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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6966.29
6966.29
6966.29
6978.37
6917.65
+44.83
+ 0.65%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
49504.06
49504.06
49504.06
49571.41
49197.06
+237.96
+ 0.48%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23671.34
23671.34
23671.34
23721.15
23426.48
+191.33
+ 0.81%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.860
98.940
98.860
98.980
98.600
+0.290
+ 0.29%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16309
1.16389
1.16309
1.16618
1.16179
-0.00271
-0.23%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33930
1.34121
1.33930
1.34505
1.33922
-0.00468
-0.35%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4509.15
4509.15
4509.15
4517.06
4452.75
+31.36
+ 0.70%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
58.641
58.670
58.641
59.589
57.491
+0.393
+ 0.67%
--

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PM: Sweden 'Highly Critical' Of US Rhetoric On Greenland And Denmark

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[Bitcoin Breaks $91,000, 24-Hour Change 0.32%] January 11, According To Htx Market Data, Bitcoin Broke Through $91,000, With A 24-Hour Percentage Change Of 0.32%

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Iranian President: We Will Weather This Crisis

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Trump: Venezuela Now Has United States Of America To Protect Them

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Trump: There Will Be No More Oil Or Money Going To Cuba

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Indian Prime Minister Modi: India Is Moving Quickly Toward Becoming The Third Largest Economy

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China Nonferrous Mining Says Overall Copper Output For 2026 Expected At About 484000 Metric Tons

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Iran's Pezeshkian Says USA, Israel Are Ordering "Rioters" To Create Instability In Iran

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Iran's Pezeshkian Says The Establishment Is Ready To Listen To Its People

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Iran's Pezeshkian Says His Government Is Determined To Resolve People's Economic Problems

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Iran's President Pezeshkian Says Iran's Enemies Want To 'Sow Chaos And Disorder' After The 12-Days-War

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[Morgan Stanley China Chief Economist Xing Ziqiang: Dollar Depreciation Leads To Appreciation Of Strategic Assets] On January 11, Xing Ziqiang, Chief Economist For China At Morgan Stanley, Stated At The 2026 China Chief Economist Forum That The Fiat Currency System, Represented By The US Dollar, Is Experiencing Credit Erosion, Leading To A Depreciation Trend Relative To Assets Outside Of Fiat Currencies. Strategic Assets Such As Energy And Precious Metals, As Well As Some Non-traditional Fiat Currency Assets, Are Increasingly Favored By The Market. Regarding The Future Trend Of The US Dollar, Xing Ziqiang Stated That The Current US Model Of Using High Growth And High Inflation To Lower Real Interest Rates And Thus Resolve Debt Is Similar To The Methods Used By The US To Resolve Debt After World War II. In The Long Run, Debt Resolution Methods Have Side Effects, And The Trend Of Dollar Depreciation Has Gradually Become Apparent

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Nordic Diplomats Rejected US President Donald Trump's Claims Of Russian And Chinese Vessels Operating Near Greenland

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[Germany To Propose NATO Arctic Mission To Ease Greenland Dispute] According To Two Sources Familiar With The Matter, Germany Will Propose A Joint NATO Mission To Monitor And Protect Security Interests In The Arctic. This Move Is Intended To Ease Tensions Arising From The US Threat To Annex Greenland. NATO's "Baltic Sentinel" Mission, Launched A Year Ago To Protect Critical Baltic Infrastructure, Could Serve As A Blueprint For This New "Arctic Sentinel" Mission Covering Greenland

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A Thousand Kyiv Apartment Blocks Still Without Heating After Russian Strike

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China Foreign Minister: Opposes Somaliland's 'Collusion With Taiwan Authorities'

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[Eurostat: Anti-Russian Sanctions Have Caused EU Countries To Lose €48 Billion In Exports] The Latest Data From Eurostat Shows That Since The Escalation Of The Russia-Ukraine Conflict In February 2022, Multiple Rounds Of EU Sanctions Against Russia Have Resulted In Export Losses For EU Countries Amounting To €48 Billion. Data Shows That In The First Ten Months Of 2025, EU Exports To Russia Amounted To €25 Billion, Compared To €73 Billion In The Same Period Of 2021. This Represents A Sharp Drop In Exports Of Approximately 65%

