Bullish Momentum May Build from Key Moving Averages

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The proximity of these moving averages, combined with a slight rebound from this support zone, suggests the potential for a bullish reversal in the short term.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35500

Entry Price

1.35950

1.35100

1.33306 -0.00006 0.00%

45.0

Pips

Profit

1.35100

1.35951

Exit Price

1.35500

Entry Price

1.35950

Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with Iran reportedly informing mediators from Qatar and Oman that it “will not negotiate under attack,” according to a source familiar with the ongoing dialogue. This comes amid intensified military exchanges between Iran and Israel. The same source denied recent reports suggesting that Tehran had reached out to Qatar and Oman with a proposal to involve the U.S. in brokering a ceasefire or resuming nuclear talks, stating such claims are “inaccurate.”

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump affirmed Washington’s unwavering support for Israel, stating on Sunday that although he hopes for a resolution between Iran and Israel, “they’ll have to fight it out.” Trump also reportedly rejected a proposed Israeli plan to target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emphasizing his preference to keep the U.S. from being drawn directly into the conflict—for now.

On the economic front, Thursday’s release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May added to signs of cooling inflation. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, matching analysts’ expectations and slightly surpassing April’s 2.5%. More notably, core PPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—eased to 3.0% from the previous month’s 3.2%, reinforcing the narrative that inflationary pressures are beginning to moderate.

Following a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading earlier in the week, the PPI data has fueled market expectations that the Federal Reserve may be positioning for a potential rate cut as soon as September. A softer inflation outlook typically benefits gold, as the precious metal becomes more attractive in a low-rate environment due to its non-yielding nature.

Across the Atlantic, the latest figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed a sharper-than-expected contraction in economic activity. The British economy shrank by 0.3% in April, missing the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline. This downturn follows a 0.2% GDP expansion in March. According to the ONS, the contraction was largely driven by a significant drop in exports to the United States, linked to the recent implementation of U.S. trade tariffs. "Following four consecutive monthly increases, April saw the largest recorded monthly fall in goods exports to the U.S., with broad-based declines across most categories of goods," the agency reported.

This unexpected weakness may pressure the Bank of England (BoE) to reconsider its cautious approach to monetary policy. In May, the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, signaling a "gradual and measured" stance on further easing. However, the recent data could prompt a more flexible shift if economic weakness persists. Bullish Momentum May Build from Key Moving Averages_1

Bullish Momentum May Build from Key Moving Averages_1

Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently finding support near the 1.3536 level, where both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the one-hour chart are closely aligned—at 1.3543 and 1.3546, respectively. The proximity of these moving averages, combined with a slight rebound from this support zone, suggests the potential for a bullish reversal in the short term. A sustained move higher could open the door to retest the next resistance zone near 1.3595.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.61, a level that remains within neutral territory. However, if the pair continues to hold above the current support, the RSI may begin to trend higher, possibly confirming a new upward leg. Conversely, if GBP/USD breaks decisively below 1.3536, bearish momentum could gain traction, particularly if renewed demand for safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar strengthens amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3550

Target price: 1.3595

Stop loss: 1.3510

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

As Europe embraces a stronger euro and fiscal support, the era of monetary easing is drawing to a close. Meanwhile, New Zealand's BNZ Manufacturing Index has plunged to 47.5, re-entering contraction territory.

BUY EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.91149

Entry Price

1.96200

1.89000

2.01607 +0.00056 +0.03%

337.3

Pips

Profit

1.89000

1.94522

Exit Price

1.91149

Entry Price

1.96200

Fundamentals

Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank's Executive Board, indicated on Thursday that the ECB's monetary easing cycle is "nearing its end," given the stable medium-term inflation outlook and improved macroeconomic conditions. She confidently projected an inflation rate of just 1.6% for 2026, attributing the temporary decline in inflation to base effects in energy prices and the euro's strength.

Schnabel painted a relatively optimistic picture of the eurozone's economic prospects, noting that despite heightened global trade tensions, eurozone economic growth remains "broadly stable." Private consumption continues to be a key pillar of support for the economy, while the manufacturing and construction sectors are also showing signs of recovery. She emphasized that "additional defense and infrastructure spending has offset the impact of tariffs on economic growth."

These structural shifts, combined with the euro's resilience and the strong performance of equity markets, reflect a "new European growth narrative," which could enhance the region's economic standing.

