Iran Bypasses U.S. Sanctions with Record Oil Sales to China, Draining Half Its Stockpile in Just Over a Month

Economic

Summary:

Despite intensified U.S. sanctions, Iran’s oil exports to China surged to 1.68 million barrels per day in August 2025 the highest since renewed sanctions draining half its floating storage and reinforcing China’s strategic role in sustaining Iran’s $400 billion economy...

Iran’s Sanction Resistance Strategy: Oil Flows Unabated to China

Against the backdrop of Washington’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign, Iran has demonstrated a calculated and effective workaround. According to Kpler data, Iranian oil deliveries to Chinese ports surged by 23% in August 2025 compared to July, reaching 1.68 million barrels per day. This marks the highest level since Donald Trump returned to the White House and reinstated a more aggressive sanctions regime.

The spike in exports has had immediate logistical consequences: Iran’s floating oil storage off the Asian coast largely near Malaysia fell from 30 million barrels in early August to just 15 million barrels by September 7. This drain, equivalent to half of Iran’s offshore reserves, highlights the effectiveness of Tehran’s strategy to keep oil revenues flowing despite sanctions.

Persistent Flows Despite U.S. Crackdown

The Biden-era relaxation of enforcement gave way in 2025 to a tougher posture. Since January, the U.S. has sanctioned 127 tankers along with various companies and individuals involved in transporting Iranian oil. Yet, these punitive measures have failed to slow the flow of crude to China, which imported an average of 1.45 million barrels per day from Iran during the first eight months of 2025 an increase from the previous year.

This divergence between sanctions intent and actual trade flows reveals a key limitation: the absence of Chinese cooperation. Without Beijing’s support, Washington’s capacity to isolate Iran’s energy exports appears significantly diminished. This reveals a causative gap between unilateral sanctions and enforcement efficacy when global buyers act in defiance.

Strategic Incentives Behind China’s Oil Purchases

China’s motivation is not driven solely by economics, though the pricing advantage is notable. Iranian crude is typically discounted by $4–6 per barrel compared to global benchmarks, making it financially attractive for Chinese refiners.

However, the timing of the surge in imports suggests broader geopolitical alignment. In parallel with oil trade, President Xi Jinping hosted a high-profile summit that included Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, Russian and North Korean leaders, and other nations at odds with U.S. foreign policy. The oil trade, therefore, also serves as a strategic lever both as a symbol of resistance and a means of maintaining influence in the energy-dominated corridors of the Middle East.

China’s role in sustaining Iran’s economy is underscored by the structure of the bilateral trade model. Through mechanisms resembling oil-for-goods bartering, Iran secures critical imports while China consolidates its influence in Tehran’s economic machinery.

The Role of Oil and Gas in Sustaining a $400 Billion Economy

Iran’s total economic output, estimated at over $400 billion by the IMF, remains heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. In addition to crude oil, Iran’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports are also rising. Despite the U.S. blacklisting nine LPG carriers, Iran exported 1.1 million tonnes of LPG in August, with China accounting for roughly 80% of that volume.

This mutually reinforcing relationship ensures that China now represents more than a quarter of Iran’s total export revenues. The economic linkage goes far beyond energy: it extends into manufacturing, electronics, machinery, and a range of dual-use goods that support Iran’s industrial base.

Geopolitical Implications of Resilient Oil Trade

The surge in oil flows also signals a failure of Washington’s core sanctions objective: to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. That goal remains unmet, and may in fact be growing increasingly unrealistic given the rise of an alternative economic axis centered around China and non-aligned powers.

The strategic consequence is a growing bifurcation in the global trade system. As U.S. sanctions aim to isolate adversaries, countries like Iran find alternative economic patrons. For Tehran, Beijing is not merely a buyer it is a partner enabling economic survival, infrastructure development, and strategic leverage.

This creates a correlation, if not yet a full causal transformation, in how nations respond to U.S.-led economic pressure. The more aggressive the enforcement, the stronger the alignment among sanctioned states and their supporters, accelerating the erosion of dollar-centric trade dominance.

