The dollar’s fundamental tone stayed firm last week, fueled by Chair Powell’s hawkish push-back at the post-FOMC presser. By refusing to pre-commit to a December cut, he forced the market to pare back easing bets and lifted the USD across the board. A partial thaw in U.S.–China trade tensions removed another layer of USD-negative uncertainty. Even the ongoing government shutdown—and the resulting data blackout—has not deterred investors, with most desks arguing there is still no compelling short thesis in the near term.

On the euro side, EZ Q3 GDP printed a tick above consensus and a chorus of ECB speakers insisted the “economy is in a good place,” yet the cross still couldn’t shake off its lethargy. President Lagarde reiterated that policy is “appropriately restrictive” and that a near-term rate move is “unlikely,” a stance that should put a soft floor under the single currency but offers little upside traction against a resurgent dollar.

This week’s EZ calendar is light: final French and German manufacturing PMIs, German factory orders and EZ retail sales are the headliners. Unless the releases materially beat forecasts, any EUR lift is expected to be modest at best. In the U.S., the shutdown may delay official releases, but private-sector surveys will still steer sentiment. Traders will key on ISM manufacturing and services indexes and the ADP employment report. A soft payroll pulse would revive December cut pricing, while firm data would give the USD another leg higher.

Therefore, the Fed’s reaction function remains data-dependent, with the labour market and inflation trends still calling the shots.

EURUSD remains in a mid-term consolidation range, but the short-term bias tilts lower. Last week’s close near the range bottom highlights dominant selling pressure. Immediate support sits at 1.1510. A decisive break exposes the August low of 1.1391. Resistance lies at 1.1580 and 1.1600. A sustained breach would revive upside momentum.

Momentum gauges show fading bullish impetus, making intraday rebounds prone to reversal. While 1.1510 offers a technically robust floor that could initially limit downside, persistent USD strength may still force a probe lower.

Overall, the pair is short-term bearish, medium-term range-bound. Monitor payroll data and any Powell remarks for shifts in Fed expectations.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1570

Target Price: 1.1286

Stop Loss: 1.1677

Valid Until: 18 November, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.1510/1.1461/1.1393

Resistance: 1.1578/1.1637/1.1668

NZDUSD slid sharply last week, driven predominantly by a resurgent U.S. dollar. Chair Powell’s hawkish post-meeting remarks at the October FOMC forced markets to re-price the probability of a December rate cut, propelling the USD higher across the board as Treasury yields jumped. Prior consensus had priced in a third consecutive 25 bp reduction, which was abruptly unwound, weighing on risk assets and commodity prices and dragging the Kiwi lower.

The Chair’s push-back not only reversed NZDUSD’s earlier uptrend but also left a weekly shooting-star candle, flagging downside momentum. Attention now turns to New Zealand’s Q3 labour-market report, the key domestic input for the RBNZ’s 27 November MPS. While the Bank’s inflation-targeting mandate remains paramount, a softening labour market is increasingly guiding its reaction function. The unemployment rate has drifted higher and participation has rolled over, keeping domestic inflationary pressures muted.

Should this week’s release show no sign of a turnaround, priced-in odds for a fourth straight 25 bp cut at the November meeting will harden, and OIS contracts could nudge the terminal cash-rate sub-2%. Conversely, an upside surprise in employment and wage prints would temper easing expectations. The RBNZ’s own projection sees Q3 unemployment at 5.3% and private-sector wages rising 2.1% YoY both consistent with only tepid inflation pressure.

NZDUSD’s inverse correlation with U.S. Treasury yields has tightened markedly: the five-day rolling correlations with 2- and 10-year benchmarks are ‑0.92 and ‑0.93, respectively, implying that any backup in Treasury yields is almost mechanically accompanied by Kiwi weakness. Concurrently, the currency exhibits high beta to both offshore CNH and SGX whole-milk-powder futures, underscoring its sensitivity to global cyclical-risk sentiment.

On the daily chart, NZDUSD printed a key reversal candle after stalling near 0.5800 and subsequently broke the rising-wedge support, technically confirming a bearish shift. Layered supports follow at 0.5683, 0.5678 and 0.5640. Momentum gauges align with the down-move: RSI has sliced below its own uptrend line and is drifting away from the neutral zone, while MACD is curling lower and entrenched in negative territory, flagging building downside pressure.

