UK’s Reeves Raises Tax Burden to Post-war High to Shore Up Finances

Forex

Economic

Summary:

British finance minister Rachel Reeves announced a big tax-raising budget on Wednesday that will take more money from workers, people saving for a pension and investors to give herself greater room to meet her deficit-reduction targets.

Britain's fiscal watchdog cut its forecasts for economic growth for the coming years - a setback for struggling Prime Minister Keir Starmer who promised voters last year he would speed up the economy.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the government will now have more than double its previous buffer for meeting its fiscal targets, something closely watched by investors assessing Britain's borrowing risks.

The OBR - in forecasts published in error before Reeves began her annual tax and spending speech to parliament, and first reported by Reuters - said the tax hikes would amount to an annual 26.1 billion pounds ($34.5 billion).

That will push Britain's tax-to-GDP ratio to 38.3% of economic output, a fresh post-war high, although this will still be lower than the euro zone's average of 41% last year.

Last year, Reeves ordered 40 billion pounds of tax hikes - the biggest since the 1990s - and she promised at the time that they would be a one-off.

"No doubt, we will face opposition again. But I have yet to see a credible, or a fairer alternative plan for working people," Reeves said.

GROWTH FORECASTS CUT

The removal of a two-child limit on welfare payments to poor families is opposed by most Britons, according to opinion polls but the announcement earned cheers from Labour Party lawmakers.

Although the next national election is not due until 2029, the authority of Reeves and Starmer has been questioned within their centre-left party.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank highlighted how the budget included an increase in spending in the short term while much of the push to raise taxes would hit later on.

"The future restraint, just before the next election? One could be forgiven for treating that with a healthy dose of scepticism," IFS director Helen Miller said.

The OBR cut its forecasts for economic growth which it now saw averaging 1.5% over the five-year forecast period, 0.3 percentage points slower than it expected in March.

The downgrade was linked to lower productivity growth which the OBR said reflected past underperformance due to headwinds including Brexit.

Reeves vowed to prove the watchdog wrong. "We beat the forecasts this year and we will beat them again," she said.

But the OBR's verdict on the budget and the outlook saw British living standards barely growing in the coming years, hurt in part by the higher taxes.

BORROWING COSTS FALL

British 30-year government bond yields - which are sensitive to borrowing concerns - fell sharply by almost 12 basis points on the day, their biggest one-day drop since April, suggesting investors were largely comfortable with the budget plan.

Sterling rose against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

The OBR said the headroom - the amount of extra spending or tax cuts possible for the government while meeting its budget rules - stood at almost 21.7 billion pounds in four years' time.

In March, the OBR forecast headroom of just 9.9 billion pounds which was eaten up by the weaker economic outlook, higher-than-expected borrowing costs and a U-turn in July on welfare reform.

Deloitte Chief Economist Ian Stewart said the OBR's assumption of faster wage growth - and higher tax receipts - had rescued Reeves.

"However, today's announcements will likely have a longer-term impact on growth, as the chancellor is raising an extra 26 billion pounds a year in tax," Stewart said.

The OBR said a three-year extension of a freeze on income tax thresholds - first introduced by the previous Conservative government - would raise an extra 8.0 billion pounds in the 2029/30 financial year.

The generosity of pension incentives was scaled back with social security charges on salary-sacrifice pension contributions raising almost 5 billion pounds.

Increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income would raise 2.1 billion pounds, the OBR said, while a so-called "mansion tax" on homes worth more than 2 million pounds was expected to raise 0.4 billion in 2029/30.

Reeves maintained a freeze on the rate of fuel duty but she introduced a new mileage-based charge on electric cars.

Despite the increases, David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, which manages $1.5 trillion in assets, said he expected Reeves would have to raise taxes again next year.

"It's a missed opportunity, and she's just chosen to kick the can down the road," he said

SPENDING UP, GROWTH DOWN

Public spending was due to grow every year as a result of the measures in the budget - reaching an extra 11 billion pounds in 2029/30 - primarily to pay for the welfare measures.

A think tank that focuses on poverty reduction welcomed the removal of the two-child cap, along with actions to lower energy bills and an increase in the minimum wage announced on Tuesday.

"But there is more to do," Alfie Stirling, insight and policy director at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation said. "Housing costs and bills are still too high, our safety nets are too frail, and the cost to workers of caring for their loved ones is too great."