Iran’s ability to sell nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day to China amid severe sanctions is a vivid example of geopolitical and economic realignment. The rapid depletion of offshore storage and sustained export momentum show that, absent coordinated global enforcement, even the most sophisticated sanctions regimes can be circumvented.

More critically, the growing partnership between Tehran and Beijing rooted in discounted energy, mutual defiance of U.S. pressure, and strategic alignment has positioned China as the lifeline of Iran’s $400 billion economy. This evolution not only challenges the effectiveness of American sanctions policy but also reshapes the power dynamics of global energy markets.

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Economic

Rising Appeal of ASEAN in the Shifting Global Landscape

Southeast Asia is increasingly recognized as a strategic frontier for global investment, particularly amid rising economic uncertainty in more developed markets. The region’s demographic advantages, including a youthful population and an expanding middle class, are becoming powerful growth drivers. These internal factors, when aligned with political efforts to boost regional cooperation, present a compelling case for ASEAN as a new economic nucleus.

With over 670 million inhabitants, ASEAN holds one of the largest consumer bases globally, and a significant portion of this population is under 35. This demographic not only drives consumption but also forms the foundation for future economic productivity. Leaders like Mr. Wang Shuguang from China International Capital Corporation emphasized the growing importance of ASEAN in China’s global expansion strategies, attributing it to the region’s promising economic growth and massive retail market. Similarly, Ms. Esther Wong from 3C AGI Partners highlighted how demographic structure contributes to a large, scalable market though she warned that inconsistent data standards remain a constraint for leveraging technologies like AI.

Political Will and Long-Term Regional Vision

Despite cultural, regulatory, and linguistic differences, ASEAN nations are advancing initiatives such as ASEAN Vision 2045. This plan commits to simplifying administrative procedures and reducing mobility barriers among member states. It includes proposals to expand existing travel agreements and foster more seamless economic activity, which are seen as prerequisites for unlocking the region’s full integration potential.

Former ASEAN Deputy Secretary-General Michael Tene emphasized the necessity of phased implementation, suggesting that integration accelerates when economic needs become more pressing. This response-led approach underlines a reactive rather than predictive logic, where alignment among member states emerges more quickly during periods of shared challenge.

Challenges of Fragmentation and Infrastructure Gaps

While ASEAN’s attractiveness is growing, fragmentation in legal systems and data regulations continues to hinder the seamless execution of regional strategies. For instance, data transfer protocols vary significantly across countries, complicating the operations of AI-driven and tech-heavy businesses. Ms. Wong further observed that private banks are adapting by prioritizing long-term relationship building and helping clients navigate local supply chains and legal landscapes.

Another concern is the uneven development of physical and digital infrastructure. Although digital transformation is gaining momentum, especially in urban areas, rural regions remain under-connected, limiting the scalability of certain investment models. Investors require consistent regulatory environments and interoperable systems to justify long-term commitments.

Call for Strategic Alignment Across Sectors

Executives like Mr. Edmund Lee from Gold Peak Technology stressed the need to synchronize talent, capital, and innovation across borders. He pointed out that while market receptivity is strong, structural enablers such as improved data governance and integrated infrastructure are essential to maintain momentum.

What emerges is a pattern where demographic trends and government ambition are creating strong correlates of economic opportunity, but without regulatory harmonization and investment in cross-border systems, the causal pathway to regional leadership remains constrained.

A New Investment Frontier with Conditions

From a global investor’s perspective, ASEAN presents a dual reality. On one hand, it is a region rich in human capital and potential; on the other, it is a fragmented market that demands nuanced navigation. For ASEAN to become a global production and innovation hub, consistency in policy and institutional coordination will be vital.

In the context of aging populations and market saturation in Europe, Japan, and North America, Southeast Asia stands out not only for its demographic promise but also for its adaptability. Yet only when legal transparency and regional interoperability are addressed can ASEAN truly secure its place as a sustainable and resilient investment epicenter.

Southeast Asia is emerging as a fertile ground for long-term investment due to its demographic dynamics and increasing political will toward integration. However, to move from potential to performance, the region must confront and resolve structural inconsistencies. This transition if successful will not only elevate ASEAN’s global position but also reshape global investment flows in the decades ahead.

