Canada’s Q3 GDP rebounded 0.6% QoQ (vs. –0.5% in Q2), beating consensus by a wide margin, as the trade balance improved on softer imports and a modest export lift. The print sent CAD sharply higher on reduced BoC easing bets.

The upside surprise may be partly statistical—an artefact of the deflation method and pre-tariff trade pulls—while the import-driven wedge implies underlying fragility despite the headline strength.

Focus now shifts to Friday’s November LFS release, the last major data point before the 10 Dec BoC decision.

We expect flat employment growth in November after outsized gains of 67,000 in October and 60,000 in September. Slower population growth should curb new labour-market entrants, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 6.9%—the same as in October and below the 7.1% readings of August and September.

The Canadian labour market remains slack: the jobless rate is still roughly 100 bp above our estimate of “neutral”. Yet a 6.9% print would mark the first YoY unchanged reading since May 2023.

The BoC’s October cut explicitly marked the lower bound of its estimated neutral range. Absent a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further easing is unlikely.

USDCAD’s slide is losing momentum today, yet a daily MACD bearish divergence is in place. A close below the 1.3920 shelf is the first confirmation of a reversal. Slicing through the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3538–1.4139 leg at 1.3909 would seal the end of the up-move from 1.3538 and expose the 61.8% Fibo at 1.3768. While 1.4129 caps, any bounce retains downside skew.

On the flip-side, the April-to-date inverse head-and-shoulders base remains intact. Once the bull-flag consolidation clears, buyers are likely to re-engage.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3957

Target Price: 1.4289

Stop Loss: 1.3860

Valid Until: December 17, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.3937/1.3921/1.3888

Resistance Levels: 1.3992/1.4000/1.4040

At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to maintain current production levels unchanged in Q1 2026 and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Interpreted by the market, this is a signal of "maintaining output rather than easing" shortly, which provides only limited support to oil prices without fundamentally alleviating concerns about oversupply in 2026.

In addition, geopolitical and transportation disruptions (such as temporary shutdowns of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and reports of damage to Russia–Ukraine-related facilities) created short-term expectations of supply tightness on the news front. However, the sustainability and scale of these factors remain unconfirmed, leading to fluctuating market sentiment.

Meanwhile, U.S. weekly inventory data shows no clear signs of destocking—refinery utilization rates and crude inventories have not decreased notably. Inventory structure and floating storage data suggest that hidden supply pressure persists. This indicates that even with supportive policy signals, upward momentum still requires actual inventory drawdowns to cooperate.

Overall, the current fundamental backdrop presents mixed signals of "news-driven positives (shutdowns/geopolitics)" alongside "physical inventory pressures." The near-term direction is highly dependent on inventory data over the coming weeks and OPEC+ compliance.

Based on the 4-hour chart, WTI opened higher today thanks to weekend-positive news. Now, it rebounds to the upper rail of the recent downward channel formed by price action. The previous 4-hour candle closed with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy downward pressure from the channel's upper boundary and weakening bullish momentum in the short term. Thus, WTI is more likely to plummet.

Currently, if WTI fails to break strongly and hold above the upper rail of the downward channel shortly, the downtrend is likely to persist. Conversely, a strong breakout above the channel would open up further upside potential, possibly testing resistance at 61.40.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 59.50

Target price: 55.50

Stop loss: 61.70

Valid Until: December 15, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 58.96/57.02

Resistance: 59.77/61.40

Regarding the Canadian dollar, better-than-expected quarterly GDP data has prompted traders to reduce expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada during its current rate-hike cycle, thereby supporting the CAD. Statistics Canada reported on Friday that Canada's economic growth in the third quarter was 2.6% on an annualized basis, compared to a 1.8% contraction in the second quarter (revised from a previous decline of 1.6%). This performance exceeded the prior forecast of 0.5% growth. Amid ongoing trade disruptions from U.S. tariffs, the Canadian government continues to strengthen support measures for the domestic steel and lumber sectors. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans to further tighten steel import quotas from non-free trade agreement countries, reducing them from the initial 50% of the 2024 baseline to 20%. Quotas from FTA partner countries will also be cut from 100% to 75%, while imports from the U.S. and Mexico remain unaffected due to the constraints of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The government also plans to impose a 25% global tariff on certain steel derivative products and implement tighter anti-dumping measures at borders to expand domestic market access. Previously, import quotas for non-free trade countries were limited to 50% of 2024 levels. These measures are viewed as another extension of Canada's crackdown on steel dumping. The steel industry plays a vital role in the Canadian economy, contributing over 4 billion CAD to GDP and supporting more than 23,000 jobs. However, the industry faced severe setbacks following U.S. President Trump's imposition of a 50% tariff on Canadian steel. To mitigate these impacts, the Canadian government will collaborate with railway companies starting in 2026 to cut interprovincial transportation costs for steel and timber by half, encourage increased use of domestically produced steel and timber within the construction sector, and provide financial support to businesses adversely affected by tariffs to help them manage workforce restructuring, cash flow challenges, and operational adjustments.