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SOMO - Iraq Sets February Basrah Medium Crude Official Selling Price To North And South America At Minus $1.10/Bbl Versus Asci

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SOMO - Iraq Sets February Basrah Medium Crude Official Selling Price To Europe At Minus $3.55/Bbl Versus Dated Brent

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SOMO - Iraq Sets February Basrah Medium Crude Official Selling Price To Asia At Minus $1.30/Bbl To Oman/Dubai Average

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    NOUR AMIN FX
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    @NOUR AMIN FXbeen a while mate, how have you been, i usually see you more during the competition phases.
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    @topan HELLO TOPAM
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    @NOUR AMIN FXthe competition would be starting out on the 20th of this month, the monday after tomorrow, the competition would start
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    @Abdullah Rpocket broker is a broker that offers option trading opportunities. is this what you use for trading?
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          What is Market Liquidity and Why is it Important for Traders?

          Saif

          Economic

          Summary:

          Liquidity is the lifeblood that courses through the veins of trading. It’s the force that keeps markets vibrant, dynamic and capable of serving the needs of investors and traders alike. Here I’ll aim to unravel the intricate tapestry of market liquidity, exploring how it works and how price tirelessly searches for it.

          In its raw form, liquidity refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold in a market without significantly affecting their prices. Imagine a bustling marketplace where buyers and sellers gather to exchange goods. If there are plenty of participants, and they are willing to buy and sell freely, that market is considered liquid.
          Conversely, a market with few participants or where they hesitate to trade is deemed illiquid.
          An example of supply versus demand is if you had a one-of-a-kind car, let’s say it’s some vintage Ferrari. It’s a one-off; the supply is limited, but the demand would be high so the price could get driven up by the lack of supply. This is an example of low liquidity.
          The opposite would be true if someone were selling sand in Saudi Arabia. The demand would be low as it’s accessible to most there; this also means the price would be driven down. So, whilst the sand is a wild example, tone this back a little and change the ‘item’ for something like gold or Bitcoin.
          In both assets, there is supply; in both instruments, there is demand. Liquidity will change depending on the price and availability at that price.

          The Two Sides of Market Liquidity

          To grasp the intricacies of market liquidity, it is essential to understand the two sides of the liquidity coin: bid and ask.
          Bid Liquidity. This represents the pool of willing buyers in the market. When you decide to sell an asset, you are essentially tapping into the bid liquidity. The more buyers there are at various price levels, the deeper the bid liquidity, and the easier it is to find a buyer at a desirable price.
          Ask Liquidity. On the flip side is ask liquidity, the pool of willing sellers. When you wish to buy an asset, you interact with the ask liquidity. Deeper ask liquidity means you have a better chance of finding a seller at a favourable price.
          The balance between bid and ask liquidity dictates the market’s overall health. If there is an equilibrium between the two, it signifies a healthy and efficient market. However, an imbalance, where one side significantly outweighs the other, can lead to price gaps and excessive volatility.

          The Mechanics of Market Liquidity

          Market liquidity is not a static concept; it constantly evolves. Understanding its mechanics can show how it works and how price interacts with it.
          Order Book. At the heart of market liquidity lies the order book. This real-time ledger displays all pending buy and sell orders for a particular asset. The order book is often divided into two sections: the bid side and the ask side.
          On the bid side, you see a list of buy orders with corresponding prices and quantities.
          On the ask side, you find sell orders with prices and quantities.
          The order book is used to gauge market sentiment and assess the depth of liquidity at different price levels. It helps make informed decisions about when and at what price to enter or exit a trade.
          Market Participants. Liquidity results from the collective actions of various market participants. These participants include individual retail traders, institutional investors, market makers and high-frequency trading firms. Each group contributes to the overall liquidity landscape in its unique way.
          Retail traders often provide liquidity by placing market orders and buying or selling assets at prevailing prices.
          Institutional investors, with their large trades, can absorb liquidity by executing substantial orders that might not be immediately matched.
          Market makers play a crucial role by constantly quoting bid and ask prices, ensuring there is always some level of liquidity available in the market.
          High-frequency trading firms engage in algorithmic trading to profit from minor price discrepancies and, in the process, contribute to liquidity provision.
          Volatility and Liquidity. Liquidity and price volatility share an intricate relationship. High liquidity tends to dampen price swings, while low liquidity can exacerbate them. When there is an influx of market orders or a sudden news event, liquidity can evaporate, leading to price gaps and rapid price changes.