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Record Surge in Japanese Investment to the United States

In the first seven months of 2025, nearly half of Japan’s outbound investment capital was funneled into the US, a historical peak not seen in a decade. According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, total foreign direct investment (FDI) reached 55.89 trillion yen, with 26.18 trillion yen (approximately 177 billion USD) directed toward the American economy marking a 20% year-over-year increase. This expansion signifies a pivotal shift in Japan’s investment strategy, heavily favoring the US market over traditional regional partners.

This sharp uptick encompasses a wide range of sectors including steel, energy, semiconductors, automotive recycling, and pharmaceuticals. The rise in deal volume is underscored by major acquisitions, such as Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel and Toyota Tsusho’s $900 million acquisition in automotive recycling. Manufacturing presence is also expanding: Hitachi Energy announced over $1 billion in new investment, and brands like Toto and Nissei Plastic Industrial have launched or are launching production plants in the US.

The Trump Factor: Political Conditions Driving Economic Commitments

A critical force shaping this investment trajectory is a high-stakes political agreement forged directly under the oversight of former President Donald Trump. A newly signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Japan and the US pledges Japanese investment totaling $550 billion across American industries, primarily in energy, semiconductors, and healthcare. However, the MOU is not legally binding and places Tokyo in a subordinate, reactive role.

Notably, all investment proposals are vetted by a US-only investment committee, with final approval granted by Trump himself. In return, Japan is promised lower automobile import tariffs. The structure creates a conditional environment, where failure to meet timelines particularly by 2029, coinciding with the end of a potential Trump term could prompt retaliatory tariffs.

This arrangement reflects a tenuous balance of power. Though Japan retains a voice through a bilateral consultation mechanism, its advisory nature limits Tokyo’s influence. Japan’s leverage in project selection is subject to US political discretion, casting doubt on long-term autonomy in capital deployment.

Reallocation of Capital: Shifting Away from China and Mexico

Japan’s pivot toward the US has directly impacted its engagement with other regions. Investment in Mexico dropped 21% during the same seven-month period, as Japanese firms grow wary of Trump-era tariffs that would increase export costs. Likewise, Japanese capital inflows into China fell by 6%, extending a four-quarter contraction amid ongoing concerns over the US-China trade conflict and mounting national security restrictions.

This shift reveals a cause-and-effect chain: the fear of protectionist policies, particularly under unpredictable leadership, has compelled Japan to consolidate investment in more politically negotiated yet economically promising zones even when production costs in the US remain significantly higher.

Structural Support in the US and Rising Financial Risks

Despite elevated input and material costs, Japan’s continued expansion is buoyed by US support in land access, utility infrastructure, and non-recourse lending structures. These non-recourse loans limit creditor claims to the project’s collateral assets, reducing corporate liability and encouraging bolder investment behavior. However, the structure offers little protection if political tides turn or projects lose favor with the administration.

Should Japan decline to fund a project favored by Trump, the risk of revived tariffs looms large. This political caveat transforms strategic investment into a diplomatic gamble, where financial risk correlates strongly with US policy shifts rather than solely with market fundamentals.

Navigating Opportunity Amid Vulnerability

While Japan maintains its status as the largest investor in the US totaling $819.2 billion in cumulative FDI as of the end of 2024 the future of this dominance is no longer insulated from geopolitics. Unlike traditional investment flows governed by corporate strategy and market logic, this new wave is increasingly shaped by political alignment and deal-based diplomacy.

The investment surge signals both opportunity and vulnerability. On one hand, Japanese firms benefit from closer ties to a key export destination and gain footholds in critical infrastructure projects. On the other, the conditionality embedded in the agreement introduces asymmetric dependence on US policymaking particularly under a leadership known for volatility and protectionist rhetoric.

Japan’s bold investment expansion into the US is not merely a product of economic foresight but also a reflection of strategic compromise. The nation has positioned itself to secure tariff benefits and industrial access but at the cost of diminished control over its own capital direction. This realignment is emblematic of a broader global trend, where traditional economic decision-making is increasingly entangled with political calculus. For Tokyo, the path forward in the US market promises growth but only under the shadow of geopolitical uncertainty.

