GBP/JPY Holds Near Five-Month High as BoJ Tightening Bets Intensify

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

GBP/JPY steadied near multi-month highs on Thursday as traders balanced renewed BoJ tightening expectations against uncertainty surrounding the UK’s monetary outlook, while technical signals continued to favor further upside unless a sharp corrective decline emerges.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

206.900

Entry Price

210.000

204.500

207.086 -0.014 -0.01%

13.4

Pips

Profit

204.500

207.034

Exit Price

206.900

Entry Price

210.000

The GBP/JPY cross stabilized on Thursday after an early Asian-session decline, keeping the pair within close reach of its strongest level since July 2024. Although spot prices drifted modestly lower—trading just under the 207.00 handle and down around 0.10% on the day—the broader market tone still leaned in favor of sterling bulls, with traders largely unwilling to abandon a rally that has been gaining momentum for weeks.

The Japanese Yen showed signs of life as speculation intensified that Tokyo may intervene once again to counter persistent currency weakness. Markets remain sensitive to any hint of government action after authorities stepped in several times earlier this year. The threat of renewed intervention, combined with a shift toward a more hawkish stance at the Bank of Japan, helped fuel a mild intraday pullback in GBP/JPY.

Comments from BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi added to expectations that the central bank is preparing to continue unwinding its ultra-loose stance. Noguchi reiterated that if economic and price conditions evolve in line with forecasts, the BoJ will “gradually adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.” The remarks echoed a growing chorus within the central bank signaling a readiness to normalize policy sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, Japan’s latest Services Producer Price Index—the gauge closely watched for signs of cost-push inflation—suggested that inflation is moving closer to sustainably meeting the BoJ’s 2% target. That reading strengthens the argument for an interest-rate hike as soon as December, marking a stark contrast to the policy direction expected in the UK.

Yet, despite increasing expectations of a BoJ move, the yen remains weighed down by broader risk-on sentiment and deepening anxieties over Japan’s fiscal trajectory. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus posture has stirred renewed criticism from lawmakers and analysts who warn that ballooning public debt could undermine long-term financial stability. Those concerns keep the yen’s safe-haven appeal limited, allowing GBP/JPY to hold firm even when Japanese rates prospects turn more hawkish.

Sterling, by comparison, continues to derive support from this week’s UK budget unveiling, which surprised markets by revealing a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer. The government’s improved financial position has bolstered confidence in Britain’s near-term economic resilience, helping to cushion the pound against external pressures.

However, traders are becoming increasingly wary of the Bank of England’s policy trajectory. Markets now price in a strong likelihood of a BoE rate cut as early as next month—a notable divergence from the more hawkish path investors expect from the BoJ. That policy split could limit the upside potential for GBP/JPY over the medium term, even as the near-term bias remains tilted toward further gains.

The focus now turns to Friday’s release of Tokyo’s latest consumer inflation data, a critical input for the BoJ’s December meeting. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for a rate hike and generate additional volatility in yen pairs.

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY continues to trade with a pronounced bullish tone after breaking decisively above the 206.00 level earlier in the week. The pair has since extended its advance toward the 206.90–207.20 zone, a region that markets are currently treating as the next key resistance cluster.

The stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought territory, but instead of signaling exhaustion, it appears to be reinforcing the potential for another bullish wave. Should momentum continue to build, the pair could test the upper boundary of the established ascending channel, with 207.65 emerging as the near-term upside target.

However, the bullish scenario would be challenged if the pair stages a sharp corrective decline. A break below 205.20—considered the crucial intraday support—would weaken upward momentum and activate a bearish correction.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 206.90

STOP LOSS: 204.50

TAKE PROFIT: 210.00

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

AUD/USD climbs toward 0.6530 as strong Australian investment data and sticky inflation strengthen RBA hawkishness, while growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut weigh heavily on the U.S. Dollar.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65300

Entry Price

0.65800

0.64900

0.66360 -0.00023 -0.03%

18.0

Pips

Profit

0.64900

0.65480

Exit Price

0.65300

Entry Price

0.65800

AUD/USD advanced on Thursday, trading around 0.6525 and extending its modest daily gains as diverging policy expectations between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to dominate market sentiment. The pair rose roughly 0.12% on the day, building on a week of steady upside momentum as investors increasingly position for a softer U.S. interest-rate path.

The latest catalyst fueling the Australian Dollar’s climb came from surprisingly strong domestic data. Australia’s third-quarter private capital expenditure surged by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, almost triple what economists had penciled in. For markets, this signals that business confidence remains more resilient than anticipated despite higher borrowing costs. It also suggests investment momentum is returning to sectors beyond mining, adding another layer of robustness to Australia’s economic outlook.

