BTC/USD attempts a breakout after prolonged range compression

Commodity

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $88,300–$88,700, rebounding from recent consolidation within a $85,000–$90,000 range as holiday liquidity remains thin...

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

88300.0

Entry Price

90500.0

87450.0

88220.0 +186.0 +0.21%

Pips

EXPIRED

87450.0

87994.7

Exit Price

88300.0

Entry Price

90500.0

Overview

BTC’s price action toward the end of 2025 reflects a crypto market struggling to build directional conviction. Bitcoin’s price is holding around $88,000–$88,650 in live feeds, suggesting a mild recovery from recent dips near $87,000 support amid thin year-end volumes. The broader macro picture is mixed: risk assets, including equities, finished slightly lower on Fed minutes indicating neutral rate bias, which tends to support safe-haven and USD strength rather than aggressive risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets means breakouts or breakdowns in traditional markets sway crypto flows quickly.

Institutional behavior is a key fundamental driver right now: significant Bitcoin ETF inflows have re-emerged, pointing to renewed demand from larger investors and adding a structural bullish narrative amid short-term consolidation.

Market sentiment

Sentiment in BTC remains cautiously bullish on dips rather than aggressively directional. The market has spent the past week trading sideways, fluctuating between $85k and $90k, which indicates participants are balancing between short-term profit taking and strategic accumulation near perceived value zones. In this context, defenders of support near $87k–$87.5k have prevented deeper breakdowns, suggesting institutions and skilled traders may be accumulating, especially as holiday flows remain light and easy to trigger false breaks. The narrow range compression itself can lead to strong moves once a breakout occurs.

Technical analysis

BTC/USD attempts a breakout after prolonged range compression_1

On the M15 chart, BTC is hovering above recent intraday swing lows, with price action near the Bollinger Band lower area but showing tentative rejection off that lower range. This positioning indicates sellers may be exhausted for now. If BTC can push and close above the BB mid-band (20 SMA) with a clean close above dynamic resistance, it would mark the first short-term bullish structure shift after days of range trading.

Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15: price currently sits near the Kijun-sen and is attempting to reclaim this level. A sustained break above it with subsequent candles closing above the cloud boundary would imply a shift from short-term indecision to renewed buyer control.

Stochastic (5,3,3) is climbing from the lower regions and is on the verge of a bullish crossover, which often precedes upward momentum in compressed environments like the current range. This oscillator behavior coupled with proximity to dynamic support suggests that dip-buyers are active and impatient sellers have largely exited.

Key levels shaping the technical setup: support near $87,000–$87,300 (recent lows and psychological anchor) and resistance near $89,000–$89,500 (upper range boundary and short-term supply). A break above $89,000 on strong momentum validated by these indicators turning bullish would significantly increase the odds of continuation.

Trade recommendation

Entry: $88,300–$88,550 (buy on breakout above BB mid-band and Ichimoku resistance on M15 with clean consecutive closes)

Take Profit: $89,850 (first target at prior short-term range highs) then $90,500 if momentum sustains and buyers push the breakout further

Stop Loss: $87,450 (below recent support cluster and the lower Ichimoku boundary, invalidating the breakout on decisive downside)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD (Gold) is retreating from multi-year highs around $4,373–4,374/oz, slipping toward the lower end of its intraday range amid profit-taking, elevated CME margins, and thin liquidity typical of year-end...

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

4340.00

Entry Price

4280.00

4370.00

4319.61 -19.50 -0.45%

Pips

PENDING

4280.00

Exit Price

4340.00

Entry Price

4370.00

Overview

XAU/USD’s behavior today reflects a market transitioning from exuberant year-long trend to short-term consolidation and profit distribution. After an unprecedented 2025 with prices up roughly 66% year-over-year, bullion has seen heightened volatility characterized by swings driven by both safe-haven demand and positioning unwind ahead of the new year.

Spot gold is trading around $4,330–4,337/oz within a day’s range of $4,275–4,373/oz, indicating a broadening of price action as participants rebalance.Fundamental drivers remain mixed: strong macro demand and central bank buying powered the rally this year, but profit booking, rising futures margins, and strong USD dynamics periodically subdue upside momentum.

Larger macro indicators like the US Dollar index (DXY) strengthening can amplify gold weakness because gold is priced in USD. Short-term players are especially sensitive to CME margin increases, which have forced some leveraged traders to liquidate long positions, contributing to the current pullback pressure.

