AUD/JPY rebounds sharply from support

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, AUD/JPY staged a strong rebound off a key support zone near ¥95.55, buoyed by diminishing yen strength and risk-on sentiment...

BUY AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

96.900

Entry Price

98.000

96.000

103.217 +0.049 +0.05%

90.0

Pips

Loss

96.000

Exit Price

96.900

Entry Price

98.000

Overview

AUD/JPY reversed from the crucial support band around ¥95.55, which coincides with the upper 20‑day moving average and ~38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June’s rally. This level also aligns with the rising trendline from May, offering a confluence of technical support. A dovish tone from the Bank of Japan amid rising inflation forecasts has weakened the yen further, supporting the rebound in AUD/JP.

Market sentiment

Sentiment indicators from platforms like Investing.com show widespread bullish bias across multiple timeframes, identifying AUD/JPY as a “Strong Buy” via moving averages and technical indicators. Those contributors also highlight a bullish market structure shift on H4 and weekly charts, reinforcing confidence in upside momentum.

Technical analysis

AUD/JPY is likely headed toward resistance at ¥97.40, the high recorded in February that capped the previous leg up. The pair is consolidating above ¥97.41 in a continuation pattern; breaking that level would open a path toward the 61.8% projection (~98.23) of a prior swing.

RSI remains above 50, indicating bullish momentum even during consolidation, while a breakout above 96.44 may lead toward the upper boundary near.

Trading recommendation

Entry (limit buy): ¥95.80–96.90, ideally on a minor pullback or retest of the support zone

Take Profit: 98

Stop Loss: 96

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, EUR/USD rebounded modestly from a recent low near 1.1401, trading around 1.1450 in Asian session after stabilizing around the lower band. While U.S.–EU trade optimism and strong U.S. fundamentals continue to weigh on the euro...

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.14440

Entry Price

1.15000

1.14000

1.16242 -0.00184 -0.16%

44.0

Pips

Loss

1.14000

1.13998

Exit Price

1.14440

Entry Price

1.15000

Overview

EUR/USD dipped to a seven-week low below 1.1400 before recovering to the 1.1450 region in early trading. The decline was driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar buoyed by solid macro prints and a new U.S.–EU trade agreement imposing higher tariffs on European goods forcing a reversal of crowded short-Euro trades .

Market sentiment

Sentiment remains cautious. The dollar has posted its first monthly gain in 2025 (~2.1% in July), leading to a position squeeze among bearish Euro traders. Analysts from UBS, ING, and Citi expect the euro to stay under pressure near term within a broader range of 1.15–1.20.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD edges higher near 1.1450—but will bulls find follow-through?_1

Bears dominate near-term structure:

EUR/USD is hovering at the lower target zone of 1.1421–1.1381 

A break below 1.1400 opens deeper downside toward 1.1330 or 1.1200

However, corrective pullbacks toward 1.1537–1.1550 are possible, where sellers may re-enter.

Technically, short-term indicators show oversold conditions with limited upside buffer; RSI around 35–40 and MACD firmly bearish.

Trading recommendation

Despite prevailing bearish bias, a buy setup exists on corrective bounce from strong support:

Entry : 1.1425–1.1440 (near lower boundary of target zone)

TP: 1.1500 (psychological level + interim resistance)

Stop Loss: below 1.1400 (break of support zone invalidates setup)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On 31/07/2025, GBP/JPY repeatedly turned down near 198.65, immediately after the U.S. PMI data reinforced bullish momentum for the dollar. With the pound losing steam and yen holding firm, technical patterns suggest a corrective leg toward 196.55–197.75 is likely....

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.550

Entry Price

197.750

198.750

207.615 +0.515 +0.25%

80.0

Pips

Profit

197.750

197.737

Exit Price

198.550

Entry Price

198.750

Overview

Following the flash U.S. PMIs, the U.S. Dollar strengthened ahead of the data release boosting DXY and pressuring GBP/JPY lower. GBP/JPY struggled to rise above 198.65, now acting as a strong resistance level. The pair has since reverted, with economies.com confirming the bearish correction bias and targeting 196.55 and 197.75 as logical downside objectives

Market Sentiment

Sentiment has flipped bearish GBP/JPY now resides below its resistance zone, and traders are positioning for further weakness. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged at 0.50%, reinforcing yen strength amid fading pound momentum and softer UK fundamentals.

