Today’s EURAUD price action is within a tight intraday band near 1.7707, with highs around 1.7754 and lows near 1.7687, showing fading upside momentum despite prior range expansion. The pair’s current level is within its 52-week range (1.6353–1.8558) but has recently struggled around the 1.77–1.78 region.

Macro drivers are mixed but slightly bearish for the euro: the U.S. dollar weakness driven by softer employment data and uncertain rate paths can indirectly pressure EUR crosses as safe-haven AUD demand adjusts relative risk flows, while the European Central Bank is broadly expected to hold rates steady, reducing upside catalysts for the euro. At the same time, recent macro data shows the Australian dollar showing resilience after broader commodity market support and stronger local indicators, suggesting AUD could absorb weakness in risk sentiment better than the euro.

On the M15 timeframe, this translates into a scenario where minor rebounds toward intraday resistance are met with selling interest, reflecting an overall lack of conviction above current levels.

Short-term sentiment around EURAUD is cautious and slightly bearish. Traders appear reluctant to push EURAUD significantly higher beyond short-term resistance near 1.7750–1.7780, with recent sentiment skew showing more participants expecting corrective declines than continuation up from current levels.

This reflects broader risk dynamics where the euro, lacking fresh bullish catalysts, has less traction relative to the AUD, which benefits from commodity correlations and steadier macro flows. While sentiment gauges vary slightly by provider, the prevailing theme is that upside attempts are being met with supply rather than strong buying, reinforcing a sell-on-rallies bias for EURAUD in the short term.

Bollinger Bands (20,2) on the M15 chart show price probing the upper band early in the session but failing to hold above it, implying that bullish momentum is weakening and volatility is compressing toward the mid-band rather than expanding upward. A failure to close convincingly above the mid-line (20-period SMA) often signals distribution, where buyers are exhausted and shorts are stepping in.

Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15 indicates price hugging or dipping below the lower edge of the cloud after brief spikes, with the Tenkan (conversion) line struggling to sustain above the Kijun (base) line another technical hint that the short-term trend favors downside pressure. In such contexts, cloud resistance above price often acts like a ceiling that keeps rallies capped unless a breakout occurs.

Stoch (5,3,3) is oscillating near neutral after recent rollovers from the overbought region, meaning that momentum has room to pivot downward again. A fresh downward crossover while price fails to exceed recent highs will reinforce bearish continuation potential.

Entry: 1.7730

Take Profit: 1.7680

Stop Loss: 1.7780

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading near $90000 USDT, with short-term price action showing a failure to sustain a reclaim above the round-number resistance around $88,000.

On an M15 chart, this translates into lower highs being formed below the recent intraday bounce zone and a series of close-below pivot reactions rather than clean continuation upward. That price structure hints at supply dominance near intraday resistances, aligning with a broader market backdrop where flows remain cautious and short-term sellers are more active than buyers.

Sentiment in the BTC market is tilted toward “extreme fear” as indicated by sentiment gauges and trade flows. A low Fear & Greed index reading reflects panic selling and traders stepping aside rather than chasing spikes.

Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered continued outflows, signaling that institutional demand is not just dormant but net negative on consecutive sessions, which often precedes deeper corrective moves as liquidity drains from the market.

These sentiment signals make rebound rallies vulnerable to aggressive selling, especially on shorter timeframes like M15 where market participants react quickly to every failed attempt at reclaiming resistance.

Price remains below or near the mid-band after repeated tests of the upper band failed to produce strong continuation. On M15, this is bearish structure — with bands not expanding upward and candles closing below the mid-line, sellers are likely to remain in control. Repeated rejections at the mid and upper band without follow-through often foreshadow volatility contraction to the downside.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Weak M15 momentum is evident where price action struggles to stay above the Ichimoku cloud after a brief bounce. If BTC cannot hold above the cloud and the conversion line (Tenkan) remains below the base line (Kijun), this signals bearish continuation pressure.

Stoch (5,3,3): Stochastic oscillators on M15 are prone to move from oversold toward mid-range and then roll over again — a behavior typical during corrections within a downtrend. A fresh downward crossing from the mid zone reinforces short-term selling pressure.

Entry: 90000 if price shows clear M15 rejection (long wick or bearish engulfing candle) below the recent intraday resistance and fails to close above the mid-Bollinger band.

Take Profit: 88000

Stop Loss: 91000

Today’s gold price action reflects defensive positioning following the latest U.S. employment data, where rising unemployment and softer labor market metrics reinforced expectations of more accommodative Fed policy ahead. Spot gold is trading around $4,318–$4,330/oz, within a daily range of approximately $4,302 to $4,346/oz, showing resilience after short-term dips.

The broader background is a multi-session uptrend, with gold marking a significant weekly gain and flirting with record territory amid downside risk to growth and persistent inflation concerns. Safe-haven buying has been reinforced by macro jitters and geopolitical unrest, keeping premiums elevated even when risk assets show mixed performance. Gold’s extended uptrend means bulls are not yet exhausted and, on the M15 timeframe, price frequently tests support and seeks fresh highs as traders recalibrate after each pullback.

