Trump Says He Will Not Attend Supreme Court Hearing On Tariffs

Summary:

President Donald Trump said he would skip attending the Supreme Court hearing this week over the legality of his worldwide tariffs regime.

"I don't want to call a lot of attention to me," Trump told reporters on Air Force One as he returned to Washington from his Mar-a-Lago estate on Sunday. "It's not about me, it's about our country."

The court is scheduled on Wednesday to hear Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that many of his "Liberation Day" tariffs exceeded the president's emergency power to regulate imports.

Trump called the eventual Supreme Court ruling "one of the most important decisions in the history of the country."

"If we don't have tariffs, we don't have national security, and the rest of the world would laugh at us because they've used tariffs against us for years and took advantage of us," he said Sunday.

Trump had said he felt an "obligation" to watch in person as the Supreme Court weighed his power to impose tariffs. If he had attended, he would have been the first sitting president in US history to attend oral arguments at the high court.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Olivia Brooks

Economic

Parts of the U.S. economy, particularly housing, may already be in recession because of high interest rates, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday, repeating his call for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts.

"I think that we are in good shape, but I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession," Bessent said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "And the Fed has caused a lot of distributional problems with their policies."

Bessent said that, although the overall U.S. economy remains solid, high mortgage rates still hinder the real estate market. Housing, he said, is effectively in a recession that is hitting low-end consumers the hardest because they have debts, not assets.

Pending home sales in the United States were flat in September, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The treasury secretary characterized the overall economic environment as in a transition period.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week signaled that the central bank may not cut rates further at its December meeting, prompting sharp criticism from Bessent and other Trump administration officials.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who is on leave from his post as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview with the New York Times published on Saturday that the Fed risked inducing a recession if it did not swiftly lower interest rates.

Miran, who is due to return to his White House job in January, was one of two central bank governors who dissented from last week's Fed decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, arguing instead for a cut of 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point.

"If you keep policy this tight for a long period of time, then you run the risk that monetary policy itself is inducing a recession," Miran said in the New York Times interview, which was conducted on Friday. "I don't see a reason to run that risk if I'm not concerned about inflation on the upside."

Bessent Says High US Interest Rates May Have Caused Housing Recession_1

Bessent echoed that view, saying that the Trump administration's cuts in government spending had helped to lower the deficit-to-gross-domestic-product ratio to 5.9% from 6.4%, which in turn should help lower inflation. The Fed can also help by continuing to bring down interest rates, he said.

"If we are contracting spending, then I would think inflation would be dropping. If inflation is dropping, then the Fed should be cutting rates," he said.

Source: Investing

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Economic

Commodity

Oil advanced after OPEC+ said it plans to pause output increases during the first quarter after making another modest hike for next month.

Brent crude rose above $65 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $61. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies said on Sunday they would raise crude production by about 137,000 barrels a day in December, matching increases scheduled for October and November, then take a January-to-March hiatus.

The move by OPEC+ comes as the market faces the prospect of a ballooning oversupply that has seen Brent lose 10% over the past three months. Prices have pulled back from a five-month low after increased US sanctions on Russia created question marks about the supply prospects from the major exporter.

"Delegates said the decision to pause from January reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown," ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. analysts Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes said in a note. "We suspect they're also aware that the market may struggle to take any additional barrels, particularly if disruptions to Russian supply end up being temporary."

Traders will also be monitoring physical disruptions to supply, after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Black Sea region left an oil tanker ablaze and damaged oil-loading facilities in the port city of Tuapse. The area is home to a major refinery run by Rosneft PJSC, which was sanctioned along with Lukoil PJSC by the Trump administration last month.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

A Strategic Pause in the US-China Trade Dispute

On November 1, the White House formally released the details of a new trade agreement reached between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The deal is aimed at easing economic tensions between the world’s two largest economies and restoring a level of predictability to bilateral trade flows. It features a reciprocal series of tariff reductions and a moratorium on critical export controls, particularly targeting the technology and agricultural sectors.

As part of the agreement, the United States will reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percentage points, lowering the average tariff rate from 57% to approximately 47%. A more specific reduction was also announced for fentanyl-related imports, which will see their tariff rate halved from 20% to 10%.

In addition, the US government agreed to suspend for one year an expansion of the Department of Commerce’s blacklist, which restricts Chinese firms from acquiring American technology. This measure, initially designed to curb circumvention via subsidiaries, will now be delayed, giving Chinese firms more time to comply or restructure operations.

Furthermore, new port fees for Chinese-built, owned, or flagged vessels will be postponed for a year offering temporary relief to the shipping and logistics sectors, which have been entangled in maritime tensions since mid-2022.