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

Tech Surge and Rate Cut Bets Fuel Holiday Momentum

Thanksgiving cheer arrived early for Wall Street as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite each posted their fourth consecutive session of gains. Oracle climbed roughly 4% following a Deutsche Bank note citing its recent pullback as a buying opportunity, and its advance helped lift other tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. This rally, driven by investor optimism and favorable earnings, bolstered confidence heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Historically, U.S. markets tend to perform well during Thanksgiving week, and 2025 is proving no different. Eric Diton of The Wealth Alliance noted that sentiment is upbeat, though he cautioned that post-holiday volatility may arise if market expectations on policy are not met.

Rate Cut Hopes Driving Market Sentiment

The dominant narrative underpinning the rally is the growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Futures markets now assign an 85% probability to a 25-basis-point cut. Analysts suggest that if this expectation is not fulfilled, a market correction may follow but some, like Diton, believe the Fed is unlikely to disappoint.

Looking further ahead, looser monetary policy could shape equity valuations through 2026. Strategists at CFRA and JPMorgan have floated bullish end-of-2026 targets for the S&P 500 at 7,400 and even 8,000, respectively. These projections reflect long-term confidence in continued earnings expansion and stable policy support.

Apple Set to Surpass Samsung in Smartphone Shipments

On the corporate front, Apple is projected to ship around 243 million iPhones in 2025, eclipsing Samsung’s 235 million units, according to Counterpoint Research. If realized, it would mark the first time in 14 years that Apple outpaces Samsung in annual smartphone volume highlighting the strength of Apple’s premium brand positioning and growing demand in emerging markets.

Across the Pacific, China reported a 5.5% year-over-year drop in industrial profits for October the steepest decline since June. The weak data points to slowing momentum in China’s manufacturing sector, weighed down by escalating trade tensions with the U.S. The earnings slump also reinforces the fragility of China’s recovery, casting doubt on near-term industrial demand.

AI’s Economic Disruption and Labor Impact Highlighted

A new MIT study estimates that AI could eventually replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce roughly $1.2 trillion in wages. The most exposed sectors include finance, healthcare, and professional services. Using simulations based on a dataset of 151 million workers, the study underscores the scale of upcoming labor disruptions and the urgency for retraining and policy planning.

Bitcoin continued its decline, dropping over 20% in November. Compass Point analysts expect the bearish trend to persist through year-end, citing liquidity constraints and fading speculative momentum. The cryptocurrency’s downturn highlights growing investor skepticism despite institutional interest in AI and digital assets elsewhere.

Thanksgiving week has delivered a strong performance for U.S. equities, with enthusiasm buoyed by tech gains and dovish Fed projections. But the post-holiday market could hinge on whether the Federal Reserve follows through with a widely anticipated rate cut. In the meantime, investors remain thankful for resilient corporate earnings, favorable economic forecasts, and the momentum heading into year-end.

Source: CNBC

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Deliberate Design: Europe Turns Obstacles into Opportunity

Often seen as trailing the U.S. and China in the AI race, Europe is carving out a different kind of edge one rooted in caution, scarcity, and sustainability. While the U.S. dominates hyperscale AI data center construction and foundational model training, European markets are drawing investor interest for a slower, more strategic build-out of data centers focused on AI inference and cloud computing.

According to McKinsey, global data center capacity could double or triple by 2030, requiring up to $7 trillion in investment. While the U.S. will lead this expansion, Europe is expected to double its capacity at a “meaningful pace,” provided it can resolve key infrastructure bottlenecks.

Power Access Defines Winners and Losers

The biggest chokepoint for Europe is electricity. Grid congestion and high energy costs have created stark regional differences. Northern and Southern European countries with abundant renewable energy such as Sweden, Norway, and Spain are becoming attractive locations for data center development. Italy, with relatively short connection times, is also gaining momentum.

In contrast, Germany, the U.K., Ireland, and the Netherlands are constrained by limited grid capacity or moratoriums on new connections, making them less viable for near-term investments. The discrepancy in power availability has reshaped the flow of capital away from the traditional FLAP-D markets (Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin), toward less saturated locations with greater energy resilience.

A Tightly Regulated Ecosystem Spurs Innovation

Unlike the U.S., where deregulation has enabled rapid build-outs, Europe’s strict approval processes and transparency requirements around energy, water usage, and community impact are forcing a more thoughtful approach. In countries like Spain, developers must now also quantify the socio-economic impact of proposed data centers an unheard-of requirement in the U.S. This creates higher upfront friction, but could ultimately foster better integration with local communities and sustainable infrastructure use.

