opened the downward momentum toward US$56.00.

Currently, the primary support level below WTI is at US$56.00, with a more significant support at US$55.00. A breakdown below US$55.00 could further expand the downside potential. Conversely, if the price can stabilize within this support zone and form a clear bullish candlestick pattern, it could trigger a technical rebound, testing resistance range between US$60.00 and US$62.00.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 58.65

Target Price: 55.20

Stop Loss: 60.10

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 58.16, 56.00

Resistance: 58.97, 60.00