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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6857.13
6857.13
6857.13
6865.94
6827.13
+7.41
+ 0.11%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47850.93
47850.93
47850.93
48049.72
47692.96
-31.96
-0.07%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23505.13
23505.13
23505.13
23528.53
23372.33
+51.04
+ 0.22%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.850
98.930
98.850
98.980
98.740
-0.130
-0.13%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16582
1.16591
1.16582
1.16715
1.16408
+0.00137
+ 0.12%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33515
1.33525
1.33515
1.33622
1.33165
+0.00244
+ 0.18%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4223.21
4223.64
4223.21
4230.62
4194.54
+16.04
+ 0.38%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.334
59.364
59.334
59.480
59.187
-0.049
-0.08%
--

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Amd Chief Says Company Ready To Pay 15% Tax On Ai Chip Shipments To China

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Kremlin Aide Ushakov Says USA Kushner Is Working Very Actively On Ukrainian Settlement

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Norway To Acquire 2 More Submarines, Long-Range Missiles, Daily Vg Reports

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Ucb Sa Shares Open Up 7.3% After 2025 Guidance Upgrade, Top Of Bel 20 Index

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Shares In Italy's Mediobanca Down 1.3% After Barclays Cuts To Underweight From Equal-Weight

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Stats Office - Austrian November Wholesale Prices +0.9% Year-On-Year

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Britain's FTSE 100 Up 0.15%

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Europe's STOXX 600 Up 0.1%

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Taiwan November PPI -2.8% Year-On-Year

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Stats Office - Austrian September Trade -230.8 Million EUR

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Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves Revised To Chf 724906 Million At End Of October - SNB

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Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves At Chf 727386 Million At End Of November - SNB

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Shanghai Warehouse Rubber Stocks Up 8.54% From Week Earlier

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Turkey's Main Banking Index Up 2%

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French October Trade Balance -3.92 Billion Euros Versus Revised -6.35 Billion Euros In September

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Kremlin Aide Says Russia Is Ready To Work Further With Current USA Team

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Kremlin Aide Says Russia And USA Are Moving Forward In Ukraine Talks

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Shanghai Rubber Warehouse Stocks Up 7336 Tons

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Shanghai Tin Warehouse Stocks Up 506 Tons

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra: Goal Is To Have Inflation Be Around 4%

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          Silver Prices Tilt Bullish Amid Economic Uncertainty

          Chandan Gupta

          Traders' Opinions

          Commodity

          Summary:

          Despite yield and dollar upticks, silver stays bullish. Asian central banks, notably China, wield significant influence on precious metals. CPI report could sway Fed policy, affecting silver prices.

          Silver Market Outlook Amid Economic Data

          The silver market, exhibiting resilience, maintains a bullish trend despite challenges like rising yields and a strong US Dollar. This positive sentiment is underpinned by key economic data and central bank activities.

          Global Central Bank Influence

          A significant driver for silver’s bullish trend is the ongoing purchase of gold by central banks in Asia, particularly the People’s Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of India. China’s gold reserves, now at 72.74 million fine troy ounces, exemplify this trend. These purchases are instrumental in bolstering silver prices, as silver often follows gold’s market trajectory.

          US Economic Data and Treasury Yields

          Despite a robust US jobs report suggesting potential bearish pressures, the silver market has sustained its upward momentum. The market is closely watching the upcoming CPI and producer price index, as well as Federal Reserve officials’ statements, for cues on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

          CPI Report and Fed Policy

          The Consumer Price Index report is particularly pivotal. Bank of America predicts a moderation in the CPI for March, which could signal easing inflation pressures. A subdued inflation report might influence the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially leading to a rate cut in June. This scenario could bolster silver prices, as lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.

          Short-term Market Forecast

          Considering these factors, the short-term forecast for silver remains bullish. The market is poised to react to the CPI report, which will provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. A dovish tilt in response to moderated inflation could further fuel the upward momentum in silver prices. Investors should stay alert to the implications of this key economic data and central bank policy decisions in shaping the market’s path.