China’s Commitments: Raw Material Access and Chip Production Continuity

On the Chinese side, significant concessions were made regarding export controls. Beijing agreed to pause all new restrictions on rare earth elements and magnets for one year and to issue general export licenses for critical materials including gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and rare earths. This move effectively nullifies the restrictive measures China had imposed in April 2025 and October 2022, which had disrupted global supply chains for advanced manufacturing.

China also pledged to maintain operations at the domestic facilities of Nexperia, a semiconductor company, ensuring the continued supply of legacy chip products vital to global markets. This commitment underscores a shared interest in stabilizing the semiconductor ecosystem amid geopolitical fragmentation.

Rollback of Countermeasures: Agriculture and Shipping Industries Benefit

In another major development, China agreed to suspend all retaliatory tariffs imposed since March 4, 2025. These included levies on key US agricultural exports such as wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, pork, and beef. Non-tariff barriers and anti-dumping investigations targeting US firms especially those in semiconductor supply chains will also be lifted or discontinued.

Notably, China has pledged to resume large-scale soybean imports, promising a minimum purchase of 12 million tonnes for the current season and 25 million tonnes annually over the next three years. This commitment reinstates China as a central buyer of American agricultural output and may help soothe political tensions in US farming regions.

Strategic Implications and Global Signaling

The agreement signals a rare moment of detente in an otherwise turbulent bilateral relationship. While neither side has completely dismantled structural barriers, the temporary rollbacks suggest a recognition of mutual economic interdependence, particularly in high-stakes sectors such as agriculture, semiconductors, and rare earths.

From a strategic standpoint, the deal is not just a tariff compromise, it is also a signal to global markets that Washington and Beijing can recalibrate relations through negotiated mechanisms rather than escalation. However, it is important to note that the agreement is limited in duration, with most major suspensions capped at one year. This makes the underlying arrangement more of a ceasefire than a long-term solution.

The US-China trade agreement reflects a tactical convergence of economic interests amid a backdrop of strategic competition. While the reduction in tariffs and removal of retaliatory barriers offer immediate relief to key industries, the temporary nature of these measures leaves open the possibility of renewed conflict. The agreement offers a window for both countries to reassess long-term policies, but without deeper structural alignment, future volatility remains likely. As global supply chains adapt, the efficacy of this deal will depend on follow-through, compliance, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.

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Economic

Strategic Pivot: Russia Taps Yuan Reserves for Domestic Investment

In a groundbreaking financial move, Russia is preparing to issue its first-ever yuan-denominated sovereign bonds on the domestic market. According to multiple sources cited by Reuters, the Ministry of Finance is set to roll out four tranches of bonds totaling 400 billion rubles (approximately $5 billion), with maturities ranging from 3 to 10 years. The offering, slated for early December, is designed to serve as a new investment channel for Russian exporters and banks that have accumulated vast reserves of Chinese yuan through energy trade.

This decision comes at a critical time when Russia is under tightening US sanctions, particularly against its energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil. With the deadline of November 21 for sanctions enforcement, these companies are repatriating yuan-denominated earnings rapidly. As a result, domestic liquidity in yuan has soared, pushing interest rates on yuan deposits in Russia to historic lows.

Yuan Liquidity Surge Drives Financial Innovation

Driven by a ballooning trade relationship with China totaling a record $245 billion in 2024, with 90% of transactions now settled in rubles and yuan Russia faces a surplus of yuan liquidity. Energy exports alone accounted for $47.6 billion in bilateral trade during the first eight months of 2025, comprising one-third of the total. This imbalance has created a unique monetary environment where exporters, particularly in oil and gas, are searching for yuan-based investment vehicles.

The upcoming bond issuance is thus not just a funding strategy but a structural mechanism to absorb excess yuan in the domestic banking system. Analysts at Renaissance Capital emphasize that this bond scheme will alleviate currency mismatch risks and strengthen financial safety buffers within banks saturated with yuan deposits.

Investor Landscape and Regulatory Constraints

The Russian government has already initiated consultations with potential domestic investors including banks, asset managers, and brokerage firms catering to retail clients to pre-market the bonds. Despite the initiative’s scale, its scope will be limited. Since the bonds are expected to be traded on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), which is currently under Western sanctions, foreign investors including Chinese institutions are unlikely to participate. This restricts the issuance’s reach to domestic entities, narrowing investor diversity but strengthening internal circulation of yuan-based assets.

Importantly, while the bonds are denominated in yuan, transactions can also be settled in rubles at prevailing exchange rates, allowing for flexibility in settlement methods. This dual-option approach may enhance appeal for domestic buyers while easing pressure on the central bank’s foreign exchange operations.

Geopolitical and Market Implications

The bond issuance marks a strategic milestone in Russia’s broader effort to de-dollarize its financial system and deepen economic integration with China. The initiative complements ongoing negotiations to establish a financial "bridge" between Russian and Chinese markets allowing cross-border asset investment beyond Western regulatory oversight. However, progress on this front remains stalled, suggesting the yuan bond issuance is both a financial necessity and a symbolic gesture of autonomy.

