IEA Boosts 2025 Oil Supply Forecast After Latest Opec+ Hike

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

The International Energy Agency on Friday raised its forecast for supply growth this year after Opec+'s latest decision to pump more oil, while it trimmed its outlook for demand.

The International Energy Agency on Friday raised its forecast for supply growth this year after Opec+'s latest decision to pump more oil, while it trimmed its outlook for demand, saying that in recent months, oil use has slowed down significantly.

The IEA expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, up 300,000 bpd from the previous forecast, the agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report.

Opec+ is adding more crude to the market after the group decided to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts in April and accelerate the hikes from May, June, July and August.

Even so, the IEA said that rising refinery processing rates to meet summer travel and power-generation demand were tightening the market.

"Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances," the agency said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Economic

Commodity

Gold Holds Ground Amid Trump Tariff Threats and Fed Policy Uncertainty

The gold market maintained its upward momentum into Friday, as traders absorbed two key forces: escalating trade tensions initiated by President Donald Trump and an increasingly divided U.S. Federal Reserve over the timing of potential interest rate cuts. The metal traded at $3,334.27 an ounce by 8:15 a.m. London time, extending gains from Wednesday and Thursday but still recovering from an earlier weekly drop.

The rise in gold’s value reflects its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during periods of global uncertainty. President Trump this week proposed sweeping new tariffs targeting countries such as Canada and Brazil, and notably slapped a substantial tariff on copper imports set to take effect August 1. These policy shifts sparked fresh investor concerns about the fragility of global trade and industrial demand, driving money back into gold.

Interest Rate Outlook Remains Divided as Fed Officials Signal Uncertainty

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve has so far maintained steady interest rates in 2025, but internal disagreements have started to surface. Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, reiterated her view that two rate cuts are still possible this year, citing confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs might be milder than markets fear.

Lower interest rates tend to favor non-yielding assets like gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them. This prospect, combined with Trump's aggressive stance on trade, has led to continued speculation that the Fed may have to ease policy in response to a cooling global economy or deteriorating sentiment.

Gold’s Rally Fueled by Multiple Drivers

The latest uptick in gold comes after a sharp rally earlier this year, when prices breached $3,500 an ounce in April, fueled by central-bank purchases, geopolitical instability, and dovish expectations from global monetary authorities. So far in 2025, gold has gained over 25%, making it one of the best-performing assets in a volatile macroeconomic environment.

Traders now eye both macroeconomic data releases and any signals from upcoming Fed meetings to refine their expectations. At the same time, the Trump administration's unpredictable trade policies continue to act as a source of volatility, strengthening gold's appeal as a risk hedge.

Broader Precious Metals Market Mixed

In other metals markets, silver prices edged higher, benefiting from both industrial and haven demand, while platinum and palladium slipped, reflecting lingering concerns over global auto production and industrial consumption. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a key gauge of dollar strength, rose 0.2%, capping further upside for dollar-denominated commodities like gold.

Gold's continued resilience underscores a fragile risk sentiment across global markets. As long as Trump's tariff strategy injects uncertainty into trade flows and the Federal Reserve remains ambiguous about its policy path, gold is likely to maintain a strong floor, with traders watching closely for signs of renewed upside toward April’s highs.

Source: Bloomberg

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White House Pressure Mounts on Powell as Fed Independence Faces New Test

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is facing intensified political pressure as top officials in the Trump administration, including Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought, openly criticize his leadership. The latest flashpoint revolves around a costly and controversial renovation project of the Fed’s Washington, D.C. headquarters, now projected at $2.5 billion a 30% increase from earlier estimates.

Vought, a close Trump ally, publicly posted a letter addressed to Powell in which he denounced the renovation as “ostentatious” and financially irresponsible, citing features like rooftop gardens, VIP dining rooms, and luxury elevators. He questioned Powell’s Senate testimony denying the presence of such features and implied the Fed was non-compliant with the National Capital Planning Act, raising the possibility of a legal breach requiring construction to halt.

The accusations come at a moment of escalating friction between Powell and the Trump White House. President Trump has repeatedly demanded sharp interest rate cuts, claiming they are essential to reflect U.S. economic strength. He has gone so far as to publicly call for Powell’s resignation and has encouraged Congress to investigate the Fed Chair for alleged misconduct.

Legal Debate: Can the President Fire Powell?

Despite growing calls from Trump officials to remove Powell “for cause,” legal experts note that the Federal Reserve Chair enjoys strong statutory protections. Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act allows board members to be removed only “for cause,” a vague term traditionally interpreted to mean “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance.”

Powell has previously asserted that “not permitted under the law” is the correct interpretation regarding presidential power to fire a sitting Fed Chair, unless a serious breach is legally proven.

Nonetheless, the administration is actively planning for the post-Powell era. With Governor Adriana Kugler stepping down in January, a 14-year board seat will open, and discussions are already underway regarding her replacement. Another opportunity arises when Powell’s chairmanship ends in May 2026, potentially giving Trump a second seat to reshape Fed policy.