          Technical Analysis

          Silver Prices Tilt Bullish Amid Economic Uncertainty_1
          XAG/USD reaffirmed its uptrend on Monday in a volatile trade. A move through $28.09 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a trade through $26.28 will change the minor trend to down.
          Nonetheless, given the position of the 50-day moving average at $23.94 and the 200-day moving average at $23.48, any short-term weakness is likely to be attractive to new buyers.
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Loonie Loses Luster: Weak Jobs Data Sends Canadian Dollar to 4-Month Low

          Warren Takunda

          Commodity

          Economic

          The Canadian dollar (CAD) stumbled on Monday, slipping to its lowest level in four months against its US counterpart (USD). This weakness comes on the heels of a disappointing jobs report released by Canada on Friday, which contrasted sharply with robust employment data from the United States.
          Canada's Job Market Falters
          Canada's employment figures for March fell short of expectations, with a meager decline of 2,200 jobs. This follows a robust gain of 40,700 jobs in February and falls considerably short of the market estimate of 25,000 new positions. This marks the first decline in employment in eight months, raising concerns about the health of the Canadian labor market.
          The unemployment rate also climbed slightly, rising from 5.8% to 6.1%, exceeding market predictions of 5.9%. This 0.3% increase is the largest in nearly two years and reflects a growing population that is outpacing job creation.
          US Jobs Boom Casts Shadow on Loonie
          Across the border, the US economy painted a starkly different picture. US non-farm payrolls surged to a whopping 303,000 in March, exceeding expectations by a significant margin and highlighting the resilience of the American labor market. This robust number follows a revised gain of 270,000 jobs in February.
          The unemployment rate in the US also dipped lower, falling to 3.8% from 3.9%, defying market forecasts of 3.9%. Wage growth, however, remained steady at 4.1%, down slightly from the previous reading of 4.3%.
          Rate Cut Expectations on Hold
          The contrasting job reports have cast some doubt on the timing of potential interest rate cuts by both central banks. While the Bank of Canada (BoC) is still widely anticipated to hold rates steady at 5% during its meeting this week, the strong US data might prompt the Federal Reserve to delay its own rate cuts.
          Prior to the jobs report, markets anticipated an initial rate cut from the Fed in June or July. However, these expectations have been trimmed, with an 88% chance of a cut priced in for September. The Fed is still expected to maintain rates at its May 1st meeting.
          Technical Outlook: A Tug-of-War at the Support LevelLoonie Loses Luster: Weak Jobs Data Sends Canadian Dollar to 4-Month Low_1
          The USD/CAD pair currently finds itself caught in a tug-of-war between resistance at 1.3606 and support at 1.3505. The stochastic indicator, which measures price momentum, is currently flashing negative signals, suggesting a potential downward move in the near term. However, a clear break above resistance could lead to a surge in the USD/CAD, potentially reaching 1.3700.
          For the bulls to regain control, they'll need to see a reversal of the negative stochastic signal and a decisive break above the resistance level. This could be fueled by positive surprises from the BoC meeting or a broader weakening of the US dollar. Conversely, a breach of the crucial support level at 1.3505 could trigger a correction, potentially pulling the pair down to 1.3440 initially, with a possible extension to 1.3390. This scenario would likely be supported by continued negative signals from the stochastic indicator and a sustained strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
          In the absence of major surprises, the USD/CAD pair is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with the outcome of the tug-of-war at the support level ultimately determining the next directional move.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Yellen Threatens Sanctions for China Banks That Aid Russia’s War

