U.S. Retail Sales Data Publication Delayed Amid Government Shutdown

Economic

Summary:

Retail data delay due to U.S. government shutdown impacts economic forecasting.No direct cryptocurrency sector impact observed.Lack of data affects business planning capabilities.

The U.S. Census Bureau postponed the release of retail sales data, attributed to a government shutdown, affecting economic assessments nationwide.

The delay complicates economic planning for businesses but doesn't directly impact the cryptocurrency market, reflecting its reliance on traditional economic data.

U.S. Census Bureau's Retail Sales Data Release Impact

The U.S. Census Bureau has delayed the release of retail sales data due to a government shutdown. Historically, such delays have occurred during previous shutdowns, affecting economic visibility and planning for businesses relying on accurate forecasts for financial strategies.

The U.S. government and the Census Bureau are involved in this situation. Key economic figures have emphasized reliance on alternative data sources, like business contacts, for economic insights. The Federal Reserve noted challenges posed by data unavailability. As Christopher J. Waller, Governor, Federal Reserve stated, "The absence of timely retail sales data makes it challenging to gauge the economy's health, forcing reliance on other indicators and business contacts for insights."

The delay primarily impacts industries and businesses that depend on retail data for future planning. This results in potential financial strategy shifts, as companies struggle without government-released statistics to ascertain market conditions and consumer behavior.

While cryptocurrency markets remain unaffected directly, the broader economic uncertainty can influence investor sentiment and market trends. The lack of concrete data hinders effective economic forecasting, creating political and business implications for future policies and decisions.

Businesses lacking crucial retail sales data may adjust financial strategies, seeking insights from non-governmental sources. The prohibition affects sector stability, increasing reliance on private data analysis, leading to varied predictions and uncertain economic planning.

Historical trends suggest that such delays complicate businesses' predictive capabilities and investments. Evaluating past shutdown effects, potential regulatory adjustments, and technological solutions to counter data reliance are critical outcomes for economic resilience.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures slipped to near $57 per barrel, marking a five-month low and a third straight weekly decline as geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics weighed on market sentiment. Traders are monitoring potential policy developments that could alter global supply, particularly amid speculation of eased output restrictions.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, according to the EIA, signaling softer consumption and amplifying fears of a growing surplus. Mixed demand signals from major importers further deepened uncertainty.

Together, these factors highlight the fragile balance between geopolitical risk and oversupply in the global oil and gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas continues to face selling pressure, trading near $2.90 after breaking below the key $3.06 support. The daily chart shows a clear downtrend, with prices moving beneath both the 50-EMA ($3.30) and 200-EMA ($3.80), signaling persistent bearish momentum.

The RSI sits around 33, hovering near oversold territory, suggesting sellers may soon lose strength. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $2.93 is acting as near-term support, while further weakness could expose $2.83 and $2.76 — the 1.618 Fib target.

If buyers manage to defend $2.90, a corrective bounce toward $3.06 or $3.16 is possible. However, a daily close below $2.90 would confirm continuation of the broader downtrend toward the $2.70 zone.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) remains under pressure, trading near $56.60 after failing to break above $57.70 resistance. The 4-hour chart shows a clear descending channel, with prices forming lower highs and lower lows — a sign that sellers still dominate. The 50-EMA ($59.52) and 200-EMA ($61.93) slope downward, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Momentum remains weak, as the RSI hovers near 34, suggesting limited buying interest and room for further downside. A sustained move below $55.90 could accelerate losses toward $54.80 and $54.20.

Conversely, a short-term rebound above $57.70 could trigger a mild correction toward $59.10 before sellers likely regain control. The broader bias remains bearish unless oil breaks decisively above $60.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading near $60.60, holding below the key resistance zone at $61.80. The 4-hour chart shows the price respecting a descending trendline, with both the 50-EMA ($63.33) and 200-EMA ($65.64) trending lower — confirming persistent selling pressure.

The RSI remains subdued near 34, showing weak momentum and potential for another downward move. If prices stay below $61.80, the next downside targets lie around $60.20 and $59.35, followed by $58.40. A brief consolidation near the current level is possible before bears attempt another push lower.

Only a sustained breakout above $63.00 would signal early recovery potential, while continued rejection below $61.80 keeps Brent vulnerable to further declines in the short term.

Source: fxempire

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Forex

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

This after the Trump administration slammed the "global power grab" efforts by China as it seeks to have a "chokehold on the world of rare earth and rare earth materials."

Germany’s finance minister has as a result signaled that a coordinated response from the bloc is likely coming, and Australia’s Prime Minister is expected to hammer out an agreement on critical mineral supply chains during an upcoming trip to Washington. China's 'retaliation' is fast alienating those Beijing thought it could rally to its corner after Trump first unveiled steep tariffs, marking a sharp reversal from the global mood of six months ago.

Bloomberg has referenced the following to illustrate this reversal as follows: "Whether a miscalculation by Beijing — or an opportunistic bid by a superpower eager to police critical supply chains — the showdown taking shape marks a setback for Chinese efforts to build relationships on the world stage. Only weeks earlier, Xi’s show of bonhomie with India’s Narendra Modi sent a message that China could be an alternative partner for nations roiled by Trump’s upending of US foreign policy."

