Top Technical Analysis Tools for Traders

Economic

Summary:

Discover the best technical analysis tools for traders, from moving averages to oscillators. Learn how to use these indicators to improve your trading strategy and decision-making process.

Technical analysis plays a critical role in helping traders understand market trends, forecast price movements, and develop effective trading strategies. By analyzing historical price data and using various indicators, traders can gain insights into potential market conditions, identify entry and exit points, and optimize their risk management strategies. This article explores the top technical analysis tools used by traders and how they can enhance your trading approach.

1. Moving Averages (MA)

Moving averages are one of the most widely used technical analysis tools in the trading world. They smooth out price data over a specified period, helping to identify trends and market direction. The two most common types are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Simple Moving Average (SMA):

The SMA is calculated by averaging the closing prices over a specified number of periods. This type of moving average is useful for identifying long-term trends but can be slower to react to price changes.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA):

The EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to price fluctuations. Traders often use the EMA to spot shorter-term trends.

Moving averages are particularly useful when combined with other indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). When the price crosses above or below a moving average, it can signal a potential buy or sell opportunity.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100 and is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a market.

RSI above 70 typically indicates an overbought market, suggesting that the asset might be due for a pullback.

RSI below 30 suggests an oversold market, which could be a signal that the asset is undervalued and due for a reversal.

Traders often use the RSI in conjunction with other indicators to confirm trends and refine their entries and exits. The RSI can also help in spotting divergence, where the price moves in one direction while the RSI moves in the opposite, signaling a potential reversal.

3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD is another essential technical analysis tool that combines both trend-following and momentum indicators. The MACD consists of two lines: the MACD line and the signal line.

The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line.

When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish signal, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it is seen as a bearish signal, suggesting a potential sell.

The MACD can also be used to identify divergence, which occurs when the price forms new highs or lows while the MACD does not, signaling a potential change in the trend.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are volatility indicators that consist of three lines: the middle band (SMA), the upper band, and the lower band. The upper and lower bands are typically set two standard deviations away from the middle band, which represents the moving average.

When the price moves close to the upper band, it indicates that the asset may be overbought.

When the price moves near the lower band, it suggests that the asset may be oversold.

Bollinger Bands are particularly useful for identifying periods of low volatility, known as consolidation, and when the market may break out into a new trend. Traders often look for price action near the bands, followed by a significant move, which may signal the start of a new trend.

5. Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci retracement is a popular tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the key Fibonacci levels. These levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence and are used to predict areas where the price may reverse or stall during a trend.

The key Fibonacci retracement levels are:

23.6%

38.2%

50%

61.8%

100%

Traders use these levels to identify potential reversal points during pullbacks or retracements in a trend. For example, if a price is trending upwards and then starts to pull back, traders will look for support at one of these Fibonacci levels to anticipate the continuation of the trend.

6. Stochastic Oscillator

The Stochastic Oscillator is another momentum indicator that compares the closing price of an asset to its price range over a specific period. It ranges from 0 to 100 and is used to identify overbought and oversold conditions.

A value above 80 suggests the market is overbought, and a potential reversal could be imminent.

A value below 20 indicates an oversold market, potentially signaling a buying opportunity.

Traders typically use the stochastic oscillator in conjunction with other indicators, such as the RSI or MACD, to confirm potential signals and improve the accuracy of their trades.

7. Volume Indicators

Volume indicators are essential tools for traders to gauge the strength of a price movement. Higher trading volume can signal increased interest in an asset and can validate the price movement, while lower volume may indicate a lack of commitment and potential for a reversal.

On-Balance Volume (OBV):

This indicator tracks the cumulative volume flow and is used to confirm price trends. An increasing OBV suggests strong buying pressure, while a decreasing OBV indicates selling pressure.

Volume Moving Average:

This tool smooths out volume spikes to identify long-term trends and volume anomalies.

Volume indicators are particularly useful in spotting breakouts, as a significant increase in volume during a price move can signal a strong trend continuation.