          Cohen

          Economic

          Political

          US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrapped up four days of talks in China with a warning to the country’s banks and exporters: If you help bolster Russia’s military capacity, Washington will come after you.
          “I stressed that companies, including those in the PRC, must not provide material support for Russia’s war, and that they will face significant consequences if they do,” Yellen said Monday in prepared remarks for a press conference at the US ambassador’s residence in Beijing, using an abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China.
          “Any banks that facilitate significant transactions that channel military or dual-use goods to Russia’s defense industrial base expose themselves to the risk of US sanctions,” she said.
          The Biden administration is trying to crack down on firms worldwide that help Russia evade the net of sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on Moscow since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While China has been the target of past warnings, Yellen’s Monday message, delivered in the Chinese capital, was unusual for its direct threat of sanctions.
          It came on the day that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing to discuss issues including Ukraine. While China describes its position on the war as neutral, trade with Russia has surged since it began.
          America’s ultimate weapon against financial institutions is the Treasury’s ability to cut off their access to US dollars, an existential threat for any bank operating internationally.
          That such a threat now looms over Chinese lenders is another example of the way the two superpowers increasingly find themselves on opposite sides of geopolitical and economic faultlines — pushing even Yellen, arguably the least hawkish of senior Biden administration officials who deal directly with China, to go on the offensive.
          For much of her trip, the Treasury chief has been busy scolding China about something else: what Washington views as excessive investment in manufacturing, especially in new green-energy technologies, to make up for a troubled property sector and weak domestic demand. Yellen’s message has been that Chinese overcapacity will swamp other economies if there’s no change of course.
          That theme has dominated since day one, and it kept recurring through a weekend of talks that both sides termed candid and constructive. The Chinese played gracious hosts and never fired back with an angry response, even in the closed-door meetings, according to senior Treasury officials.
          Beijing has acknowledged there’s too much capacity in at least some industries, though it also accuses the US and other countries of trying to shield their own less-competitive companies.
          Right now the US has some leverage on such matters, because China’s economy is fragile and its leaders realize that many other countries agree with Yellen, according to Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
          “That’s why even though Yellen is making harsh comments, they are not freezing her out,” he said.
          On Monday, after a meeting with Chinese central bank chief Pan Gongsheng, Yellen returned to the issue.
          “I am particularly worried about how China’s enduring macroeconomic imbalances — namely its weak household consumption and business overinvestment, aggravated by large-scale government support in specific industrial sectors — will lead to significant risk to workers and businesses in the US and the rest of the world,” she said.
          The Treasury officials said Yellen specifically urged China to do more to stimulate domestic demand. The Chinese responded, they said, by assuring Yellen they had already taken steps in that direction. They also agreed to launch a new set of talks focused exclusively on “balanced growth in the domestic and global economies,” a euphemism for addressing China’s over-investment in supply.
          Yellen announced that the new talks will get under way next week with a meeting between two US-China working groups in Washington.

          Source:Bloomberg

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Weak Natural Gas Prices Limit US Oil Production Despite $90 Crude

          Ukadike Micheal

          Economic

          Commodity

          U.S. crude oil prices soared to their highest levels this year, with the global Brent oil benchmark trading above $91 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures surpassing $86 a barrel. These price gains were driven by supply risks from attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, ongoing output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), and global shipping disruptions.
          Despite the price surge, U.S. shale drillers are hesitant to ramp up production due to various challenges. Weak natural gas prices, which are trading below $1.80 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu), coupled with steeper operational costs and a focus on maximizing shareholder returns over increasing production, have hindered significant output increases. Many shale operators are grappling with declining gas values alongside oil production, exacerbating financial pressures.
          The Permian Basin, the top U.S. shale field, has witnessed a $4 per barrel increase in breakeven prices for drilling new wells over the last year, further dampening incentives for expansion. Low gas prices, particularly evident in West Texas where producers are paying to have shippers take their gas, are creating additional challenges, with prices at the Waha hub dropping below zero in multiple trade sessions.
          While U.S. oil production is expected to grow modestly this year, market analysts remain cautious about raising growth forecasts in response to higher prices. Rig activity levels have plateaued, indicating that elevated price levels have not yet spurred a significant uptick in drilling activity. Furthermore, access to financing has become more limited, and investor pressures for higher returns are restraining production expansions.
          Additionally, concerns about potential fees on producers for methane releases above certain thresholds are looming, adding to cost burdens. These fees, starting at $900 per metric ton and rising to $1,500 per ton by 2026, could further constrain profitability for oil and gas producers.
          Despite the surge in crude oil prices, various challenges including weak natural gas prices, rising operational costs, and investor demands for higher returns are constraining U.S. shale drillers' ability to significantly increase production. These factors underscore the complex dynamics shaping the energy market landscape and highlight the importance of navigating operational and financial challenges amidst volatile commodity prices and regulatory uncertainties.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Record Surge in Gold Prices Fueled by Asian Central Bank Purchases

