The EUR/GBP pair consolidated near a five-month high around 0.8800 on Thursday, buoyed by a broadly steady Euro and a fragile Pound Sterling. The divergence between the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious optimism and the United Kingdom’s faltering domestic outlook has reignited buying interest in the cross, underscoring the widening policy gap between Frankfurt and London.

The ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged, as expected — maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4%, and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank emphasized that inflation remains close to its medium-term 2% target, signaling no urgency for further easing. The policy statement struck a balanced tone, highlighting both resilience and risk: while Eurozone growth continues to hold firm, the global economic backdrop remains riddled with uncertainties, from ongoing trade tensions to geopolitical flare-ups.

At her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde maintained a cautiously confident stance. She acknowledged that “the outlook remains uncertain,” but emphasized that underlying inflation trends are broadly consistent with the ECB’s price stability objective. Lagarde also cited the Eurozone’s strong labor market and the delayed benefits of prior rate cuts as reasons for stability in economic activity. Yet, she warned that external risks — particularly the war in Ukraine and fragile global trade dynamics — could still weigh on the medium-term outlook.

Notably, Lagarde pointed out that a stronger Euro could dampen imported inflation pressures, potentially complicating the ECB’s task of maintaining price stability. At the same time, she cautioned that higher defense spending across member states might inject fresh inflationary pressures, suggesting that the central bank will continue to take a data-dependent approach rather than committing to any pre-defined policy path.

Economic data out of Germany earlier in the day provided additional reassurance to the ECB. Preliminary figures showed annual CPI inflation easing slightly to 2.3% in October, down from 2.4% in September, marginally above forecasts. Similarly, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) — the ECB’s preferred inflation measure — slipped to 2.3% year-on-year. While the readings confirm disinflation progress, they also highlight the challenge of achieving further moderation without risking growth momentum.

Across the Channel, the Pound Sterling remains on the defensive. Traders are increasingly concerned that the UK economy could face deeper structural headwinds following the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) decision to cut productivity growth forecasts by 0.3%, a downgrade that could expand the fiscal deficit by £20 billion. The revision arrives just weeks ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 26, putting additional pressure on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to balance fiscal prudence with growth incentives.

This weaker outlook reinforces expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may soon pivot toward a more dovish policy stance. Money markets are now pricing in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, while Goldman Sachs and other analysts suggest the first rate reduction could come as early as next week. The possibility of an accelerated easing cycle contrasts sharply with the ECB’s steady-hand approach, driving renewed upward momentum in EUR/GBP.

From a technical standpoint, the pair’s price action has turned decisively bullish. EUR/GBP broke through a key weekly resistance with conviction, invalidating previous bearish projections. The breakout suggests renewed buying momentum, with price expected to retest the broken border zone before potentially extending gains toward the 0.8900 area — a level aligned with the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.

Traders are closely monitoring short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities, particularly near the low-volume node identified around 0.8770–0.8780. Sustained closes above 0.8800 could confirm the formation of a bullish continuation pattern, while a break below 0.8750 would be needed to challenge the upward bias.

BUY EURGBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8790

STOP LOSS: 0.8710

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8900

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday, as investors responded positively to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance despite a widely expected rate cut. The USD/CHF pair rose around 0.20% on the day, trading near the 0.8000 level, as market participants recalibrated their expectations for further policy easing.

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, meeting market forecasts. However, the tone of the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference were notably cautious about the path of future rate cuts. Powell emphasized that an additional reduction in December was “far from a foregone conclusion,” signaling that the central bank intends to proceed carefully given the recent volatility in inflation and mixed economic indicators.

This statement prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of another rate cut this year. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut fell sharply to 70% after the meeting, down from nearly 90% prior. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the combination of Powell’s hawkish rhetoric and a divided vote within the Federal Open Market Committee reinforced support for the U.S. dollar, as the Fed’s tone suggested a firmer commitment to managing inflation rather than pursuing aggressive easing.

The dollar’s resilience was also underpinned by improving global sentiment following an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Beijing. The United States and China announced a one-year trade truce that includes mutual concessions to roll back some tariffs and relax export restrictions. As part of the agreement, China pledged to resume imports of key U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans and corn, while the U.S. agreed to reduce certain tariffs on Chinese goods. Beijing also moved to lift restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals, easing concerns in sectors dependent on advanced manufacturing and technology.

The truce comes as a relief to global markets, which have been rattled by trade tensions that slowed global growth and dampened investor confidence throughout the year. Although the deal stops short of resolving deeper structural issues between the two economic superpowers, it provides a window of stability and has revived appetite for risk assets, including equities and commodity-linked currencies. For the Swiss franc, which traditionally benefits from risk aversion, the improved market mood weakened its safe-haven appeal, allowing USD/CHF to edge higher.