Traders are closely monitoring the release of the U.S. November ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, seeking potential new market catalysts. Following dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials and a series of underwhelming economic data releases, investor expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in December have intensified. This outlook could exert short-term downward pressure on the USDCAD. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants currently assign an 87% probability to a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Additionally, reports suggest that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, potentially further depreciating the dollar. Hassett, considered a close ally of President Donald Trump, supports faster and more significant rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating a narrowing volatility. The short-term moving average, EMA12, has flattened, and the price is oscillating around the EMA50. The MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum, with the MACD line and signal line approaching a potential death cross, suggesting a high probability of decline toward the EMA200 support zone, approximately around the 1.39 level. The RSI is at 44, reflecting strong bearish sentiment and implying that a short-term correction is still underway. In the 1H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward; following a golden cross, the MACD's MACD line and signal line are retracing toward the zero-axis but still remain some distance away, indicating the correction has not yet concluded. Key support levels are near the lower Bollinger Band and psychological round numbers at approximately 1.393 and 1.39, with the RSI around 40, further evidencing prevailing market pessimism. Therefore, it is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.399

Target Price: 1.386

Stop Loss: 1.405

Support: 1.393, 1.39, 1.386

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44

Last week, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a new budget centered on tax increases, which became the market's focal point. The budget includes multiple tax adjustments and spending measures aimed at expanding fiscal space and addressing public finance pressures. Moreover, it also sparked widespread discussion about growth prospects and policy feasibility. Tax measures form the main source of additional revenue. The government plans to freeze the income tax personal allowance again for three years starting in 2028, expected to raise £7.6 billion by the 2029/30 fiscal year. An annual supplemental tax on high-value residential properties will be introduced — homes worth over £2 million and £5 million will be taxed at £2,500 and £7,500 respectively, projected to raise over £400 million by 2031. In transport, the fuel duty cut will be extended until September 2026. To offset the revenue shortfall from rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption, an EV mileage tax will be introduced from April 2028: pure EVs will be charged 3 pence per mile, plug-in hybrids 1.5 pence per mile, and is expected to generate £1.4 billion. Additionally, the budget raises dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points, reforms business property taxes, and increases betting and alcohol duties, among other measures, with total new tax revenue exceeding £26 billion. From a medium- to long-term perspective, delayed implementation of tax hikes, weak productivity expectations, and concerns over debt sustainability may continue to exert downward pressure on the pound.

Due to market uncertainty and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, traders have increased bets on Fed rate cuts, pushing the dollar lower and creating headwinds for USD-related pairs. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December meeting has risen to 87%, up from 71% a week ago. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said current data show the labor market remains weak enough to warrant another 25-basis-point cut in December. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated she supports cutting rates next month, noting that a sudden deterioration in the job market is more likely and harder to control than a surge in inflation.

Based on the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is oscillating around the EMA12, with MACD forming a death cross. The signal and MACD lines are moving back toward the zero axis but are still some distance away, indicating the adjustment is not yet complete. If the price breaks below EMA12 and EMA200, it is likely to pull back to near EMA50 at around 1.318. RSI stands at 54, reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Regarding the daily chart, the pair is pressured by EMA200 and the Bollinger upper Band. In the short term, it may return to near the Bollinger Middle Band at approximately 1.315. After the MACD golden cross, the MACD and signal lines are retracing toward the zero axis, signaling that a trend reversal could occur at any time. RSI is at 53, still showing market hesitation. Overall, the recent short-term rebound appears to be nearing its end. Therefore, it is better to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.322

Target price: 1.29

Stop loss: 1.34

Support: 1.3/ 1.29/ 1.28

Resistance: 1.326/ 1.33/ 1.34

The Canadian Dollar advanced firmly on Friday, extending its week-long momentum against the US Dollar as investors responded to a stronger-than-expected rebound in Canada’s third-quarter economic performance. The move pushed USD/CAD to around 1.3984, its fourth consecutive daily decline, as sustained weakness in the Greenback and fresh optimism surrounding the Canadian macro outlook drove traders out of the pair.

The latest GDP figures from Statistics Canada provided a meaningful lift to sentiment. September GDP expanded 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations while validating a modest but steady recovery after August’s figure was revised upward to -0.1% from the previously reported -0.3%. More importantly, the economy posted 0.6% real GDP growth in Q3, reversing the previous quarter’s -0.5% contraction and sharply outperforming economist forecasts. On an annualized basis, growth surged 2.6%, far above the 0.5% consensus, and a powerful rebound from the -1.8% pace recorded in Q2.

A closer look into the components of the report reveals an economy stabilizing unevenly. The rebound was overwhelmingly driven by the external sector. Exports rose 0.2%, while imports fell 2.2%, providing a strong net trade contribution that effectively masked underlying softness in domestic demand. Household consumption weakened—the clearest indication that higher interest rates and rising living costs continue to squeeze purchasing power. Vehicle sales dropped 2.3%, while government spending slipped 0.4%, underscoring broad caution in both private and public sector activity.