          Chandan Gupta

          Commodity

          Traders' Opinions

          Gold Market Outlook

          Gold prices reached new highs, marking a record seventh consecutive session of increase. This surge is primarily attributed to significant purchases by Asian central banks, despite a stronger U.S. dollar and high interest rates.

          Central Banks’ Influence on Gold Prices

          The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Reserve Bank of India have been actively increasing their gold reserves, contributing to the recent spike in gold prices. China’s gold reserves grew to 72.74 million fine troy ounces in March, signaling strong official sector demand. This substantial buying by global central banks is a key driver of the current price surge.

          China’s Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves

          China’s foreign exchange reserves, the largest globally, rose to $3.246 trillion in March. Concurrently, the value of China’s gold reserves increased to $161.07 billion. These factors, coupled with the yuan’s depreciation against the dollar, underscore the nation’s growing interest in gold as a reserve asset.

          Market Reactions and Predictions

          Despite challenges from strong U.S. economic data and potential interest rate hike delays, bullion prices have climbed over 13% this year. UBS has revised its year-end bullion target to $2,250 per ounce, anticipating increased demand and ETF buying. However, physical gold demand in India has been muted due to rising domestic prices.

          U.S. Economic Indicators and Treasury Yields

          Investors are closely monitoring U.S. Treasury yields and key economic data, including the March consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), to gauge inflation trends and interest rate expectations. The robust labor market data, with nonfarm payrolls exceeding estimates, suggests a potentially prolonged period of high interest rates.

          US Dollar and Global Economic Indicators

          The U.S. dollar remains firm, influenced by recent jobs data and expectations for the upcoming inflation report. Global currency trends this week will also be affected by the European Central Bank meeting. With mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials, the market is seeking clarity on the economic outlook and rate decisions.

          Short-Term Market Forecast

          Considering the strong central bank buying, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the upcoming inflation data, the gold market appears to be in a bullish phase. Central banks’ continued interest in gold, combined with global economic uncertainties, suggests that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term.

          Technical Analysis

          Record Surge in Gold Prices Fueled by Asian Central Bank Purchases_1
          XAU/USD is in an uptrend with no visible resistance, however, a close below $2330.16 will signal that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.
          A trade through the intraday high at $2354.16 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through $2267.78 will change the minor trend to down.
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          How India Can Take China’s Growth Crown