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Commodity

Unusual Market Behavior Defies Conventional Expectations

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, markets have displayed behavior that challenges standard economic logic. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, described the period post-Jackson Hole as “super strange,” focusing on the lack of consistent reactions across asset classes. While Powell’s dovish tone typically would weaken the dollar, rally equities, and lift commodities, only gold exhibited such expected behavior.

The yellow metal surged nearly 10%, reaching a record $3,680.70 per ounce, in contrast to the more muted or contradictory movements across other markets. Stocks rebounded moderately on the back of cooling inflation data, but the US dollar and bond yields showed signs of internal friction rather than clarity.

Bond Yields and Dollar Signal Structural Dissonance

One of the most puzzling developments was the delayed reaction in the 30-year US Treasury yield. It remained elevated until a sharply disappointing jobs report forced a correction. This disconnect where even Fed-friendly signals fail to move yields immediately suggests that broader fears, such as fiscal sustainability or external shocks, may be anchoring expectations.

Similarly, the US Dollar Index returned to its pre-Jackson Hole level despite earlier volatility. Given the market’s usual pattern of weakening the dollar in anticipation of rate cuts, this “paradox,” as Brooks calls it, raises concerns over deeper shifts in risk perception.

Gold As A Final Haven While Bitcoin Falters

A significant insight from Brooks’ analysis is the reassertion of gold as a primary safe-haven asset. While Bitcoin initially sold off and later retraced, its high volatility and speculative nature rendered it unsuitable during periods of heightened political pressure on the Fed. In contrast, gold’s surge suggests that investors are reverting to historically trusted stores of value amid systemic uncertainty.

This behavioral shift implies not merely a temporary trade but a possible rebalancing of portfolio strategies, prioritizing stability over risk-based speculation. While there is a correlation between rate-cut expectations and gold’s rally, the key driver seems to be the perceived erosion in central bank independence and macroeconomic discipline rather than a straightforward cause-effect mechanism.

European Political Risks Reinforce Dollar Stability

Beyond US borders, the situation in Europe has amplified the flight to safety. France, in particular, faced political gridlock and concerns over fiscal mismanagement. Fitch downgraded its credit rating from AA- to A+, citing low prospects for fiscal reform. This elevated concern over sovereign risk pushed global bond yields upward and indirectly supported the dollar, as investors searched for relative safety.

Brooks argued that these external shocks may partly explain the dollar’s resilience, contrary to conventional expectations. The dollar's role as a global reserve currency remains intact, at least temporarily, amid regional uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

Temporary Turbulence or Long-Term Realignment?

Despite the confusion, Brooks does not view these market distortions as a permanent shift. He suggests that the anomalies reflect noise rather than structural transformation. According to him, the market will eventually normalize and revert to historical averages.

However, other analysts like Michael Brown from Pepperstone see these developments as rooted in macroeconomic shifts. He notes that the dollar’s 10% decline since the start of the year correlates with domestic policy instability under Donald Trump, including fiscal indiscipline and attempts to undermine Fed independence. Brown argues that these macro factors such as soaring government spending, a resumed rate-cutting cycle, and potential inflation resurgence make today’s “strange” market correlations more rational when viewed through a broader lens.

The recent divergence between expected and actual asset behavior signals more than short-term dislocation. It reflects the tension between political narratives, policy uncertainty, and traditional market mechanics. While gold has reasserted itself as the anchor in turbulent waters, questions remain about the sustainability of the dollar’s global dominance and the reliability of asset correlations in a shifting macroeconomic landscape. Whether these are mere anomalies or early indicators of a new paradigm depends on whether structural reforms or continued volatility define the months ahead.

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Domestic market momentum strengthens

Thailand’s digital asset market recorded a total value of 100 billion baht in August 2025, marking a 0.78% month-on-month increase and underscoring sustained investor optimism despite global volatility. Daily average trading volume edged higher to nearly 3 billion baht (≈ 95 million USD), up from 2.93 billion baht in July.

