Recent weakness in precious metals prices may have been more a function of positioning and short-term narrative shifts than a meaningful deterioration in underlying demand, according to market analysts who argue that the latest adjustment has likely overshot the fundamental backdrop.

Gold and its precious metal peers have faced bouts of volatility in recent sessions, pressured by fluctuating interest rate expectations, a firmer US Dollar, and intermittent strength in global equity markets. However, a closer look at investment flows and macro drivers suggests that the core rationale for holding gold remains largely intact, with few signs of a structural shift in investor behavior.

From a thematic standpoint, the pillars that have supported gold over the past several years — geopolitical uncertainty, persistent fiscal expansion, central bank reserve diversification, and long-term inflation hedging — continue to underpin demand. Analysts note that neither official sector buyers nor institutional allocators appear to have meaningfully reduced their exposure in response to the recent pullback. Retail participation, particularly in Asia, also shows little evidence of capitulation.

This resilience in investor intent contrasts with past periods of sustained gold weakness, such as the early 1980s and the 2013 downturn. In the 1980s, gold entered a prolonged bear market amid aggressively rising real interest rates and a decisive shift toward tight monetary policy that restored confidence in fiat currencies. In 2013, the sharp selloff was triggered by expectations of Federal Reserve tapering, accompanied by large-scale ETF outflows that signaled a broad liquidation of speculative and strategic positions.

Today’s environment looks markedly different. While real yields have risen at times, they remain historically moderate, and global debt levels are significantly higher, limiting how far central banks can tighten without risking financial instability. Moreover, gold’s role has evolved beyond a pure inflation hedge into a broader portfolio diversifier and geopolitical risk buffer — functions that remain highly relevant in a fragmented global landscape.

Another key distinction lies in the behavior of official sector buyers. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been steady accumulators of gold reserves in recent years as part of a longer-term diversification strategy away from the US Dollar. There is little indication that this trend has reversed. Such structural demand provides a firmer floor under prices than in previous cycles dominated by speculative flows.

China has also emerged as a critical driver of precious metal demand, both through official channels and private investment. Recent developments in the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) offer an important signal in this regard. The rise in SGE premiums late last week — which reflect the difference between domestic Chinese prices and international benchmarks — points to a pickup in local buying interest. Elevated premiums typically indicate tight physical supply and robust demand from investors and jewelry consumers, reinforcing the view that underlying appetite remains strong.

In my view, the market’s recent reaction appears disproportionate to the catalysts cited. Short-term shifts in rate expectations or currency moves can certainly influence gold prices, but they do not necessarily alter the strategic case for holding precious metals in diversified portfolios. Unless there is a decisive and sustained shift toward sharply higher real yields and a stable geopolitical environment — conditions that currently seem unlikely — the broader backdrop still favors a constructive outlook.

As a result, the recent decline may prove to be more of a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Investors with a strategic allocation to gold are therefore unlikely to abandon positions, and any further dips could attract renewed buying, particularly from regions where physical demand remains robust.

From a technical perspective, gold remains within a dominant long-term bullish structure, but the latest price action shows a sharp volatility event that has temporarily destabilized the short-term trend. On the 2-hour chart, prices had been climbing steadily along a well-defined ascending trendline, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows. That structure culminated in a steep acceleration phase that pushed gold into a near-vertical rally before an abrupt selloff drove prices back toward the rising trendline and a key horizontal support zone around $4,700–$4,750.

This grey demand area now represents a critical battlefield between buyers and sellers. It previously acted as resistance before being broken to the upside, and it is now being retested as potential support. The fact that price has reacted near the intersection of this horizontal zone and the rising trendline strengthens its technical importance. As long as gold holds above this confluence region on a sustained basis, the broader bullish structure remains intact and the recent drop can be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a full trend reversal.

However, the violent nature of the rejection from the highs signals that near-term momentum has cooled significantly. The steep rally preceding the drop left the market stretched, and the sharp retracement suggests profit-taking and possible positioning adjustments at elevated levels. A decisive break below $4,700 would mark a clear loss of short-term structural support and expose the next downside levels near $4,550, followed by the $4,400–$4,450 region, where prior consolidation and breakout activity occurred.