The bond plan also underscores Moscow’s pragmatic response to international isolation. Instead of viewing sanctions solely as constraints, Russian financial authorities are leveraging them to accelerate alternative financial infrastructure and regional currency alignment. This causal relationship between external pressure and internal policy innovation demonstrates how geopolitical stressors are reshaping Russia’s capital markets.

Russia’s planned yuan bond issuance reflects a confluence of strategic necessity and financial innovation. It addresses liquidity management challenges stemming from the country's deepening energy trade with China while creating investment opportunities in a closed financial environment. If successful, it could lay the groundwork for a broader yuan-based capital market in Russia, further anchoring Sino-Russian economic interdependence and accelerating the de-dollarization of Eurasian trade. As energy cooperation deepens and geopolitical divisions widen, this bond initiative may mark the beginning of a long-term financial realignment.

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Economic

Tariff Headwinds Surpassed by AI-Led Momentum

In the face of escalating trade tensions, ASEAN's economic performance in the third quarter of 2025 proved notably resilient. According to Maybank’s latest report titled “Tariff Headwinds, Tech Tailwinds: AI-Led Resilience”, artificial intelligence (AI)–related investments and exports have mitigated the adverse impact of US retaliatory tariffs implemented on August 7. The data shows a steady pace of expansion across the region, particularly in economies with strong electronics and tech sectors.

Vietnam recorded robust GDP growth of 8.2%, consistent with its Q2 performance. Malaysia’s GDP rose to 5.2% (up from 4.4%), while Singapore saw a moderated growth of 2.9% which analysts believe could be revised upward to 4% following a 16.1% surge in September’s manufacturing output and a 6.9% increase in non-oil domestic exports (NODX). Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines are expected to report their Q3 GDP in November.

AI Capital Expenditure Fuels Trade and Investment

A core driver of this sustained momentum is the rapid escalation in capital expenditure (CAPEX) for AI infrastructure. Major US tech companies have significantly raised their AI investment budgets, and this spending wave is trickling into Southeast Asia through demand for electronic components, semiconductors, and data infrastructure. The US alone boosted its annual investment in IT hardware and software to $1.5 trillion in Q2 2025, up from $1.2 trillion in Q2 2023 representing 4.9% of its GDP.

This surge has also doubled US imports of computing hardware and peripherals to $336.2 billion annually (1.1% of GDP), up from $153.1 billion two years earlier. ASEAN economies are increasingly integrated into this supply chain, especially Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam, where high export ratios in electronics position them as key beneficiaries.

Trade Growth Holds Despite Tariff Escalation

Export growth across ASEAN showed resilience in September, with no substantial contraction observed despite the tariff spike. This outcome stems from multiple interacting factors: select tariff exemptions, controlled re-exports by US partners, and heightened demand from AI-linked industries. Aside from Indonesia, port and airport freight volumes continued to grow across the region.

Semiconductor and electronics exports remained particularly robust, buoyed by their exclusion from reciprocal tariffs and increasing global demand tied to AI proliferation. This suggests a causal rather than merely correlational relationship: the rise of AI infrastructure is directly elevating export demand for ASEAN-made electronic goods.

Diversifying Supply Chains Draw FDI Into ASEAN

The relocation of supply chains out of China remains a significant theme underpinning ASEAN’s growth. Escalating risks of tariff shocks and regulatory crackdowns in China have prompted US companies to accelerate diversification. ASEAN countries are emerging as politically neutral and logistically viable destinations for manufacturing realignment, attracting consistent foreign direct investment (FDI) and fixed capital inflows.

Construction of data centers and energy grids especially in Johor and Bangkok is accelerating, underscoring a regional pivot toward hosting next-generation digital infrastructure. These investments are not just correlated with AI demand but directly driven by it, as the global AI race spurs demand for physical computing environments and energy resilience.

Supportive Monetary and Fiscal Environments

Policy frameworks across ASEAN remain accommodative. Maybank forecasts further rate cuts in Indonesia (-125 basis points), Thailand (-50 basis points), and the Philippines (-25 basis points) through 2025 and into 2026. Although Indonesia’s credit response has so far been muted, broader monetary easing is expected to support domestic demand recovery next year.

Meanwhile, fiscal stimulus measures are being deployed across the bloc to soften the blow of trade disruptions and support consumption, adding another layer of defense to economic stability.

Tourism Recovery Diverges Across ASEAN

Tourism performance remains mixed. Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia witnessed recovery in hotel and tourism services during Q3, while Thailand struggled due to a steep decline in Chinese arrivals amid safety concerns. Maybank anticipates Vietnam and Malaysia will continue capturing a larger share of Chinese tourism in 2026, at Thailand’s expense. This shift could gradually reshape the region’s tourism landscape and contribute modestly to service-sector growth.