This was reinforced by the country’s first full monthly CPI reading, which revealed that headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year in October. That print not only beat expectations but also served as a reminder that inflation remains uncomfortably high for an RBA that has repeatedly emphasized the risk of entrenched price pressures. While unemployment has edged slightly higher, policymakers have argued the labor market remains tight enough to prevent any immediate talk of rate cuts.

As a result, markets widely expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 3.6% in December, sticking to a wait-and-see stance rather than joining global peers in signaling easing. From my perspective, the RBA’s cautious rhetoric has been justified; inflation is proving stubborn, and the central bank simply cannot afford to prematurely lower its guard.

The same cannot be said for the Federal Reserve, where expectations have shifted decisively toward a near-term pivot. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign over an 84% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December — a dramatic increase from only a week ago. The market reaction has been swift: U.S. Treasury yields have softened, and the dollar has retreated as investors increasingly embrace the idea that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle.

Contributing to this sentiment are several dovish-leaning remarks from key Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Both suggested recent inflation progress was encouraging and hinted that policymakers could soon shift their focus toward supporting growth. Even though U.S. data has been mixed — with Initial Jobless Claims improving but Retail Sales softening and Consumer Confidence falling sharply — the market has interpreted the overall theme as one of cooling demand and diminishing inflation risks.

For currency traders, the policy divergence is unmistakable. A firm RBA and a Fed inching closer to a rate cut have created a supportive environment for the Australian Dollar. Unless U.S. data surprises significantly to the upside, this gap is likely to widen, favoring further AUD strength in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD has broken above the 0.6525 resistance level — a key 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous short-term downtrend from 0.6628 to 0.6422. The breakout indicates improving bullish momentum, especially as price action remains supported above the EMA50, underscoring strong dynamic support.

Momentum oscillators are flashing constructive signals as well. Despite entering overbought territory, the Relative Strength Index continues to print higher highs, reflecting persistent buying interest. A sustained hold above 0.6525 could open the door toward the next resistance zone at 0.6560–0.6580, while immediate support lies at 0.6485.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6530

STOP LOSS: 0.6490

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6580

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday but signaled limited scope for further easing. The EURNZD's decline encountered resistance following the RBNZ's policy adjustment, with further downside expected to be quite limited.

BUY EURNZD

EXP

TRADING

2.03188

Entry Price

2.08630

2.00530

2.01433 -0.00118 -0.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2.00530

Exit Price

2.03188

Entry Price

2.08630

Fundamentals

On Wednesday, the EURNZD weakened, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut and rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. However, the asset's decline encountered resistance near 2.0335 and subsequently paused. As widely anticipated, the RBNZ cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, but the tone of its statement proved more hawkish than market expectations.

Policy makers revealed that they had debated whether to keep the interest rate unchanged at 2.50% or lower it to 2.25%, ultimately deciding by a 5-1 vote. The sole dissenting member supported maintaining the rate, highlighting concerns among some policymakers about overly accommodative policies and reflecting a more cautious internal balance than many had anticipated.

For the market, more importantly, the RBNZ's updated forward guidance signals a more determined policy path. The bank now projects the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bottom out at 2.2% in 2026 before gradually rising to 2.7% by the end of 2027. Should the economic outlook remain unchanged, this trajectory implies minimal scope for further rate cuts next year and effectively signals that today's move may mark the end of the easing cycle.

The accompanying statement further reinforced this message. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that economic activity will remain subdued until mid-2025 but is currently improving, with lower interest rates supporting household spending and the labor market stabilizing. The decline in the exchange rate has also boosted exporters' revenues, thereby reducing the need for more aggressive stimulus measures in the future. At present, risks to the inflation outlook are considered “balanced.”

RBNZ's Rate Cut Takes Effect, Limiting EURNZD's Upside Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the EURNZD is encountering significant resistance near the 2.0406 level, while initial buying support exists within the 2.0330–2.0360 range below. Prices continue to consolidate at elevated levels in the near term, though lacking the momentum for a decisive breakout.

If future data does not show a clear directional shift, prices are likely to fluctuate within the 2.0350–2.0450 range before resuming their upward trend.