According to the latest Chinese response Thursday, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao has blamed a series of "restrictive measures" by the US after the Madrid trade talks. He made the comments while meeting with and trying to woo Apple CEO Tim Cook into deepened cooperation and increased investment with China.

Simultaneously, Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian told a press conference: "The U.S.' interpretation seriously distorts and exaggerates China's (rare earths export control) measures, deliberately stirring up unnecessary misunderstanding and panic." A further summary of Beijing's latest response:

● The US approach to this situation is vastly distorting reality.

● The US is holding China to standards that they wouldn’t hold themselves to.

● Decoupling from the US is not a realistic or rational option.

The day prior, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer issued a firm US stance, saying, "To paraphrase the secretary in one of our recent meetings with the Chinese, this is the last time we want to be talking about rare earths with the Chinese."Greer continued to Fox Business, "Unfortunately, that is not the last time they want to be talking about it. The reality is, there are a lot of areas where we can trade with the Chinese. Our trade is wildly imbalanced. So it needs to be more balanced. And there is a lot of, as the secretary said, areas of risk."

China's new rare earths rules, set to take effect later this year, were an obvious shock to foreign governments and companies which now may have to acquire licenses from Beijing which can be denied, even if trading products containing Chinese-sourced materials outside of China.This is seen also as big shot across the bow to the US defense industry in particular, sending the Pentagon on a new buying spree, as we reported, and sending rare earths stocks vertical this week.

And a Chinese state media take on the back-and-forth accusations...

Analyst and critical minerals expert Gracelin Baskaran of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told CNBC earlier in the week that "What this essentially means is that it will deny licenses to foreign militaries and companies that are producing military use end goods."

Source: Zero Hedge

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

The dollar fell for a fourth day, putting it on track for its biggest weekly drop in more than two months, amid dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and fresh worries over US regional banks.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its weekly decline to 0.5%, its worst run since July, while Treasury two-year yields fell to a three-year low. Traders boosted bets on Fed easing, and are now pricing 53 basis points of cuts by year-end versus 46 on Wednesday.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that officials can keep lowering interest rates in quarter-percentage-point increments to support a faltering labor market. Governor Stephen Miran, meanwhile, reiterated his view that a move twice that size would be appropriate this month.

Even with the US government shutdown in its third week with little sign of resolution and a dearth of economic data, the Fed commentary spurred investors to add dovish exposure.

“The lack of economic data does not seem to be a problem for the Fed and we expect another 25-basis-point rate reduction at the October meeting,” Morgan Stanley economists led by Michael Gapen said in a note.

The dollar also softened as shares of regional lenders slumped on lending-standards concerns, and as political risks in Japan and France eased. Multiple factors are hitting the dollar at once, making it hard to pick a bottom in selloff, according to ING Bank NV analysts Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole.

“A sudden surge in scrutiny of US regional banks is hitting equities and the dollar, which, incidentally, faces the negative drag of a dovish Fed repricing, some hopes for a Ukraine truce, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions,” they wrote in a note.

Banks’ Trio of Alleged Frauds Sparks Fear of Broader Issues (1)

Hedge funds that have bought the dollar versus the yen and the euro earlier this month have been stopped out, while institutional investors are largely sidelined, according to traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.

In options, near-term sentiment has turned more bearish over the next week, even as positioning still leans toward a stronger dollar into year-end.

The greenback has retraced roughly a third of its rebound from last month’s three-year low. Europe-based traders say conviction remains thin, with investors keeping positions short-dated and trading one headline at a time. This is shown through both the spot and options markets as the major currencies are gravitating back toward recent averages.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

American's views on the economy turned more negative in the third quarter with deepening concerns about jobs, inflation and the outlook, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

Together with blame for the shutdown aimed at the president and congressional Republicans, those views dragged down President Donald Trump's net approval rating on the economy to 42% approving and 55% disapproving.

The -13 net approval on the economy is the lowest of any CNBC survey during either of Trump's two terms.

The president's overall approval rating dropped to 44% from 46% while disapproval rose 1 percentage point to 52%. The results continued a second-term trend with his economic approval running below his overall approval rating.

In his first term, the president's economic numbers were routinely positive and well above his overall polling.

The survey of 1,000 people nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.1%, found 53% of respondents blaming the potential economic fallout from the shutdown on Republicans in Congress and the president, compared to 37% for Democrats.

But the survey also shows increasingly negative attitudes about the president's handling of critical economic issues.

Just 34% of the public approve of his policies on inflation and the cost of living, with 62% disapproving. Those are the worst numbers of the three CNBC surveys during the president's second term, an important finding for a president who promised to reduce prices. And 56% disapprove of his tariff policies, with 41% approving, a net approval of -15 compared with -6 in the second quarter survey.

"It is clear that the cost of living in Americans' own personal lives is much more likely to be weighing them down about their economic confidence than the shutdown," said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey.