In contrast, New Zealand's BNZ Manufacturing Index has fallen to 47.5, re-entering contraction territory.

The latest data released on Friday showed that New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI for May plummeted to 47.5 from 53.3 in April, highlighting the pressures faced by the manufacturing sector, including declining orders, rising costs, and waning confidence.

The New Orders Index also dropped from 50.8 to 45.3, supporting the view that the economy's return to a growth trajectory is at risk of being disrupted.

The sharp decline in business confidence is also evident, with 64.5% of respondents providing negative assessments, up from 58% in April. This reflects the growing pessimism among manufacturers as they grapple with falling demand, weak forward orders, and subdued consumer spending. Rising input costs, ongoing economic uncertainty, and stalled investment plans have further exacerbated the pressure on businesses.

Previously, the market had anticipated steady progress for New Zealand's economy in 2025, but the latest PMI data suggests an increased risk that the GDP rebound seen in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 could stall (bearish for the NZD).

Mixed Indicators Signal High Volatility with Expanding Trading Range_1

Technical Analysis

The EURNZD pair formed a head-and-shoulders top pattern between April 2 and 15 but failed to fully materialize the pattern's downside target below 1.8798. Instead, it recently broke above the consolidation range at 1.9163, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.

The moving averages (MA 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200) have all turned positive, generating a consistent "buy signal."

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 57.8, within the neutral-to-bullish range but not yet overbought, indicating ample upside potential.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slightly turned positive, supporting the continuation of upward momentum.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 5, signaling a strong trend with a clear upward bias and potential for continuation.

The Average True Range (ATR) reflects high volatility and an expanding trading range.

The technical outlook for the asset is currently bullish. Traders are advised to wait for a suitable pullback to enter long positions, employing a trend-following strategy with stop-loss levels set based on support levels. If the pair breaks above the resistance level at 1.9238, it could open the door for the next round of bullish targets.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.9115/1.9080

Target Price: 1.9620

Stop Loss: 1.8900

Deadline: June 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.9115/1.9080/1.8983

Resistance: 1.9237/1.9266/1.9296

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) is extending gains above $3,430 amid intensifying Israel-Iran conflict and rising geopolitical risks, while investors eye key US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3420.00

Entry Price

3500.00

3380.00

4209.95 +12.04 +0.29%

400.0

Pips

Loss

3380.00

Exit Price

3420.00

Entry Price

3500.00

Gold prices have continued their steep climb into Friday’s session, buoyed by an escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East as Israel ramps up military strikes on Iran. The ongoing conflict has stirred broad-based risk aversion, sending investors flocking to traditional safe havens such as gold, which now trades above $3,430 per ounce—a fresh multi-month high.

The precious metal’s latest rally is underscored by mounting global anxiety after Israel launched what it described as a “coordinated and targeted” series of airstrikes deep into Iranian territory. According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, Israeli forces targeted over 100 strategic locations using roughly 200 air force planes. Among the casualties are senior Iranian military figures, including Hossein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s military chief of staff.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the strikes, stating that they were aimed at crippling the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. The military offensive followed a damning resolution by the UN nuclear watchdog, accusing Tehran of breaching the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In defiance, Iran declared its intention to accelerate its nuclear activities, claiming the action was in response to a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty.

The United States has expressed support for Israel’s military campaign, further compounding the geopolitical risks. In a striking interview with ABC News, former US President Donald Trump remarked, “They got hit hard. Very hard. And there’s more to come. A lot more.” On social media, Trump doubled down, saying he had given Iran multiple chances to negotiate but that “they just couldn’t get it done.”

As fears of a broader regional conflict mount, risk-off sentiment is dominating financial markets, propelling gold higher. The exodus to safety is also being fueled by concerns that the US may be drawn deeper into the conflict, following reports that American personnel are being repositioned across the Middle East. Plans for a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks, originally scheduled for this weekend, have been scrapped amid the chaos.

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by international condemnation of the attacks. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged all parties to “avoid further escalation” and reiterated Beijing’s willingness to mediate in the interest of regional peace. Saudi Arabia also denounced the strikes, calling for restraint and dialogue.

Against this tense backdrop, markets are preparing for key US economic data that could shape near-term monetary policy expectations. Of particular importance is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, due for release later today. The report, which includes both headline sentiment and closely watched inflation expectations, is regarded as a leading barometer of consumer confidence and price outlook.