Short-term sentiment remains tilted toward bullish conviction for gold, driven by both fundamental and technical setups. The recent rise in gold prices has coincided with weaker U.S. labor data, which tends to bolster rate-cut expectations and supports the narrative that real yields could stay lower for longer, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Additionally, silver’s record surge and strength in other precious metals reinforce a broader risk-off and safe-haven demand profile across commodities. This positioning suggests that dips are more likely to attract buying interest rather than triggering prolonged selloffs. While sentiment is cautiously optimistic rather than euphoric, this environment is healthy for controlled upside continuation rather than exhaustion, especially on shorter timeframes such as M15, where traders look for entry on pullbacks rather than moments of peak fear.

On M15, Bollinger Bands (20,2) show price consolidating above the mid-band, with frequent probes toward the upper band. This pattern suggests that the recent corrective declines have not structurally broken the M15 bullish environment; instead, they represent typical mean reversion within a broad uptrend. The mid-band is acting as dynamic support rather than resistance, indicating short-term buyers consistently step in near value zones.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) structure on M15 shows price maintaining levels above or within the lower edge of the cloud after retracements, with the Tenkan (conversion) line pulling above the Kijun (base) line when the market finds support. This alignment conversion line above base line after a pullback is a classic bullish momentum sign.

Finally, the Stochastic (5,3,3) oscillator typically cycles from oversold to renewed upward crossovers during corrective lows, implying that each pullback has been a buying opportunity rather than a reversal of trend. Together, these indicators support a continuation bias in gold’s short-term trend, with higher probability for upside breakout than for structural failure.

Entry: $4,320

Take Profit: $4,365

Stop Loss: $4,295

Today’s driver is not “general USD strength”; it is a UK-specific repricing event. UK CPI fell to 3.2% YoY (Nov) from 3.6% (Oct), below consensus and even below the BoE’s recent projection, which immediately increased conviction that the BoE will cut rates at the next decision.

In FX, that matters because it widens the perceived policy gap versus the U.S. at the margin: sterling loses carry support precisely when it needs it most to sustain rallies. Reuters notes the pound fell about 0.7% vs USD after the print, signaling this was a genuine repricing rather than routine noise.

For “today’s numbers,” GBPUSD is quoted around the 1.342x area in daily data feeds (open near 1.3424, with a tight daily range printed in some trackers). The critical M15 insight is that intraday rebounds can happen, but they tend to be sold until price proves it can build acceptance back above the level where the CPI-driven selloff accelerated.

Sentiment is not simply bearish; it is “sell-into-relief” because the catalyst is clean and recent. When inflation undershoots broadly (headline, core, services), traders don’t need to guess: they mechanically pull forward easing expectations, and GBP rallies become opportunities to reduce exposure rather than add risk. The second layer is timing: with the BoE meeting risk right in front of the market, participants prefer to own optionality (stay light) rather than hold unhedged sterling longs. That tends to create choppy M15 retracements, but with downward “gravity” as soon as liquidity returns. Meanwhile, U.S. yields holding around 4.17% reduces the odds of a sustained USD selloff that could otherwise rescue GBPUSD intraday.

Bollinger Bands (20,2): after a catalyst drop, the most common profitable short is not “sell any low,” but “sell the first failed mean reversion.” On M15, if price snaps back toward the mid-band (20-SMA) and then stalls, it usually signals distribution, with sellers using the average as a reference to reload. A clean bearish read is when candles repeatedly fail to close above the mid-band and start leaning back toward the lower band.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): the sell thesis is strongest if price is below the cloud and the cloud overhead acts as supply. In CPI-driven moves, the first cloud retest often becomes the decision point: acceptance back into/above the cloud weakens the short; rejection at the cloud strengthens it.

Stoch (5,3,3): you want to see Stoch recover from oversold (post-drop), then roll over again while price fails to make a higher high. That “momentum reset without recovery” is a classic continuation signature on M15.

Entry: 1.3425

Take Profit: 1.3265

Stop Loss: 1.3465

The Bank of Canada has decided to keep interest rates steady at 2.25%, considering the policy to be "roughly appropriate," which suppresses market expectations of recent aggressive easing measures and supports the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, Canadian inflation data shows the overall CPI stabilizing at 2.2%, with the core inflation rate dropping to 2.8%, the lowest in ten months, reinforcing confidence that price pressures are aligning with the Bank of Canada's inflation target. On Wednesday, crude oil prices extended prior declines, with Brent crude dropping below US$60 per barrel for the first time since May, reflecting increasingly evident signs of global supply exceeding demand. Amid increased production from OPEC members and non-Middle Eastern countries, the International Energy Agency forecasts a significant oversupply in the global oil market this year and next, with the surplus potentially reaching record highs next year. Market structure indicators showed that some Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf Coast crude grades briefly shifted to contango, signaling rising inventory pressures, although some regions maintained backwardation, indicating localized supply tightness. While declining oil prices partly ease inflationary pressures, expectations of an imminent resolution to the Ukraine conflict continue to exert downward pressure on market sentiment. Ukraine has indicated efforts to negotiate a legally binding security arrangement, with recent rounds of talks held in Berlin between Ukrainian representatives and U.S. officials. Market observers note that the news cycle surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation is weighing on spot prices, but the prospects for substantive breakthroughs in negotiations remain uncertain. The decline in oil prices alleviates inflationary pressures and provides major economies' central banks with increased policy flexibility. In the United States, recent data shows a gradual slowdown in economic momentum. Non-farm employment rebounded in November after significant declines, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years. However, this data is limited in its reliability due to statistical distortions caused by the prolonged federal government shutdown. Employment growth is concentrated in healthcare and construction sectors, while government and transportation-related positions continue to decline, with wage growth also decelerating, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market.

