EUR/CAD firms after BoC’s 25 bp cut while ECB seen on hold

Forex

Summary:

EUR/CAD market steadies around 1.617–1.618 after the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.25% on 29/10 and signalled it may be near the end of easing, while the ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged today...

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.61870

Entry Price

1.62450

1.61380

1.61059 +0.00196 +0.12%

11.3

Pips

Loss

1.61380

1.61757

Exit Price

1.61870

Entry Price

1.62450

Overview

Spot EUR/CAD is quoted near 1.617–1.618 in Asia trade, modestly above yesterday’s post-BoC low, with public dashboards printing today’s range roughly 1.6170–1.6182. The macro mix leans tactically EUR-positive against CAD. The BoC’s 25 bp cut to 2.25% softens Canada’s short-end carry and came alongside a weaker growth outlook tied to US trade frictions, limiting reasons to buy CAD on policy grounds into year-end.

By contrast, the ECB is expected to hold after this year’s easing, which keeps the euro’s rate differential from deteriorating further. Oil is not providing a strong CAD tailwind this morning, with WTI hovering near $60 and Brent near $64.6, a neutral setting for energy-beta. With equity volatility contained in the mid-teens, EUR/CAD dips have met responsive buying rather than momentum selling.

Market sentiment

Positioning is cautiously inclined to fade CAD strength on rallies while the BoC’s easing bias is still fresh and growth projections have been revised down. The bank’s communication hinted cuts may be nearing completion but did not deliver a hawkish turn, so the burden of support for CAD shifts back to commodities and risk sentiment. With crude stabilizing rather than surging and the VIX near 16–17, discretionary accounts prefer to buy EUR/CAD pullbacks ahead of the ECB, especially with yesterday’s high-1.61s proving sticky support on multiple intraday tests

Technical analysis

EUR/CAD firms after BoC’s 25 bp cut while ECB seen on hold_1

Price is riding just above the Bollinger mid-line after rejecting the lower band near 1.615–1.616, a continuation pattern that typically precedes another upper-band check if the 20-period mean holds. On Ichimoku, price is rotating on or slightly above the Kumo, with Tenkan attempting to hold at or marginally above Kijun; repeated defenses of the cloud top in the 1.6160–1.6165 area define a tight buy zone. Stochastic (5/3/3) is turning up from mid-range; a clean %K re-cross above %D from the 40–50 band on a shallow dip usually precedes an upper-band extension.

Immediate resistance sits near 1.624–1.625, which capped on 29/10 and offers the first logical objective if buyers maintain control; failure to hold the cloud would risk a deeper probe toward 1.614–1.615 before bids likely re-emerge given the post-BoC backdrop. Intraday references from public feeds show today’s prints clustered around 1.617–1.618, consistent with this buy-the-dip framework.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 1.6187

TP: 1.6245

SL: 1.6138

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1615–1.1620 after the Fed cut rates by 25 bps on 29/10 while signaling that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” and markets expect the ECB to keep policy unchanged today...

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16203

Entry Price

1.16850

1.15780

1.16519 +0.00093 +0.08%

42.3

Pips

Loss

1.15780

Exit Price

1.16203

Entry Price

1.16850

Overview

Through Asia trade, spot clustered around 1.1615 with public dashboards marking today’s prints roughly 1.1601–1.1620, modestly firmer on the session. The macro mix leans tactically euro-supportive: the FOMC’s 25 bps cut lowers the USD carry impulse at the margin, while the ECB is widely expected to stand pat after a two-percentage-point easing cycle through June, a stance that prevents fresh deterioration in EUR-USD rate differentials.

The dollar backdrop is mixed but not aggressive; DXY is hovering near ~99 intraday rather than breaking higher, which limits immediate headwinds for EUR/USD. With VIX sitting in the mid-to-high teens and no fresh risk shock, dips into intraday support have found responsive buying rather than momentum selling.

Market sentiment

Positioning is cautiously risk-on for the euro and measured for the dollar. The Fed’s cut accompanied by a non-committal December message removed a near-term hawkish tail, but not enough to drive broad USD liquidation; traders are instead leaning on event-driven ranges with a bias to buy EUR/USD pullbacks ahead of the ECB.