Market sentiment

At the moment, sentiment leans toward cautious bearish on the M15 timeframe, not because the long-term trend has reversed, but because traders are digesting the enormous gains of the past year and locking in profits. Year-end conditions (lower volume, holiday positioning) exacerbate this. The recent pullback extends beyond normal intra-day random noise; it reflects strategic exits from crowded long positions, especially after the spike toward the upper Bollinger boundary on higher timeframes. The bearish structure is supported by a failed reclaim of highs above $4,370/oz and reduced momentum as reflected in consolidated trading volumes.

In market psychology terms, prolonged rallies often culminate in distribution phases where bulls become exhausted and early buyers begin to sell into strength this appears to be occurring now as short-term indicators roll over from overbought behavior into neutral or slightly bearish territory. This shift is critical for validating tactical short setups on intraday intervals such as M15.

Technical analysis

XAU/USD pulls back on year-end profit taking_1

On M15, XAU/USD is trading below the Bollinger mid-band (20 SMA) following rejections near the upper range. This suggests that short-term sellers are dominant as price gravitates toward the lower band. A break and close below the lower BB would signal acceleration of the downside move in the context of the intraday consolidation.

Ichimoku (9,26,52) shows price approaching the Kijun-sen from above; failure to reclaim back above this level on sustained closes would indicate that the balance zone is shifting lower and support is weakening. The cloud (Senkou Span) on M15 may act as dynamic resistance above if price pulls back, adding weight to the bearish bias.Stoch (5,3,3) is rolling over from mid-range and heading down, which aligns with declining short-term momentum. A bearish crossover here especially if synchronized with price remaining under the BB mid-band and failing to break back above the Ichimoku balance confirms sellers have the edge on the M15 setup.

Resistance is clustered near $4,341–$4,350/oz (recent consolidation high and BB mid-band), while immediate support lies near $4,275–$4,280/oz (session low and proximity to lower Bollinger band). These dynamic levels structure the sell setup’s risk and reward.

Trade recommendation

Entry: $4,340–$4,350/oz (sell on pullback that fails to break above the BB mid-band and Ichimoku cloud resistance)

Take Profit: $4,280/oz (first major session support) then $4,250/oz if downside momentum accelerates

Stop Loss: $4,370/oz (above recent rejection zone and BB mid-band/Ichimoku resistance)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The US Dollar is closing 2025 under sustained pressure, weighed down by policy uncertainty, political interference fears at the Federal Reserve, and a maturing global easing cycle—leaving the greenback vulnerable heading into 2026 as technical signals continue to point lower.

SELL USDX

EXP

PENDING

98.200

Entry Price

97.540

98.620

97.950 +0.070 +0.07%

Pips

PENDING

97.540

Exit Price

98.200

Entry Price

98.620

The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged modestly higher during a subdued year-end trading session on Wednesday, but the tentative uptick did little to alter the broader bearish narrative that has defined the greenback’s performance throughout 2025. After briefly touching an intraday high of 98.44, the index surrendered most of its gains and was last seen hovering near 98.25 as the US session got underway, reflecting thin liquidity and cautious positioning into the final trading days of the year.

Measured against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar remains firmly below its November peak of 100.40, marking a decline of roughly 2% from that high. More strikingly, the index is on course for an almost 10% annual loss, its worst yearly performance in eight years. That underperformance places the US Dollar among the weakest currencies in the G8 complex in 2025, a notable reversal from the resilience it displayed during previous tightening cycles.

Investor sentiment toward the greenback has steadily deteriorated over the course of the year, driven by a convergence of political, economic, and monetary policy concerns. Markets have increasingly priced in the negative implications of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade stance, which has reintroduced uncertainty around tariffs, global supply chains, and the outlook for US growth. At the same time, mounting evidence of a slowing domestic economy has encouraged traders to add to short dollar positions, particularly against currencies backed by more stable policy frameworks.

Adding to the pressure has been the growing perception of political interference in US monetary policy. Repeated and highly publicized calls for lower interest rates have raised uncomfortable questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence. For global investors, this erosion of institutional credibility has been more than a domestic issue—it has fed into broader doubts about the long-term appeal of the US Dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency. While such a status is unlikely to be challenged abruptly, even incremental shifts in confidence can have material consequences in FX markets.

From a policy standpoint, the Federal Reserve finds itself in an increasingly awkward position. The central bank is still navigating the middle phase of its easing cycle at a time when many of its global peers appear to have reached, or are very close to, terminal rates. This divergence has deprived the dollar of a key source of support, as narrowing yield differentials reduce the incentive for international capital to flow into US assets. In my view, this dynamic represents one of the most persistent headwinds for the greenback and suggests that any meaningful recovery will be difficult to sustain into 2026 unless US growth materially re-accelerates.