Despite the upbeat headline GDP reading, analysts broadly agree that the numbers are unlikely to shift expectations for the Bank of Canada’s December 10 policy meeting. In October, the central bank cut its policy rate to 2.25%, signaling that it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle. Policymakers described the current stance as “about right,” suggesting that—barring unexpected inflationary developments—further cuts are unlikely in the near term. The GDP data reinforces this stance: not strong enough to prompt tightening, but sufficiently improved to justify a wait-and-see approach.

Meanwhile, developments south of the border are creating a widening policy divergence that is working in the Canadian Dollar’s favor. Market pricing increasingly reflects expectations that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with a 25 bps rate cut in December, following a series of dovish-leaning remarks from influential Fed officials earlier in the week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign an 85% probability of a reduction at the December 9–10 meeting. With US yields slipping and the Greenback losing momentum across the board, USD/CAD faces persistent downward pressure.

From a broader market perspective, the combination of a steady BoC and a potentially accommodative Fed tilts the balance of risks to the downside for USD/CAD in the near term. While Canada’s domestic economy remains fragile, the relative policy path is increasingly CAD-supportive, especially as the US Dollar struggles to regain its footing.

USD/CAD continues to trade under pronounced bearish pressure, reflecting a clear corrective descent in the short term. The pair remains pinned below the EMA50, reinforcing negative sentiment and signaling that buyers are struggling to regain control after the recent oversold conditions.

Momentum indicators suggest that bearish dominance is intact, and the recent break of a key ascending trendline has strengthened the downside bias. With sentiment growing increasingly aligned against the US Dollar, technical structure now points to a continuation of the decline.

All eyes are now on the 1.3800 support zone, a psychologically significant level and the next logical bearish target. A clean break below this region could expose deeper downside levels, potentially accelerating the pair’s corrective cycle into December—especially if Fed expectations continue shifting in a dovish direction.

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3960

STOP LOSS: 1.4060

TAKE PRROFIT: 1.3800

Silver prices surged sharply this week, climbing from around $50 to more than $54 per troy ounce—a move that decisively outpaced gold and sent the Gold/Silver ratio tumbling to an annual low near 77. The metal’s outsized strength has shifted market attention firmly toward the white metal, which is benefiting from a potent combination of macroeconomic tailwinds, tightening physical supply, and resurgent investor appetite.

According to Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch, the magnitude of silver’s rally is no coincidence. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could deliver a rate cut as early as the week after next have fueled broad-based gains across precious metals. However, silver’s more volatile and industrially sensitive profile has amplified its upside as easing financial conditions tend to boost demand for metals tied to manufacturing, electronics, and renewable technologies.

A significant piece of the bullish narrative stems from deepening supply tightness in China—by far the world’s largest consumer and processor of silver.Inventories registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have dropped to their lowest levels in 10 years, while holdings on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) have fallen to their lowest in more than nine years. Bloomberg data, sourced from exchanges and brokers, confirms the steep decline.

The drawdown was accelerated by China’s record silver exports, totaling 660 tons in October, a level not seen in decades. These exports—reportedly flowing into London—were aimed at easing shortages in key Western hubs, particularly after supply tightness in October pushed London vault inventories to precarious levels.

Market strategists warn that if London’s immediate shortages are resolved and exports slow, a reversion of physical flows back into China could rapidly tighten supply in the West again. Such a shift would likely amplify volatility and keep prices elevated into year-end.

Investor participation has added another powerful layer to silver’s bullish momentum.Silver exchange-traded funds tracked by Bloomberg saw inflows exceeding 290 tons in recent days, drawing more physical supply out of the market. These inflows mark a sharp turnaround from last year’s prolonged outflows.

Since January, silver ETFs have accumulated more than 3,500 tons, with the bulk of that demand arriving over the first nine months of the year. The resurgence underlines growing conviction that silver’s undervaluation relative to gold may be narrowing as macro conditions shift toward looser policy.

ETF buying has historically acted as a major amplifier of silver rallies, and the latest data suggests speculative and long-term investors are re-entering the metal at scale.

From a technical standpoint, silver’s chart structure supports the bullish scenario. The metal has shown volatile intraday swings, but price action continues to uphold the dominant upward trend visible across short-term charts.

Silver is currently grinding along a supportive ascending trend line, repeatedly absorbing dips and regaining bullish momentum. Despite entering overbought territory on relative strength indicators, the market continues to generate constructive signals that typically accompany strong uptrends.

The next major hurdle sits at $54.35, a key resistance zone that bulls are attempting to break. A decisive close above this level could open the door toward $55.80 and potentially $58.00, especially if macro conditions remain supportive and ETF inflows persist.

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 55.20

STOP LOSS: 53.00

TAKE PROFIT: 58.00