Conclusion

Technical analysis tools are invaluable for traders looking to understand market movements, identify trends, and make informed decisions. By mastering indicators such as moving averages, RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, traders can develop a solid strategy that improves their chances of success. However, it’s important to remember that no single indicator is foolproof. Combining multiple tools and always considering market context is crucial to building a well-rounded trading approach.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Glendon

Economic

Oil and natural gas are two of the most crucial energy commodities in the global economy, often seen as complementary in their use and importance. Many traders and investors wonder if these two energy markets rise and fall together, as they have an undeniable connection in terms of their roles in energy production, heating, electricity, and transportation. While oil and natural gas can sometimes move in tandem, the reality is more complex. Understanding the factors that influence both markets is essential for anyone involved in energy trading or investment.

The Basic Relationship Between Oil and Natural Gas

At first glance, it may seem logical to assume that the prices of oil and natural gas are closely related, given that they are both fossil fuels. Both commodities are primarily used for energy production, with oil predominantly used for transportation, heating, and industrial purposes, while natural gas is widely used for heating, electricity generation, and as a feedstock in the chemical industry. Furthermore, both markets are affected by geopolitical events, economic growth, and energy demand.

However, despite these similarities, the prices of oil and natural gas do not always move in the same direction. While there are periods when both markets rise or fall together, they can also exhibit independent price movements driven by different factors.

Why Oil and Natural Gas Prices Don’t Always Move in Tandem

Market Supply and Demand Dynamics

The most significant factor that influences the prices of both oil and natural gas is supply and demand. However, the supply and demand for these two commodities can be influenced by different factors, which may lead to independent price movements.

Oil Prices:

Oil is largely influenced by factors such as OPEC production cuts or increases, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, and global oil supply levels. For example, when OPEC decides to reduce oil production to stabilize prices, it can lead to a rise in oil prices, while natural gas may not necessarily be affected in the same way.

Natural Gas Prices:

Natural gas, on the other hand, is more sensitive to seasonal changes, particularly in the colder months when demand for heating rises. Additionally, natural gas supply is often subject to local factors, such as pipeline capacity and storage levels, as well as weather conditions, which can cause prices to fluctuate independently from oil prices.

Global Weather Events

Severe weather events, such as hurricanes and cold winters, can disrupt the supply of natural gas more than oil, leading to significant price fluctuations. For instance, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico can damage natural gas production facilities and pipelines, leading to a sharp increase in natural gas prices. Oil prices may not experience the same volatility during such events since global oil supply chains are less vulnerable to localized disruptions.

Different Consumption Patterns

Oil and natural gas have different consumption patterns across industries and geographical regions. While oil is more widely used for transportation and industrial purposes, natural gas is increasingly used for electricity generation and heating in regions like North America and Europe. Changes in demand for electricity or heating can directly impact natural gas prices, while oil prices may remain unaffected by these seasonal changes.

Moreover, natural gas is often seen as a cleaner alternative to coal in electricity generation. As governments around the world push for more sustainable energy sources, demand for natural gas has risen in some regions, driving prices higher. Meanwhile, oil demand has been more stable in the transportation sector, which does not experience the same seasonal fluctuations.

Energy Substitution and Competition

In some cases, natural gas and oil can act as substitutes for each other, especially in the power generation sector. When natural gas prices rise significantly, utilities may switch to oil-based power generation, which can put upward pressure on oil prices. However, when oil prices rise, it may make natural gas more attractive for power generation, especially if the cost of natural gas is relatively lower. This substitution effect can sometimes lead to a correlation between the two markets, but it also means that price movements in one commodity may not always align with the other.

When Do Oil and Natural Gas Prices Move Together?

Although oil and natural gas prices can move independently, there are certain conditions where the two markets tend to move in sync:

Global Economic Growth

In times of strong global economic growth, both oil and natural gas demand tends to rise as industrial activity increases, transportation needs grow, and power generation requirements expand. During periods of global economic expansion, both oil and natural gas prices may rise together as demand for energy increases across the board.

Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical events, such as tensions in oil-rich regions like the Middle East or sanctions on major oil-producing countries, can cause both oil and natural gas prices to rise simultaneously. This happens because such events can affect energy supply chains globally, impacting both oil and natural gas markets. Additionally, in times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors may view both oil and natural gas as safe-haven assets, causing prices to move in the same direction.

