The Demographic Tipping Point: How Europe’s Low Birth Rates Threaten Economic and Social Stability

Economic

Summary:

Europe is grappling with mounting socio-economic pressure due to declining birth rates, driven by shifting social values, gender roles, and fertility challenges. Projections show a future of aging populations and shrinking labor forces,...

Birth rates falling below replacement levels: a mounting structural challenge

Europe’s declining birth rates are no longer a temporary demographic fluctuation but a sustained trend with deep-rooted economic and societal implications. Recent figures reveal that no European country currently achieves the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. For instance, the Czech Republic reported a fertility rate of just 1.3 in 2024, while Malta recorded the lowest at 1.06. Even Bulgaria, the continent’s best performer, only reached 1.81.

This persistent underperformance reveals more than a correlation — there is an emerging causative trend between societal modernization and fertility decline. As nations modernize, fertility rates tend to fall due to delayed family planning, career prioritization, and a reevaluation of traditional roles, especially among women.

Changing family norms and the rise of voluntary childlessness

Social surveys conducted across 27 European countries show a cultural shift: a growing number of young adults are consciously opting for child-free lifestyles. Only around 10% of women and 8% of men aged 20 to 29 in Europe actively plan to have children. This phenomenon reflects more than individual preference — it mirrors systemic changes in gender roles, economic opportunity costs, and lifestyle values.

Women now attain higher educational levels and broader career access than previous generations, but motherhood often comes at a personal and financial cost. The imbalance in domestic responsibilities further disincentivizes childbearing, as women remain disproportionately burdened by unpaid labor even in dual-income households.

The shift began with the demographic revolution of the 1960s, when traditional religious and social norms lost dominance. Today, countries like Norway and the Netherlands report 80–90% social acceptance toward women choosing not to have children, while Central and Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Hungary remain more conservative. Interestingly, Denmark shows a cultural paradox — valuing children for personal fulfillment while strongly supporting individual reproductive autonomy.

Gender disparity and public perception in childfree decisions

Demographic attitudes reveal a persistent gender asymmetry in how society perceives childfree decisions. While women are increasingly accepted for choosing not to have children, men face stronger societal resistance — especially in Eastern European nations. Educational attainment further influences these views, with higher-educated individuals more likely to support voluntary childlessness or view it neutrally.

Older generations, meanwhile, maintain stronger beliefs in the necessity of children for a complete life, showing a clear generational divergence in values. This divergence contributes to a broader societal conversation about identity, responsibility, and what constitutes a fulfilling life.

From overpopulation anxiety to underpopulation alarm

Globally, the fertility rate has fallen from about 5 children per woman in the 1960s to just 2.3 today. By 2100, 97% of countries will likely have fertility rates below 2.1. Only a handful of nations — including Niger, Chad, and Samoa — are expected to maintain population growth.

In contrast to past fears of overpopulation, today's demographic reality reveals a reversed concern. Population decline, particularly in aging societies like Europe and South Korea (with a fertility rate of 0.7), is projected to lead to labor shortages, slower economic growth, and increased fiscal pressure on social welfare systems.

Economic implications of a shrinking workforce and aging population

In OECD countries, the ratio of people aged 65+ to the working-age population is projected to double from 30 per 100 in 2020 to 59 by 2060. This shift demands significantly higher public spending on pensions and healthcare, while simultaneously shrinking the tax base.

This trajectory suggests a cause-and-effect relationship: declining fertility leads to an aging population, which in turn increases the economic burden on younger generations and weakens long-term growth potential. The demographic imbalance risks triggering unsustainable public finance models and slower innovation cycles due to labor scarcity.

Fertility challenges: not only about choice but also capacity

Low birth rates are not solely the result of voluntary childlessness. Infertility is also a critical, often overlooked factor. Roughly 20% of couples in developed countries face reproductive difficulties. In Spain, 9% of births occur via assisted reproductive technologies (ART); the Czech Republic follows closely with over 6%, ranking third in Europe behind Denmark.

Delayed parenthood often leads to involuntary childlessness, highlighting a feedback loop where social, economic, and biological factors compound. As the age of first-time parents increases, natural fertility rates decline, and ART becomes both more necessary and more expensive.

Preparing for a new demographic reality

Europe stands at a demographic crossroads. The convergence of voluntary childlessness, structural infertility, changing gender dynamics, and social evolution is producing a slow-moving yet profound crisis. The impact spans economic productivity, social welfare sustainability, and intergenerational cohesion.

Crucially, this is not a uniquely European phenomenon — it signals a global transformation. Without proactive and holistic policy interventions, many societies risk becoming demographically fragile. Addressing this challenge requires more than incentivizing childbirth; it demands reimagining work-life balance, gender equality, reproductive healthcare access, and societal expectations for future generations.