This steady rise suggests a broadening base of market participants and stronger market liquidity. The link between investor confidence and trading volume appears bidirectional: rising activity boosts sentiment, while sustained confidence encourages further capital inflows.

Expanding retail participation

Active accounts climbed sharply to 230,000, an increase of over 8% from the previous month. Domestic individual investors remain the backbone of the market, accounting for 42% of all accounts. They are followed by foreign institutional investors (25%), domestic institutions (18%), and foreign retail investors (15%). This demographic structure shows that local retail interest is still driving market growth, while institutional participation particularly foreign is becoming a significant secondary force supporting market stability and professionalism.

The domestic uptrend aligns with the broader global digital asset market, which has reached a capitalization of over 4 trillion USD. Daily global trading volumes average around 35 billion USD, up more than 7% month-on-month. continues to dominate with over 53% market share, followed by and other altcoins. This shows a strong correlation between global and Thai market sentiment, as international rallies tend to lift local valuations and spur trading enthusiasm.

Thailand’s regulatory clarity and expanding infrastructure are helping the market channel this global momentum domestically. The country now hosts 9 licensed exchanges, 14 brokerages, 4 dealing firms, and multiple ancillary service providers, forming a comprehensive digital asset ecosystem. The growing number of licensed entities reinforces investor trust and reduces counterparty risk, which in turn lowers market friction and supports sustained expansion.

Building foundations for sustainable growth

Thailand’s progress illustrates how licensing and oversight can accelerate market maturation. By tightening supervision while allowing new entrants, the SEC has helped legitimize the sector and provide a framework that reassures both retail and institutional investors. The rise in active accounts alongside stable price performance suggests that participants increasingly view digital assets as a viable investment class rather than a speculative fad.

If this momentum is maintained, Thailand could position itself as a regional hub for digital finance and blockchain innovation. The challenge ahead lies in balancing growth with risk management ensuring that investor protection, cybersecurity, and anti-money-laundering measures keep pace with the market’s rapid expansion.

Thailand’s digital asset market breaking the 100 billion baht mark highlights its accelerating integration into global capital flows. Strengthening local participation, robust regulatory architecture, and global crypto tailwinds are converging to drive growth. While external volatility remains a risk, the country’s increasingly mature market structure suggests it is better positioned than before to absorb shocks and sustain long-term development in the digital finance arena.

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Economic

Druzhba as a critical energy lifeline for Central Europe

The Druzhba pipeline serves as the principal conduit for Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia, and any disruption creates a direct supply shock. Hungary imports approximately 3.4 to 5 million tonnes of Russian crude annually through the pipeline’s southern branch, while Slovakia relies on it for nearly its entire crude supply. Because both nations are landlocked, they lack alternative seaborne routes and have limited access to diversified suppliers.

This structural reliance means that physical attacks on the pipeline carry immediate and disproportionate consequences for these two economies, disrupting refinery operations and increasing input costs, whereas Russia, with its vast export network, can reroute flows to other buyers.

Narrow alternatives and high adaptation costs

The only available alternative has insufficient capacity to fully replace Druzhba flows. Moreover, Hungarian and Slovak refineries are technically optimized to process heavy Russian crude, making rapid shifts to lighter grades from other sources operationally complex and costly. This technical path dependency magnifies the vulnerability: even if oil is available from other suppliers, processing constraints reduce its immediate usability.

As a result, even temporary disruptions on Druzhba can trigger price spikes, threaten fuel security, and force governments to draw on strategic reserves, undercutting their broader energy and economic stability.

Political backlash and diplomatic friction

Hungary’s foreign minister, condemned the Ukrainian strikes as “unacceptable” and warned they undermine Hungary’s sovereignty. He stressed that Hungary supplies around 40% of Ukraine’s electricity and has refrained from retaliatory measures, despite expelling the alleged drone unit commander responsible for the attack. This underscores the political paradox: Hungary remains both an energy donor and a collateral victim in the conflict.

While the minister ruled out cutting electricity supplies to avoid harming Ukrainian civilians, he framed the attacks as strategically misguided because they fail to harm Russia but directly threaten EU member states’ security. The comments highlight a growing rift between Kyiv and some of its European partners, who perceive the strikes as counterproductive.