Shifts Toward Energy Transition

As the world increasingly shifts towards cleaner energy sources, the relationship between oil and natural gas prices could become more interconnected. Both energy sources are being replaced in certain regions by renewable energy options like solar and wind power. However, natural gas is often seen as a transitional fuel, bridging the gap between coal and renewables. As a result, both oil and natural gas markets may face similar pressures from policy shifts and investments in alternative energy sources, causing prices to rise or fall in tandem.

Conclusion

In summary, while oil and natural gas prices are often linked by their shared role in the global energy market, they do not always rise and fall together. The two commodities can be influenced by different supply and demand dynamics, seasonal factors, weather disruptions, and consumption patterns. While they may move in sync during times of global economic growth or geopolitical crises, their price movements can diverge depending on regional factors and market conditions.

Traders and investors should carefully consider the underlying factors influencing each market before making investment decisions. By understanding the unique drivers behind oil and natural gas prices, traders can better navigate the complexities of these two important energy markets and develop more informed strategies.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

Gold has long been regarded as a safe-haven asset and a store of value, particularly in times of economic uncertainty. As a result, it has attracted investors looking for stability and protection against inflation. However, gold isn't only for long-term investors—day traders also flock to gold for short-term opportunities, especially through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which provide a liquid and cost-effective way to trade gold without holding the physical metal.

Day-trading gold ETFs can be an excellent way to profit from the volatility of gold prices, but it requires a strong understanding of the markets, effective strategies, and the right tools to manage risk. This article offers top tips for traders looking to maximize their success when day-trading gold ETFs.

What Are Gold ETFs?

Gold ETFs are financial instruments that track the price of gold and allow investors to gain exposure to gold without owning the physical commodity. The most popular gold ETFs, such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) or iShares Gold Trust (IAU), trade like stocks on major exchanges, providing traders with an easy and liquid way to invest in gold.

Unlike traditional investments in physical gold, which can involve storage and security concerns, trading gold ETFs allows for quick entry and exit, making them ideal for day traders. Gold ETFs are also typically less expensive to trade than buying physical gold or trading gold futures contracts.

Top Tips for Day-Trading Gold ETFs

Understand Gold Price Drivers

To be successful at day-trading gold ETFs, you need to understand what drives the price of gold. The value of gold is influenced by several factors, including:

Global Economic Conditions:

Economic uncertainty, inflation, and market volatility tend to drive gold prices higher as investors flock to safe-haven assets.

Interest Rates:

Gold is sensitive to interest rates. When central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, raise interest rates, gold can experience downward pressure since higher rates make other investments, like bonds, more attractive.

U.S. Dollar Strength:

Gold and the U.S. dollar typically have an inverse relationship. A stronger dollar can lead to lower gold prices, as it makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers.

Geopolitical Events:

Events such as political instability, trade wars, or conflicts can lead to higher demand for gold as a hedge against risk.

Day traders should stay informed about these macroeconomic factors and monitor news that may cause short-term price fluctuations in gold ETFs.

Focus on Liquid Gold ETFs

Not all gold ETFs are equally liquid, and liquidity is an essential factor when day trading. You want to trade ETFs that have a high average daily trading volume, ensuring you can enter and exit trades quickly without facing significant slippage.

Popular liquid gold ETFs include:

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD):

One of the largest and most traded gold ETFs, GLD offers a simple and effective way to track the price of gold.

iShares Gold Trust (IAU):

Another highly liquid gold ETF, IAU provides a cost-effective way to trade gold.

Invesco DB Gold Fund (DGL):

This ETF is designed to track the performance of gold futures contracts, offering a slightly different exposure to gold prices than physical gold-backed ETFs.

Use Technical Analysis for Short-Term Trends

Day traders rely heavily on technical analysis to make decisions based on price movements and chart patterns. When trading gold ETFs, you should focus on short-term charts and indicators that can help you identify entry and exit points.

Some essential technical indicators for gold ETF day traders include:

Moving Averages:

The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are crucial for identifying overall market trends. Short-term moving averages, such as the 5-period and 10-period, can help pinpoint precise entry points.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

The RSI helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. When RSI is above 70, gold ETFs may be overbought, while an RSI below 30 signals oversold conditions.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

MACD is a momentum indicator that helps traders spot potential buy or sell signals when the MACD line crosses above or below the signal line.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Identifying key price levels where gold ETFs have previously reversed direction (support) or faced resistance (resistance) is essential for setting profit targets and stop-loss levels.