The mixed labor market data has not bolstered market expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The November employment report showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, slightly above forecasts, but the October figures were significantly revised downward, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market. Retail sales remained flat month-over-month, further suggesting waning consumer demand. Federal Reserve officials are divided on whether additional monetary policy easing will be necessary next year. The median forecast among Fed policymakers is a single rate cut in 2026, though some policymakers anticipate no further cuts. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in two rate reductions next year. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to interview Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller on Wednesday to assess his suitability for the Fed Chair position. An October poll indicated that Waller is the economists' leading choice, as his rationale for rate cuts this year is viewed as the most logically consistent and capable of resolving internal Fed disagreements.

In the 1D timeframe, the price has broken below the EMA200 and is trending along the lower Bollinger Band, but a bullish engulfing pattern has emerged, breaking out of the downtrend channel, indicating a potential short-term rebound. After the MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line fell below the zero-axis, signaling a shift to a bearish trend. The RSI at 32 indicates the market is in oversold territory, suggesting the decline is not yet exhausted but a rebound could occur at any time. In the 4H timeframe, Bollinger Bands are converging and narrowing, with SMAs converged. Following the MACD golden cross, the MACD line and signal line are retracing toward the zero-axis, yet still have some distance to go, implying the rebound is incomplete. Resistance levels are near the EMA50 and EMA200, at approximately 1.381 and 1.393, respectively. The RSI at 48 indicates a neutral market sentiment. It is recommended to go long before going short.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.378

Target Price: 1.42

Stop Loss: 1.357

Support: 1.373, 1.37, 1.357

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44

According to the UK Office for National Statistics, headline CPI inflation dropped to 3.2% in November. Following the release, GBPUSD slid to the 1.333 area.

S&P Global figures published on Tuesday showed the UK Composite PMI at 52.1, beating both the consensus forecast of 51.4 and the prior 51.2. Both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs jumped to 52.1 and 51.2 respectively, surpassing market expectations. The improvement in the dominant services sector lifted sentiment and lent GBPUSD some support.

Nevertheless, money markets still price in a Bank Rate cut on Thursday, capping upside for the pair. A 25 bp reduction to 3.75% is fully discounted for the December MPC meeting.

"We continue to think the BoE will cut faster than markets currently price, with the Bank Rate declining to 3% by the end of 2026. The PMI data does not change that view," said Jefferies economist Modupe Adegbembo.

Fed officials remain divided over the necessity of further policy accommodation in 2026. The central tendency of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a solitary 25 bp reduction in the federal funds target range for 2026. However, a non-trivial cohort of Committee members now deem the policy rate to be at, or near, its terminal level.

In contrast, traders are pricing in two cuts over the same horizon, with the CME Group's FedWatch model assigning a 75.6% probability that the Fed will stand pat at the January meeting, up from roughly 70% a week earlier.

November's non-farm payroll report sent mixed signals about the pace of labour-market cooling: hiring rebounded after October's weather-distorted plunge, yet the unemployment rate rose in tandem. Both prints were heavily contaminated by the recent federal-government shutdown, and investors broadly regard them as insufficient to alter the near-term policy outlook. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that payrolls expanded by 64,000 in November, beating the consensus forecast of 50,000, while the October print—revised down by 105,000 after more than 150,000 federal workers accepted deferred-buyout packages—now shows a decline of 105,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% from 4.5%, matching the median survey estimate for end-2025 that has prevailed over the past three quarters.

A textbook dark-cloud-cover formation has appeared on Cable's daily chart. The MACD fast line is within one session of crossing below the slow line, while RSI has completed a lower-high sequence, warning of an imminent corrective leg. A decisive close beneath the EMA12 would invalidate the bounce and expose layered support at the EMA200 (1.325) and the lower Bollinger band (1.303). RSI sits at 55, classic watch-and-wait terrain.

On the weekly chart, price remains compressed beneath the middle Bollinger. MACD has mean-reverted to the zero axis but has not yet registered a bullish crossover. A successful golden cross would open the upper Bollinger and the prior structural high. Failure would re-target the EMA200. RSI is 52 and printing descending tops, signalling waning momentum.

Therefore, traders are recommended to sell the rally, then buy the dip.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.338

Target Price: 1.29

Stop Loss: 1.35

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance Levels: 1.34/1.342/1.35