Moreover, reforms are being introduced to improve the process. The U.K., for example, is shifting from a first-come-first-served grid connection policy to a “first ready, first connected” model, which prioritizes shovel-ready projects over speculative applications. These changes aim to discourage queue-hogging and accelerate critical developments.

Inference, Not Training, Is Europe’s AI Sweet Spot

Europe is unlikely to catch up with the U.S. in training foundational AI models, as the continent has relatively few such companies France’s Mistral being a rare example. Instead, it is positioning itself as a leader in AI inference the phase of AI deployment where trained models perform real-time processing.

Inference demands high-density compute infrastructure, upgraded cooling systems, and fast connectivity all of which align well with existing cloud facilities. McKinsey forecasts that 70% of future AI workloads will be inference-based. European developers and fund managers see this as a compelling niche. Inference infrastructure is also more likely to be kept within national borders due to regulatory pushes for sovereign AI, especially with GDPR and other data localization policies gaining traction.

Sovereign AI and Capital Discipline Shape Long-Term Outlook

Investment strategies in Europe are shifting accordingly. Data center operators are now locking in 10–15-year contracts before construction begins, minimizing speculative builds and reducing the risk of stranded assets should AI growth moderate or change direction. The exception lies with newer “neo-cloud” providers, whose shorter contracts and unproven models carry higher risk but even here, debt financiers are becoming more comfortable, suggesting growing confidence in AI-related infrastructure.

Europe’s energy-conscious and capital-disciplined ecosystem may provide more resilient long-term returns. Sites repurposed from deindustrialized zones where infrastructure is already in place offer another path forward, reducing both development costs and environmental impact.

Scarcity Becomes Strategy in Europe’s AI Future

Europe’s AI infrastructure trajectory is shaped not by speed but by sustainability, precision, and resilience. By embracing its constraints energy bottlenecks, tight regulation, and market fragmentation the region is developing high-quality, future-proofed data centers optimized for inference rather than training.

This considered pace may insulate European markets from the risk of overbuilds and speculative bubbles now looming over faster-growing regions. And as sovereign AI policies gain momentum, Europe’s localized, modular data infrastructure could become not only viable but vital in a world where digital independence is becoming just as critical as innovation.

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Alice Winters

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Economic

Chinese automotive suppliers are inundating Germany with low-cost components, piling pressure on local manufacturers already grappling with muted demand and elevated costs, according to labor officials.

The influx of electrical systems and forged metal parts is hitting companies including Robert Bosch GmbH, Mahle GmbH and PWO AG. The imbalance threatens local production, with China's industrial upgrades narrowing quality gaps that used to protect German firms.

Chinese car parts are "pouring into the German market at incredible speed," said Andreas Bohnert, who chairs the works council at PWO, which makes steering columns and other precision-metal parts. "The pace at which these products are arriving — and, one has to admit, at a relatively good level of quality — shows that the Chinese have really done their homework."

The squeeze on Germany's supplier base is part of a Chinese expansion that's rattling the country's industrial core. China, once a driver of sales and profit for German automakers, is increasingly becoming an equally capable rival. Imports of Chinese vehicles and components to Germany have surged since the pandemic, and the likes of BYD Co. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. are dominating on EVs and the batteries needed to run them.

The shift is reverberating through the supplier landscape. Company officials said the accelerating flow of low-cost Chinese inputs is squeezing margins, eroding order volumes and testing the resilience of a supply chain already strained by the transition to EVs and a protracted downturn in European car production. Several companies have started to cut output and jobs.

Fresh data has reinforced the concerns. An analysis from the Cologne-based German Economic Institute last week identified sharp increases in Chinese imports across several component categories, including a near tripling of gearbox parts for combustion-engine vehicles.

A survey released Thursday by European supplier association CLEPA found that nearly 70% of European parts makers now face direct competition from Chinese imports — a 12-percentage-point jump over the previous study from late March. The pressure is taking a toll, the group said, with a majority of suppliers expecting profitability to fall below the 5% minimum needed to sustain investment.

"Without decisive measures, parts manufacturing in Europe risks disappearing, as companies are forced to relocate or shut down, jeopardizing employment and expertise," said Benjamin Krieger, CLEPA's secretary general.

Some firms are already feeling the squeeze. At Mahle, general works council chairman Boris Schwürz said Chinese rivals are moving into product areas long dominated by German manufacturers. Some offers reaching automakers arrive at "prices that in certain cases are clearly below manufacturing cost," he said, adding that Volkswagen AG, BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG are buying the Chinese parts.