Liquidity conditions remain thin in the final sessions of the year, limiting the scope for large directional moves. Nevertheless, the upcoming US weekly Jobless Claims data could provide a final catalyst for FX markets. Initial claims are expected to rise to around 220,000 for the week ending December 16, up from 214,000 previously. While not alarming in isolation, a softer labor signal would reinforce the narrative of economic cooling and could further tilt risks to the downside for the dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the DXY remains entrenched in a bearish structure. The index has respected a descending resistance line, failing to reclaim key premium levels after buy-side liquidity was already cleared. This price behavior favors continuation lower, with attention turning toward areas of resting sell-side liquidity beneath current levels. The index is currently reacting near the pivot at 98.16, which now acts as pullback resistance and raises the risk of a reversal toward the first support zone at 97.54. Initial resistance is seen at 98.62, a level that would need to be decisively cleared to challenge the prevailing downtrend.

Looking ahead, even in the event of a corrective bounce, the broader technical landscape remains hostile for dollar bulls. A reverse trendline—now acting as resistance—stands as a formidable barrier, and a sustained move beyond it would be required to reopen the path toward the December highs and beyond. Until then, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities rather than the start of a durable recovery.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL DXY

ENTRY PRICE: 98.20

STOP LOSS: 98.62

TAKE PROFIT: 97.54

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Officials of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated that monetary policy will remain on an upward trajectory. The Japanese yen’s structural weakness is expected to persist into 2026.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

156.641

Entry Price

161.070

154.000

156.658 +0.239 +0.15%

0.0

Pips

Flat

154.000

Exit Price

156.641

Entry Price

161.070

Fundamentals

The Japanese yen’s struggle to stage a substantive rebound has become a key feature of year-end trading. Even the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike in December failed to provide sustained support, highlighting the entrenched strength of bearish positions.

Carry trade dynamics remain crucial. Despite lingering valuation concerns, the Nikkei Index has maintained a strong upward momentum year to date, driven by optimism surrounding Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new administration and sustained enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and tech stocks.

The scale of this rally is remarkable. Surging from around the 30,000-point mark in April, the Nikkei Index broke through 50,000 points in early November to hit an all-time high, registering one of the strongest gains in decades. Although the market has seen some volatility since November, the index has so far stabilized within a wide range around the 50,000-point level. Such consolidation indicates underlying robust upward momentum, leaving room for another rally early next year.

Meanwhile, fiscal concerns are quietly mounting. Japan’s expansionary budgetary policies have pushed up long-term bond yields. The 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield remains near its historical high of 3.4%, while the 10-year JGB yield also hovers above 2%, a multi-decade peak. Even so, yields are still artificially suppressed. Crucially, the Bank of Japan remains a large-scale buyer of government bonds, which effectively caps the rise in long-term bond yields.

As a result, risks that would typically push yields higher, such as fiscal sustainability issues, are instead priced into the Japanese yen. This dynamic exposes the yen to further downside risks in the coming months. Even if the government takes direct intervention measures that go beyond verbal warnings, it will be difficult to deliver lasting relief.

Fiscal Expansion Coupled with Yield Distortion, JPY’s Structural Weakness May Persist Into 2026_1

Technical Analysis

In USDJPY trading, the exchange rate has continued to consolidate below 157.88. The intraday trend remains neutral. With the 154.33 support level still holding, the outlook remains bullish. On the upside, a decisive break above the key structural resistance level of 158.85 will serve as a major medium-term bullish signal, with the next target at the 161.94 high. However, a break below 154.38 will shift the trend to bearish, potentially triggering a deeper correction.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.41

Target Price: 161.07

Stop Loss: 154.00

Valid Until: 16, January, 2026, 23:55:00

Support: 156.04/155.54/154.33

Resistance Levels: 156.73/157.05/157.76

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/USD has turned modestly higher after finding support near 1.1720, with fading US dollar momentum and policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed keeping the broader bias constructive despite thin year-end liquidity.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.17548

Entry Price

1.18200

1.17160

1.17453 -0.00021 -0.02%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.17160

Exit Price

1.17548

Entry Price

1.18200

The euro has regained a firmer footing against the US dollar, with EUR/USD turning positive on the daily chart on Wednesday as selling pressure in the greenback begins to ease. The pair found solid demand around the 1.1720 area during the European morning session before pushing back above 1.1750, where it was trading as markets headed into the US opening. While the rebound remains tentative, the price action suggests that downside momentum is losing traction, even as year-end conditions keep trading volumes subdued.

