New START Treaty Dies, Leaving a Nuclear Void

The world entered a new era of geopolitical uncertainty on Thursday as the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the United States and Russia, officially expired. The treaty's final active day was February 4, leaving no formal limits on the nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest atomic powers.

While hopes for a replacement agreement persist, there are currently no intensive, legally binding international arms control talks underway.

The Clock Runs Out on a Landmark Arms Pact

Russian state media confirmed the treaty's expiration on Thursday. According to a report from TASS, a proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2025 to continue observing the treaty’s quantitative limits for another year went unanswered by Washington.

With no provision for another formal extension like the one in 2021, the agreement regulating strategic stability between the US and Russia has now passed into history. As of February 5, both nations are technically free to expand their nuclear stockpiles without restriction.

A 1971 photo of the Licorne nuclear test in French Polynesia illustrates the destructive power at the heart of now-expired arms control treaties.

Secret Talks Hint at an Informal Extension

Despite the official expiration, last-ditch diplomatic efforts have been happening behind the scenes. An Axios report on Thursday revealed that the US and Russia are nearing a deal to continue observing the treaty's terms, citing three sources familiar with the discussions.

A US official confirmed the effort, stating, "We agreed with Russia to operate in good faith and to start a discussion about ways it could be updated."

The report noted that these negotiations took place in Abu Dhabi over the last 24 hours. However, sources cautioned that any draft plan would still require final approval from both presidents. For now, the two sides appear to have an informal understanding to abide by New START's terms for another six months, but this arrangement is not legally binding.

Why Washington Let the Treaty Expire: The China Factor

The White House's rationale for allowing New START to lapse was clarified in a Wednesday statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He emphasized the need to include China in any future arms control framework.

"Obviously, the president's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile," Rubio stated.

This position reflects a long-standing complaint from the Trump administration, which has consistently argued that existing arms control agreements are insufficient without China's participation.