Suppliers from the Asian country are now offering equivalent products "20% to 30% cheaper," according to Bosch labor representative Frank Sell. Europe may need to reconsider whether foreign manufacturers should be required to carry out part of their production within the region, he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Michelle Reid

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Economic

A World Bank economist said on Thursday that Malaysia should reduce tariffs for all trading partners, not just major ones like the US, because selective cuts can distort trade and reduce overall welfare.

Chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific Apurva Sanghi said non-discriminatory tariff cuts would make Malaysia's economy more open and efficient.

"Tariff cuts are good, but if you are going to cut them, you need to cut them in a non-discriminatory fashion," he said at the National Economic Outlook Conference 2025 organised by Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER). He added that preferential tariffs often benefit less efficient foreign producers, while hurting the country's overall welfare.

Sanghi made the remarks during a presentation on global economic challenges, warning that slowing growth, weak investment, and rising debt make trade openness especially important for middle-income countries.

He noted that Malaysia signed a Reciprocal Trade Agreement (ART) with the US in October, its third-largest trading partner, creating a delicate balance with its biggest trading partner, China. The deal has raised concerns that Malaysia might be forced to align with US sanctions, potentially affecting its neutral stance in the US-China rivalry.

To illustrate the economic impact of selective tariffs, Sanghi presented a simple model: Malaysia imports only BYD from China and Tesla from the US, with no domestic cars. Prices before tariffs are US$20,000 for BYD and US$30,000 for Tesla, with a 100% tariff.

With tariffs, BYD costs US$40,000, and Malaysia imports 50 units, generating US$1 million in government revenue.

If tariffs are removed only for Tesla, it drops to US$30,000, and consumers switch to Tesla, saving money, but the government loses US$1 million, creating a net welfare loss.

If tariffs are removed for all cars, BYD drops to US$20,000, generating US$1 million in consumer savings, offsetting the loss of revenue.

"The net outcome is zero, which is better than the negative outcome under unilateral preferential treatment," Sanghi said. He emphasised that the example was about economic logic, not fairness or geopolitics. "Preferential treatment leads to both trade creation and trade diversion," he noted. "But when it is extended to a less efficient country, the negative impact of diversion outweighs the positive effect of trade creation."

Earlier, Sanghi warned that the world economy faces slowing growth, stalling investment, and rising debt, with investment in low- and middle-income countries at its slowest in 30 years, and global policy uncertainty at record highs.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Corporate Giants Mobilize Rapidly in Response to Deadly Blaze

In the aftermath of the devastating high-rise fire in Hong Kong’s Tai Po district, a wave of donations has poured in from China’s most powerful private-sector players. Alibaba Group and Ant Group jointly committed HK$30 million, with Alibaba founder Jack Ma separately pledging the same amount through his foundation. Other major contributors included Anta Group (HK$30 million), Tencent, Xiaomi, ByteDance, and NetEase, each pledging HK$10 million. The China Red Cross, along with automakers like BYD, Xpeng, and Geely, also offered support.

This surge in corporate giving reflects both public pressure and the broader political climate. President Xi Jinping swiftly called for "all-out efforts" to reduce casualties and emphasized the importance of coordinated relief. In a political context increasingly focused on social accountability, these donations not only aid victims but signal alignment with Beijing’s expectations for socially responsible capitalism.

Human Toll and Accountability in Focus

The blaze, which erupted in Wang Fuk Court a dense eight-tower public housing estate sheltering over 4,600 residents has left at least 55 confirmed dead, with hundreds still missing. The scale and intensity of the disaster mark it as Hong Kong’s worst since the 1948 Shek Kip Mei fire. Firefighters struggled for nearly 24 hours to contain the blaze across seven blocks, ultimately stabilizing four towers while others continued to burn into Thursday morning.

Preliminary investigations suggest the fire began on bamboo scaffolding, commonly used in Hong Kong construction, before spreading rapidly through wooden poles and protective netting. Authorities have arrested three individuals from the construction company responsible for the site, citing "gross negligence" and the use of flammable foam and plastic materials that likely failed to meet fire safety codes. They are now being investigated for manslaughter.

This tragedy has brought Hong Kong’s construction and safety practices into sharp relief, particularly regarding outdated materials and oversight lapses in densely populated areas.