On the upside, bulls will want to see a sustained move back above $4,900 to regain control of the short-term narrative. A push through that area would open the path toward a retest of the recent spike highs near $5,200. If momentum rebuilds and those highs are cleared, the broader trend extension could target the $5,600–$5,800 zone over time, in line with the prior breakout trajectory shown on the chart.

Momentum conditions now favor consolidation after an overextended move. The sharp pullback has likely helped reset previously overheated readings, reducing the immediate risk of another blow-off top but also implying that price may need time to stabilize before the next directional leg develops.

ENTRY PRICE: 4,760

STOP LOSS: 4,600

TAKE PROFIT: 5,200

Last week, Trump's nomination of Warsh sparked market concerns that he could steer monetary policy in a more hawkish direction or place greater emphasis on curbing inflation. Investors quickly repriced uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future and interest-rate trajectory, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields. This raised the opportunity cost of holding gold and pressured its price. Reports indicate that following the announcement, both the dollar and yields rose significantly, serving as key direct factors weighing on precious metals. In addition, this adjustment was not driven solely by fundamental repricing: structural factors amplified the decline. After gold hit historic highs, the market had accumulated substantial leveraged positions and ETF exposure. When policy risks shifted expectations and margin requirements were raised, forced liquidations and margin-driven selling quickly magnified the downward move, creating a self-reinforcing cascade. Media and exchange reports noted that the recent plunge coincided with higher futures margins and reduced liquidity on some exchanges, further exacerbating the drop.

Based on the daily chart, gold plunged for three consecutive sessions to the $4400 level, which coincides with support from the 60-day moving average, forming a resonance of support that temporarily weakened short-term bearish momentum. However, this does not signal the end of the downtrend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to enter oversold territory, further suggesting that the decline may continue.

Currently, gold has found brief support at $4400 and may stage a short-term rebound to test resistance in the $4680–$4780 zone. If it fails to break above this resistance and weakens again, gold could retest the $4400 support and potentially fall toward the $4780 area. Conversely, if gold breaks and holds above $4780, it could open the way for an advance toward $5000.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4660.00

Target price: 4320.00

Stop loss: 4810.00

Valid Until: February 16, 2026, 23:00:00

Support: 4400.00/4274.00

Resistance: 4680.00/4780.00

On Monday, CME Group raised its margin requirements, extending the decline in gold and silver after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Previously, precious metals saw a significant sell-off due to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair last week. "While Warsh's nomination may have been the initial catalyst, it doesn't explain the magnitude of the decline in precious metals," said Tim Waterer, chief trading analyst at KCM. "Forced selling and increased margins created a ripple effect." Analysts at JPMorgan, however, anticipate that despite recent market volatility, the upward trend will persist in the long term. Over the weekend, President Trump indicated that the U.S. is "on the verge" of a deal with Iran. Concurrently, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that any attack on Iran would trigger a regional conflict, while the U.S. continues to augment its troop presence in the region. Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented, "Investors and global central banks have favored gold as their preferred reserve currency, viewing it as a hedge against U.S. policy." She further noted, "Some nations have observed the potential seizure of Russian dollar assets by global powers supporting Ukraine, thus making gold a more attractive neutral reserve currency."

Heightened market caution regarding the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, following President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, could bolster the dollar. This action is interpreted by the market as a signal of a more restrained and disciplined approach to monetary easing by the Fed. Fed officials have also adopted a cautious stance. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated no need for further rate cuts, deeming the 3.50%-3.75% policy range largely neutral, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that policy should remain moderately restrictive. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is scheduled for release later on Monday. The index is expected to rise to 48.3 in January from 47.9 in December. A weaker-than-expected PMI report could weigh on the dollar and support commodity prices denominated in USD, as a softer dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive to international purchasers.