          How Price Hunts for Liquidity

          Price discovery is the process by which asset prices find equilibrium in the market. It’s a continuous tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, and liquidity plays a pivotal role in this dance.
          Tapping into the Order Book. When a trader or investor places an order in the market, they are essentially tapping into the existing order book. If they place a market order, they will be matched with the best available prices in the order book, instantly consuming liquidity.
          Price Impact. Large orders have the potential to move the market. As buyers or sellers exhaust the available liquidity at a particular price level, they may need to transact at less favourable prices as they move further into the order book. This phenomenon is known as price impact.
          Slippage. This occurs when a trade is executed at a price different from the expected price due to a lack of liquidity. It can happen during periods of high volatility or when dealing with illiquid assets.
          Hunting for Hidden Liquidity. Traders employ various strategies to pursue hidden liquidity. For instance, they may use iceberg orders, which only display a portion of the total order size, keeping the rest hidden to avoid impacting the market too significantly.
          Impact on Trading Strategies. Liquidity considerations influence trading strategies. For example, in highly liquid markets, traders might opt for high-frequency strategies that capitalise on small price movements. In contrast, they may adopt a more patient, long-term approach in illiquid markets.

          Factors Affecting Market Liquidity

          Market liquidity is not constant, it ebbs and flows in response to a myriad of factors. Here are some key determinants.
          Market Hours. Liquidity often follows market hours. Assets traded in different time zones will experience varying levels of liquidity depending on the time of day. Liquidity tends to be highest during market hours when participants are most active.
          Asset Type. Different types of assets exhibit varying levels of liquidity. For example, major currency pairs in the forex market are highly liquid, while thinly traded stocks may be illiquid.
          Economic Events. Economic releases, earnings reports and geopolitical events can significantly impact liquidity. Traders often brace for increased volatility and potential liquidity shortages during such events.
          Market Sentiment. Sentiment can sway liquidity. Bullish sentiment can lead to a rush of buyers, increasing liquidity on the bid side, while bearish sentiment can do the opposite.
          Regulatory Changes. Regulatory changes can alter the market’s liquidity landscape. For instance, introducing new rules or regulations can impact the behaviour of market participants and, consequently, liquidity.
          Think of it like the market needs to grab liquidity one way to go and move the opposite way. Once it has collected new orders and stop losses, it’s likely to accelerate the other way. It is this that causes the waves and these are broken down into motive and pullback waves.

          Source: Lewis Daniels,Mayfair Ventures

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Japan's Wholesale Inflation Accelerates, Keeps BOJ Rate-hike Plan in Focus

          Owen Li

          Central Bank

          Economic

          The data for November comes ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) two-day policy meeting ending on Dec 19, when some analysts expect it to raise short-term interest rates from the current 0.25 per cent.
          The corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, rose 3.7 per cent last month from a year earlier, BOJ data showed, exceeding a median market forecast for a 3.4 per cent gain and marking the fastest annual pace of increase since last July.
          The increase, which followed a 3.6 per cent gain in October, was due to higher prices for food, non-ferrous metals and plastic goods reflecting rising commodity and labour costs. The index, at 124.3, extended a record high for the third straight month.
          "We're seeing renewed inflationary pressure in domestic corporate goods prices," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
          "While consumption lacks momentum, real wages are no longer falling much. Given building inflationary pressure, there's a good chance the BOJ could raise rates in December," he said.
          Agricultural and fishery goods prices spiked 31 per cent in November from year-before levels, after a 28.1 per cent gain in October, due largely to the soaring price of rice, the data showed.
          The yen-based import price index fell 1.2 per cent in November, slower than a 2.2 per cent drop in October, a sign the currency's rebound has not been strong enough to significantly push down the cost of importing raw material.
          While the yen is off a three-decade low near 162 to the US dollar hit in July, it has weakened to around 152 recently after touching a high near 141 in mid-September.
          The data casts doubt on the BOJ's view that inflationary pressure from raw material imports will dissipate and ease the burden on households in a boost to consumption and the broader economy.
          Wholesale price data is seen as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, which the central bank uses as a benchmark in setting monetary policy.
          The BOJ ended a decade-long, radical stimulus programme in March and raised short-term interest rates to 0.25 per cent in July on the view Japan was progressing towards sustainably achieving its 2 per cent inflation target.
          BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled readiness to hike rates again in the near-term if the bank becomes more convinced that inflation will stay around 2 per cent backed by solid consumption and wage growth.