Scrutiny Over Housing Safety and Regulatory Oversight

The fire has ignited public criticism over building safety, particularly in public housing, where cost-saving practices often intersect with vulnerable populations. Officials face growing pressure to reevaluate not only the materials used in scaffolding and protective construction but also the regulatory framework overseeing such developments.

The alleged use of substandard materials raises the question of whether current enforcement is adequate or if systemic weaknesses in inspection and compliance played a role. The public housing sector, already burdened by aging infrastructure and rising occupancy pressures, may now face a broader reckoning.

Philanthropy Amid Political Realignment

The scale of private-sector pledges reflects a deeper trend within China: the realignment of elite entrepreneurs with national policy directives. Figures like Lei Jun (Xiaomi), Zhang Yiming (ByteDance), and Wang Xing (Meituan) have in recent years launched philanthropic foundations or contributed billions to social causes, particularly in education, science, and welfare.

While these acts are humanitarian in nature, they also serve a strategic function in China’s tightening regulatory environment. By echoing Xi Jinping’s vision of “common prosperity,” these firms are reinforcing their social license to operate and potentially shielding themselves from further scrutiny.

A National Tragedy and Turning Point

As the death toll rises and investigations continue, Hong Kong's fire disaster has exposed systemic gaps in urban construction practices and forced renewed focus on regulatory integrity. Meanwhile, the private sector’s rapid philanthropic response demonstrates a complex interplay between corporate citizenship, political alignment, and public expectation.

This tragedy may serve as a turning point in both Hong Kong’s urban safety strategy and the broader redefinition of corporate responsibility across Greater China, as national leaders demand that profit be increasingly paired with purpose.

Source: CNBC

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George Anderson

Economic

Stocks

European Stocks Stall After Global Rally

Following a strong pan-European performance the previous day where the Stoxx 600 gained nearly 1.1% Thursday’s early trading signals revealed a more hesitant tone. Germany’s DAX was projected to edge up 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 to rise by 0.1%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB to open slightly higher. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE index hovered marginally below the flatline, suggesting regional divergence in investor expectations.

This pause follows a broader global upswing driven by increasing market confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in December. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now price in an 84.9% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 9–10 meeting. While this has supported Wall Street and buoyed Asia-Pacific markets, European traders appear to be taking a breather after pricing in much of the optimism.

Lack of Domestic Catalysts Shifts Focus to U.S. and China

The subdued open reflects a combination of cautious sentiment and limited domestic drivers. There were no major earnings reports scheduled for Thursday in Europe. Economic data releases such as Germany’s GfK consumer confidence and broader EU sentiment indicators are unlikely to shift market direction significantly unless they diverge meaningfully from forecasts.

The absence of major local headlines pushes investor attention outward toward U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical developments like China’s industrial slowdown and ongoing trade uncertainties. These external conditions influence European equities both directly, through multinational corporate exposure, and indirectly, through currency and commodity markets.

Speculation Around Puma Sparks Corporate Activity Interest

Despite the broader market's quiet tone, individual names are attracting attention. Bloomberg reported that Chinese sportswear giant Anta Sports may be preparing a bid for Germany’s Puma, one of Europe’s key athletic brands. While Puma has declined to comment, this potential acquisition could rekindle interest in the consumer discretionary and retail sector, especially given the growing wave of outbound Chinese investment despite capital controls.

Mergers and acquisitions often have a strong signaling effect in Europe’s fragmented corporate landscape, and any confirmation of interest from Anta may prompt revaluations across the sector.

Wall Street and Asia Set the Tone, But Europe Decelerates

Wall Street’s Wednesday rally marking its fourth consecutive day of gains has been a primary sentiment driver globally. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq each gained 0.7% to 0.8%, with technology and financial stocks leading the surge. Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei up 1% and South Korea’s Kospi rising 0.7%. India’s indices reached record highs, reflecting strong domestic investor appetite.

However, Europe’s slower Thursday opening suggests the region is entering a phase of tactical recalibration. Investors may be awaiting clearer signals from both central banks and corporate earnings, particularly in the absence of concrete fiscal stimulus from European governments.

While the global rally, fueled by Fed dovishness and improved earnings sentiment, continues to shape equity markets, Europe’s hesitant open reflects a more measured approach. Traders appear to be digesting gains and awaiting fresh catalysts, particularly data that might validate or challenge the current rate-cut narrative. Until then, European markets may remain range-bound, supported by global optimism but restrained by domestic uncertainties and structural inertia.