Who Won and Lost in Trump´s Tax Bill

Economic

Political

Summary:

The bill includes $4.5 trillion worth of tax cuts, according to a Saturday estimate from the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Business investors and wealthy Americans are among the biggest winners in President Donald Trump’s tax bill. Those hit the hardest by the sweeping package include elite universities, who face new levies, and immigrants.

Here’s who won and who lost in the legislative centerpiece of the president’s domestic agenda:

Winners

Multimillionaires

The rich gain the ability to pass more wealth on to their heirs and dodge a tax increase. The bill includes $4.5 trillion worth of tax cuts, according to a Saturday estimate from the Joint Committee on Taxation.

The estate tax exemption rises to $15 million for individuals — totaling $30 million for married couples — and then adjust with inflation. The 2017 Trump income tax rate cuts also become permanent, with benefits skewing toward the wealthy.

Residents of High-Tax States

The limit on the state and local tax deduction rises to $40,000 annually for a five-year period. The write-off phases out for taxpayers who make more than $500,000 per year. After the five-year period, the limit snaps back to the current $10,000 limit imposed in the 2017 tax law.

Small Business Owners

The 2017 law that allowed pass-through business to deduct up to 20% of their qualified business income from their taxable income is permanently extended beginning in the tax year 2026. The deduction is available to owners of sole proprietorships, LLCs and partnerships.

Private Equity

The carried interest tax break benefiting private equity, venture capital and real estate partnerships is maintained, despite the president’s push to eliminate it. Private equity also won an expanded interest expensing tax break.

Domestic Car Dealers

Up to $10,000 a year in loan interest for US-made cars becomes tax deductible through 2028, a boon to auto dealers looking to close sales. But the break phases out slowly for individuals with more than $100,000 in income and couples with more than $200,000.

Manufacturers

The bill revives several favorable tax rules for businesses, including bonus depreciation for the cost of production upgrades and a research and development tax break, winning the endorsement of the National Association of Manufacturers. The final legislation makes permanent those breaks, which were temporary in an earlier version of the bill that passed the House in May.

Fossil Fuel Producers

Industries like coal, oil and natural gas win tax breaks and new requirements to open up more federal land for drilling, while breaks for competing clean energy technologies are phased out.

Elderly and Tipped Workers

In a nod to some of Trump’s populist campaign promises, taxpayers 65 and older get a larger standard deduction, while tips and overtime pay are exempted from income taxes. The provisions include limits to shrink their cost and expire after 2028.

Parents

The maximum child tax credit increases by an additional $200 from $2,000 starting in tax year 2025 and is permanently indexed to inflation. Parents could open up new “Trump accounts” for their babies seeded with $1,000 from the government for children born from 2025 through 2028.

Telecommunications

The bill auctions off a massive amount of radio spectrum for use in wireless broadband, a potential boon for services like SpaceX’s Starlink and 5G and future 6G mobile networks.

Corporations

Other tax increases that had been considered that would have hit big business, such as an increase in the stock buyback tax or a limit on the state and local deduction for corporations, were mostly rejected.

Defense Contractors

The package boosts defense spending by $150 billion, with much of the funding going to new weapons systems made by major contractors.

Space

The bill provides nearly $10 billion to fund projects including efforts to reach the Moon and Mars and eventually decommission the international space station.

Losers

Low-Income Americans

Some of the costs for the tax bill are defrayed through cuts to Medicaid health coverage and food stamps, both of which benefit low-income Americans. On average, the legislation will cost the bottom 20% of taxpayers $560 a year, according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis.

The measure creates new work requirements for Medicaid recipients, unless they are elderly, disabled or have children under 14 years old. Medicaid beneficiaries who gained eligibility through the Affordable Care Act will have to pay a share of costs through charges like co-pays.

Food assistance for low-income Americans is cut by expanding existing work requirements for federal food stamps to cover beneficiaries up to 65 years old. Beginning in 2028, states also are required to pay a portion of food benefit costs, which are now fully paid by the federal government.

Renewable Energy

Clean energy industries are hit by the Republican plan, which rolls back many provisions of former President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law.

A tax credit for solar panels and wind systems is quickly phased out, though the legislation takes more time to eliminate other clean electricity production and investment credits.

Tax credits for energy efficiency home improvements and residential installation of solar or other clean energy upgrades are eliminated at the end of the year.

Technology Companies

The Senate squelched a controversial effort in the bill to prevent US states from regulating artificial intelligence, delivering a win for tech industry critics and a blow to the likes of Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc., as well as venture capital firms like Andreessen Horowitz.

Trump administration officials and GOP allies in Silicon Valley had pushed the measure saying it would prevent a patchwork of cumbersome state-by-state regulations.

Electric Vehicle Makers

Tesla Inc., General Motors Co. and other electric vehicle makers are hit by elimination of a consumer tax credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of electric vehicles.

Elite Universities

Add tax bills to the escalating battle the Trump administration is waging against elite universities such as Harvard and Columbia.

The current 1.4% tax on net investment income of private college and university endowments ratchets up for better-funded institutions. The new tiered tax rate structure climbs as high as 8% for colleges with the most endowment income per student.

Immigrants

Several provisions raise taxes on immigrants. That includes a new 1% tax on transfers of money to foreign countries, known as remittances. Many immigrants in the US send money to relatives in their countries of origin.

The proposal also restricts some immigrants’ access to tax credits for health coverage premiums. The change prevents many immigrants granted asylum or temporary protected status from accessing those credits.

Gamblers

Gamblers would only be able to deduct 90% of their losses against their winnings, leading to a situation where they could still owe income tax if they break even over a year or lose money overall.

Source: Bloomberg

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