The market currently holds relatively clear expectations regarding New Zealand's interest rate path, while the euro's macroeconomic backdrop remains relatively subdued. This makes it difficult for the EURNZD to develop a clear trend in the short term. With a lack of macroeconomic direction, range trading is likely to become the dominant pattern.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2.0320

Target Price: 2.0863

Stop Loss: 2.0053

Valid Until: December 12, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2.0271, 2.0077, 2.0004

Resistance: 2.0680, 2.0753, 2.0850

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

WTI crude oil extends losses amid optimism over a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal, raising concerns about renewed oversupply in the global oil market.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

58.000

Entry Price

55.000

59.500

59.459 -0.350 -0.59%

150.0

Pips

Loss

55.000

59.519

Exit Price

58.000

Entry Price

59.500

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continued to slide on Wednesday, trading around $57.80 per barrel during European hours, marking its second consecutive session of losses. The decline follows a 1.70% drop in the previous session, driven largely by growing optimism over a potential resolution to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Market attention has been focused on statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who indicated his willingness to advance discussions on a US-backed plan aimed at ending the war. Zelenskiy emphasized his readiness to negotiate remaining contentious issues with US President Donald Trump and key European allies, signaling a possible breakthrough that could reshape global energy markets.

Analysts suggest that a peace agreement could trigger the easing of Western sanctions on Russian oil producers, including major players such as Rosneft and Lukoil. Since the imposition of sanctions, Russian crude exports have been heavily restricted, contributing to tight flows and elevated oil prices. A relaxation of these measures could flood the market with additional supply, intensifying concerns over global oversupply, particularly as output from other major producers has already pushed production above demand.

Commerzbank highlighted that sanctions and restrictions have led some Indian refiners to cut their intake of Russian oil, which in turn has lowered exports and increased crude volumes held in floating storage. If sanctions were lifted, these stored barrels could quickly re-enter the market, further weighing on prices.

Despite the bearish sentiment from geopolitical developments, recent US inventory data has offered mixed signals for traders. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.9 million barrel draw in US crude oil stocks for the week ending November 21, 2025, following a 4.4 million barrel build in the prior week. This marked the first inventory reduction after three consecutive weekly increases, providing only a limited cushion against broader bearish pressures in the market.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude has faced growing downward pressure. In intraday trading, prices tested a minor bearish trend on the short-term charts, exacerbated by trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). Additionally, relative strength indicators (RSI) are showing overlapping negative signals, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading and that further declines may be imminent.

If the current support level around $57.00 is breached, WTI could move toward $56.00 per barrel. A breakdown below $56.00 would open the door to further losses, potentially testing $55.00 in the near term. Traders and investors are closely watching these technical levels alongside geopolitical developments, as the interplay of both factors is likely to dictate short-term market direction.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 58.00

STOP LOSS: 59.50

TAKE PROFIT: 55.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar advanced against the US Dollar on Wednesday, driven by a hawkish rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.

BUY NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.56800

Entry Price

0.57900

0.55900

0.57822 +0.00068 +0.12%

34.1

Pips

Profit

0.55900

0.57141

Exit Price

0.56800

Entry Price

0.57900

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened against its US counterpart on Wednesday, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) implemented a “hawkish cut” to its official cash rate (OCR) and markets speculated further easing from the US Federal Reserve later this year. The NZD/USD pair rose sharply following the RBNZ announcement, touching a session high near 0.5690 before retracing to sub-0.5670 levels amid profit-taking in European trading.

The RBNZ lowered its OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the lowest level in three years. While the cut aligned with market expectations, the central bank’s accompanying statement emphasized that the easing cycle may be nearing its end, citing improving economic conditions in New Zealand. “Further OCR adjustments will be contingent on medium-term inflation trajectories and the broader economic outlook,” the bank noted. Looking ahead, the RBNZ projected the cash rate to average 2.20% in the first quarter of 2026 and to reach 2.65% by the end of 2027, suggesting a measured return to normalization over the medium term.

The announcement provided a significant boost to the Kiwi, which rallied across the board against major currencies. At its peak, NZD/USD gained as much as 1.4% before consolidating. Traders interpreted the RBNZ’s approach as dovish in terms of immediate cuts but hawkish in signaling the likely end of monetary easing, reinforcing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar.

The US Dollar, by contrast, remained under pressure amid a series of soft domestic data releases. September’s delayed Retail Sales report fell short of expectations, producer prices remained largely flat, and consumer confidence declined, with households expressing concern over rising costs and deteriorating labor market prospects. These indicators suggest that the US economy is experiencing a soft patch, bolstering market expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in December.

Market participants are now closely monitoring upcoming US economic releases for further clues on monetary policy. Durable Goods Orders, an advanced gauge of manufacturing activity, are expected to show a slowdown in September, while weekly jobless claims may edge higher, potentially adding further downside pressure on the Greenback.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD showed positive momentum on intraday charts, breaking a minor bearish trend line and surpassing the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50).