The Federal Reserve will be paying especially close attention to the one-year and five-year inflation expectations components, as policymakers weigh their next moves. The sentiment data comes on the heels of this week’s inflation prints, which have offered mixed signals about the pace of price pressures.

On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a modest cooling in wholesale inflation. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in May, matching analyst expectations and slightly up from April’s 2.5%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, eased to 3.0% from 3.2%. These figures followed Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which also signaled a softening of inflationary pressures at the consumer level.

Still, with Middle East tensions threatening to disrupt oil flows and global supply chains, there’s a renewed risk that geopolitical instability could reverse recent disinflationary trends and reignite cost pressures.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold remains in a robust short-term uptrend. The metal’s price action is currently testing resistance near $3,435, with attempts to consolidate above this level suggesting ongoing bullish momentum. While overbought conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are emerging, price action remains underpinned by a bullish corrective trend on the four-hour chart.

Intraday analysis reveals that gold continues to trade above the $3,400 threshold, with immediate support located in the $3,400–$3,410 range. Deeper support sits around $3,375–$3,385, coinciding with a former top/bottom flip zone. A break below this region may prompt a short-term pullback, though the broader bias remains bullish.

The key psychological level to watch is $3,500, which serves as the next upside target should momentum continue. A daily close above this resistance would reinforce the bullish case and open the door for further gains. Traders are advised to exercise caution with short positions, given the strength of the upward trend and persistent geopolitical tailwinds.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3420

STOP LOSS: 3380

TAKE PROFIT: 3500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Gold surged to a high of $2,444.34 as Israeli airstrikes on Iran ignited geopolitical risks, while weaker-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and PPI data fueled market bets for early Fed rate cuts in the second half. This dual catalyst propelled gold past multiple technical resistance levels to hit a two-month peak. Strong short-term buying momentum suggests the bullish trend remains intact.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3421.91

Entry Price

3530.00

3375.00

4209.95 +12.04 +0.29%

469.1

Pips

Loss

3375.00

Exit Price

3421.91

Entry Price

3530.00

Fundamentals

Spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed to near two-month highs on Friday (June 13th), driven by both geopolitical tensions and shifting macroeconomic expectations. Overnight (UK time), Israel launched airstrikes against multiple Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, dramatically escalating Middle East tensions and triggering market risk-aversion. Investors dumped risk assets in favor of gold, pushing prices to an intraday high of $3,444.34/oz during the Asian session, a peak gain of approximately 1.7%.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic data further bolstered gold. Initial jobless claims remained at an eight-month high, while May PPI growth fell short of expectations, signaling a potential easing of inflation and a cooling labor market. This reignited expectations for earlier Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2025, weakening both the U.S. dollar and real yields to provide a dual tailwind for gold. The USDX faced additional pressure from U.S.-China trade talks and U.S. debt ceiling gridlock, failing to stage a meaningful rebound and offering gold further upside support.

Technical Analysis

Geopolitical Flares Up! Safe-Haven Bulls Charge Back_1

Gold ascends straight up from May's low of 3250.00, testing the high between 3400.00 and 3430.00. After crosses above the short-term resistance of 3403.46, gold once touched 3444.34, breaking through the high of May 7th (3437.93). With the upper space opening, gold bears are retreating under a heatwave of buying.

Regarding indicators, MACD shows a golden cross with the signal line accelerating above zero and expanding red momentum bars. RSI is moving between 60 and 70 without entering the overbought zone, suggesting a strong uptrend at the moment.

Buying at lows is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3416.00

Target price: 3530.00

Stop loss: 3375.00

Valid Until: June 27, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3403.46/3382.85

Resistance: 3444.34/3500.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Recent geopolitical developments may continue to lend strength to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency, reinforcing the bearish bias.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35700

Entry Price

1.34600

1.36500

1.33306 -0.00006 0.00%

20.4

Pips

Profit

1.34600

1.35496

Exit Price

1.35700

Entry Price

1.36500

The United Kingdom's economic outlook dimmed in April as monthly GDP contracted by 0.3%, a sharper decline than the 0.1% drop forecast by economists. This followed a 0.2% expansion in March. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the contraction was primarily driven by a steep fall in exports to the United States, triggered by the recent implementation of trade tariffs. "After posting gains in each of the previous four months, April marked the largest monthly decline on record in goods exports to the U.S., with most categories seeing notable decreases following the introduction of tariffs," stated the ONS.

