Majority of Economists Expect Bank of Japan to Raise Rates in Q4

Economic

Summary:

A Reuters poll reveals that most economists anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points in the October-December quarter, despite expectations for U.S. rate cuts...

BOJ’s Rate Hike Likely in Q4

According to a Reuters poll conducted from September 2 to 9, a majority of economists now expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2025. While two-thirds of economists held this view a month ago, the latest poll showed a slight decrease in this expectation. Despite markets anticipating U.S. rate cuts next week, 93% of analysts indicated that this would not delay the BOJ's move toward slightly tighter monetary conditions.

The poll found that 55% of respondents, or 36 out of 66 economists, forecast the BOJ will raise its benchmark rate from 0.50% to 0.75% by the end of the year. This is a decrease from 63% in the previous month’s poll but in line with the 54% prediction in July. While most analysts expect no change at the BOJ’s September 18-19 policy meeting, a rate hike is considered more likely in the upcoming quarter.

Factors Driving Potential Rate Hike

Economists believe the BOJ is likely to tighten its monetary stance due to the risks posed by the accelerating depreciation of the yen and the potential for asset bubbles. Atsushi Takeda, Chief Economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute, noted that the BOJ might act to address these issues, particularly if the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on trade data and Japan's "tankan" survey becomes clearer.

BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino has emphasized that, while the central bank should continue raising interest rates, global economic uncertainty remains a concern. Additionally, the likelihood of further rate hikes could be influenced by Japan’s upcoming political transition. If fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi becomes the next Prime Minister, the chances of additional rate hikes may diminish significantly.

In terms of inflation, more than three-quarters of economists did not expect next year’s labor-management negotiations to result in wage increases exceeding the 5.25% rise seen this year. Economists anticipate that growth will remain around 5%, which should allow the BOJ to maintain its "virtuous cycle" of wages and prices.

Despite global uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies impacting Japanese corporate profits, economists are largely forecasting a rate hike from the BOJ in Q4, as the central bank responds to domestic economic risks, including the yen’s depreciation and potential asset inflation.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Rapid Growth in Coffee Trade

According to the Khmer Times, in the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam exported nearly 1.1 million tons of coffee, valued at over $6 billion, marking an 8% increase in volume and a 66% increase in value from the same period last year. Remarkably, the export value during this period already surpassed Vietnam’s total coffee exports to Cambodia in 2024, which stood at $5.5 billion.

Vietnamese Customs reported that coffee exports to Cambodia in July alone reached 713 tons, valued at $2.7 million, representing a 406% increase in volume and a 460% increase in value year-on-year. From January to July, total exports hit 2,231 tons, worth $10 million, up 78% in volume and 114% in value compared to last year.

Drivers of Growth

Businesses attribute this surge to the steady expansion of Vietnam–Cambodia trade, which exceeded $10 billion in 2024 and surpassed $7 billion in the first seven months of 2025. Vietnamese products are favored in Cambodia for their quality and competitive pricing. Recent supply disruptions in Cambodia have further opened opportunities for Vietnam’s coffee sector to strengthen its market presence. Shared history and the 1,158 km border between the two nations also facilitate trade flows.

During a meeting between Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin on September 1, 2025, Vietnam proposed enhancing transport connectivity, simplifying border procedures, and creating favorable conditions for businesses, aiming to reach $20 billion in bilateral trade.

Vietnam’s Trade Counselor to Cambodia, Đỗ Việt Phương, emphasized that the two economies are highly complementary, with significant potential in exports and imports to achieve the $20 billion trade target set by both governments.

Business Coordination Efforts

To capitalize on this momentum, the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade and Cambodia’s Ministry of Commerce co-hosted the Vietnam–Cambodia Business Connection Conference in Phnom Penh in late August 2025. Vietnam encouraged deeper ties with local associations, distribution networks, and importers, while addressing technical barriers to ensure smoother and more balanced trade.