          Source:Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Custom Indicators to Improve Forex Trading

          Glendon

          Economic

          The Forex market is known for its dynamic nature, requiring traders to adapt their strategies to ever-changing conditions. While standard indicators like Moving Averages and RSI are popular, they might not cater to every trader's unique needs. Enter custom indicators—tailor-made tools designed to give traders a competitive edge.
          This article explores what custom indicators are, how they work, and how you can use them to improve your Forex trading outcomes.

          What Are Custom Indicators?

          Custom indicators are technical tools designed and programmed to analyze market data in unique ways. Unlike built-in indicators in platforms like MetaTrader 4/5, these indicators are often created to serve specific trading strategies or provide insights that standard tools might overlook.
          They can range from simple tweaks of existing indicators to entirely new algorithms based on proprietary methods or trading ideas.

          Why Use Custom Indicators?

          Custom indicators provide several advantages:
          Tailored Analysis: Adapt to specific strategies, timeframes, or asset classes.
          Enhanced Precision: Improve entry and exit signals by filtering noise or focusing on unique patterns.
          Uncommon Insights: Access data analysis not available in standard indicators.
          Competitive Edge: Stand out in a market where many traders rely on similar tools.

          Examples of Custom Indicators

          Supply and Demand Zones

          These indicators highlight key support and resistance areas based on historical price data. They are invaluable for traders who focus on reversal points.

          Multi-Timeframe Indicators

          Instead of switching between charts, these tools allow you to view higher or lower timeframe data on the same chart. For instance, you could track the daily RSI on an hourly chart.

          Custom Oscillators

          Oscillators like Stochastic or RSI can be customized to include non-standard smoothing techniques or dynamic overbought/oversold levels.

          Volume Profile Indicators

          These tools provide a detailed view of price levels with the most trading activity, helping traders identify significant areas of interest.

          How to Use Custom Indicators Effectively

          Define Your Goals

          Before implementing a custom indicator, understand what you want to achieve. Are you looking for better entry points, clearer trend signals, or more robust risk management?

          Backtest Thoroughly

          Test the indicator on historical data to ensure its reliability and compatibility with your trading style.

          Combine with Other Tools

          Use custom indicators alongside standard tools or price action techniques for confirmation. For example, combine a custom trend indicator with Fibonacci retracement levels to validate potential reversal points.

          Avoid Overloading

          While it’s tempting to use multiple indicators, too many on a single chart can lead to analysis paralysis. Focus on tools that complement each other.

          Developing Your Own Custom Indicator

          If you have a unique trading idea, consider developing your own indicator. Platforms like MetaTrader allow you to code custom tools using MQL4/MQL5. Alternatively, you can hire a professional programmer to turn your concept into reality.

          Risks of Using Custom Indicators

          While custom indicators offer unique advantages, they come with risks:
          Overfitting: Indicators fine-tuned for specific data may fail in live markets.
          Dependency: Relying solely on indicators can lead to ignoring fundamental market dynamics.
          Cost: Purchasing or developing custom tools can be expensive.

          Conclusion

          Custom indicators can revolutionize your Forex trading by providing unique insights tailored to your strategy. However, they are tools—not guarantees of success. The key lies in understanding their strengths and limitations while integrating them thoughtfully into your trading plan.
          Whether you’re tweaking an existing tool or building one from scratch, custom indicators can help you navigate the complexities of Forex trading with confidence and precision.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Best Keyboard Shortcuts for MetaTrader 4/5

          Glendon

          Economic

          In the fast-paced world of trading, every second counts. MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) are powerful trading platforms, and knowing their keyboard shortcuts can significantly boost your efficiency and precision. This guide delves into the most useful shortcuts, along with practical tips to incorporate them into your trading workflow.