AI adoption and broader digitization trends are bolstering ASEAN’s information and communication technology sectors. These shifts are stimulating growth in professional services and cloud-related solutions, positioning ASEAN not only as a manufacturing hub but also as a rising digital services provider. Vietnam and Indonesia are currently leading this expansion, suggesting a realignment of growth engines beyond traditional exports.

AI as a Structural Growth Catalyst

The AI investment boom is now reaching beyond core infrastructure to consumer-facing technologies such as smartphones and laptops. This widening scope is expected to generate sustained demand for semiconductors and electronics, strengthening the role of ASEAN exporters in global supply chains.

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), a 1% increase in AI and cloud-related spending can raise GDP by 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively. While seemingly modest, these effects are amplified in economies with strong exposure to electronics and digital services further reinforcing the importance of strategic positioning.

ASEAN’s Q3 performance highlights a critical inflection point. Despite trade headwinds, the region’s structural exposure to AI-fueled industries and strategic policy responses have preserved economic momentum. Moving into 2026, the durability of this trajectory will hinge on sustained AI investment flows, deeper digital integration, and continued diversification from legacy supply chains. Rather than being passive recipients of global trends, ASEAN economies are positioning themselves as active participants in the AI-powered global economy an approach that may define the region’s growth path for years to come.

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Economic

Commodity

US Sanctions Trigger Ripple Effects Across Europe

The US decision to impose sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, on October 31 has sent immediate shockwaves through European fuel markets. Bulgaria, which relies heavily on Lukoil’s infrastructure, responded the very same day with a temporary ban on fuel exports primarily diesel and aviation fuel to EU member states. The goal is to safeguard internal energy stability ahead of the sanctions' enforcement date on November 22.

Lukoil operates Bulgaria’s Burgas refinery with a capacity of 190,000 barrels per day, fulfilling approximately 80% of the country’s fuel needs. With a sprawling network of over 200 gas stations and supporting logistics, Lukoil’s dominance in the domestic energy landscape makes Bulgaria highly susceptible to any disruption in its operations.

Export Ban to Shield Domestic Market from Supply Shortage

Bulgaria’s National Assembly mandated customs authorities to enforce the fuel export ban while allowing exceptions for domestic and foreign military refueling and essential services, such as air and maritime transport. However, even these limited carve-outs underscore the scale of the potential threat to national energy security.

Although framed as a temporary measure, the urgency and scope of the ban illustrate the direct correlation between global geopolitical sanctions and domestic economic resilience. Bulgaria’s reliance on Russian-linked infrastructure creates a high-risk environment where external political actions can swiftly destabilize internal energy flows. This relationship is causal, as the US sanction policy acted as the trigger for Bulgaria’s immediate policy reversal.

Lukoil Asset Sale and OFAC Scrutiny

In parallel to the unfolding geopolitical tension, Lukoil is attempting to distance itself from possible fallout. On October 30, it accepted a bid from Gunvor, a Swiss-based commodity trading company, to acquire all foreign assets held under LUKOIL International GmbH (Austria). This includes a vast portfolio of operations spanning Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Egypt, the UAE, Latin America, and Africa. Analysts at Renaissance Capital estimate the value of the asset package at $3–4 billion after discounts, while Lukoil’s entire foreign asset base is estimated at approximately $10 billion.

The transaction still awaits approval from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) under the US Treasury Department, a prerequisite that adds further uncertainty. The requirement of US oversight in the deal illustrates a clear dependency on Washington’s regulatory apparatus, indicating a strong causal link between sanction enforcement and global capital flows within the oil sector.

Energy Dependency Highlights Broader Strategic Vulnerability

Beyond Bulgaria, Lukoil's influence stretches across Europe with refineries in Romania and the Netherlands and around 5,000 gas stations throughout the continent. This reveals a deeper structural dependence of Europe on Russian energy companies not merely for raw oil supply, but for refined products, distribution, and infrastructure management.

Bulgaria’s appeal to the US for a sanction exemption for Lukoil underlines the economic and political dilemma many European nations face. Although committed to reducing reliance on Russian energy in principle, the physical and logistical systems in place are not yet fully decoupled. This dependence is not merely correlational but structural and historical, a result of years of infrastructure entrenchment and lack of diversification.

Sanctions Expose Europe’s Fragile Energy Autonomy

The cascading impact of US sanctions on Russian oil firms underscores how geopolitical tools can rapidly reconfigure local policy landscapes. Bulgaria’s reaction halting fuel exports to preserve domestic availability demonstrates both the country’s vulnerability and the broader European predicament: an energy architecture still tethered to Russian-linked systems despite stated goals of independence.

Until substantial infrastructural and sourcing diversification is achieved, measures like Bulgaria’s export ban are likely to recur, reinforcing the causal feedback loop between international sanctions and national energy insecurity.

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