This deeper-than-anticipated economic slowdown is likely to prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to reassess its “gradual and measured” approach to monetary easing. The central bank adopted this stance in May after it cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.25%.

In the United States, Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release added further confirmation that inflationary pressures may be easing at the wholesale level. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year in May, matching expectations and slightly above April’s 2.5%. However, the core PPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, declined to 3.0% from 3.2%, signaling a continued softening in underlying price growth.

This followed Wednesday’s downside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has strengthened market sentiment that the Federal Reserve may have room to deliver its first rate cut as early as September. A disinflationary environment tends to favor gold prices, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Gold’s bullish narrative is also supported by rising geopolitical tensions. Reports that Israel may be contemplating a military strike on Iran have raised fears of heightened conflict in the Middle East. Simultaneously, renewed tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump have added to safe-haven flows, reinforcing the metal’s appeal in periods of political and economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, last Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May revealed a stronger-than-expected increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing the 130,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings grew at a firm annual pace of 3.9%, suggesting that while the labor market is cooling, it remains fundamentally resilient. Geopolitical Risks and Economic Data Align to Fuel Downside Pressure on GBPUSD_1

Geopolitical Risks and Economic Data Align to Fuel Downside Pressure on GBPUSD_1

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD recently topped out near 1.3630 in the previous session before beginning a downward move that appears to be corrective in nature. If the pair closes below the 100- and 200-period moving averages—currently hovering around 1.3542 and 1.3543 on the one-hour chart—downside momentum could gather pace. Recent geopolitical developments may continue to lend strength to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency, reinforcing the bearish bias.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached the 70 level during the latest bullish leg, placing it firmly in overbought territory. This level is being closely monitored for signs of bearish divergence or rejection, which could signal a deeper pullback. Should the RSI fail to break higher, a rejection here may accelerate price action toward the next key support at 1.3460. The 1.3616 resistance level appears to be exerting considerable selling pressure. If this barrier remains intact, the downward correction could extend. However, a decisive breakout above this level would likely trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially driving the pair toward the 1.3650 region.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3570

Target price: 1.3460

Stop loss: 1.3650

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

The inability to form a new local high signals a possible loss of bullish momentum in the short term.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3389.23

Entry Price

3345.00

3415.00

4209.95 +12.04 +0.29%

257.7

Pips

Loss

3345.00

3415.09

Exit Price

3389.23

Entry Price

3415.00

Thursday’s release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) added to mounting evidence that inflationary pressures may be easing at the wholesale level. Headline PPI rose by 2.6% year-over-year in May, in line with analysts’ forecasts and slightly above the 2.5% recorded in April. Meanwhile, the core PPI—which excludes food and energy—declined to 3.0% from April’s 3.2%, suggesting that underlying pricing pressures are gradually moderating.

Following Wednesday’s downside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this additional confirmation of a cooling inflation trend has bolstered market speculation that the Federal Reserve may be on track to deliver a rate cut as early as September. The softer inflation backdrop is generally seen as supportive for gold, which tends to benefit from lower interest rate expectations due to its non-yielding nature.

Adding to gold’s bullish fundamentals are growing geopolitical risks. Reports suggesting that Israel may be weighing a potential military strike against Iran have stirred fears of an escalating conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, renewed tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump are feeding safe-haven demand, further underpinning the precious metal’s appeal in uncertain times.

On the macroeconomic front, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for May showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 139,000 jobs, exceeding market consensus of 130,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings remained at a firm 3.9% year-over-year—both figures reinforcing the view that the labor market, though cooling, continues to show underlying strength.

In addition, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surprised to the upside, posting its first monthly increase since December. The improvement hints at a potential shift in business sentiment after months of weakness and could signal a budding sense of economic stability among smaller enterprises.

Elsewhere, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) indicated a broad decline in inflation expectations across one-, three-, and five-year horizons. While this decline is generally encouraging from a monetary policy perspective, it was accompanied by a noticeable deterioration in household sentiment. Respondents expressed weaker views of their present and future financial situations, highlighting the fragile nature of consumer confidence amid conflicting economic signals. Bearish Pressure Could Resume if Gold Fails to Break 3400_1

Bearish Pressure Could Resume if Gold Fails to Break 3400_1

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) has once again encountered strong resistance near the 3400 level, marking the third time price has failed to break higher at this zone. This repeated rejection could trigger a wave of profit-taking among bullish traders, increasing the likelihood of a corrective move lower. The inability to form a new local high signals a possible loss of bullish momentum in the short term.