          Why Use Keyboard Shortcuts in MetaTrader?

          Keyboard shortcuts provide several advantages:
          Speed: Execute trades and navigate quickly without relying on a mouse.
          Accuracy: Minimize errors by automating repetitive actions.
          Focus: Keep your attention on the charts instead of searching for buttons or menus.Whether you're a scalper or a long-term trader, mastering these shortcuts will help you stay ahead in volatile markets.

          Essential MetaTrader Keyboard Shortcuts

          Chart Navigation and Display

          F8: Open the chart properties menu to customize colors and settings.
          Ctrl + G: Toggle the grid on or off for better visual clarity.
          Ctrl + Y: Display or hide period separators to mark trading sessions.
          - (Minus Key): Zoom out the chart for a broader view.
          + (Plus Key): Zoom in for more detailed analysis.
          Page Up: Scroll the chart to the left for historical data.
          Page Down: Scroll the chart to the right to return to the present.
          Tip: Adjusting the chart's zoom and layout quickly helps adapt to different analysis styles, such as scalping or swing trading.

          Order Placement and Management

          F9: Open the order window for instant trade placement.
          Ctrl + E: Enable or disable Expert Advisors (EAs).
          Ctrl + F: Activate the crosshair tool for precise point-to-point measurements.
          Alt + W: Open the list of open charts to switch between assets.
          Ctrl + T: Display or hide the terminal window for monitoring trades and account details.
          Pro Tip: Use the crosshair tool to measure the distance (in pips) between key levels before placing orders.

          Timeframe Adjustments

          Alt + 1: Switch to bar chart view for simplicity.
          Alt + 2: Switch to candlestick chart view, the most popular among traders.
          Alt + 3: Switch to line chart view for trend analysis.
          Ctrl + F5: Cycle through multiple timeframes on the same chart.
          Tip: Quickly toggling timeframes helps analyze trends from a macro and micro perspective.

          Object and Indicator Management

          Delete: Remove selected objects (e.g., trendlines or Fibonacci retracements).
          Ctrl + B: Open the list of objects on the chart for quick edits.
          Ctrl + I: Open the list of applied indicators for customization or removal.
          Pro Tip: Regularly clean up unused objects and indicators to keep your charts clutter-free.

          Miscellaneous Shortcuts

          F11: Activate full-screen mode for an immersive analysis experience.
          Ctrl + N: Open or hide the Navigator panel for quick access to accounts, indicators, and scripts.
          Ctrl + O: Open the options menu for platform settings, including server configuration and trade preferences.
          Tip: Use full-screen mode during major news events to focus entirely on price action and avoid distractions.

          How to Practice and Master These Shortcuts

          Start Small: Focus on a few shortcuts at a time and incorporate them into your daily trading routine.
          Use Cheat Sheets: Print a list of the shortcuts and keep it handy until they become second nature.
          Combine Shortcuts: Use combinations for repetitive tasks, like toggling the terminal window and placing orders.
          Customize Your Workflow: MetaTrader allows some level of customization; arrange your workspace to complement your favorite shortcuts.

          Conclusion

          Keyboard shortcuts are more than just time-savers; they are essential tools for increasing efficiency and maintaining focus in your trading. By mastering these MetaTrader 4 and 5 shortcuts, you can reduce friction, execute trades faster, and analyze charts with ease. Start practicing these shortcuts today, and watch your trading workflow become smoother and more productive.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Australian Dollar Struggles, Bonds Trim Gains as Jobs Report Looms

          Kevin Du

          Central Bank

          The Aussie was struggling at $0.6375, having tumbled 1% overnight to hit a fresh four-month low of $0.6363. Support is shaky at $0.6347, while resistance lies at a key chart level of 65 cents.
          The kiwi dollar was flat at $0.5799, after diving 1.1% overnight to hit a one-year trough of $0.5789. Support is not far at 0.5771, and a break of that level would see it testing lows not seen since November 2022.
          The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, but softened its hawkish stance by dropping a previous reference for policy needing to stay restrictive.
          Swaps now imply a 63% chance of a quarter-point cut at the next RBA meeting in February while fully pricing in two rate cuts by May next year.
          “For AUD-USD, fundamental headwinds remain clear going into 2025,” said Lenny Jin, Global FX Strategist at HSBC. “We expect any rebound in AUD-USD this month to fade in early 2025.”
          “More forceful fiscal policy support from China could help, but…structurally, China’s importance to the AUD may be declining, given limited spillover effect through the commodity demand channel.”