Strategic dilemma for Hungary and Slovakia

Both countries are exempt from the due to geographic constraints, but this exemption leaves them increasingly exposed to geopolitical risk. They face a dual challenge: ensuring stable Druzhba flows in the short term while investing in new infrastructure and diversifying import sources to reduce vulnerability over time.

This creates a complex trade-off. Maintaining reliance on Russian oil preserves energy affordability and industrial continuity, but prolongs strategic exposure. Accelerating diversification, meanwhile, requires substantial capital, technical adaptation, and political coordination at the EU level. Until that transition is achieved, any disruption to Druzhba will disproportionately harm Hungary and Slovakia, rather than Russia, which can absorb localized infrastructure losses more easily.

Ukraine’s strikes on the Druzhba pipeline have underscored how deeply Hungary and Slovakia remain entangled in Russian energy networks. The incidents expose their acute vulnerability: as landlocked states without viable substitutes, they bear the most immediate costs from any disruption. For Moscow, by contrast, the damage is marginal and largely symbolic. This asymmetry highlights a central tension in the region’s energy security—while the EU pushes to sever reliance on Russian oil, its most dependent members risk being the ones most hurt by the conflict’s escalation.

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Green logistics as a pillar of sustainable trade growth

As Vietnam deepens its integration into the global economy, the development of a sustainable logistics ecosystem has become essential. Green logistics emphasizing low-emission transportation, energy-efficient infrastructure, and environmentally conscious supply chain management is now viewed as a key benchmark of corporate sustainability. According to Trần Phú Lữ, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Trade and Investment Promotion Center, green logistics is not merely a trend but an inevitable criterion that determines the long-term competitiveness of the logistics industry.

Integrating green practices into strategic planning can help businesses reduce operating costs, increase customer loyalty, and expand their market access. This shift is reinforced by state-led investment in infrastructure, such as expressways and eco-friendly seaports, which aim to streamline transportation while lowering emissions.

Technological modernization and operational reform

Domestic logistics companies are actively restructuring their operations to align with stricter sustainability requirements from export markets. This includes adopting multimodal transport models, implementing energy-saving warehouse systems, and using GPS and cold chain technologies to optimize storage and reduce energy consumption. These upgrades improve operational efficiency and cut carbon intensity across the supply chain.

Trương Tấn Lộc, Vice President of the Ho Chi Minh City Logistics Association, notes that global regulatory frameworks such as the (CBAM) and (CSDDD) are reshaping how carbon is priced worldwide. These mechanisms impose indirect costs on carbon-intensive goods, making supply chain sustainability not just a social responsibility but a commercial necessity.

In this context, green logistics data is evolving into a key performance indicator, elevating brand value and strengthening the bargaining power of Vietnamese exporters. Transparent, low-emission supply chains are increasingly a prerequisite for being selected by international buyers. This shift underscores a causal relationship between sustainability compliance and market access companies that fail to adapt risk losing global contracts.

Digital customs and infrastructure upgrades accelerate progress

Alongside private-sector transformation, Vietnamese customs authorities are driving a digital overhaul to handle the growing volume of international trade. According to Bùi Tuấn Hải, Deputy Chief of Customs Sub-Department II, the sector is developing an IT-based ecosystem to modernize clearance procedures and minimize delays.

To thrive in this digital environment, logistics firms must focus on four critical practices: consistently updating customs regulations to avoid declaration errors, ensuring precise and complete electronic documentation from the outset, leveraging 24/7 online tax payment systems to shorten clearance times, and maintaining proactive communication with customs officials to resolve issues transparently. These measures directly enhance clearance speed and trustworthiness, which are essential to international competitiveness.

The convergence of green logistics, digital customs reforms, and advanced infrastructure investment is redefining Vietnam’s logistics sector. This transformation is not only a response to global sustainability expectations but also a strategic gateway for Vietnamese goods to strengthen their presence on the international stage. By embedding sustainability and transparency into their operations, Vietnamese enterprises can convert environmental responsibility into a competitive advantage securing their place in global supply chains and future-proofing their growth.

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