However, it’s worth noting that the broader trend remains upward, and gold continues to respect a rising trendline. So far, price action has not breached this structure with a lower low, suggesting the area around the trendline may serve as a key support level.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages, currently located at 3336 and 3348 respectively, converge near a previously tested support zone. This region could act as a gravitational pull for price, given its history as a pivot point for both rebounds and rejections. If bearish pressure intensifies, this area could become a primary target for sellers.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 61, indicating that there is still room before entering overbought territory. However, a developing bearish divergence on the RSI may hint at weakening momentum and open the door for a downside retracement.

Should gold manage to break decisively above the 3400 level with strong volume, the bullish trend could continue toward new highs. On the other hand, if resistance holds and selling pressure increases, a pullback toward 3345 becomes increasingly likely in the near term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3386

Target price: 3345

Stop loss: 3415

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The US Dollar plunges amid risk-off sentiment, disappointing US inflation data, and renewed skepticism over Trump’s trade agenda, pushing USD/CHF toward multi-year lows.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81400

Entry Price

0.80000

0.82500

0.80328 -0.00127 -0.16%

41.1

Pips

Profit

0.80000

0.80989

Exit Price

0.81400

Entry Price

0.82500

The US Dollar is under intense pressure across the board, as a combination of lackluster US economic data and growing disillusionment with President Donald Trump’s trade policy stokes risk aversion, prompting investors to seek refuge in safer assets like the Swiss Franc.

As of Thursday’s European trading session, the greenback has taken a heavy beating against most major currencies, with USD/CHF down sharply by 0.8%, dropping from Tuesday’s high near 0.8250 to intraday lows around 0.8120 — just a stone’s throw from multi-year support at 0.8040. The renewed selloff underscores deepening market doubts over the sustainability of the so-called "America First" economic narrative, especially as trade risks begin to collide with a weakening macroeconomic backdrop.

A shaky truce in the US-China trade war, which was supposed to lend stability, has instead done little to calm investor nerves. The agreement — which still awaits official ratification by China’s President Xi Jinping — mostly reiterates prior commitments reached in Geneva last month. Tariffs remain in place at punitive levels, and no concrete roadmap has been laid out to ease broader trade restrictions.

Markets were hoping for a breakthrough, something substantial enough to spur confidence. Instead, what they got was a recycled version of the previous deal, further diluted by uncertainty. In a move that only added fuel to the fire, President Trump announced he would be issuing formal letters to all major trading partners, outlining stricter tariff demands that could take effect as early as June 9. This aggressive posture has reignited fears of a renewed trade war escalation, sending a chill through global equity markets and strengthening the bid for traditional safe havens.

Compounding the pressure on the greenback are signs of faltering domestic inflation. Wednesday’s release of softer-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) data suggested that pricing pressures remain subdued, leading many investors to believe that the Federal Reserve may need to resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner rather than later.

The data have increased expectations of a rate cut as early as September, and traders are now eyeing Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for further confirmation. If producer prices also show weakness, the narrative for additional monetary policy easing from the Fed will likely gain even more traction, accelerating the dollar’s slide.

In contrast to the embattled dollar, the Swiss Franc has been one of the primary beneficiaries of this renewed wave of global uncertainty. Traditionally considered a safe haven, the CHF tends to outperform in times of market stress, and current conditions have provided the perfect setup for such a move. With investor sentiment rapidly deteriorating, capital has rotated out of risk-sensitive assets and into currencies like the CHF and JPY, pushing USD/CHF toward its lowest levels since the early 2020s.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF remains under considerable bearish pressure. The pair broke decisively below the 0.8185 support level, opening the path toward the next significant floor near the 0.8000 area — a level not seen in several years. The sustained move below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50) adds to the negative bias, with the moving average acting as a dynamic resistance barrier.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows persistent bearish momentum, even though it is now hovering in oversold territory. The fact that the RSI has not triggered any bullish divergence suggests that the downside still has room to extend, particularly if upcoming data and trade headlines continue to favor a risk-off posture.

The short-term trend is clearly tilted to the downside, and unless a significant shift in macro sentiment or monetary policy expectations occurs, the pair could continue to trend lower in the sessions ahead.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8140

STOP LOSS: 0.8250

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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