Headlines out of the euro area stress a hold-steady approach as inflation hovers close to 2%, reducing the odds of an ECB-led downside surprise for the euro in the immediate term. With volatility gauges subdued and the government-shutdown data fog complicating US macro reads, discretionary accounts prefer to fade dollar upticks while awaiting clearer guidance into November, which keeps the pair underpinned above 1.16.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD edges higher as Fed cuts 25 bps and ECB seen on hold_1

Price is riding just above the Bollinger mid-line, and shallow pullbacks into the 20-period mean have bounced, a continuation pattern that typically precedes another upper-band test if momentum holds.

On Ichimoku, price is rotating on or above the cloud with Tenkan at or fractionally above Kijun; repeated defenses of the Kumo top in the 1.1605–1.1610 area define a tight buy zone. Stochastic (5/3/3) is rebuilding from mid-range; a clean %K re-cross above %D from the 40–50 band on a minor dip often triggers an upper-band extension. Immediate resistance is the 1.1645–1.1665 pocket where recent highs cluster; sustained acceptance above that zone opens a run toward 1.1685. Intraday references around 1.1616 as of today’s Asia session corroborate these levels.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 1.1610

TP: 1.1685

SL: 1.1578

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

This level will be closely monitored by bulls, as it demonstrates a marked weakening of the selling pressure, potentially opening the door for buyers to seize control from this zone.

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.61837

Entry Price

1.63610

1.61000

1.61059 +0.00196 +0.12%

82.9

Pips

Profit

1.61000

1.62666

Exit Price

1.61837

Entry Price

1.63610

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Tiff Macklem, sent a mixed signal to the markets following the recent rate cut. Macklem stated that the policy rate is now "roughly at the right level if inflation and activity evolve as projected," a comment interpreted by markets as surprisingly hawkish given the monetary easing. The BoC maintains its forecast that inflation will remain stable around 2% over the forecast horizon, even while slightly revising downward its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections for 2025 and 2026.

Macklem acknowledged that the Canadian economy continues to face significant headwinds, primarily stemming from restrictive U.S. trade policy and slowing global demand. Crucially, he emphasized the limited capacity of monetary policy to stimulate demand while keeping inflation low, given the economic damage inflicted by tariffs on key sectors like automotive, steel, aluminum, and lumber. The BoC now expects the GDP level to be approximately 1.5% lower by the end of 2026 compared to its January projection, as both weaker demand and lost capacity weigh heavily on growth. The central bank also highlighted a noticeable weakening in Canada's labor market, with the unemployment rate climbing to 7.1%.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, buoyed by contained inflation and signs of stabilization in the Eurozone economy.

However, market expectations for future policy have shifted significantly. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 80% probability of another rate cut in 2026, a substantial change from September, when hawkish comments from the ECB had effectively dismissed such a scenario, according to Reuters. All attention will be on President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting press conference for any indications regarding the future policy path. Any surprisingly hawkish commentary could provide short-term support to the single currency, the Euro (EUR).

Despite stabilizing economic data, persistent political uncertainty in France continues to weigh on sentiment towards the Euro, following Standard & Poor’s recent downgrade of the country’s sovereign rating, citing fragile public finances. Eurozone data remains mixed; Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to 0.6% in the third quarter, while retail consumption softened to 4.2% year-over-year. Technical Setup Favors EURCAD Rally from Oversold Levels_1

Technical Setup Favors EURCAD Rally from Oversold Levels_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD recently experienced a sharp downward impulse, reaching 1.6146 in the previous session—levels not seen since September 5th. This bearish move originated from the local high of 1.6468, which was attained on October 16th. However, the price has since recovered quickly above 1.6170, a zone that serves as local support and has triggered upward reactions on two prior occasions.

If the pair successfully holds this area and demonstrates a sustained bullish reaction, we could anticipate a new upward impulse targeting the 1.6361 local resistance level. On the 4-hour chart, the 100- and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely grouped at 1.6278 and 1.6289, respectively. These levels are likely to provide technical resistance along the path toward the 1.6361 objective.