During the day, any bounce that fades ahead of 0.5755 can be treated as a sell-the-rip opportunity, with stops parked just above the level to guard against a reversal. A daily close back above 0.5755 would nullify the near-term bearish setup and reopen a retest of 0.5800.

Overall, the pair remains skewed lower under the double weight of a hawkish Fed and RBNZ easing bets. Unless this week’s labour data deliver a material upside surprise, Kiwi topside is likely to remain capped and the October low remains in play.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.5725

Target Price: 0.5835

Stop Loss: 0.5600

Valid Until: 18 November, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 0.5735/0.5710/0.5682

Resistance: 0.5802/0.5820/0.5845

The ECB announced its monetary-policy decision on Thursday. As widely expected, the Governing Council left the three key policy rates unchanged: the main refinancing operations (MRO) rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility (MLF) rate at 2.40% and the deposit facility (DF) rate at 2.00%. The hold was fully priced in, given both the Council's prior guidance and the fact that the euro-area easing cycle started well ahead of the Fed's.

The ECB has been cutting rates since June 2024, with a cumulative total of eight rate cuts. These measures have finally brought the rates to a relatively comfortable neutral level, without any signs of rising price pressures, while the economy has maintained moderate and stable growth. Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, reiterated at the subsequent press conference that the ECB is currently in a good position. She further emphasized that officials are prepared to ensure inflation stabilizes at the 2% target level over the medium term. Finally, Lagarde noted that some downside risks to growth have eased, but this is not the case for inflation. The ECB's decision had no real impact on the euro. After market participants digested this news, EURUSD continued its downward trend for the week.

The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%.

Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of 50 bp, while Kansas-City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid preferred no change. The Committee also announced an immediate end to quantitative tightening. The statement itself moved markets little. However, the reaction came only after Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. Powell struck a distinctly hawkish tone, framing the cut as a risk-management move but stressing that a December reduction is "not a given. "On speculative repricing, the DXY spiked and equities closed marginally lower, while the probability of a December cut fell sharply.

Furthermore, Powell also emphasized the challenges posed by the government shutdown to assessing the economic situation, which has led to a lack of official data, particularly employment-related figures. "Perhaps we should be more cautious," Powell noted. "I am not making a commitment here; I am simply saying that there is indeed a possibility that we might say, 'We really can't see the situation clearly right now, so let's slow down.'"

At the moment, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week. Federal coffers ran dry on 1 Oct and the Senate has yet to coalesce around a continuing-resolution bill. After the Fed's announcement, price action shows markets are pricing in a protracted closure, but overall sentiment remains relatively orderly.

Trade-war headlines again dominated the newswires this week. After a Seoul sidebar between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, the news-flow turned constructive: Washington will roll back its fentanyl-linked tariff to 10%, while Beijing pledged stepped-up U.S. farm purchases, suspended rare-earth export curbs and agreed to launch energy-sector talks.

Separately, the U.S. unveiled an Enhanced Trade Agreement with Tokyo aimed at aligning critical-mineral supply chains and reaffirming prior joint pledges. Following a Tuesday meeting with Prime Minister Takashi Tachibana, President Trump confirmed that the previously threatened 25% levy on Japanese goods will be set at 15%. In return, Japan committed to a $550 bn industrial-investment package and market-opening steps for U.S. rice, autos and defence hardware.

On the daily timeframe, after the MACD on the EURUSD formed a death cross signal, the fast and slow lines fell below the 0-axis. This indicates the market has entered a bearish phase. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the moving averages are diverging downward. The price is fluctuating downward along the EMA12. The RSI reads 37, meaning the market has entered the oversold zone. If the price breaks below 1.16 again, it will most likely drop to the integer level of 1.15 and around 1.139 (near the EMA200).