          Alex

          Economic

          China is slowing and Western governments increasingly see it as a rival rather than an economic partner. On its southwestern border, another rising economy is vying to take its place as the world’s next growth driver.
          India’s stock market is booming, foreign investment is flooding in and governments are lining up to sign new trade deals with the youthful market of 1.4 billion people. Aircraft makers like Boeing Inc. are taking record orders, Apple Inc. is scaling up iPhone production, and suppliers that have long clustered around manufacturing corridors of southern China are following.
          For all the optimism, India’s $3.5 trillion economy is still dwarfed by the $17.8 trillion behemoth that is China and economists say it would take a lifetime to catch up. Shoddy roads, patchy education, red tape and a lack of skilled workers are just a few of the many deficiencies western companies run into when setting up shop.
          But there’s one important measure where India could overtake its northern neighbor far more quickly: As the engine of global economic growth. Bullish investment banks, such as Barclays, believe that India can become the world’s largest contributor to growth within Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s next term. His party is widely expected to win elections set to begin in weeks.
          Exclusive analysis by Bloomberg Economics is even more optimistic, finding that India can reach that milestone by 2028 on a purchasing power parity basis. To get there, Modi will need to hit ambitious goals in four crucial development areas — building better infrastructure, expanding the skills and participation of the workforce, building better cities to house all those workers, and luring more factories to provide them jobs.How India Can Take China’s Growth Crown_1
          There is a template. Following reforms in the late 1970s that opened its economy to the world, China’s growth averaged 10% a year for three decades. That made it a magnet for foreign capital and gave it greater clout on the world stage. Every big global company had to have a China strategy.
          But the so-called ‘miracle’ phase of China’s expansion is now in the past as a property crisis intersects with growing Western concerns over its dominance of supply chains and advances in sensitive technologies.
          That’s where India comes in. Modi’s government is seeking to make the Indian economy more competitive, a shift that’s appealing to Western businesses looking to diversify away from China in search of a deep well of cheap labor. Modi has made India’s accelerating economy a major part of his election pitch, pledging at a rally last year to lift the country’s economy “to the top position in the world” should he win a third term.
          The government’s allocation to infrastructure has more than tripled from five years ago to above 11 trillion rupees ($132 billion) for the 2025 fiscal year, a figure that could exceed 20 trillion rupees if states’ spending is thrown in. Modi is projected to invest 143 trillion rupees to improve rail, roads, ports, waterways and other crucial infrastructure in the six years through 2030.
          At the same time, his government has sought to tamp down inflation by banning exports of wheat and rice. Earlier this decade, the government rolled out incentive programs of some 2.7 trillion rupees to encourage domestic manufacturing, with companies getting tax breaks, lower land rates, and capital to set up factories in India from states as well.
          In Bloomberg Economics’s base case scenario, India’s economy will accelerate to 9% by the end of the decade, while China slows to 3.5%. That puts India on course to overtake China as the world’s biggest growth driver by 2028. Even in the most pessimistic scenario — in line with the IMF’s projections for the next five years in which growth stays below 6.5% — India overtakes China’s contribution in 2037.
          Of course, all forecasting by definition relies on incomplete information. Black swan events or an economic shock can throw any forecast out the window.
          In a recent interview, India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran cautioned against making comparisons with China given the size of its economy is much larger. But he noted that India’s growth potential, its younger population, infrastructure buildout and the potential to expand its middle class to as many as 800 million people represents a clear value proposition for foreign investors.
          “That is the biggest draw,” he said. “It’s not just cost competitiveness, it’s also the marketplace, the ability to generate economic returns, the rule of law and the stability of policies with respect to international investors being able to repatriate your money relatively easily.”
          In some sectors — such as aviation — there is evidence that India’s lofty growth expectations might just pan out.
          Last year, IndiGo, the country’s biggest airline, and Air India Ltd. placed record deals for 970 aircraft with Airbus SE. and Boeing. India’s newest airline, Akasa, also ordered 150 jets from Boeing earlier this year.
          Salil Gupte, president of Boeing India, said a combination of new airports, an array of aviation startups and growing demand for domestic travel stemming from a rising middle class are fueling demand for planes.
          “You see startup airlines that have grown faster than any other startups in the history of aviation coming up in India over the last year,” he said. “All of those factors drive a significant civil aviation market opportunity.”
          The U.S. company in January inaugurated a new engineering center in Bengaluru in southern India that will cost $200 million and be the company’s largest investment outside of the US when complete, coming on top of a pledge to spend $100 million on infrastructure and pilot training over the next two decades to meet the growing demand for pilots.How India Can Take China’s Growth Crown_2
          Economists point to new infrastructure as a key ingredient for faster development. Airports illustrate the potential for catch up growth: India last year had about 148 airports, lagging China by more than 100, and aims to boost the number to 220 by next year.
          Infrastructure spending is critical for rapid development because it provides jobs and serves as a growth multiplier by cutting logistics costs, facilitating trade and encouraging businesses to set up shop once transport links have been made.
          That’s what’s happening in Noida on the southeastern edge of the capital city New Delhi, where vast blocks of new electronics factories have sprung up, evoking the rapid expansion of the manufacturing districts of Shenzhen in southern China in prior decades.