Trade with Risk Management in Mind

Gold prices can experience significant fluctuations, especially in times of geopolitical tension or economic uncertainty. As a day trader, managing risk is critical to protecting your capital. Implementing solid risk management strategies will help you stay in the game, even when trades don’t go as planned.

Here are a few risk management tips for day trading gold ETFs:

Set Stop-Loss Orders:

A stop-loss order ensures that your trade will automatically close if the price moves against you by a set amount. This limits your potential losses and prevents emotional decision-making.

Use Position Sizing:

Don’t risk too much on any single trade. Many traders use a risk percentage model, where they risk only 1–2% of their trading capital per trade.

Take Profits Early:

Don’t get greedy. Set profit targets at key resistance levels, and take profits when the ETF reaches your predetermined target.

Monitor Gold’s Correlation with Other Assets

Gold ETFs can sometimes show correlations with other assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities. For example, during times of market stress, gold often rises while equities fall, providing a potential hedge. Conversely, gold prices may drop when risk appetite in the market increases, and traders prefer equities or high-yield investments.

Understanding these correlations can provide day traders with additional insight into when to buy or sell gold ETFs. If you notice a strong correlation between gold and another asset class, it may help inform your decisions regarding timing and trade placement.

Stay Updated with Global News

Day-trading gold ETFs requires real-time information to react quickly to news events. Economic data releases, central bank announcements, and geopolitical developments can all impact the price of gold.

Make use of news feeds, economic calendars, and trading platforms with built-in news to keep you informed throughout the day. News that affects gold can move the market rapidly, and having the latest updates will help you make timely and informed decisions.

Consider Using Leverage Carefully

Some traders may use leverage to amplify their gains in gold ETFs. While leverage can increase your potential profit, it also increases your risk. Leverage should be used cautiously, and it’s essential to have a solid understanding of how it works before using it in day trading.

Conclusion

Day-trading gold ETFs can offer significant opportunities for profit, especially if you have a strong understanding of the market and employ sound trading strategies. By focusing on liquid ETFs, using technical analysis, implementing risk management techniques, and staying informed about global developments, you can increase your chances of success. Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset makes it a key player in any trader’s portfolio, and with the right approach, you can effectively capitalize on the short-term price movements of gold ETFs.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Germany's economic sentiment took a sharp downturn in November, with analysts pointing to a potent combination of internal political gridlock and global uncertainties following Donald Trump's election in the United States.

Despite a brief recovery in October, the mood among Germany's financial experts has soured once more, weighed down by the enduring struggles of the country's coalition government and Trump's unpredictable trade agenda.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which tracks the outlook of up to 300 economists, bankers, and industry analysts, fell to 7.1 points in November, down from 13.1 in October and significantly below both expectations of 13 points and the one-year average of 25 points.

This latest ZEW reading is the index's second-lowest level in 2024. Views on Germany's current economic situation have also soured. The ZEW's current situation index, which tracks how financial market experts perceive present economic conditions, dropped by 4.5 points to -91.4.

Concurrently, the Federal Statistical Office confirmed on Tuesday that Germany's headline inflation rate rose to 2% year-over-year in October, up from 1.6% in September and in line with earlier estimates.

Eurozone outlook dims as political and economic risks rise

Germany's economic outlook mirrors broader concerns across the eurozone.

In November, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone declined from 20.1 points in October to 12.5, missing the market's expected figure of 20.1. Similarly, views on the eurozone's current situation fell, with the index decreasing by 3.0 points to -43.8.

According to ZEW President Achim Wambach, Germany's economic sentiment reflects ongoing concerns over political and trade risks, particularly with respect to recent developments in the United States.

"Economic expectations for Germany have been overshadowed by Trump's victory and the collapse of the German government coalition," said Wambach.

He added that economic sentiment in the US is rising, while outlooks for China and the eurozone have grown more pessimistic.

Wambach explained, "The outcome of the US presidential election is likely to be the main reason for this...a very dynamic development of economic expectations."