Nguyễn Nam Hải, President of the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (VICOFA), highlighted that from October 2024 to July 2025, Vietnam exported 1.35 million tons of coffee worth $7.5 billion, reflecting a nearly 57% increase in value despite a slight decline in volume.

Vietnam’s coffee sector is clearly leveraging both regional demand growth and strategic government initiatives to consolidate its presence in the Cambodian market.

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Forex

Economic

What happened in the U.S session?

The overnight U.S. session was dominated by stronger-than-expected inflation data and robust employment figures, which have fundamentally shifted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. The U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, Treasury yields spiked, and equity markets showed mixed but generally negative reactions. The data suggests the U.S. economy remains resilient, potentially allowing the Fed to take a more measured approach to future rate cuts, contrasting with the more dovish stance from the ECB in Europe. This divergence in central bank policies is likely to continue influencing currency markets and cross-border capital flows in the coming sessions.

What does it mean for the Asia sessions?

Thursday, September 11, 2025, represents a critical juncture for Asian markets, with the ECB rate decision and US inflation data serving as primary catalysts. The confluence of dovish central bank policies, Chinese economic stabilization efforts, and ongoing trade tensions creates a complex trading environment favoring defensive positioning while monitoring for opportunities in undervalued assets. Traders should remain particularly attentive to currency volatility and safe-haven flows as monetary policy divergence accelerates globally.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

The US dollar enters Thursday, September 11, 2025, under significant pressure as markets await critical CPI inflation data that will shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. With rate cut odds near 90% for the upcoming FOMC meeting, the dollar faces headwinds from dovish Fed policy, weakening labor market conditions, and reduced safe-haven demand due to easing trade tensions. Today’s inflation release at 12:30 PM represents a crucial inflection point that could either provide temporary dollar relief through stronger-than-expected readings or accelerate the currency’s decline if data support aggressive Fed easing.Central Bank Notes:

● The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its meeting on July 29–30, 2025, keeping policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.

● The Committee reiterated its objective of achieving maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. While uncertainty around the economic outlook has diminished since earlier in the year, the Committee notes that challenges remain and continued vigilance is warranted.

● Policymakers remain highly attentive to risks on both sides of their dual mandate. The unemployment rate remains low, near 4.2%–4.5%, and labor market conditions are described as solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, with the PCE price index at 2.6% and a core inflation forecast of 3.1% for year-end 2025, up from earlier projections; tariff-related pressures are cited as a contributing factor.

● The Committee acknowledged that recent economic activity has expanded at a solid pace, with second-quarter annualized growth estimates near 2.4%. However, GDP growth for 2025 has been revised downward to 1.4% (from 1.7% projected in March), reflecting expectations of a slowdown in the coming quarters.

● In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5% in 2025, and headline PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% for the year, with core PCE at 3.1%. Policymakers continue to anticipate that inflation will moderate gradually, with ongoing risks from tariffs and global conditions.

● The Committee reaffirmed its data-dependent and risk-aware approach to future policy decisions. Officials stated they are prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede progress toward the Fed’s goals.

● As previously outlined, the Committee continues the measured run-off of its securities holdings. The pace of balance sheet reduction, which slowed since April (monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25B to $5B, while holding agency MBS cap steady at $35B), was left unchanged this month to support orderly market functioning and financial conditions.

● The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Gold’s position heading into Thursday, September 11, 2025, reflects a convergence of powerful fundamental drivers: near-certain Fed rate cuts, persistent geopolitical tensions, aggressive central bank accumulation, and broad-based dollar weakness. The critical CPI release and ECB decision today will provide fresh catalysts for a market already positioned for continued strength. With technical targets pointing toward $3,700-$3,800, gold’s record-breaking rally shows little sign of exhaustion as structural demand from central banks and institutional investors provides sustained support for higher prices.Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar enters Thursday, September 11, 2025, on a solid footing despite global headwinds. Key supportive factors include better-than-expected GDP growth, improved trade surplus figures, and reduced expectations for aggressive RBA rate cuts. However, challenges persist from China’s manufacturing weakness, elevated unemployment, and fragile consumer confidence. The currency’s near-term direction will likely depend on upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy decisions, as well as any further developments in China’s economic trajectory.Central Bank Notes:

● The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its September meeting on 8–9 September 2025, following a 25 basis point reduction at the August meeting. This maintains a cautious yet supportive stance, with the decision largely anticipated given recent evidence of inflation settling within the target band.