          Dixon Technologies Ltd., an Indian contract manufacturer, has broken ground on a 1 million square-foot mobile-phone assembly plant on a plot of land rimmed by orchards and wide highways in Noida’s south. On a recent visit, more than 200 hard-hatted workers were on site tearing up the earth and laying the foundation for the factory that will begin to churn out smartphones next year.
          The company’s workforce has grown from around 9,000 before the pandemic to about 26,000 today, explains Sunil Vachani, the chairman and co-founder. Vachani said Dixon is benefitting from a boom in new business from clients like Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp. and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co. wishing to use its factories to manufacture goods for India’s rising middle class.
          “What we’re used to seeing in China is these large mega factories, where thousands of people are working on one campus and live on that campus,” said Vachani. “We are also trying to do that in India.”
          Expanding India’s manufacturing capacity is critical to boosting growth. The service sector simply doesn’t create enough jobs and generally recruits from the educated labor pool, whereas the manufacturing sector relies more heavily on large numbers of less skilled workers — a key force that helped power China’s economy and put its massive labor force to work.
          “We have this very large, surplus labor in agriculture that cannot tomorrow start writing code,” said Sabyasachi Kar, professor at the Institute of Economic Growth, a Delhi think tank. Manufacturing “is the process through which we have to bring these people out of the agriculture sector and into employment.”
          Dixon’s Vachani said he has no problems recruiting workers for his factories from the nearby towns of Uttar Pradesh, the state where Noida is located. With about 200 million people, Uttar Pradesh is India’s most populous state and is known for its large agricultural economy and high unemployment rate.
          “If you want to set up a factory employing 50,000 people, you can do that today,” he said. “You can get that manpower within a month, maximum.”
          India stands out as the sole country with a population large enough to offset retiring factory workers in advanced economies and China. Bloomberg Economics estimates that some 48.6 million medium skilled workers — typically employed on the factory floor — will retire from China and advanced economies from 2020 to 2040. In the same period, India will add 38.7 million such workers.
          How India Can Take China’s Growth Crown_3
          Modi has sought to lure manufacturers with heavy incentives such as tax cuts, rebates and capital support. The strategy has had early success with firms like Apple and Samsung Electronics Co. ramping up production.
          But they are often assembling phones from parts made in China, rather than building them from scratch. Earlier this year, India reduced tariffs on several mobile-device components to boost production and make its exports competitive. Industries including textiles, leather, and engineering goods have also made the case for lower import duties.
          “There’s no doubt that we are still dependent on China,” says Vachani. “I think it’s moving in the right direction, but I think it’s still there.”
          Despite years of efforts to boost manufacturing, it still only accounted for about 15.8% of India’s GDP output in 2023 compared with 26.4% in China, according to the latest national statistics. Even if India’s manufacturing sector consistently grows by three percentage points more than the headline growth, the country wouldn’t attain Modi’s goal of 25% share in manufacturing until 2040, according to Bloomberg Economics.
          One major obstacle for India is labor force participation, or the share of the working-age population that’s actually working or looking for a job. India has one of the world’s lowest, at 55.4% in 2022, according to the International Labour Organization, compared with 76% in China. For women, the figure is lower still — less than a third of working-age Indian women participate in the workforce.
          “We need all the jobs we can get,” said Raghuram Rajan, a former governor of India’s central bank who now teaches at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “I would make India an inviting place for manufacturers, domestic and foreign, to set up if they can.”
          But first, India needs to make its workforce more employable.
          “India has a lot of extremes. It has the brightest minds, and then the greatest institutes in India that compete with the Ivy League universities, but then on average human capital levels are just not quite comparable to most other countries in the region, let alone higher or more developed countries,” said Alexandra Hermann, lead economist for Asia macro at Oxford Economics Ltd.
          Then there’s the need to house all those workers as they shift from rural areas to cities. Just 36% of India’s population live in cities versus 64% in China, with decades of urbanization needed to close that gap.
          “India needs a lot more cities,” said Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Mumbai. “There is a lot of progress already happening in terms of interconnectivity for the cities, in terms of more railway network, better infrastructure for airports and so forth. But there are crucial problems like water, like traffic, like our big housing that needs to be solved.”
          If Indian policymakers can build more homes in better functioning cities and get more people trained and into the manufacturing sector, the country is ideally placed to cash in on the global search for the next China. But even then, it’ll have to contend with something China didn’t during its economic ascent — the existence of a massive rival that overwhelmingly dominates global supply chains.
          Ashok Gupta, chairman of Optiemus Infracom Ltd., an electronics manufacturer based in Noida, said his company has been a beneficiary as sentiment toward China sours and foreign firms look to diversify their supply chains. The company last year announced a joint venture with Corning Inc., the US maker of glass for smartphone screens and other products, and the two are set to open a factory in southern India next year.
          “The geopolitical situation, that is an opportunity for us,” he said. But he conceded that Indian manufacturers still have a long way to go to compete with Chinese rivals. For example, the factory with Corning will not actually be manufacturing smartphone glass, but instead will be importing it in sheets to finish and fashion into the final product, he said.
          “In this industry, China is 20 years ahead,” he said. “We are only starting.”