In the 1W timeframe, gold has formed a bearish evening star pattern, signaling a potential short-term price peak. If it fails to hold the EMA 12, it's highly probable that the price will decline towards the middle Bollinger Band and EMA 50, which are situated around 4126 and 3800, respectively. Conversely, if support is established, a rebound to 4800 and 5000 is likely. The RSI is currently at 60, indicating predominantly optimistic market sentiment among investors. In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed, and the moving averages are flattening. Following the evening star formation, the price has continued to decline with a large bearish candle, suggesting that the short-term downtrend is ongoing. The MACD has also generated a death cross at a high level, and the MACD line and signal line are retreating towards the zero-axis. Given the current distance from the zero-axis, this implies that the downward movement is not yet complete. Immediate support levels are identified at 4100 and 3900. The RSI is at 43, reflecting strong selling pressure in the market. It is recommended to go short before going long.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4100

Target Price: 5000

Stop Loss: 3800

Support: 4500, 4200, 4100

Resistance: 4700, 4800, 5000

Gold surged at an exceptional pace in January, with the monthly gain once approaching USD 1,300. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing global economic uncertainty, safe-haven flows poured heavily into the gold market, pushing prices toward their strongest monthly performance since 1980.

However, market sentiment reversed noticeably in the latter half of the week. Rumors that Warsh could replace Powell as Fed chair and adopt a more hawkish stance gained traction during the Asian session, prompting markets to reassess the future path of monetary policy. Under this influence, gold prices plunged more than 4% intraday on Friday.

As expectations for a “less dovish” Fed chair intensified, the USD staged a short-term rebound. At the same time, gold had already been in a clearly overbought condition, with the prior rapid price advance lacking fresh fundamental support.

The intraday “flash crash” observed on Thursday signaled that the upside momentum of this rally was beginning to fade. By Friday, gold broke below the USD 5,000 psychological level, with intraday losses expanding to more than 7%. Risks at elevated price levels were rapidly released, and short-term topping signals became increasingly evident.

During the correction, part of the safe-haven demand rotated out of gold and temporarily shifted toward USD assets. Previously accumulated floating profits amplified the incentive for profit-taking at high levels.

Looking ahead, in the absence of renewed geopolitical escalation or strong macro-level stimulus in the near term, traders may continue to lock in profits. Gold may enter a phase of high-level consolidation or further correction in the short term, with the risk of continued volatility expansion remaining elevated.

Gold’s consecutive sharp pullbacks on Friday are consistent with expectations of heightened volatility following institutional selling. From the perspective of the current structural trend, large price swings are likely to persist into early next month. During this period, momentum indicators are prone to frequent breakouts and are therefore not recommended as trading references. Positioning should instead be based on key institutional selling levels.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5400

Target Price: 4519

Stop Loss: 5475

Valid Until: February 25, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 5045 / 4990 / 4940

Resistance: 5188 / 5241 / 5409

In a breathtaking reversal of fortune that underscores the extreme fragility of speculative market rallies, the silver market endured a violent and historic sell-off on Friday, surrendering a massive portion of its recent record-breaking gains. The precipitous drop, one of the most severe single-day corrections in modern memory, has sent shockwaves through the broader commodities complex and served as a stark reminder of the perils of frothy, leverage-fueled momentum.

After a parabolic ascent that captivated and concerned investors in equal measure, spot silver (XAG/USD) finally buckled under its own weight and a shifting macroeconomic tide. At last check, the white metal was trading near $102.20 per ounce, a staggering decline of 12.30% for the session. This gut-wrenching move effectively erased a significant chunk of the gains that propelled silver to an unprecedented all-time high of $121.66 just yesterday—a peak that now stands as a sobering monument to the frenzy that preceded the collapse.

The selling pressure, which began in Asian hours, metastasized into a full-blown liquidation event during the European trading session. Prices entered a near-freefall, momentarily breaching the critical psychological fortress of $100 to tag an intraday low of $95.08. The scale and velocity of the decline were not merely a function of disappointed bulls; they pointed directly to the forced unwinding of highly leveraged speculative positions. As stop-loss orders were triggered en masse, the selling fed upon itself, creating a vacuum of bids and exacerbating the downward spiral.