The immediate catalyst for the mild recovery appears to be a loss of steam in the recent US dollar bounce. With liquidity thinning sharply ahead of the New Year holiday, even modest shifts in expectations can generate outsized moves. Attention later in the session turns to US Initial Jobless Claims, one of the few remaining top-tier data points before markets effectively shut down for the year. While the release is unlikely to dramatically alter the macro narrative on its own, it could inject some short-lived volatility into what has otherwise been a sleepy trading environment.

Looking beyond the day-to-day fluctuations, the broader trend continues to favor the common currency. The euro is on course to post an annual gain of roughly 14% against the dollar, a striking performance that underscores the scale of the shift in global monetary policy expectations over the past year. At the heart of this move lies a clear divergence between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. While the ECB has signaled a willingness to keep policy restrictive for longer in its fight against inflation, the Fed has moved closer to the end of its tightening cycle and has already begun easing policy.

Political and structural factors in the United States have added to the dollar’s woes. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to trade policy has injected a fresh layer of uncertainty into the outlook for US growth and global trade flows. At the same time, signs of a softening US economy have become harder to ignore, reinforcing the view that US interest rates are more likely to fall than rise in the months ahead. Together, these dynamics have steadily eroded the dollar’s yield advantage, a key pillar of its strength in previous years.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting, released on Tuesday, offered further insight into the shifting balance within the Fed. They revealed a wider-than-expected divergence among policymakers, with the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points passing by a narrower margin than markets had assumed. Importantly, the committee emphasized that any additional easing would depend on a sustained and convincing decline in inflation. This conditional stance has cast doubt over the timing and pace of future rate cuts, prompting a brief bout of dollar strength immediately after the minutes were published.

However, that reaction proved short-lived. Investors appear increasingly skeptical that the Fed will be able to maintain a restrictive stance for long if economic data continue to soften. As a result, rallies in the dollar are being viewed as opportunities to sell rather than the start of a more durable recovery, particularly against currencies such as the euro that are underpinned by a relatively more hawkish central bank outlook.

From a market structure perspective, conditions remain far from ideal for trend-following strategies. Most major financial centers will be closed on Thursday for New Year celebrations, while Japanese markets are shut for the remainder of the week. These closures are likely to keep liquidity thin and price action choppy, increasing the risk of false breakouts in either direction.

Technical analysis

On the technical front, EUR/USD is showing early signs of stabilization, though the recovery is still fragile. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index has rebounded from levels close to oversold territory, indicating that bearish pressure is easing. Nevertheless, the RSI remains below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that upside momentum has yet to fully reassert itself. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator tells a similar story: bearish momentum is fading, but the MACD line is still below zero, pointing to lingering downside risks.

Key resistance levels remain clearly defined. A reverse trendline, currently around 1.1770, is likely to act as the first major obstacle to any sustained bullish reversal. A decisive break above this area would open the door toward the December 16 and December 24 highs near 1.1805. Beyond that, the September 23 and 24 peaks around 1.1820 come into focus, a zone that could prove challenging without a stronger fundamental catalyst.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.17550

STOP LOSS: 1.17160

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1820

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The yen continues to crumble as the Bank of Japan’s slow policy shift contrasts sharply with a firming ECB outlook, keeping EUR/JPY near multi-decade highs with technicals pointing to further upside toward 185.50.

BUY EURJPY

EXP

TRADING

184.100

Entry Price

185.500

183.300

183.993 +0.202 +0.11%

0.0

Pips

Flat

183.300

Exit Price

184.100

Entry Price

185.500

The Japanese yen continues to struggle near the bottom of the major currency performance table, extending its underwhelming run during thin holiday trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the yen remains firmly on the defensive, with EUR/JPY gravitating toward the 184.00 level by the European midday session. The pair rebounded from the 183.50 area on Tuesday, but the recovery has done little to alter the broader narrative of sustained yen weakness.

Viewed from a longer-term perspective, the cross remains uncomfortably close to its cycle highs. EUR/JPY is trading only a short distance below the long-term peak near 185.00 reached earlier this month and is on track to close the year with gains of more than 14%. Such a move is striking not only for its scale but also for its persistence, underscoring how deeply entrenched the negative sentiment toward the yen has become.