Crucially, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29, a clear indication that the pair has entered oversold territory. This level will be closely monitored by bulls, as it demonstrates a marked weakening of the selling pressure, potentially opening the door for buyers to seize control from this zone. Conversely, a strong close below the 1.6170 support would imply a continuation of the bearish move, thereby invalidating the current bullish setup.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.6182

Target price: 1.6361

Stop loss: 1.6100

Validity: Nov 07, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The pound may remain under pressure due to rate cut expectations and growth concerns, and its movement is as boring as watching paint dry.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.33000

Entry Price

1.29950

1.34500

1.33248 -0.00064 -0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.29950

1.31947

Exit Price

1.33000

Entry Price

1.34500

Fundamentals

The pound may continue to weaken against the dollar in the near term due to rising market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and concerns over UK economic growth.

Last week's lower-than-expected UK inflation data prompted market bets that the Bank of England may cut interest rates again sooner than anticipated. We expect the EURGBP to rise to 0.9000, while the GBPUSD may fall below 1.3140. However, the pound could still rebound if UK Chancellor Reeves can create sufficient fiscal space in next month's budget to boost investor confidence.

According to British media reports, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is expected to face a blow in the upcoming budget announcement as the government's productivity forecast is significantly downgraded. We believe this adjustment could deal a blow to public finances exceeding £20 billion.

According to informed sources, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower its long-term productivity growth forecast by approximately 0.3 percentage points, increasing the likelihood of future tax hikes including income tax increases. According to calculations by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, each 0.1 percentage point downward revision in productivity forecasts would increase net public sector borrowing by approximately £7 billion in the 2029-30 fiscal year. Consequently, a 0.3 percentage point downward revision could widen the fiscal gap by as much as £21 billion.

Pound's Movement Is as Boring as Watching Paint Dry_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD fell below the 200-day SMA of 1.3200 today, hitting a three-month low and extending its downtrend from 1.3725. The intraday bias remains bearish, targeting the 1.3140 range (1.3142 marks the 38.2% retracement of the 1.2099 to 1.3787 range). Strong support is expected in this range to halt the decline and complete the corrective pattern since 1.3787.

On the upside, a break above the short-term resistance at 1.3368 would initially shift the intraday bias to neutral. However, a decisive decline below 1.3140 would form a double top pattern (1.3787/3725). Should market conditions deteriorate further, selling pressure could push prices below 1.3021.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3300

Target Price: 1.2995

Stop Loss: 1.3450

Valid Until: November 13, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3196, 1.3140, 1.3105

Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3303, 1.3368

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers above $4,000 as traders weigh the Fed’s upcoming rate decision, snapping a three-day losing streak amid cautious safe-haven buying.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4014.89

Entry Price

4120.00

3950.00

4207.37 +9.46 +0.23%

648.9

Pips

Loss

3950.00

3949.98

Exit Price

4014.89

Entry Price

4120.00

Gold prices staged a modest recovery on Wednesday, reclaiming the key $4,000 psychological level after briefly touching a three-week low near $3,886 on Tuesday. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,020, marking a gain of over 1.5% as investors rotated back into safe-haven assets, seeking protection against lingering macroeconomic uncertainties. This rebound ends a three-day losing streak, following a sharp retreat from last week’s historic high of $4,381—a decline of nearly 10% in just a few sessions.

The metal’s recent weakness had been largely driven by a prevailing risk-on sentiment in global markets, underpinned by optimism over US-China trade developments. Reports of progress in negotiations temporarily boosted investor confidence in equities and commodities linked to growth, reducing demand for gold as a hedge. The pullback saw gold finding interim support around the $3,900 mark, where buyers stepped in ahead of key US monetary policy events.