          Australian dollar dives as RBA takes a dovish turn

          With the RBA now watching data for clues on when it might begin the easing-cycle, the employment report due on Thursday is taking on more significance than usual. Forecasts are centred on an increase of 25,000 in new jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to have ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
          The labour market has stayed surprisingly resilient, with the jobless rate budging little over the past six months. A surprisingly soft report could further increase the chance of a February rate cut.
          Before that, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is due to speak at 1800 local time (0700 GMT) on Wednesday about Australia and the global economy.
          Local bonds pared some of the gains from Tuesday. Three-year Australian government bond futures fell 3 ticks to 96.258, pulling away from a two-month top of 96.30 hit after the RBA’s decision.
          Ten-year bonds dropped 5 ticks to 95.80, also off from its two-month high of 95.85.

          Source: Reuters

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          How much, and when the RBA Will cut Interest Rates in 2025

          Saif

          Central Bank

          The Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) concluded its December 2024 meeting by maintaining its official cash rate (“OCR”) at 4.35%, marking the ninth consecutive meeting and the thirteenth consecutive month at this level. This was not the headline, however – this is exactly what the market expected.
          Despite the seemingly benign outcome, there were some massive moves in markets post-meeting, and equally large changes in the expectations surrounding the timing and magnitude of RBA interest rate cuts in 2025. A picture tells a thousand words, so let’s check out some of the moves the decision triggered across markets in charts:

          Exhibit 1: Massive plunge in key risk-free market yield benchmarks

          How much, and when the RBA Will cut Interest Rates in 2025_1
          The benchmark for short term Australian government bond yields, the 2-Year bond, fell by 12 basis points to 3.77%. Markets effectively delivered half a typical interest rate cut (i.e., 0.25%) immediately following the December Board meeting.

          Exhibit 2: Big drop in the Australian dollar

          How much, and when the RBA Will cut Interest Rates in 2025_2
          The Australian dollar fell 1%, reaching approximately 63.75 US cents, its lowest level in over a year. Currency values are all about relative risk-free returns across countries. If markets anticipate they will earn a lesser yield in Australia (because of increased official interest rate cuts) compared to the USA, they will sell down the Australian dollar in favour of the higher yielding US dollar.

          Exhibit 3: Dip and draw in the Implied Yield Curve

          How much, and when the RBA Will cut Interest Rates in 2025_3
          The ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve is a market proxy for the RBA’s OCR. The Yield Curve provides investors with a graphical representation of where the market is predicting the OCR will be down the track.
          I have overlaid the December 10 Yield curve (light blue bars) over the December 9 curve (dark blue bars) to illustrate the change in market expectations for the timing and magnitude of RBA interest rate cuts both before and after the December Board meeting. I’ve also drawn on the schedule levels equating to the next 1.0% of 0.25% cuts.
          Generally, the market has lowered its expected level of the OCR through the 18 month look-forward period. Where the light blue bars touch an interest rate cut level tells you when the market has fully factored in the relevant cut.
          In terms of first cut timing, the curve has experienced the following notable changes:
          The next RBA meeting is 5-6 February, the chance of an interest rate cut at this meeting has increased from 28% to 34%
          March meeting cut probabilities increased from 60% to 72%
          There is no meeting in April, but this is when the market is factoring the first rate cut (interpret this as hedging their bets between the March and May meetings!) The interesting item here is that the probability of a larger, 0.5% cut, increased from just 6% to 28%.
          The second 0.25% rate cut has moved in from July to June.
          The third 0.25% rate cut has moved in from December to September.
          There was no fourth 0.25% rate cut in the Yield Curve’s look forward period ending May 2026, but there’s now a 98% probability it will occur in that month
          In summary, markets believe the first RBA interest rate cut is a lock by May next year, but the probability of a surprise March cut has increased. Mortgage holders are still likely to get three 0.25% cuts in 2025, but they are likely to occur three months earlier by September. There is now a fourth cut in the mix by May 2026.