The primary driver of that sentiment continues to be the Bank of Japan’s hesitant approach to monetary normalisation. After years of ultra-loose policy, investors had hoped for a clearer and more decisive exit strategy. Instead, the BoJ has delivered cautious signals that tightening will continue, while offering little guidance on timing or pace. The latest Summary of Opinions from the central bank reaffirmed its commitment to further rate increases, yet stopped short of outlining a concrete path forward. This lack of clarity has reinforced the perception that any tightening will be slow, cautious and easily derailed by political considerations.

Those political considerations are increasingly important. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal stance has revived concerns about Japan’s already stretched public finances, raising doubts about how aggressively monetary policy can tighten without destabilising growth. At the same time, lingering uncertainty over potential US trade tariffs under Donald Trump has added another layer of risk for Japan’s export-oriented economy. Together, these factors have created what many investors see as a perfect storm for the yen, helping to explain why it has emerged as the weakest major currency performer of 2025.

In this environment, upside attempts in the yen have consistently failed to gain traction. The government is widely expected to oppose anything more than a very gradual normalisation cycle, effectively limiting how far Japanese yields can rise relative to their global peers. As long as that remains the case, yield differentials are likely to continue favouring yen selling on rallies rather than encouraging a sustained recovery.

By contrast, the euro has found modest but meaningful support from shifting expectations around European Central Bank policy. In recent weeks, ECB communication has increasingly suggested that the easing cycle may be over. While officials remain cautious and data-dependent, markets are beginning to price the possibility that the next policy move could be a rate hike, potentially in the second half of next year. That change in tone has given the euro additional lift, particularly against low-yielding currencies such as the yen.

Technical Analysis

From an analytical standpoint, this divergence in central bank trajectories remains the dominant force shaping EUR/JPY. Even without a strong growth impulse from the euro zone, relative policy expectations have been enough to keep the cross elevated. Unless the BoJ surprises markets with a clearer and more assertive tightening signal, or global risk sentiment deteriorates sharply enough to trigger broad safe-haven demand, the balance of risks continues to tilt against the yen.

The technical picture reinforces that view. EUR/JPY continues to trade within a well-defined upward channel, confirming that the broader bullish structure remains intact. Recent price action shows the pair consolidating rather than reversing, forming a bullish triangle pattern that typically precedes trend continuation. The series of higher lows over recent sessions highlights the willingness of buyers to step in on dips, absorbing selling pressure without allowing a deeper correction to develop.

As price action compresses near the upper boundary of this consolidation, the probability of a directional break is increasing. A strong bullish candle closing above the upper trendline would confirm a breakout and likely attract momentum-driven flows, rather than trigger profit-taking. In that scenario, the next area of interest sits around 185.50, extending beyond this month’s highs and reinforcing the sense that the rally has not yet run its course.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 184.10

STOP LOSS: 183.30

TAKE PROFIT: 185.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

With the impact of geopolitical factors easing, supply-demand dynamics drive market movements again. Under an oversupplied environment, WTI may continue to weaken.

SELL WTI

EXP

TRADING

57.689

Entry Price

52.800

59.100

57.439 -0.414 -0.72%

0.0

Pips

Flat

52.800

Exit Price

57.689

Entry Price

59.100

Fundamentals

The core factor currently influencing oil prices lies in the dual pattern of ample supply and fragile demand. On one hand, global supply remains difficult to tighten quickly, given the resilience of U.S. production and news of overall output increases or maintained production levels from OPEC+. As a result, the market faces persistent downward pressure. Multiple institutions and media outlets note that although prices were temporarily jolted by geopolitical events during the year, oversupply has been the dominant factor overall.

On the other hand, international agencies are not entirely pessimistic about demand: IEA's monthly report revised 2026 demand slightly higher. However, this improvement is insufficient to absorb the current excess capacity immediately. In the short term, it is unlikely to change the fundamental backdrop of "slow inventory digestion."

In addition, positioning on exchanges and microstructure in the futures market have amplified intraday volatility: recent reports show futures positions and trading volumes declining seasonally toward year-end. If technical selling pressure or margin adjustments occur, price pullbacks could be magnified.

Technical Analysis

Market Returns to Oversupply Pattern, Decline May Continue_1

Based on the daily chart, WTI's trend stays within a descending channel. Recently, price action has repeatedly touched the upper rail of the descending channel but failed to break through effectively, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing likelihood of a near-term downtrend.

Currently, key resistance above WTI is around 58.76. If the price can break through and hold above this level in the short term, upside potential will open up, with a possible test of the 60.00 level. The primary support below is near 56.60, and WTI may continue lower to test the 55.00 support and potentially move toward the 50.00 level if this level is breached.