Attention has now shifted to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, scheduled for 18:00 GMT. Markets are pricing in the likelihood of a second consecutive 25-basis-point (bps) cut, which would bring the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, following September’s initial “risk-management” rate cut aimed at cushioning the economy from labor market pressures. While the rate cut itself is widely anticipated, traders are closely monitoring the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for hints regarding the trajectory of future monetary policy. Any indication of a prolonged easing cycle could provide further support for gold, potentially extending the current rebound, while a cautious tone or signals of a pause could limit upside momentum.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold’s recent intraday surge has been supported by early bullish signals in relative strength indicators, suggesting a corrective reversal against the short-term bearish trend. The metal appears poised to challenge the next key resistance level at $4,120. However, the persistence of negative pressure from trading below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) continues to weigh on the potential for a sustained recovery in the near term. Traders are therefore likely to watch intraday price action closely, balancing optimism for a rebound with caution over lingering technical headwinds.

Market commentators note that gold’s rebound is also underpinned by geopolitical concerns and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, which traditionally bolster the metal’s appeal. While the US equity market remains relatively resilient, the looming Fed decision injects a layer of volatility that could drive further short-term gains in precious metals. In the coming sessions, the interaction between monetary policy signals and risk sentiment will likely define gold’s trajectory, with analysts emphasizing that a decisive break above $4,050 could pave the way for a retest of the recent highs. Conversely, any failure to sustain above $4,000 may invite renewed selling pressure.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4015

STOP LOSS: 3950

TAKE PROFIT: 4120

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

USD/CAD drifts toward 1.3940 as investors await interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve, while markets also focus on US-China trade developments.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.39200

Entry Price

1.37000

1.40000

1.38226 +0.00079 +0.06%

80.0

Pips

Loss

1.37000

1.40000

Exit Price

1.39200

Entry Price

1.40000

The USD/CAD pair edged down toward 1.3910 during Wednesday’s European trading session, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of two of the most closely watched monetary policy announcements this week. Market participants are bracing for 25-basis-point rate cuts from both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve, which would mark the second consecutive easing move for each central bank. The anticipated decisions have kept trading activity in the Loonie pair muted, as investors look for guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates and broader economic momentum.

Investor sentiment is increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will loosen policy further. Inflationary pressures in the United States, while still present, are being seen as partly transitory, with tariffs contributing temporarily to elevated prices. Simultaneously, labor market conditions are showing signs of deterioration, prompting expectations that the Fed may continue easing to support growth. Traders are carefully evaluating the potential for additional rate cuts later in the year, making Wednesday’s announcement a critical moment for gauging market expectations.

Canada’s labor market data for September offered a mixed picture. The economy added 60,400 jobs, offsetting part of the 65,500 layoffs recorded in August. Despite this positive development, overall labor market trends remain subdued, with the unemployment rate holding at 7.1 percent. Analysts suggest that the Bank of Canada is likely to continue a measured approach to monetary easing, balancing the need to stimulate growth against persistent structural challenges in employment.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, the US Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded slightly higher at 98.90. The modest uptick in the DXY reflects investor caution as markets await clear signals on the path of interest rates. Adding to the backdrop of uncertainty is the US-China trade dialogue, with attention focused on Thursday’s scheduled meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Positive rhetoric from President Trump, who stated, “Things will work out very well with Xi tomorrow,” has fueled optimism that a constructive trade deal may emerge, potentially influencing short-term currency flows and broader risk sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Technically, USD/CAD has moved lower toward the 1.3940 support level, which coincides with previous intraday targets noted in earlier analyses. The pair remains under short-term bearish pressure, trading below its 50-day exponential moving average, which has intensified downward momentum. At the same time, the relative strength index shows early signs of a positive crossover after reaching oversold levels, suggesting that while losses may continue in the near term, a corrective rebound could be on the horizon.

Price action remains confined within a rising parallel channel that extends from the July lows. The pair recently encountered resistance near 1.4100, indicating early signs of structural fatigue at the upper boundary. Currently, USD/CAD is consolidating between 1.4000 and 1.3900, with bearish momentum gradually building. The relative strength index is displaying divergence through lower highs, signaling the potential for a corrective leg in the near term. Should bearish sentiment persist, the pair could move toward the next major support near 1.3700, while any rebound driven by risk-on sentiment or hawkish surprises could push it back toward the 1.4050–1.4100 range.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3920

STOP LOSS: 1.4000

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The US Dollar strengthened against the Swiss Franc on Wednesday, climbing to session highs near 0.7980 as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy decision.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.79701

Entry Price

0.80400

0.79500

0.80435 -0.00020 -0.02%

59.5

Pips

Profit

0.79500

0.80296

Exit Price

0.79701

Entry Price

0.80400

The US Dollar extended its gains against a subdued Swiss Franc on Wednesday, buoyed by renewed buying momentum as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal policy announcement later in the day. The pair climbed to session highs around 0.7979 during European trading hours after rebounding from early lows of 0.7925, effectively erasing losses from the prior two sessions.