This was not an isolated tremor but part of a broader seismic shift rattling the precious metals space. The dramatic pullback reflects a rapid and harsh reassessment of the most speculative safe-haven assets. The market narrative, which for weeks had been dominated by geopolitical fear and endless liquidity, abruptly changed key.

The primary accelerant for today’s fire sale was a fundamental shift in the most important variable for non-yielding assets: the future path of U.S. monetary policy. The catalyst emerged from the political sphere, with the announcement that President Donald Trump intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

The market’s reaction was immediate and unequivocal. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is perceived by investors as notably more hawkish on inflation and a staunch advocate for a more aggressive reduction of the central bank’s bloated balance sheet. His potential leadership implies a Federal Reserve that would be significantly less accommodative, and potentially more proactive in tightening financial conditions, than previously priced in.

The consequences were instantaneous. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged, climbing off its recent lows as the prospect of higher relative yields boosted its appeal. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields jumped across the curve. For silver, which offers no interest or dividend, this twin development is poison. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for foreign buyers, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a asset that generates no income. The calculus for institutional holders changed in a matter of minutes.

Beyond the Warsh shock, today’s action embodies the classic market dynamic of "buy the rumor, sell the news" amplified to an extreme degree. The recent vertical rally, driven by a potent cocktail of Middle East tensions, global growth anxieties, and massive speculative inflows, had pushed silver into technically overbought territory of historic proportions. The market was a coiled spring, waiting for a catalyst to snap back.

The Fed nomination provided that trigger, prompting a long-overdue wave of profit-taking. Investors who rode the spectacular surge from lower levels seized the opportunity to convert paper gains into realized profits at still-elevated prices. This organic selling merged with the forced liquidation from leveraged players, creating a perfect storm of downward pressure.

Despite the brutal visual on today’s chart, it is crucial to maintain perspective. Even after this dramatic correction, silver remains on track to close one of its strongest monthly performances in history. The underlying fundamental drivers that fueled the rally have not vanished. Geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East, remains elevated. Questions surrounding global economic stamina and the ultimate trajectory of inflation are unresolved. The structural demand for tangible assets as a hedge against monetary debasement and uncertainty persists.

What today represents is not necessarily the end of the bullish narrative, but a severe and necessary market cleanse. It has shaken out the weakest hands, reset overextended technical indicators, and forced a repricing based on a new, more hawkish Fed risk. The volatility is a tax on uncertainty, and today, that tax was levied in full.

Going forward, investors must prepare for a new regime of elevated volatility. The market must now grapple with the implications of a potentially transformative shift at the helm of the world’s most influential central bank. Support levels around $100 and below will be tested rigorously. Whether this episode morphs into a deeper correction or proves to be a healthy consolidation within a longer-term uptrend will depend on the evolution of the Fed narrative, the persistence of geopolitical strife, and the appetite of physical buyers to step in at these lower levels.

From a technical perspective, silver has shifted from a steady bullish advance into a vulnerable corrective phase on the 4-hour chart. Price had been trending higher along a well-respected ascending trendline, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. However, the latest sharp rejection from the upper resistance zone near $118.00–$120.00 has disrupted that structure, with price now breaking back below a key horizontal support band around $104.00–$106.00.

This former support zone, which previously acted as a platform for multiple rebounds, is now at risk of turning into resistance. The strong bearish impulse candle slicing through this region signals a change in short-term momentum and suggests that buyers are losing control after an extended run. Price is currently hovering near the psychological $100.00 level, which is providing temporary support, but the broader structure now looks increasingly fragile.

The ascending trendline that guided the rally from early January has also been breached on an intraday basis. Unless silver can quickly reclaim levels above $105.00 and re-establish itself back above the broken support zone, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. A sustained move below $99.00–$100.00 would confirm a deeper corrective phase, exposing the $95.00 region initially, followed by the $90.00–$92.00 zone where prior consolidation and demand were seen.