Germany's internal challenges meet geopolitical tensions

Wambach highlighted that Germany's economic challenges are compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with Donald Trump's trade policies expected to add further strain.

"Europe benefits from open markets.

"Trump, on the other hand, wants to introduce higher tariffs and reduce taxes for companies in the USA. This will exacerbate Europe's economic problems, as European companies will feel even more compelled to produce in the USA instead of delivering finished products there," he noted.

Wambach also stressed that Germany urgently needs a more proactive government to drive an investment agenda, bolster infrastructure, and focus on Europe's economic security.

He emphasised that merely adhering to fiscal conservatism won't solve Germany's structural issues: "Germany urgently needs a government capable of taking action that reduces climate policy to its efficient core," Wambach said, calling for a robust, investment-focused approach to ensure resilience amid mounting economic headwinds.

Market impacts: Stocks and euro decline

The German DAX index fell by 0.7% during Tuesday morning trading, mirroring declines across European indices, with the broader Euro STOXX 50 also falling by 0.7%.

Bayer AG, the pharmaceuticals and crop sciences giant, saw shares plummet over 11% due to underwhelming earnings and downgraded future projections.

Across the broader eurozone market, France's CAC 40 led losses with a drop of over 1%. Shares of luxury companies such as Kering and LVMH fell 4.6% and 2.2% respectively, with investors wary of Trump's proposed trade restrictions, which could harm European exports to key markets, including China.

Investor anxiety over a Trump administration was further stoked by speculation that US Senator Marco Rubio, a well-known hawk on China, could be tapped as Secretary of State.

Meanwhile, the euro continued its slide against the US dollar, falling 0.4% to reach a seven-month low at around 1.06 levels.

The single currency has lost value in seven out of the past eight weeks, largely due to expectations that Trump's trade policies could strengthen the dollar by curbing imports and stimulating domestic growth.

Source: Euronews

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Crypto market capitalization has reached a new all-time high of $3.12 trillion — close to surpassing France’s gross domestic product (GDP).

On Nov. 11, total crypto market capitalization soared 7% over 24 hours, mostly on a surge in Bitcoin , which rallied to $89,500.

If the crypto market were a country, it would be the eighth-largest in GDP terms behind the United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, the United Kingdom and France.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market cap alone is now over $1.77 trillion — larger than Spain’s GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The last time the total crypto market cap was at $3 trillion was Nov. 15, 2021, shortly after Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high of $69,000 in the 2020-2021 bull market, according to CoinGecko, which tracks 15,129 coins from 1,149 crypto exchanges.

Crypto Market Cap Hits $3.1T High, May Soon Surpass France’s GDP_1

Change in the crypto market cap over the last month. Source: CoinGecko

The crypto market cap is now larger than that of tech giant Microsoft and is closing in on Nvidia and Apple, the world’s two most valuable companies, Google Finance data shows.

The Bitcoin price rally also pushed its market cap above that of silver again on Nov. 11. Crypto Market Cap Hits $3.1T High, May Soon Surpass France’s GDP_2

Crypto Market Cap Hits $3.1T High, May Soon Surpass France’s GDP_2

The fifth to 12th largest assets by market cap. Source: Companies Market Cap

Speaking to Cointelegraph, founder of 10x Research Markus Thielen said he expects Bitcoin dominance to “remain strong” as the crypto market cap moves toward $4 trillion.

“We anticipate Bitcoin’s dominance to remain strong, with the current rally primarily centered on Bitcoin and extending toward Ethereum and Solana.”

“We firmly expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before year-end.”

A Bitcoin price tag of $100,000 would take its market cap to nearly $2 trillion.Not everyone agrees with Thielen.Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph that a crypto market rally toward $4 trillion would likely be driven by a “massive surge in altcoins,” thus causing a decline in Bitcoin’s dominance.

Thielen also said a few Solana-based tokens may outperform the market and many high-performers from the 2020-2021 bull cycle may underperform.

Bitcoin is currently priced at $89,478 — up 11% over 24 hours and within striking distance of crossing the $90,000 mark.