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY fails resistance at ~198.65 post‑U.S. PMI_1

GBP/JPY declined below the 198.65 pivot confirming rejection. A breakdown beneath Fibonacci 61.8% retracement (~197.50) would cement the move toward 196.55, with further bearish targets at 197.75 if initial momentum wanes. Current form suggests a trading range 196.55–198.10, bearing a bearish outlook.

No clear Ichimoku/Stoch available, but the bearish structure aligns with triangle and channel resistance patterns observed on shorter timeframes. Price action supports continuation lower unless it reclaims 198.65 decisively.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: around 198.45–198.55, after confirming candle rejection below resistance.

TP: 197.75

Stop Loss: 198.75

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

WTI and Brent futures advanced Thursday as renewed geopolitical tensions and aggressive CTA buying rippled through the energy complex. Yet position-limit constraints and a looming supply rebound are expected to cap further upside for WTI.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

68.954

Entry Price

62.650

71.000

59.055 -0.754 -1.26%

216.1

Pips

Profit

62.650

66.793

Exit Price

68.954

Entry Price

71.000

Fundamentals

WTI crude briefly touched the psychological US$70.00/bbl mark before paring gains. The move was underpinned by President Trump’s latest ultimatum to Russia to expedite an end to the Ukraine war, reigniting fears of supply disruptions.

At the same time, Asian refiners—facing elevated premiums for Middle-Eastern sour grades—have pivoted toward U.S. barrels, pushing the WTI-Dubai arbitrage firmly into positive territory. The narrowing spread now renders delivered-WTI cargoes more competitive than regional alternatives.

Market sources confirm that Occidental recently sold a WTI cargo to Japan’s Taiyo Oil at roughly US$3.50/bbl above Dubai’s October swap, loading in the U.S. Gulf and scheduled for October arrival. The deal underscores surging export appetite for WTI and highlights the growing role of U.S. crude in Asia’s supply slate.

Arbitrage Window Opens, U.S. Crude Gains Traction in Asia_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, WTI has cleared both the US$70.00/bbl resistance and its MA100 and MA200, producing a textbook golden-cross formation that validates near-term bullish momentum.

However, the Stochastic Oscillator has already ventured into overbought territory, flagging a short-term mean-reversion risk. Fibonacci retracements show that any technical pullback would meet layered support at 68.46 (the 38.2 % retracement), 67.80 (the 50 % handle) and 67.15 (the 61.8 % golden-ratio level), each acting as a potential reload zone for dip-buyers.

Additionally, although the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting with the overbought threshold, momentum gauges suggest further room to run before exhaustion, implying that the short-covering rebound could still extend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 70.00

Target Price: 62.65

Stop Loss: 71.00

Valid Until: August 15, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 70.00/70.12/71.00

Resistance: 70.00/70.12/71.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve both kept interest rates unchanged. With the August 1st tariff deadline approaching, investors remain cautious, fearing the U.S. may impose tariffs on Canadian exports, a factor that could further pressure the Canadian dollar.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.37000

Entry Price

1.38000

1.36500

1.38468 +0.00321 +0.23%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.36500

1.37793

Exit Price

1.37000

Entry Price

1.38000

Fundamentals

The Bank of Canada today maintained its overnight rate target at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive decision not to cut rates, in line with economists' and financial markets' expectations. From a yield perspective, the Canadian dollar (CAD) remains unattractive. Additionally, as the August 1st tariff deadline nears, investors remain wary of potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, which could weigh further on the Canadian dollar.

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% in July, as widely expected. Although the policy statement leaned slightly dovish, the overall guidance remained neutral, with no clear signals on future policy direction. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged to a high of 99.9.

Technical Analysis

Regarding the daily chart, USDCAD shows an upward-expanding Bollinger Bands structure with diverging moving averages, a bullish signal. A golden cross is formed, alongside a bottom divergence, while prices are climbing along the upper Bollinger Band, the strongest uptrend structure. RSI is around 63, not yet overbought, suggesting further upside potential toward 1.39. Besides, prices have been rising within an uptrend channel in the 4H chart. As long as the trend channel's lower boundary holds, the uptrend is likely to continue. A break below could lead to a search for support. Notably, RSI briefly spiked to 77, entering overbought territory, which may trigger a pullback. Key support levels are the EMA200 and the lower Bollinger Band at 1.37 and 1.365, respectively. The strategy is to buy on dips.