Split by parties

The survey, in which 40% of respondents were Republican and 38% Democrat, shows Trump maintains overwhelming support from his party and faces equal opposition by Democrats. The key to the results is that independents lean substantially negative on the president and his handling of key issues.

"Most of the movement that's happening now is among independents, and that's important because we know … that independents are highly economically sensitive," said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey. "They're less sensitive on partisan issues and they're much more sensitive on financial and economic measures."

The only positive issue among those surveyed is Trump's handling of the southern border, which is +5. His handling of deportations moved from a 49-49 split to 46%-50% net disapproval. The president did have a slight improvement in views of his handling of foreign policy.

The survey was conducted Oct. 8-12, just after the announcement of an Israeli-Hamas peace deal. Still, the public is negative on his handling of the conflict by 41% to 50%.

The troubles for the president go beyond just the issues.

Views on the economy grew more negative, with 27% saying the economy is good or excellent and 72% describing it as just fair or poor, reversing an improvement in the second quarter after the president dialed back his most extreme tariff threats.

Just 32% of the public sees the economy improving next year, the lowest level since March 2024, while 46% believe it will get worse, unchanged from the prior survey.

Job worries grow

More than a quarter of Americans are concerned that they could lose their job in the next year, the highest level since CNBC first asked the question in 2022. But in a sign of confidence, 58% feel secure enough that they can find a new job with similar pay and benefits if they lose their current position.

Younger Americans, people of color and women are among the groups least confident in their job prospects. But college grads and salaried employees are also expressing elevated uncertainty relative to the average. Less than a third of working Americans believe their salaries will rise in the next year, the lowest since the pandemic while three-quarters see prices rising.

Half of the public say prices are continuing to go up "faster than usual."

A 56% majority, including large numbers of Democrats and independents and 45% of Republicans, says it's inappropriate for the government to be taking stakes in private companies.

A plurality of 43%, however, say Trump's policies when it comes to business are "about right," with 39% saying he's too biased in favor of business and 12% saying he's too biased against business.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has had a rocky first half of October so far.

The world's largest cryptocurrency surged to start the month as investors sought a hedge against US government shutdown uncertainty. Last Friday, it plunged from $121,000 to as low as $104,000 following President Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Bitcoin's descent was particularly notable against the backdrop of gold (GC=F), which has climbed to new all-time highs past $4,300 and is up 18% in the past month. Bitcoin, by comparison, has yet to recover from Friday's losses and is down over 9% against the dollar in that period.

"Right now, capital is clearly favoring gold due to its momentum and reduced volatility profile," Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, told Yahoo Finance. "There are also structural buyers in central banks, which provides a quasi-backstop to the trade."

He noted that investors are likely to eventually rotate into bitcoin from gold since the precious metal tends to front-run crypto.

On Friday morning, bitcoin was trading around $105,000 per token. Wall Street veteran strategist Ed Yardeni explained its precipitous drop last week in a note on Wednesday.

"The crypto derivatives ecosystem exacerbated bitcoin's recent fall," Yardeni wrote. "During the abrupt drop, liquidity dried up, with over $19 billion in liquidations across crypto futures and leveraged positions."

When prices dropped rapidly, platforms automatically closed risky trades to prevent bigger losses, he said.

Traders also noticed a "whale" who pocketed $192 million shorting bitcoin ahead of the sudden crash, a move that could have exacerbated the selling. That same wallet placed another bearish bet late Sunday.

Crypto bulls entered October with expectations of a strong month, as the token has risen in 10 of the past 12 years, according to Compass Point Research.

The cryptocurrency hit all-time highs north of $126,000 per token last week, along with precious metals that also hit records, in what Wall Street has dubbed the "debasement trade," or a hedge against weakening fiat currencies.

Crypto analysts predict bitcoin will close out the year higher, with JPMorgan forecasting a price target of $165,000. Meanwhile, Citi sees the token reaching $133,000 during the same time period and $181,000 by the end of 2026.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Dark Current

Technical Analysis

WTI Oil price fell further on Friday, remaining on track for the third consecutive weekly loss and the second straight weekly close below $60 mark.

Oil remains under pressure from darkened demand outlook, with the latest forecast from International Energy Agency about growing supply surplus, news about potential meeting between US and Russian Presidents, and growing US-China trade tensions, contributing to current picture.

Oil price fell to the lowest in five months and eyes key supports at $55.40/12 (2025 lows posted in Apr/May) which also formed a double bottom, ahead of subsequent strong rally.

Daily studies are in full bearish setup, but oversold conditions,14-d momentum indicator turning north from the depth of negative territory and anticipated profit taking at the end of the week, suggest that we may see some consolidation or limited correction.

Broken $60 level reverted to initial resistance (reinforced by falling 10DMA), followed by broken Fibo 76.4% ($60.71) and $61.50 zone (former range floor and higher base, reinforced by 20DMA), where stronger upticks should be capped to keep larger bears in play.

Res: 58.37; 59.74; 60.00; 60.71.
Sup: 56.58; 55.40; 55.12; 53.87.