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Golden Gleam

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD is rebounding from the support level, currently trading at 3,331 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 24 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

Strong fundamental factors drive demand for Gold
Investors view buying on price declines as the optimal strategy in current conditions
XAUUSD forecast for 24 April 2025: 3,465

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are recovering after two days of losses. The decline was driven by rising risk appetite, following statements from Donald Trump about potentially lowering tariffs on Chinese goods and reaching a trade agreement with Beijing.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the current level of tariffs between the US and China is unsustainable and should be reduced before new talks can begin. However, he stressed that Trump has no plans to unilaterally lift tariffs on Chinese imports.

Market participants believe the bullish trend in Gold will continue unless the White House demonstrates a genuine shift in its trade policy. For now, strong fundamentals continue to support demand for Gold, with buying on dips remaining the preferred strategy.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD prices are rising within an ascending channel after rebounding confidently from the lower boundary. A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is forming on the chart, which adds to expectations of a continued upward move. The XAUUSD forecast for 24 April 2025 anticipates a minor correction towards the 3,300 USD level, followed by a rally targeting 3,465 USD.

Technical indicators support the bullish outlook, with Moving Averages pointing upwards and the Stochastic Oscillator leaving oversold territory, with a bullish crossover of %K and %D lines. A breakout above the resistance level will confirm the bullish scenario, with prices consolidating above 3,365 USD.

Summary

XAUUSD prices are recovering after their recent decline, supported by expectations of a shift in US trade policy and strong fundamentals, driving demand for Gold. Today’s XAUUSD analysis signals a high probability of continued bullish momentum, with a target at 3,465 USD, reinforced by a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and signals of technical indicators.

Source: RoboForex

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

Fundamental Overview

The USD got a boost fromthe positive Trump’s comments on China late Tuesday. We saw the bullishmomentum holding yesterday but it started to wane as disappointing news startedto filter through.

We see stronger reactionsto positive news because of overstretched positioning, so that will likelycontinue to be the case even though in the medium term, the US Dollar should keepon depreciating as the path of least resistance for the Fed remains to cutrates.

On the JPY side, thecurrency has been driven mainly by global events rather than domesticfundamentals. Alongside the Swiss Franc, it’s been the favoured safe haven inthe currencies space and will likely continue to do so.

The negative impact onthe Japanese economy from tariffs uncertainty and the downward pressure oninflation from the surging yen will keep the BoJ on the sidelines for the timebeing.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY bounced from the key 140.00 handle and pulled all the way backto the 143.50 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will havea better risk to reward setup around the major trendline to position for furtherdownside, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullishbets into the 151.00 handle next.

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a strong resistancezone around the 144.00 handle where we can find the confluenceof the previous swing levels and the minor trendline. The sellers will likelypile in around these levels with a defined risk above the trendline to positionfor a break below the 140.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will wantto see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the majortrendline next.

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keep pushing intonew highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase thebearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Source: ForexLive

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Continued downturn: Q1 2025 GDP slips into negative territory

The South Korean economy has once again entered a contraction phase, with real GDP falling by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, as reported by the Bank of Korea. This marks a return to negative growth after three consecutive quarters of modest recovery, following a downturn observed during Q3 and Q4 of 2024. This shift was sharper than expected, even as domestic and international analysts had recently downgraded their growth forecasts for the country.

The drop in GDP highlights a cause-effect relationship where declining trade performance and internal demand weakness directly impact national output. This downturn is not merely a reflection of slowed momentum but a reversal into economic shrinkage, signaling deeper structural concerns.

Trade decline as a core driver of economic contraction

Data from the Korea Customs Service underscores the fragility of South Korea’s trade-driven economy. In Q1 2025, exports declined by 1.1%, with major sectors such as chemicals, machinery, and equipment facing substantial losses. This decline correlates strongly with broader disruptions caused by intensifying global trade tensions. At the same time, imports dropped by 2.0%, largely influenced by volatile crude oil prices and shrinking energy demand.

Here, the trend in exports and GDP shows a parallel decline, indicating a robust correlation between external trade volumes and economic performance. While not all drops in exports automatically cause GDP contractions, the magnitude and concentration of this quarter's export decline—particularly in high-value sectors—exerted a tangible drag on national output.

The ripple effect of U.S. tariffs and geopolitical headwinds

One of the major external factors compounding South Korea’s economic vulnerability is the fallout from U.S. tariff hikes and protectionist trade policies. Economists suggest that these measures have triggered cascading supply chain disruptions, reduced global demand for intermediate goods, and amplified investor uncertainty.

As South Korea remains heavily dependent on exports, particularly to the U.S. and China, the indirect effects of American tariffs are becoming increasingly pronounced. Though the direct link between U.S. tariff actions and Korean GDP cannot be simplified into linear causality, the overlapping timeframes and sectoral impacts indicate a strong correlational trend, exacerbating Korea’s existing slowdown.