● Inflation readings continue to ease, with headline CPI most likely tracking near 2.1–2.3%—comfortably within the 2–3% target range. September quarter figures are pending, but leading indicators show further moderation in non-housing components, even as insurance and housing-related costs remain sticky.

● The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.7%–2.9%, further reflecting progress toward the midpoint of the target range. Energy and food volatility still create some short-term uncertainty, but underlying inflation is broadly on track.

● Global conditions are a key source of risk. While U.S.–EU trade tensions have stabilized slightly, volatility in equities and commodities persists, with uncertainty feeding through to Australia’s trade and export outlook.

● Domestic demand shows tentative improvement. Real household incomes and a stabilizing housing sector have underpinned modest consumption growth, though business investment remains uneven—service sectors outperforming manufacturing and construction.

● Labour market tightness persists, but momentum continues to slow from earlier in the year. Employment gains remain, but job vacancies and hiring intentions have softened, with underutilization rising marginally for the second straight month.

● Wage growth has slowed in line with easing labour pressures, but unit labour costs remain elevated due to weak productivity. The RBA continues to flag subdued productivity as a medium-term cost risk.

● Forward indicators suggest household consumption may be softer than previously forecast. Elevated rents and high borrowing costs are dampening discretionary spending, despite modest income recovery.

● The Board continues to highlight the risk that household spending could underperform, potentially weighing on business investment and job creation if confidence remains subdued.

● Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, in line with greater inflation control and ongoing economic rebalancing. The decision to hold rates recognizes both progress and ongoing uncertainties, with future moves explicitly tied to incoming data.

● The Reserve Bank reinforced its goals of price stability and full employment, stating readiness to adjust policy if economic or inflation outcomes diverge from baseline projections.

● The next meeting is on 29 to 30 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand Dollar enters September 11, 2025, in a consolidative phase following the RBNZ’s dovish August pivot. While the central bank’s aggressive easing bias and New Zealand’s economic challenges create headwinds, supportive Chinese data and expectations for Fed rate cuts provide some stabilization. The currency’s near-term direction will likely depend on global risk sentiment, Chinese economic indicators, and US inflation data releases. Technical levels around 0.5915-0.5925 remain critical for determining whether the NZD can maintain its recent recovery or faces renewed selling pressure toward 0.5765-0.5785 support zones.Central Bank Notes:

● The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.

● Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.

● Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint..

● Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.

● Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.

● GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.

● The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.

● Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.

● The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen on September 11, 2025, finds itself at a critical juncture driven by multiple competing forces. Rate hike expectations have provided underlying support, with markets increasingly convinced the Bank of Japan will act before year-end. However, political uncertainty following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation and global monetary policy divergence continue to create volatility. The completion of the Japan-US trade deal has removed a significant economic headwind, while core inflation remaining above the BoJ’s target supports the case for policy normalization.Central Bank Notes:

● The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31 July, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:

● The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.

● The BOJ will maintain its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases will, in principle, continue to decrease by about ¥400 billion each quarter from January to March 2026, and by about ¥200 billion each quarter from April to June 2026 onward, targeting a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.

● Japan’s economy is experiencing a moderate recovery overall, though some sectors remain sluggish. Overseas economies are generally growing moderately, but recent trade policies in major economies have introduced pockets of weakness. Exports and industrial production in Japan are essentially flat, with any uptick largely driven by front-loaded demand ahead of U.S. tariff increases.

● On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. This reflects continued wage pass-through, previous import cost surges, and further increases in food prices, particularly rice. Expectations for future inflation have begun to rise moderately.