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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ACY

Economic

Forex

Trump win is marked as USD-positive, suggesting that significant dollar strength could reshape EUR/USD trends in the months ahead. Here, we will dive into the primary factors shaping this pair in the wake of Trump’s win and the implications for both short-term and long-term trading strategies.

Trump’s Victory and a “Red Wave” Congress: The Impact on USD

Trump’s re-election, alongside a Republican majority in Congress, sets the stage for aggressive fiscal stimulus and assertive trade policies. This alignment represents a potent "red wave" scenario, positioning the U.S. dollar for notable strength. Let’s explore the major factors and the expected effects on EUR/USD.

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_1

Aggressive Fiscal Stimulus Boosts USD Demand

With full Congressional support, Trump is expected to implement substantial fiscal measures aimed at accelerating U.S. economic growth amidst a slowing global economy. Key impacts include:

Increased Economic Growth Expectations: As fiscal stimulus supports economic resilience in the U.S., investors worldwide may look to USD-denominated assets, fuelling dollar demand.

Downward Pressure on EUR/USD: For Europe, facing recession risks and a dovish European Central Bank (ECB), this may mean capital flows favour the USD, driving EUR/USD lower. Traders tracking fiscal policy announcements could find success in taking short EUR/USD positions during these periods of heightened U.S. growth expectations.

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_2

Assertive Trade Policies Reinforce USD Strength

Trump’s anticipated protectionist trade stance could include new tariffs and policies targeted at key U.S. trading partners, particularly the Eurozone and China. These moves are likely to have a two-fold effect:

Additional Downward Pressure on the Euro: European exporters may suffer amid trade uncertainties, making the EUR more vulnerable.

Strengthened Dollar Position: As the U.S. seeks a competitive advantage through trade restrictions, USD is likely to gain, further driving EUR/USD lower.

For EUR/USD spot traders, maintaining short positions during trade policy announcements could be profitable, especially with news hinting at new tariffs or import restrictions.

Elevated Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Response

Historically, Trump’s fiscal stimulus and trade policies have contributed to inflationary pressures, and this dynamic may re-emerge in 2025. Persistent inflation might force the Fed to reassess its stance, potentially shifting from a dovish position to a more hawkish one. For EUR/USD traders, key considerations include:

Volatility Catalysts: Inflation data and Fed communications will be essential for determining shifts in USD strength.

Short EUR/USD Strategy: Favourable trades may emerge following inflation data that heightens the Fed’s likelihood of maintaining rate hikes or delaying cuts. Traders may want to leverage inflation-driven USD strength to optimize entry and exit points.

FedWatch Toll

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_3

Strategic EUR/USD Positioning in 2025

With the “red wave” and Trump’s fiscal and trade policies setting the stage, here’s how EUR/USD trading could unfold:

Short-Term (Year End 2024)

Expect downward momentum for EUR/USD as U.S. fiscal and trade policies continue to support the USD. Traders could find strong opportunities with short EUR/USD positions around high-impact fiscal announcements, trade-related news, and inflation data.

Medium to Long-Term (H1 2025)

As the initial impacts of fiscal stimulus and trade policies stabilize, the USD’s upward momentum may moderate. If the Fed continues easing policy in late 2024 or early 2025 in response to slowing growth, traders may find opportunities to pivot to EUR/USD longs in anticipation of a USD pullback.

Chart-Based Strategy Insights for 2025

The Trump vs. Harris matrix offers a strategic framework for 2024, emphasizing USD strength. However, flexibility will be crucial as market conditions evolve. Traders should consider:

Short EUR/USD Positions: The matrix suggests a strong preference for short EUR/USD, especially as fiscal and trade policies favour USD strength.

Volatility Triggers: Inflation reports, fiscal announcements, and trade policy changes are expected to drive market fluctuations, offering entry and exit points for responsive.

Long-Term Strategy Adjustment: With potential Fed rate cuts to continue during 2024, economic cooling could signal an inflection point, making it possible to pivot to EUR/USD longs when conditions suggest a USD pullback.

Harris x Trump Matrix

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders_4

Trading EUR/USD in a Post-2024 Trump Landscape

Trump’s 2024 victory and a red-wave Congress mark a USD-positive scenario, aligning with the “Fiscal Activism & Assertive Trade Policy” quadrant of the matrix. This setup creates a favourable environment for short EUR/USD trades in the near term, especially as fiscal stimulus and assertive trade policies unfold.