On the upside, any recovery attempts are likely to face first resistance near $104.00–$106.00. A decisive break back above this area would be needed to stabilize the structure and shift focus toward $110.00. Only a sustained move beyond $116.00–$118.00 would fully revive the broader bullish trend and open the door for a retest of recent highs.

Momentum dynamics now favor consolidation-to-bearish continuation rather than immediate trend resumption. The recent rejection from the highs and the impulsive nature of the selloff suggest fading bullish momentum and rising distribution at elevated levels. This points to increased risk of further downside probing before a more durable base can form.

SELL SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 97.50

STOP LOSS: 106.00

TAKE PROFIT: 87.00

In the often-predictable world of currency trading, it is the clash of narratives that breeds volatility, and the GBP/JPY cross is currently ground zero for a compelling policy dissonance. The Pound Sterling, acting as both protagonist and barometer of global risk sentiment, is holding a commanding position just shy of its weekly highs against the beleaguered Japanese Yen. As of this writing, the pair trades at 211.65, a level that encapsulates a Wednesday rebound from the 210.00 support—a recovery fueled not by UK developments, but by clarifying rhetoric from Washington that has effectively short-circuited the Yen’s fledgling recovery narrative.

The week’s drama began with a rumor that sent shockwaves through the Tokyo markets: whispers of a potential coordinated intervention to prop up the historically weak Yen. This specter, which triggered a sharp but fleeting JPY recovery last week, was authoritatively laid to rest by none other than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg, Bessent delivered a one-two punch of dollar policy. First, he explicitly denied any plans for market intervention to support JPY stability. More significantly, less than 24 hours after former President Donald Trump publicly praised a weakening dollar, Bessent forcefully affirmed the current administration’s commitment to a "strong Dollar policy." The message was unequivocal and immediately digestible for traders: do not expect a US backstop for the Yen’s woes. This single interview provided the jet fuel for the GBP/JPY’s rebound, demonstrating the outsized influence of US political and fiscal commentary on global FX flows.

This American intervention—verbal, not market-based—effectively offset what should have been a supportive domestic development for the Yen. The released minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy meeting revealed a governing board increasingly tilting toward hawkishness. There was noted “general agreement” that the potent combination of persistent inflationary pressures, the Yen’s profound weakness exacerbating import costs, and sustained wage growth indeed “justify further monetary tightening.” This language marks a subtle but critical shift from the BoJ’s decades-long ultra-dovish dogma, theoretically constructing a fundamental floor for the Yen. Yet, in the face of a resolute US Treasury, these minutes read like a theoretical exercise, their impact muted by the stark reality of a widening interest rate chasm and a lack of immediate action.

The immediate test for the BoJ’s thesis arrives later today with the release of the advanced Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), a leading indicator for national trends. The data presents a critical dilemma. While the BoJ minutes speak of rising pressures, the hard data tells a moderating story: consumer inflation in Japan’s capital cooled to 2.0% year-on-year in December from 2.7% in November. The market consensus for January’s core reading suggests a further moderation. A print confirming this cooling trend could severely undermine the hawkish narrative embedded in the minutes, stripping the Yen of one of its few remaining domestic supports and inviting renewed selling pressure. The currency is caught between the BoJ’s forward-looking guidance and the market’s rear-view mirror data analysis.

On the other side of the pair, the Pound draws strength from a more immediate and visceral source: sticky inflation. Data earlier this week revealed UK shop price inflation surged in January to its highest level in nearly two years, driven by stubbornly rising food prices and elevated fuel costs. For traders and the Bank of England alike, this is a potent signal. It directly boosts expectations for a hotter-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index reading for January when it is published later this month. In the current environment, "hot" UK data translates directly into support for Sterling, as it fiercely entrenches the argument against any near-term monetary easing from the BoE. While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank openly debate their first rate cuts, the UK’s inflation dynamics suggest its central bank will be among the last to pivot. This relative interest rate advantage provides a structural tailwind for the Pound against funding currencies like the Yen.