● The effects of the earlier import price and food cost increases are expected to fade during the outlook period. There may be a temporary stagnation in core inflation as overall growth momentum softens.

● Looking forward, the economy is likely to see a slower growth pace in the near term as overseas economies feel the pinch of ongoing global trade policies, putting downward pressure on Japanese corporate profits. Accommodative financial conditions are expected to buffer these headwinds somewhat. In the medium term, as global growth recovers, Japan’s growth rate is also expected to improve.

● With renewed economic expansion, intensifying labor shortages, and a steady rise in medium- to long-term expected inflation rates, core inflation is projected to gradually pick up. By the latter half of the BOJ’s projection period, inflation is forecast to move in line with the 2% price stability target.

● There are multiple risks to the outlook, with especially elevated uncertainty regarding the future path of global trade policies and overseas price trends. The BOJ will continue to closely monitor their impact on financial and foreign exchange markets, as well as on Japan’s economy and inflation.

● The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bearish

Oil

The oil market on Thursday, September 11, 2025, reflects a delicate balance between bullish geopolitical factors and bearish fundamental pressures. While Israel’s strike in Qatar and ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions provide short-term price support, the underlying market structure points to oversupply concerns. OPEC+’s more cautious production approach and unexpected US inventory builds highlight the challenge of managing supply in a potentially saturated market. Further geopolitical developments in the Middle East, OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory data releases, and the impact of Trump administration policies on global trade and energy flows.Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Source: IC Markets

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Economic

Stimulus Plan and Key Objectives

South Korea’s Minister of Economy and Finance, Koo Yun-cheol, announced that an additional 7 trillion won will be allocated to public institutions in the second half of 2025 to stimulate investment and support growth during the ongoing recession. The policy focuses on three main areas: responding to economic cycles, improving citizens’ living standards, and stabilizing consumer prices, particularly essential goods like food ahead of the Chuseok holiday.

According to Statistics Korea, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-on-year in August, the lowest increase in nine months. Minister Koo emphasized the government’s plan to implement comprehensive support measures to protect vulnerable groups and curb inflation on essential living costs. Although CPI appears to be cooling, statisticians caution that this may be temporary; without a sharp decline in mobile phone charges, inflation could have reached 2.3% in August.

Structural Reforms and Budget Authority

The press briefing followed the government’s announcement of a major restructuring plan, under which the Ministry of Economy and Finance will no longer hold budget-planning authority. Instead, a new fiscal agency under the Prime Minister’s Office will take on this responsibility. Minister Koo reassured the public that the ministry and the new agency will work synergistically to avoid policy overlap.

To stabilize the housing market, the government plans to construct 1.35 million new apartments between 2026 and 2030, including 270,000 units per year in the Seoul metropolitan area. Minister Koo highlighted that speed of supply is critical. Meanwhile, discussions with the U.S. on exchange rates and tariffs are ongoing, and any adjustments to property-related taxes will be carefully considered based on housing market trends.

ConclusionSouth Korea’s decision to inject over VND 133 trillion into the economy underscores the government’s commitment to tackling the recession, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and supporting citizens’ living standards, while laying the foundation for long-term sustainable development in strategic areas such as public investment and real estate.

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Forex

U.S. Dollar Movement and Inflation Signals

The dollar index edged slightly higher to 97.822, marking its third consecutive day of gains. The increase follows the Labor Department’s report showing that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.1% in August, reversing some of the prior month’s 0.7% jump. Currency strategists interpret the soft PPI reading as a signal that inflationary pressures remain moderate, bolstering market expectations for a rate cut from the Fed. Currently, traders see a near certainty for a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming September meeting, while an 8% chance exists for a larger 50-basis-point move.

The Fed’s rate-setting decisions remain in focus amid political developments. The Trump administration is appealing a federal court ruling that temporarily blocked the firing of Governor Lisa Cook, aiming to influence policy before the September meeting. Meanwhile, Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee, though uncertainty remains whether he will participate in time. These developments add a layer of political risk to expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Global Currency Reactions

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar remained flat at 147.41 yen, as Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, indicating persistent inflation pressures. The euro strengthened slightly to $1.1698 ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. Geopolitical tensions, including Poland’s interception of suspected Russian drones, are contributing to cautious sentiment in Europe.