Persistent downside risks and cautious recovery prospects

The unexpected dip into negative growth has sparked broader concerns about South Korea’s economic trajectory in 2025. With both internal demand and external trade facing persistent headwinds, analysts are now revisiting assumptions of a mid-year rebound. The risk of entering a deeper technical recession looms if key export sectors continue to falter.

To navigate these challenges, policymakers may need to consider more aggressive fiscal stimuli or trade diversification strategies. However, the global environment—marked by protectionism, high inflation, and monetary tightening in major economies—limits the room for maneuver.

South Korea’s slip into negative growth in Q1 2025 is more than just a cyclical dip—it is a reflection of escalating external vulnerabilities and internal rigidity. The combined impact of declining exports, geopolitical trade disputes, and sluggish domestic demand is driving the economy further away from stability. Without swift and strategic intervention, the country risks entrenching itself deeper into an extended period of low growth and high uncertainty.

Source: CNBC

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

European officials say they're optimistic a trade deal can be reached with U.S. President Donald Trump, warning of significant economic harm to both Europe and the U.S. if an agreement isn't agreed and full-scale tariffs are introduced.

"I do believe an agreement can be reached, but at the same time, I do know we have lots of work that we have to do in order to get to that point," Pascal Donohoe, president of the Eurogroup and finance minister of Ireland, told CNBC on Wednesday.

"If we use the time ahead wisely, we can at least create a framework in which we can avoid measures being taken on both sides of the Atlantic that could harm ourselves, harm Europe and harm America," he said on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

The European Union and U.S. are engaged in tense negotiations to reach a trade deal so that U.S. tariffs on EU goods announced by Trump, and EU countermeasures, can be avoided.

Trump initially imposed a 20% "reciprocal" tariff on all goods coming from the EU but paused the measures for 90 days for negotiations, lowering the duty to 10% until that time. A 25% tariff on foreign cars and steel and aluminum imports remains in place.

The EU paused its retaliatory duty targeting 21 billion euros ($24.1 billion) worth of U.S. goods "to allow time and space for EU-U.S. negotiations," the European Commission said.

Talks have not yet yielded any tangible compromises or results, European officials say, and the backdrop to discussions likely soured further on Wednesday after the EU fined U.S. tech behemoths Apple and Meta hundreds of millions of euros each for breaching the bloc's digital competition laws.

The EU insists that its trade in goods and services with the U.S. is reasonably balanced. Data from the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, said the bloc had a trade surplus of 155.8 billion euros ($176.7 billion) with the U.S. for goods in 2023, but ran a 104 billion euro deficit on services. Overall, EU-U.S. trade in goods and services in 2023 was worth 1.6 trillion euros, according to the EU.

Machinery and vehicles make up the largest chunk of EU exports to the U.S. by product group, followed by chemicals, other manufactured goods and medicinal and pharmaceutical products.

Spain's Finance Minister Carlos Cuerpo told CNBC that any failure to reach a deal would be harmful for both Europe and the U.S., with more than 4 billion euros' ($5.1 billion) worth of trade in goods and services a day at stake.

"We need to engage in an open and frank conversation amongst the two sides of the Atlantic, because there's a lot to lose if we do not get into a fair and balanced agreement," Cuerpo told CNBC's Carolin Roth in Washington.

"There is this specific figure, of 4.5 billion euros on a daily basis across the Atlantic in terms of trade in goods and services — that's a treasure that we need to protect," he noted.

"It is [important] how we face these negotiations from the EU side, with an extended hand, to reach an agreement. But it has to be a fair agreement. Let's not forget that under the current situation, most of the tariffs that were imposed by the U.S. administration are already in place and affecting our companies."

Eelco Heinen, finance minister of the Netherlands, slammed tariffs as a taxation on goods that is "so bad for consumers" and would cause businesses to pause investment.

Major headwinds

On Tuesday, the IMF had warned that trade tariffs announced by President Donald Trump pose major headwinds for the U.S. and global economy in 2025.

In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook., the IMF forecast a U.S. growth outlook of 1.8% in 2025, down 0.9 percentage points from its January forecast. The fund also cut its global growth forecast to 2.8% this year, down 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimate.

The fund predicted a slight decline in the euro zone, forecasting that euro area GDP will hit 0.8% in 2025, before picking up modestly to 1.2% in 2026.

It singled out Spain as a bright spot in the region, stating its growth momentum "contrasts with the sluggish dynamics elsewhere," with the Mediterranean nation expected to expand its economy by 2.5% this year following an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the forecast made in January.

"This reflects a large carryover from better-than-expected outturns in 2024 and reconstruction activity following floods," the IMF said.