However, as the economic cycle matures, traders should remain vigilant for shifts in the Fed’s stance, which could prompt a pivot in EUR/USD strategies. The Trump vs. Harris matrix thus provides a valuable framework for navigating both immediate opportunities and potential shifts, guiding a structured approach to trading EUR/USD in 2024 and beyond.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

For the past few years only cursory attention has been paid to the unemployment figures because the jobless rate has been low and there have been plenty of unfilled vacancies for those seeking work. But, thanks to a slowing economy and decisions made by Rachel Reeves in last month’s budget, that could be about to change.

For the next few months every release on the state of the labour market will be scrutinised to see what impact two announcements made by Reeves last month are having on jobs.

Inevitably, the chancellor’s decision to increase the national minimum wage by 6.7% and increase employer national insurance contributions will have some effect but it will take months to assess how big those effects will be.

The good news for Reeves is that she has pushed up the cost of employment when the labour market is in pretty good shape. The unemployment rate in the three months to September stood at 4.3%, up from 4% in the three months to August. However, the problems the Office for National Statistics is having with the data for its labour force survey means that increase should be treated with caution. Britain’s jobless rate is still low by historical standards.

The less good news for the chancellor is that there are some signs of the labour market cooling. An alternative measure of calculating jobs growth – payroll numbers from HMRC – was down by 5,000 in October and has fallen in five of the past seven months.

Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies dropped by 35,000 in the three months to October and at 831,000 is now only slightly above their pre-pandemic levels. On the face of it, the increase in average earnings growth from 3.9% in the three months to August to 4.3% in the three months ending in September paints a stronger picture but the annual comparisons are distorted by one-off payments to civil servants in the summer of 2023.

Sanjay Raja, the chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said the figures from the ONS pointed to a steady loosening in the labour market, which makes it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates but creates a potential headache for Reeves.

For now there is not much for the chancellor to worry about. But as Raja notes: “There are some cracks appearing in the labour market – even before budget measures start to bite.”

Source: TheGuardian

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Top Technical Analysis Tools for Traders

1. Moving Averages (MA)

Simple Moving Average (SMA):

Exponential Moving Average (EMA):

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

4. Bollinger Bands

5. Fibonacci Retracement

6. Stochastic Oscillator

7. Volume Indicators

On-Balance Volume (OBV):

Volume Moving Average:

Conclusion

Do Oil and Natural Gas Prices Rise and Fall Together

The Basic Relationship Between Oil and Natural Gas

Why Oil and Natural Gas Prices Don’t Always Move in Tandem

Market Supply and Demand Dynamics

Global Weather Events

Different Consumption Patterns

Energy Substitution and Competition

When Do Oil and Natural Gas Prices Move Together?

Global Economic Growth

Geopolitical Events

Shifts Toward Energy Transition

Conclusion

Top Day-Trading Tips for Gold ETFs

What Are Gold ETFs?

Top Tips for Day-Trading Gold ETFs

Conclusion

Germany's Economic Sentiment Falters as Trump's Win Casts Shadow

Eurozone outlook dims as political and economic risks rise

Germany's internal challenges meet geopolitical tensions

Market impacts: Stocks and euro decline

Source: Euronews

Crypto Market Cap Hits $3.1T High, May Soon Surpass France’s GDP

Change in the crypto market cap over the last month. Source: CoinGecko

The fifth to 12th largest assets by market cap. Source: Companies Market Cap

Source: Cointelegraph

What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for EUR/USD: Key Insights for Traders

Trump’s Victory and a “Red Wave” Congress: The Impact on USD

Aggressive Fiscal Stimulus Boosts USD Demand

Assertive Trade Policies Reinforce USD Strength

Elevated Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Response

Strategic EUR/USD Positioning in 2025

Short-Term (Year End 2024)

Medium to Long-Term (H1 2025)

Chart-Based Strategy Insights for 2025

Trading EUR/USD in a Post-2024 Trump Landscape

UK Jobs Market in Spotlight After Reeves’s Tax Rises on Employers

Source: TheGuardian

Risk Disclosure