Commodity-linked currencies also showed movements: the Australian dollar climbed to $0.66165, supported by gains in iron ore, crude oil, and gold prices, while the offshore yuan strengthened to 7.1184 per dollar. The New Zealand dollar fell marginally to $0.59375, and sterling remained steady at $1.3527.

Markets are positioning for dovish signals from major central banks as inflation readings remain moderate and global uncertainties persist. Investors are closely watching consumer price data in the U.S. and upcoming policy statements in Europe and Japan, which will likely shape currency and rate expectations in the near term.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Mexico’s Tariff Move and Rationale

President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled a set of import taxes targeting products from China, South Korea, Thailand, India, the Philippines, and Indonesia, covering goods such as vehicles, auto parts, electronics, textiles, shoes, plastics, and toys. The tariffs, which will apply to about 8.6% of Mexico’s total imports from non-free-trade partners, are intended to strengthen domestic production while indirectly offsetting the impact of U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods, particularly in the automotive sector, which represents 23% of national manufacturing output.

Currently, the products affected already carry an average tariff of 16%, which will now rise to the maximum allowed under international trade agreements. China stands to be the most impacted, given Mexico imported $130 billion of Chinese products in 2024, second only to U.S. imports. The Mexican government emphasizes that these tariffs are consistent with international trade rules, distinguishing them from the punitive measures imposed by the U.S. that have targeted Mexican steel, aluminum, and automotive exports.

Diplomatic Implications

While some analysts, including Oscar Ocampo from the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, suggest the new tariffs could enhance Mexico’s negotiating position with Washington, the ultimate effect remains uncertain. The Mexican administration insists the move is designed to stimulate domestic production and counter goods sold below market prices, rather than respond to direct U.S. pressure. China has formally opposed the restrictions, arguing they violate its legitimate rights and are unjustly coercive.

Mexico continues to navigate a complex trade environment, balancing domestic industrial protection with diplomatic relations. The new tariffs come as Mexico, the U.S., and Canada prepare to revise their trilateral free trade agreement, and they may play a role in easing the U.S.-imposed automotive tariffs. By taking a stance rooted in international guidelines, Mexico signals its intent to safeguard domestic interests while maintaining credibility in multilateral trade negotiations.

Source: AP

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Commodity

Oil Markets Pause After Recent Gains

Brent crude edged up just 1 cent to $67.50 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 2 cents to $63.69. The modest movement follows Wednesday’s rally, which was driven by Israel’s strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar and Poland’s interception of Russian drones over its territory. Despite these geopolitical flashpoints, neither event posed an immediate threat to global oil supplies, and markets refocused on underlying economic fundamentals.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicated a 3.9 million barrel increase in crude inventories for the week ending September 5, against expectations of a 1 million barrel draw. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts. Rising stockpiles, combined with falling producer prices and softening labor market conditions, signal a slowdown in U.S. demand and broader economic activity, tempering oil price gains despite geopolitical anxieties.

Monetary Policy Influences Market Outlook

Economic indicators suggesting a cooling U.S. economy have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a 25 basis point rate cut at its upcoming mid-September meeting, with analysts noting a small possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut. Such monetary easing could further impact oil demand indirectly by affecting economic growth and consumption. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rates, providing stability but limited stimulus to energy markets.

While attacks in the Middle East and military incidents in Poland had previously spurred short-term volatility, the current flat oil prices reflect a market increasingly focused on structural factors: oversupply concerns and weakening U.S. demand. Investors appear to be weighing immediate geopolitical risk against the longer-term implications of a softening global economy, underscoring how complex and interconnected energy markets have become.

In essence, oil markets are in a holding pattern where geopolitical shocks may create temporary spikes, but broader economic trends, inventory levels, and monetary policy expectations are the dominant factors influencing price stability.