These were the fund's "reference forecasts" for global economic growth and inflation, which is based on data available as of April 4 — including the U.S.' "reciprocal" tariffs but excluding subsequent developments like the 90-day pause on higher rates.

Source: CNBC

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Political

Economic

Short-term impact of U.S. tariff policy on global economic performance

According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the sharp increase in U.S. import tariffs under President Donald Trump is fueling an environment of heightened uncertainty, which is reverberating across global markets. The U.S. economy, projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, is now expected to slow to just 1.8% in 2025. This sharp downward revision follows the announcement of tariff hikes that pushed average U.S. import duties to their highest level in a century.

The relationship between rising tariffs and lower economic growth appears to be causal. Higher import costs are eroding business competitiveness and raising domestic prices, which in turn suppresses consumer demand — a trend the IMF observed even before the latest tariffs were formally announced.

How U.S. trade policies are affecting other global economies

Major economic regions — including North America, Asia, and Europe — are increasingly vulnerable to economic shocks stemming from the U.S.'s unpredictable and unilateral trade measures. Retaliatory tariffs imposed by trading partners are further escalating tensions and triggering disruptions across global supply chains.

The IMF stresses that no region stands to gain from sustained protectionist policies. Both short-term and long-term consequences are projected to be negative. The parallel trends of rising tariffs and falling growth worldwide reflect a strong correlation, though in many cases, policy uncertainty itself is also an independent variable dragging down economic momentum.

Macroeconomic risk from political interference in monetary policy

In addition to trade measures, political pressure on the Federal Reserve is adding to the volatility. President Trump recently criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and pushed for rate cuts, despite inflation being projected to rise. The IMF has now revised its inflation forecast for the U.S. to 3% in 2025, up from the previous 2%.

Cutting interest rates under rising inflation and higher tariffs could provide a short-term boost in demand but may also deepen inflationary pressures. The link between policy instability and inflation expectations shows a strong correlation, as both investment and consumption behaviors are shaped by shifting expectations.

Strategic outlook: Restoring trade clarity through multilateral cooperation

The IMF underscores that the path to recovery lies in de-escalating trade tensions and forging clear, stable trade agreements. Rebuilding trust in the global trading system is crucial to sustaining economic growth, especially as economies remain fragile in the post-shock recovery phase.

In a press briefing, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized that the world may be entering a "new era," where long-standing global economic frameworks are being redefined. But to avoid a prolonged cycle of protectionism, major economies must implement consistent and cooperative trade policies.

As the global economy struggles to regain stability, the U.S.'s aggressive trade measures and pressure on central bank independence are undermining macroeconomic confidence. The ripple effects of rising tariffs extend beyond immediate trade impacts, weakening the very foundations of global growth. The IMF’s warning is clear: without swift policy adjustments, the current direction could backfire on the U.S. economy and jeopardize fragile global recovery efforts.

Source: Reuters

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The dollar took a breather on Thursday, following a sharp bounce after U.S. PresidentDonald Trumpbacked away from threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his administration opened the door to a softer stance on China tariffs.

After dipping below 140 yen on Tuesday, the dollar has rebounded off major chart support and was last at 142.75 yenon Thursday.

It caught an extra boost when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. did not have a specific currency target in mind, ahead of talks with his Japanese counterpart. Bessent has also said the current de-facto embargo on U.S.-China trade was unsustainable, while cautioning that the U.S. would not move first in lowering its levies of more than 100% on Chinese goods.

The dollar has recovered from a 3-1/2 year low of $1.1572 per euro, but encountered a little selling in the Asia morning to steady around $1.1338.

It is clear, by now, that no other currency is as sensitive to trade headlines as the dollar, said ING currency strategist Francesco Pesole in a note to clients.

"We still think the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside for USD in the near term, but we don't expect a repetition of the one-way traffic in dollar selling we have witnessed of late," he said.

"That said, EUR/USD remains almost entirely a function of USD moves. And another leg higher above $1.15 remains possible should fears about the Fed's independence take centre stage again."

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were similarly off recent peaks - although not all that much.

The Aussie, after briefly breaching $0.64 this week, was at $0.6355 and Commonwealth Bank strategist Joe Capurso said it could test resistance around its 50-day moving average at $0.6286 as worries about global growth persist.

The New Zealand dollarheld on at $0.5951.

Sterlingand the Swiss franceach steadied after a sharp retreat, leaving sterling at $1.3263 and the Swissy at 0.8290 per dollar.

China's yuanwas a touch weaker at 7.2980 per dollar.

In crypto markets, bitcoin has followed U.S. stocks and run higher even against a rebounding dollar. It hovered at $92,732 in Asia. Trump's meme coin surged overnight after the online promotion of a gala dinner with the president for the top 220 buyers of the $TRUMP coin.