Meanwhile, recent economic data from Switzerland showed tentative signs of recovery. The ZEW Expectations Index for October rebounded sharply to -7.7 from -46.4 in September, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook among analysts and investors. Additionally, the KOF Leading Indicator climbed to 101.3 from 98.0, surpassing market expectations and indicating stronger forward momentum for the Swiss economy. Nevertheless, the franc remained subdued as broader market forces favored the dollar.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has broken above a key resistance zone between 0.80082 and 0.80201, confirming renewed bullish momentum. The breakout has transformed this area into a fresh support base, suggesting the potential for continued upward movement. The pair’s pivot point near 0.8000 has held firm, acting as a springboard for buyers to regain control. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages, are tilting upward, pointing to sustained buying interest.

If the pair maintains its footing above the 0.8000 threshold, the next resistance target stands around 0.80540, corresponding to a recent swing high. A successful breach above this level would reinforce the bullish trend and open the path toward 0.8080 in the short term. On the downside, a drop below 0.8000 could trigger a mild correction toward 0.7975, though the broader structure continues to favor the upside.

BUY USCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.80150

STOP LOSS: 0.7980

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8080

Recent US Q3 GDP preliminary reading showed a +2.7% annualised QoQ growth rate, exceeding expectations and indicating that economic resilience remains strong. Meanwhile, Fed officials have generally adopted a cautious tone, noting that inflation risks are not fully resolved; market expectations for a December rate cut have clearly cooled. This has kept US yields elevated and the dollar index hovering above the 99.00 handle, broadly weighing on non-USD currencies.

In contrast, New Zealand’s domestic recovery remains weak. Latest CPI data shows that although inflation has fallen from last year’s peak, it remains above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range; at the same time, housing and exports remain sluggish and business confidence continues to stay at low levels. The market broadly expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates unchanged for the coming months, in order to observe further movements in inflation and the labour market.

Additionally, global risk appetite has recently diminished. Tensions in the Middle East, oil volatility and weakness in Asian equity markets have all increased safe-haven flows into the dollar, which also places pressure on higher-beta currencies such as the Kiwi.

From a technical structure viewpoint, NZDUSD has formed a clear downward channel over the past two weeks, with the price repeatedly capped by a descending trendline near 0.5800. Short-term support lies at 0.5735 (last week’s low). If this level is breached, a further drop toward 0.5700 or even 0.5650 may follow.

Conversely, if price can hold above 0.5820 convincingly, a short-term rebound could open toward 0.5880. However, the RSI is still below 50 and the MACD fast line is below the zero axis, indicating that momentum remains bearish.

Overall, if the US economy continues to outperform expectations and the dollar stays strong, NZDUSD may gravitate toward the year-to-date low near 0.5600. Only a hawkish turn by the RBNZ or a broad dollar weakening could enable a trend rebound in the Kiwi.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.5777

Target Price: 0.5600

Stop Loss: 0.5860

Valid Until: November 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 0.5735 / 0.5710 / 0.5682

Resistance Levels: 0.5802 / 0.5820 / 0.5845

Following the release of GDP data from Germany and the euro area, the EURUSD exchange rate remained stable. Traders are treading cautiously ahead of the ECB's imminent interest-rate decision. Markets widely expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at its October meeting, which will be the third consecutive hold, and see no policy shift through the end of 2025. Attention is also centered on unemployment figures for both Germany and the euro zone, as well as on Germany's CPI.

Following their high-profile meeting in South Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from the current 57% to 47%. He also stated that the rare-earth dispute has been resolved, ensuring that no additional restrictions will be imposed on China's exports of critical minerals. In addition, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that "both sides should focus on the long-term interests of cooperation."

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure amid uncertainty over the Fed's policy stance in December. Policymakers acknowledge that inflationary pressures could broadly pick up in the second half of the year, yet this is not seen as sufficient to preclude a further reduction in the federal funds rate. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized, however, that the likelihood of another cut in December is far from assured.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved the rate reduction by a 10-to-2 vote, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%–4%. The Fed also announced that balance-sheet runoff will cease effective 1 December, when maturing agency debt will be reinvested into Treasury bills.

Among them, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented from the decision, advocating for a 50 bps rate cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid favored keeping rates unchanged. The statement continued to use the previous description of the labor market, saying that "employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen but remains low as of August." The statement added that "recent indicators are consistent with the above changes" and "the downside risks to employment have increased in recent months."

The Fed stated that existing indicators suggest that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, reiterating that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and is still at a relatively high level.

On the daily timeframe, following a death cross signal on EURUSD, the MACD fast and slow lines have dropped below the zero axis, indicating the market has entered a bearish phase. The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with moving averages diverging downward. Price is oscillating lower along the EMA12. The RSI reading of 45 reflects pessimistic market sentiment. If the pair breaks below 1.16 again, it will likely decline toward the previous low of 1.154 and the EMA200 level near 1.139.

From a weekly perspective, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, with price oscillating around the middle band. After the MACD death cross, the fast and slow lines are pulling back toward the zero axis but still have some distance to go, suggesting the correction is not yet complete. The RSI at 55 shows gradually lower highs, indicating a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Once the middle Bollinger Band fails to hold as support, price will likely drop toward the EMA50 or even the lower Bollinger Band.