          Why did markets react so vigorously to the December RBA meeting?

          Here are the key takeaways from the December meeting statement and post-meeting press conference by Governor Michelle Bullock that caused the market to pivot so substantially:
          Statement
          Expressed "gaining some confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards its target", this a departure from previous assertions about the necessity of maintaining restrictive policies.
          Omitted earlier references to being vigilant against upside risks to inflation and the commitment to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive until confident of inflation's trajectory.
          Added references to weakening Australian economic growth, "While underlying inflation is still high, other recent data on economic activity have been mixed, but on balance softer than expected in November", in particular citing the worse than expected September quarter GDP figures, noting it was "the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s".
          Added the statement: "Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP." – again, arguably dovish.
          Replaced "But there are uncertainties" with "Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and while the level of aggregate demand still appears to be above the economy’s supply capacity, that gap continues to close."
          Press conference
          “Some indicators softening in line with our forecasts, that said, on balance, some data is a little softer than expected. This has given the Board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining, but risks remain.”
          Which data? “The national accounts data weren’t as strong as expected, the Wages Price Index came a little bit lower than what we thought it might be, inflation data were broadly in-line. It’s not only slowing as we’d like, it’s slowing a little-bit more and that’s positive for inflationary pressures…it’s giving us confidence we’re coming on our narrow forecast path.”
          “Some of those risks to upside inflation have eased. We have noticed [the weaker data] and we do need to take a bit of a signal from that, but upside risks remain.”
          In summary, the RBA's December meeting maintained the current cash rate but signaled a marked shift towards a more accommodative stance. Markets are now anticipating potential rate cuts to occur sooner and to a greater magnitude in early 2025. The news is arguably positive for mortgage holders, and also likely, for stocks which also tend to benefit from lower official interest rates.
          If there is a group of losers out of the developments of the last 24-hours, it's likely to be those with cash in the bank. It might be time to think about locking in those higher deposit rates while you still can!

          Source: Carl Capolingua

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Ethereum Has Less Than 10% Chance of Tapping $5K by Year-End, Says Derive

          Warren Takunda
          Onchain options protocol Derive says data shows Ethereum has less than a 10% chance of hitting the much-anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024, despite significant inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hinting at a looming “supply-side crisis.”
          The probability that Ether will reach $5,000 by Dec. 27 “climbed to 16% at its peak but has recently adjusted down to just over 8%,” Derive head of research Sean Dawson said in a Dec. 10 markets report.Ethereum Has Less Than 10% Chance of Tapping $5K by Year-End, Says Derive_1

          Ether’s chances of reaching $5,000 by the end of the year have fallen by about 50%. Source: Derive.xyz

          ETH needs a 37% jump from its current price of $3,669 to reach $5,000, CoinMarketCap shows.
          Dawson added that “the trading of calls and puts for ETH is evenly distributed, suggesting a neutral market sentiment.”

          “TradFi is gobbling up cheap ETH” — trader

          Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba holds a different view, saying in a Dec. 10 X post that their “target for ETH is still $5k by the end of this year.”
          “Do what you will with that information,” they added.Ethereum Has Less Than 10% Chance of Tapping $5K by Year-End, Says Derive_2

          Ether was trading at $3,661 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

          Meanwhile, in an X post on the same day, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner pointed to the $305 million in Ether ETF daily inflows on Dec. 10 as a signal that a “supply side crisis” is coming.
          Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano added that “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH.”
          Of the $305 million in inflows, Fidelity Ethereum Fund accounted for $202.2 million, according to Farside data.

          Ether new all-time high call within the week

          This follows a Dec. 9 claim from Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams, who suggested that a new Ether all-time high “could happen” within the next week. Ether’s current all-time high is $4,878, reached in November 2021.
          Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi said in a Dec. 9 X post to his 830,900 followers that Ether “is having structural changes as well as the beginning of consistent and large ETF flows.”
          They highlighted that ETH had its “highest weekly close of the year” and echoed Adams’ sentiment, suggesting a retest of its all-time high could happen sooner than many traders anticipate.

          Source: Cointelegraph

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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