USDCAD Rally Not Over Yet, Potential to Test 1.40 Ahead_1

USDCAD Rally Not Over Yet, Potential to Test 1.40 Ahead_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.37

Target price: 1.38

Stop loss: 1.365

Support: 1.39/1.395/1.4

Resistance: 149.6/150/152.2

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The upward momentum of gold prices was curbed as the Fed chose to hold rates unchanged at its July rate meeting, while Powell released hawkish signals.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3312.44

Entry Price

3190.00

3340.00

4190.89 -7.02 -0.17%

158.0

Pips

Profit

3190.00

3296.64

Exit Price

3312.44

Entry Price

3340.00

Fundamentals

A new round of U.S. tariff measures heated up again this week. The Trump administration imposed tariffs on exports from Brazil and South Korea and planned to impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, while removing the exemption for small overseas parcels. It has sparked fears of renewed global trade friction. This "trade uncertainty" has increased gold's safe-haven appeal, leading to buy-backs after it fell below $3,300.

At the same time, although the Fed held interest rates steady at its July meeting, policymakers remain divided on when to start cutting rates. Most officials did not give a clear timeline for rate cuts, only saying they would "wait for more data" before taking action. This statement has delayed market expectations for rate cuts and dampened the further upward momentum of gold prices. Investors are now focusing on the June core PCE price index to be released today. If the data is less than expected or reaffirms a moderate decline in inflation, it could once again provide support for gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Has the Gold Trend Shifted as Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged?_1

In the daily chart, gold tested the resistance level of 3440 on July 23 and then faced resistance and retreated. After falling below the support level of 3370, it entered a deep correction. Subsequently, it further broke through the uptrend line, indicating that the short-term trend may enter a stage of oscillating downward.

At present, it seems that the gold price rose above the support level of 3250 yesterday, showing signs of reversing its decline and stabilizing. This indicates that the support level is strong. Today, it maintains a rebound trend. However, it is facing the resistance level of 3310-3320 on the upper side, and the short-term upward pressure is gradually aggravated. If it can break through this zone, the gold price may rise to around 3350. If it is pressured and weakens at this resistance level, the gold price may continue to fall to the support level of 3250.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3309.00

Target price: 3190.00

Stop loss: 3340.00

Expiration date: 2025-8-14 23:00:00

Support: 3267.92, 3250.00

Resistance: 3319.00, 3333.94

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The Fed held interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell refraining from signaling imminent rate cuts, bolstering market confidence in the U.S. dollar. The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) surged past 99.9, marking a multi-week high.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

149.300

Entry Price

148.400

149.600

155.891 +0.546 +0.35%

30.0

Pips

Loss

148.400

149.600

Exit Price

149.300

Entry Price

149.600

Fundamentals

The DXY extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session, breaching 99.9 and posting a monthly gain exceeding 3% —its highest level in over five weeks. This momentum stems from the Fed's latest policy decision: despite market hopes for dovish cues, the central bank maintained rates while Powell emphasized a cautious approach to easing, withholding a clear timeline. The resulting uncertainty has reinforced the dollar's appeal.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to revise its 2025 fiscal year inflation forecast upward to 2.5% (unchanged from prior 2.5%) in its quarterly outlook report, while retaining projections of 1.7% and 1.9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Market participants anticipate the BoJ may signal a 25bps rate hike by late 2025 , but such a move could exacerbate the yen's recent weakness, given its already subdued momentum.

Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart: USDJPY remains in a corrective rebound phase, with the MACD golden cross converging toward the zero line, suggesting further upside potential. The RSI at 53 (neutral) and progressively higher lows support the bullish bias. Key resistance levels locate at 152.2 (weekly Bollinger upper band) and the 155 trendline extension.

4-Hour Chart: Price retreated after failing to sustain above 149, indicating near-term pressure. The MACD histogram shows weakening momentum, while the RSI's double-top pattern hints at a pullback risk.

Critical supports: 148.3 (4-hour Bollinger midline) and 146.6 (EMA200). A hold above 148.3 may revive bullish attempts toward 150; a break below targets 146.6.

Given the technical overextension and bearish divergences, shorting on rallies is favored for today's session.