The pair reached the key resistance zone near 0.5690, supported by strengthening relative strength indicators (RSI), even as these indicators suggest overbought conditions.

Short-term consolidation or a mild retracement below 0.5670 cannot be ruled out before the pair attempts another leg higher. We will likely watch 0.5690 as an immediate barrier, with a break above this level potentially opening the door to 0.5790 in the medium term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5680

STOP LOSS: 0.5590

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5790

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher amid growing market optimism for a dovish Federal Reserve, supported by weaker U.S. economic data, though cautious sentiment persists due to potential reduced safe-haven demand.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4154.95

Entry Price

4250.00

4090.00

4209.53 +11.62 +0.28%

145.2

Pips

Profit

4090.00

4169.47

Exit Price

4154.95

Entry Price

4250.00

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as investors recalibrated their expectations for U.S. monetary policy, with XAU/USD trading around $4,171, approaching two-week highs after closing nearly flat on Tuesday. The precious metal has been underpinned by growing optimism that the Federal Reserve may adopt a softer policy stance in the coming months, even as global geopolitical dynamics continue to influence investor positioning.

Market attention has been sharply focused on developments surrounding the Federal Reserve chairship. White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate for the role, according to recent reports. Hassett’s potential elevation is being interpreted as a dovish signal by traders, given his history of advocating for interest rate reductions to stimulate economic growth. The possibility of a leadership change has triggered a subtle shift in expectations for the Fed’s December policy decision, with markets increasingly pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut.

Supporting this sentiment, delayed U.S. economic data released on Tuesday painted a softer macroeconomic picture. Consumer spending showed signs of deceleration, while producer price inflation moderated, easing concerns about runaway price pressures. Collectively, these indicators have bolstered the market narrative that the Fed could pivot towards a more accommodative stance, which historically benefits non-yielding assets such as gold.

Analysts note, however, that gold’s rally faces potential headwinds from diminishing safe-haven demand. Reports suggesting incremental progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have alleviated some geopolitical risk premiums, prompting cautious positioning among investors who typically flock to gold during periods of heightened uncertainty. Despite this, technical indicators point to continued upside momentum for the yellow metal.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s intraday performance has been supported by its sustained trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which has acted as a reliable support level in recent sessions. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings have shown positive divergence, signaling bullish momentum amid the prevailing uptrend. Additionally, the pair’s price action remains aligned with a minor supportive trend line, reinforcing the stability of the ongoing bullish trend.

From a charting perspective, gold appears poised to continue its upward trajectory. The recent completion of a consolidation phase and the formation of a new local higher high suggest a high probability of a bullish continuation. We are now eyeing resistance levels in the $4,200–$4,250 zone as the next potential targets, with a decisive break above this range likely to attract further buying interest.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4155

STOP LOSS: 4090

TAKE PROFIT: 4250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

After gold prices broke through US$4,100, bullish momentum persists as central banks' gold accumulation drives long-term foundations and bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts intensify.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4163.99

Entry Price

4346.00

4085.00

4209.53 +11.62 +0.28%

393.5

Pips

Profit

4085.00

4203.34

Exit Price

4163.99

Entry Price

4346.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices climbed to a two-week high of US$4,169 on Wednesday. Earlier, stronger U.S. economic data bolstered expectations for a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in December and weighed on the dollar. Spot gold rose over 0.7% to US$4,169, its highest level since November 14. Market expectations now lean more toward a December rate cut. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and robust economic data bolstered this case, providing a boost to gold from a yield perspective.

Additionally, as December—the traditional peak season for gold sales—approaches, gold prices have firmly settled above the US$4,000 mark, increasing the likelihood of another historic high. From East to West, physical gold demand surges around year-end as Asia's wedding season—particularly in India—coincides with the Christmas and New Year holidays in Europe and the Americas. Meanwhile, central banks' ongoing gold purchases to bolster foreign exchange reserves and continuous inflows into gold ETFs further bolster prospects for another price rally.

Uptrend Points to AB=CD Target, with Liquidity Potentially Becoming a Short-Term Variable_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, after gold prices broke through the key level of US$4,161 on Wednesday, the market signaled an early upward trend for bulls to push prices higher later, thereby laying the groundwork for testing the target of the symmetrical AB=CD pattern (US$4,346).

The immediate focus now is on market liquidity ahead of Thanksgiving Eve. Should liquidity decline, it could trigger a degree of selling pressure, potentially disrupting the overall upward structure. A sell-off below the US$4,109 level may necessitate a reassessment by bullish positions.