From the weekly perspective, the Bollinger Band channels are narrowing. The price broke below the Bollinger Middle Band in a large bearish candlestick pattern. After the MACD formed a death cross, the fast and slow lines are pulling back toward the 0-axis but still have a certain distance to cover, indicating the correction is not yet complete. The RSI reads 50, and the highs are gradually lowering, showing the market has entered a wait-and-see sentiment. Once the price fails to hold above the Bollinger Middle Band after a rebound, it will most likely fall to the EMA50 or even near the Bollinger Lower Band.

Therefore, the short-term trading strategy is recommended to focus on selling at highs.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1526

Target Price: 1.12

Stop Loss: 1.173

Support: 1.145/1.14/1.12

Resistance: 1.182/1.192/1.2

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar driven by rising oil prices has led to a subdued USDCAD exchange rate. Notably, Canada is the U.S.' largest crude oil export partner. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have remained around US$61 per barrel. The increase in crude oil prices is attributed to OPEC+ signaling a pause in production hikes. On Sunday, OPEC+ announced that after a slight increase in output next month, plans are set to suspend further production increases into the first quarter of 2026. Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate to 2.25%, indicating that the easing cycle may be nearing completion. The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the overnight rate target to 2.25%, with the bank rate set at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. In its policy statement, the Bank noted that, given the increasingly transparent impact of U.S. trade actions on economic growth and inflation, the monetary policy report has resumed its forecasts for the global and Canadian economies. Due to the persistent high uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, these projections now face broader risk ranges than before. The Canadian economy is undergoing a structural transition. Long-term damages from trade conflicts have diminished potential output capacity and increased production costs, thereby constraining the monetary policy space to stimulate demand and maintain low inflation. The Bank of Canada emphasized its commitment to ensuring public confidence in price stability during global economic fluctuations. The next scheduled announcement of the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025, with the upcoming monetary policy report due for release on January 28, 2026.

The Federal Reserve has implemented its second rate cut of the year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.0%. This has diminished market expectations for a December rate cut, providing support to the U.S. dollar. Consequently, the USDCAD currency pair may recover recent losses and continue its upward trajectory for the third consecutive trading session. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference that a December rate cut remains highly uncertain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers might need to adopt a wait-and-see approach until official economic data is released. According to the FedWatch tool by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, traders currently estimate a 69% probability of a rate decrease in December, down from 93% a week earlier. However, due to the prolonged government shutdown, traders are likely to remain cautious, potentially heightening fears about the U.S. economy. The government impasse has entered its sixth week, with Congress deadlocked over an appropriations bill backed by Republicans, and no straightforward resolution currently in sight.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating narrowing volatility. The short-term EMA12 has stabilized, and the price has regained support above the EMA12 and the middle Bollinger Band, signaling a shift back to bullish momentum. A golden cross in the MACD would further accelerate the upward trend. The RSI stands at 58, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Resistance levels are near the upper Bollinger Band and previous highs around 1.407 and 1.44. In the 1W timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with MACD exhibiting sustained bullish momentum. Price action oscillates near the upper Bollinger Band, and following a MACD golden cross, the MACD line and signal line have moved above the zero-axis. The RSI is at 57, with higher lows, indicating improving market confidence in continued upward movement. Therefore, it is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.4017

Target Price: 1.44

Stop Loss: 1.38

Support: 1.378, 1.37, 1.357

Resistance: 1.41, 1.42, 1.44

The newly announced OPEC+ decision indicates that the group has agreed to a slight production increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025, while pausing any further output growth in Q1 2026. This move is seen in the market as a precautionary measure against the risk of "potential supply flooding," thereby temporarily boosting sentiment of support in the crude oil market. Specifically, the crude oil market is under pressure due to global inventory accumulation, record-high U.S. shale production growth, and expectations of a slowdown in global demand recovery.

OPEC+'s decision to pause production growth helps alleviate oversupply concerns, which is fundamentally positive for oil prices. However, this positive also carries a "half-signal" nature: First, although the increase is paused, there is no reduction in output, nor is there a significant voluntary contraction in capacity. This means that if demand continues to weaken or U.S. shale production accelerates, the risk of oversupply still persists. Second, the pause is limited to Q1 only; subsequent resumption of production or increased output from new members could trigger another round of downward pressure. Additionally, global economic growth—especially the weak recovery in factory activity and demand in major consuming countries such as China, India, and the EU—leaves demand-side uncertainty still in play.