Therefore, the short-term trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions on rallies.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1613

Target Price: 1.12

Stop Loss: 1.182

Support: 1.145/1.14/1.12

Resistance: 1.182/1.192/1.2

The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy stance for a sixth consecutive meeting, yet the 7-2 voting outcome has exerted pressure on the yen. As trade tensions ease and domestic inflation picks up, BOJ officials are expected to discuss conditions necessary to resume policy tightening. However, the newly elected Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, advocates for an accommodative monetary stance and opposes premature tightening measures, complicating the policy outlook. Japan's October monthly economic report indicates a modest recovery, supported by steady growth in capital expenditure. The report adopts a cautiously optimistic outlook, suggesting that Japan's economy, as the world's fourth-largest, is expected to gradually rebound alongside improvements in employment conditions. However, it also warns that uncertainties in U.S. trade policies pose downside risks to the recovery. Supported by increased investment in the software and digitalization sectors, Japanese capital expenditure shows a moderate uptick; private consumption exhibits signs of rebound, though its pace remains behind capital investment and exports due to ongoing inflationary pressures. Overall export stability persists, with sustained robust demand within Asia, though exports to the U.S. have declined since July due to tariff increases. Additionally, the report highlights a rise in corporate insolvencies in September influenced by labor shortages, though the persistence of this trend remains uncertain.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second consecutive easing decision and the fifth cut since September 2024. The Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. economic activity is expanding modestly, employment growth is slowing, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly yet remains low. Inflation remains marginally above the target. The committee stated it will continue to assess data and risks to ensure the attainment of maximum employment and the 2% inflation goal. After the Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference, he stated that the balance sheet reduction has concluded, and potentially, an expansion may be warranted in the future to sustain liquidity and stabilize interest rates within the financial system. He emphasized that monetary policy remains data-dependent with no predetermined trajectory, and the possibility of a rate cut by year-end remains uncertain. Due to the government shutdown, policymaking has partly relied on employment data up to August; however, moderate inflation upticks suggest that year-end PCE inflation could approach approximately 3%. Despite signs of a softening labor market raising concerns, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance overall, with future policy paths tending toward prudence and a slightly hawkish bias.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards with the SMAs diverging positively, and the price has broken above the EMA12 with a strong bullish engulfing candlestick, continuing its upward momentum. The MACD exhibits a golden cross, and the RSI stands at 63, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market. A breakout above key psychological level and the upper Bollinger Band is highly probable, with target prices around 154 and 154.6. In the 1W timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are similarly widening upward, and the SMAs are diverging positively with a golden cross formation. Meanwhile, the MACD shows an "angel's kiss" pattern, with the MACD line and signal line returning above the zero-axis, confirming ongoing bullish momentum. The RSI at 64 further signals strong bullish sentiment, with the potential for the price to advance towards 157 and 159. It is recommended to go long at the lows in the short term.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 153.4

Target Price: 158.8

Stop Loss: 150

Support: 150, 148.5, 146.6

Resistance: 155, 156.7, 158.8

Spot EUR/CAD is quoted near 1.617–1.618 in Asia trade, modestly above yesterday’s post-BoC low, with public dashboards printing today’s range roughly 1.6170–1.6182. The macro mix leans tactically EUR-positive against CAD. The BoC’s 25 bp cut to 2.25% softens Canada’s short-end carry and came alongside a weaker growth outlook tied to US trade frictions, limiting reasons to buy CAD on policy grounds into year-end.

By contrast, the ECB is expected to hold after this year’s easing, which keeps the euro’s rate differential from deteriorating further. Oil is not providing a strong CAD tailwind this morning, with WTI hovering near $60 and Brent near $64.6, a neutral setting for energy-beta. With equity volatility contained in the mid-teens, EUR/CAD dips have met responsive buying rather than momentum selling.

Positioning is cautiously inclined to fade CAD strength on rallies while the BoC’s easing bias is still fresh and growth projections have been revised down. The bank’s communication hinted cuts may be nearing completion but did not deliver a hawkish turn, so the burden of support for CAD shifts back to commodities and risk sentiment. With crude stabilizing rather than surging and the VIX near 16–17, discretionary accounts prefer to buy EUR/CAD pullbacks ahead of the ECB, especially with yesterday’s high-1.61s proving sticky support on multiple intraday tests

Price is riding just above the Bollinger mid-line after rejecting the lower band near 1.615–1.616, a continuation pattern that typically precedes another upper-band check if the 20-period mean holds. On Ichimoku, price is rotating on or slightly above the Kumo, with Tenkan attempting to hold at or marginally above Kijun; repeated defenses of the cloud top in the 1.6160–1.6165 area define a tight buy zone. Stochastic (5/3/3) is turning up from mid-range; a clean %K re-cross above %D from the 40–50 band on a shallow dip usually precedes an upper-band extension.

Immediate resistance sits near 1.624–1.625, which capped on 29/10 and offers the first logical objective if buyers maintain control; failure to hold the cloud would risk a deeper probe toward 1.614–1.615 before bids likely re-emerge given the post-BoC backdrop. Intraday references from public feeds show today’s prints clustered around 1.617–1.618, consistent with this buy-the-dip framework.

Entry: 1.6187

TP: 1.6245

SL: 1.6138