          Source:Bloomberg

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          S&P 500 and Nasdaq Experience Volatility Amid Pressure from Elevated Bond Yields

          Ukadike Micheal

          Economic

          Cryptocurrency

          Stocks

          The S&P 500 and Nasdaq exhibited uncertainty in early trading on Monday as rising Treasury yields fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might delay interest-rate cuts in 2024. Last week's hawkish commentary from central bank officials, alongside stronger-than-expected economic reports, suggested a resilient U.S. economy, reducing pressure on the Fed to swiftly implement rate cuts.
          Investors recalibrated their expectations on the timing of rate cuts, with the probability of the Fed announcing its first rate cut in June decreasing to around 51%, down from approximately 58% at the beginning of the previous week. Moreover, expectations of more than three rate cuts this year have been tempered, with the market now anticipating between three and four cuts, compared to the previous outlook of more than three cuts.
          The focus now turns to the upcoming release of the March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show a rise in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year. Additionally, investors await the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, where the central bank adhered to its guidance of three rate cuts in 2024.
          Market participants will also closely monitor commentary from Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Neel Kashkari for further policy cues. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5,535, the highest among Wall Street brokerages, signaling optimism about the market's performance.
          Amidst the market's fluctuations, Tesla shares surged by 4.6% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of plans to unveil the Robotaxi on August 8. In early trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 0.19%, the S&P 500 was nearly flat, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.09%.
          Cryptocurrency-related stocks experienced gains in tandem with rising bitcoin prices, with companies like Coinbase Global, Marathon Digital, and MicroStrategy adding between 8.2% and 11.2%.
          Overall, the market exhibited a positive tone, with advancing issues outnumbering decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges. The S&P index and Nasdaq recorded several new highs, indicating underlying strength in certain sectors despite the prevailing uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and economic conditions.
          While the market navigates through fluctuations driven by interest-rate speculation and economic indicators, investors should remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market dynamics. The upcoming CPI release and further commentary from Federal Reserve officials will likely provide additional clarity on the direction of monetary policy and its implications for the broader market.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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