Therefore, OPEC+'s policy provides interim support for oil prices, but it won't fundamentally eliminate downside risks.

Based on the daily chart, WTI opened with a gap higher, driven by the short-term positive news that OPEC+ will halt production growth in Q1 2026. However, it still failed to break through the key resistance level of 61.60 and entered a phase of consolidation.

On the downside, WTI may extend the depreciation if it fails to cross above 61.60 shortly, testing 56.00 again.

On the upside, WTI is likely to ascend towards 63.00 if it breaks above 61.60 in the short term.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 61.15

Target price: 56.50

Stop loss: 62.50

Valid Until: November 17, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 59.47/56.00

Resistance: 61.60/62.37

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remained under pressure on Friday, marking its third consecutive daily decline as global risk sentiment soured and the U.S. Dollar strengthened across the board. The Kiwi traded around 0.5720, down roughly 0.45% for the week, retreating from its failed attempt to breach the 0.5800 resistance earlier in the week.

The decline comes amid a combination of soft economic data from China, hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, and renewed caution among investors over the global growth outlook — a mix that has left high-beta currencies like the NZD exposed.

Fresh signs of slowing momentum in China — New Zealand’s largest trading partner — added to the Kiwi’s woes. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October fell to 49.0, down from 49.8 in September and missing market forecasts of 49.6. This marks the second straight month of contraction, driven by weak domestic demand, supply chain bottlenecks, and subdued external orders.

The disappointing figures underscored the lingering headwinds facing China’s post-pandemic recovery. For New Zealand, whose export economy is heavily reliant on Chinese demand for agricultural and dairy products, such readings often translate into weaker trade prospects and a softer currency outlook.

“The ongoing deterioration in Chinese manufacturing activity continues to dampen regional sentiment,” said a Wellington-based trader. “The NZD is particularly vulnerable when investors start reducing risk exposure in Asia-Pacific markets.”

Further weighing on the Kiwi were remarks from Prasanna Gai, a member of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee, who warned that escalating U.S. tariffs and global trade disruptions are creating a “negative demand shock” for the New Zealand economy. Speaking at a policy forum in Melbourne, Gai cautioned that these headwinds could amplify the challenges already facing New Zealand’s restrained growth outlook.

He added that while the RBNZ’s easing measures have provided some support, “the cumulative impact of global uncertainty and tighter financial conditions has offset much of the stimulus,” hinting at the potential need for additional rate cuts in the coming months.

Gai’s comments echoed the RBNZ’s dovish tone in recent meetings, where policymakers have signaled growing concern over persistent inflationary pressures coupled with slowing growth momentum. The combination of weak global demand and domestic fragility has put the central bank in a difficult balancing act — easing enough to support activity without reigniting price pressures.

Adding to the NZD’s downward pressure was a stronger U.S. Dollar, which extended its gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a more hawkish stance than markets anticipated. Following a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, Powell stressed that another reduction in December was “not a foregone conclusion,” suggesting the central bank remains cautious about over-easing monetary policy amid resilient labor data and sticky inflation.

That message triggered a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with short-term maturities climbing sharply as traders scaled back expectations for aggressive Fed easing into year-end. The resulting dollar strength has weighed heavily on most G10 currencies, particularly those sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment like the Kiwi and Aussie.

“Powell’s tone caught investors off guard,” said a currency strategist at ANZ. “Markets were positioned for a dovish confirmation, but instead they got a reminder that the Fed is still data-dependent. That pivot sent yields and the dollar higher, leaving the Kiwi on the defensive.”

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has broken below a key short-term bullish channel, intensifying downside momentum. The pair’s failure to hold above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) confirms renewed selling pressure, with the next immediate support seen near 0.5700, followed by 0.5660 — the October low.

Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have turned south, reflecting an increase in bearish momentum and signaling the potential for deeper losses if sentiment fails to stabilize. On the upside, the 0.5800 level now stands as a critical resistance zone, and only a decisive break above it could shift the near-term outlook back toward neutrality.

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5720

STOP LOSS: 0.5770

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5660