Despite the intraday recovery, USD/CHF remains largely confined within its two-week consolidation range, with upside attempts consistently capped below 0.7985. The restrained price action underscores the market’s hesitancy to commit to a clear directional bias before the Fed unveils its latest policy stance — a decision that could reshape expectations for US interest rates and global risk sentiment heading into year-end.

Futures markets have almost entirely priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut, a move that would bring the federal funds rate down to a three-year low between 3.75% and 4.00%. Such a decision would mark a continuation of the Fed’s easing trajectory, aimed at cushioning the US economy against slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.

However, traders are looking beyond the headline cut. The critical question lies in whether Chair Jerome Powell will validate market bets for further easing in December — or temper them with a hawkish tone suggesting the Fed may pause to assess the cumulative effects of prior cuts.

“The real market driver tonight will not be the cut itself — it’s Powell’s tone,” said one FX strategist at a London-based investment bank. “If he signals caution about additional easing, we could see the dollar rally sharply across the board, especially against low-yielders like the Swiss Franc.”

Adding intrigue to the meeting, speculation is mounting that the Fed could also signal an end to its balance sheet reduction program — the so-called quantitative tightening (QT). Such a move would represent a subtle but significant pivot toward a more supportive stance for the banking sector, particularly as signs emerge that credit conditions are deteriorating.

Recent data and commentary from US financial institutions point to tightening lending standards, with smaller banks feeling the squeeze from higher funding costs. A pause in QT would ease some of that pressure, improving liquidity in the system and potentially calming credit markets that have shown signs of strain.

Beyond monetary policy, political developments are adding another layer of complexity to global market sentiment. The US President’s ongoing tour of Asia has injected cautious optimism into the risk environment ahead of a closely watched meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for Thursday.

So far, remarks from Washington have leaned constructive, with the President emphasizing the importance of open dialogue and mutual economic cooperation. However, a more measured tone from Beijing’s Foreign Ministry — urging the US to take “concrete steps” to maintain stable supply chains — briefly tempered enthusiasm, reminding investors that progress remains fragile.

Still, the broader tone in global equities and risk assets has been moderately supportive, providing a tailwind for the dollar as traders unwind defensive Swiss Franc positions.

On the domestic front, Switzerland’s ZEW Economic Expectations survey offered a glimmer of optimism. The index improved sharply to -7.7 in October, up from a deeply pessimistic -46.4 in September. While the rebound suggests sentiment may be stabilizing, the reading remains in negative territory, signaling that confidence in the Swiss economy’s outlook is still fragile.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a cautious tone in recent weeks, signaling that it stands ready to intervene in currency markets if excessive Franc strength threatens to derail its inflation objectives. With the Fed’s decision looming, the SNB’s stance may once again come under scrutiny should volatility pick up in the USD/CHF cross.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair has shown resilience, repeatedly defending the key support area near 0.7935–0.7945. This region, previously a resistance-turned-support (RBS) zone, has attracted consistent buying interest, reflecting underlying bullish sentiment despite recent consolidation.

A minor consolidation channel has emerged just beneath the 0.7980 mark, which currently acts as an immediate resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this area — ideally accompanied by a retest and strong volume — could pave the way for a continuation move toward the next resistance zone near 0.8020–0.8040.

Conversely, failure to sustain momentum above 0.7980 could expose the pair to renewed selling pressure, with initial downside support at 0.7940 and 0.7915. A break below these levels could shift sentiment back in favor of the Franc, especially if the Fed surprises with a hawkish tilt.