Fed Renovation: A Political Lightning Rod

The $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters has emerged as a major point of contention. Media reports heavily cited by Republican lawmakers claimed extravagant elements such as marble décor, rooftop terraces, private art installations, and direct elevators to VIP dining areas.

Powell flatly denied these claims during June Senate testimony, describing them as “misleading and inaccurate.” He asserted that the controversial features were never included or had been removed from the current plans.

Still, Vought’s letter argues that Powell’s testimony raised red flags, warranting oversight by the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC) a body whose leadership now includes Trump loyalists like James Blair, who immediately called for an independent review and site inspection of the renovation project.

What’s at Stake for Monetary Policy and Market Stability

The broader context for this political battle is the administration’s frustration with Powell’s cautious rate-cut strategy. Despite U.S. inflation recently stabilizing just above 3%, Trump has repeatedly asserted that rates must be slashed to reflect economic momentum. He believes the Fed’s current 4.25% rate is impeding growth and has openly urged Powell to “rapidly lower” it.

Yet, Powell has maintained a data-dependent approach. With uncertainty over inflation persistence and global economic volatility including a sluggish European economy and renewed tariffs the Fed has resisted politically motivated rate moves.

The controversy underscores a profound test for central bank independence in the United States. Trump’s growing influence over key appointments, his public threats against Powell, and the politicization of internal Fed matters like building renovations all raise concerns over whether the Fed can maintain its policy neutrality.

With the 2026 chair succession on the horizon and multiple vacancies opening on the Board of Governors, the Trump administration appears poised to reshape the Fed’s leadership, potentially tilting it toward a more aggressive pro-growth, low-rate stance at the possible expense of credibility and long-term price stability.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Global Maritime Industry Faces Inevitable Green Transition

The global shipping industry is undergoing a profound transformation aimed at achieving net-zero carbon emissions, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This transition encompasses not just vessels, but the entire supply chain, including business models, ports, and the maritime workforce.

As of April 2025, the IMO has approved a new set of regulations focusing on low-carbon fuels and emissions control, slated to come into force by October 2025. However, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez emphasized during the Green Finance Forum in Monaco that regulations alone are insufficient. He stressed the need for major investments in clean fuel technologies and alternative energy sources, without which the industry’s decarbonization efforts cannot advance.

Massive Capital Shift into Green Technologies

At the United Nations Ocean Conference held in Nice from June 9 to 13, global calls intensified for public-private investment in clean maritime solutions. One key priority is the development and scaling of carbon-neutral fuels to replace the 350 million tons of heavy fuel oil (mazut) currently used annually in global shipping.

Modernizing port infrastructure and establishing global clean fuel supply chains are also critical. Ports must be equipped to deliver safe and clean energy for ships docking worldwide, aligning maritime transport with broader environmental and climate goals.

Remarkably, the container shipping industry has already begun adapting, with at least 200 vessels capable of operating on near-zero-emission fuels, according to the World Shipping Council. Over 80% of new container and car carrier ship orders now feature advanced hybrid propulsion systems, reflecting a market-wide pivot toward green shipping.

Total investment in decarbonizing container shipping alone has reached $150 billion, a historic milestone for the sector. Dominguez underscored the urgency: “We have spent money polluting the planet now it’s time to invest in cleaning it up and securing a sustainable future.”

Beyond Emissions: Navigating a New Safety Landscape

While environmental concerns dominate the current agenda, the IMO is also focused on maritime safety and cybersecurity, recognizing the evolving complexity of the shipping industry. From June 18 to 27, 176 member states of the IMO’s Maritime Safety Committee met in London to address key challenges such as greenhouse gas regulations, cyber risk management, autonomous vessel governance, and anti-piracy measures.

A particularly notable discussion was the potential expansion of nuclear-powered commercial vessels, prompting a review of safety protocols first adopted in 1981. As nuclear technology becomes more viable in commercial shipping, it introduces cross-border safety and regulatory complexities, underscoring the need for robust governance in this emerging field.

A Turning Point with Shared Responsibility

Experts warn that the rapid pace of technological progress in maritime transport will have a deep impact on the global economy, reshaping trade flows, industrial investment, and regulatory landscapes. The IMO concluded that governments, industries, and civil society all share the duty of protecting the marine environment, not only for today but for generations to come.

“This isn’t just our ocean it’s our shared responsibility and opportunity,” Dominguez declared. As the shipping industry moves into a new era, the choices made today will define the sustainability of maritime trade tomorrow.

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Economic

South Korea’s National Debt Surpasses 1,200 Trillion Won for the First Time

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, South Korea’s central government debt stood at 1,217.8 trillion won (approximately USD 886.6 billion) in May 2025, marking the first time it has crossed the 1,200 trillion won threshold. This represents a monthly increase of 19.9 trillion won and a year-to-date surge of 61.7 trillion won.

This ballooning debt comes amid slowing revenue growth and aggressive government spending to stimulate the economy. The current debt level is now just 28.3 trillion won shy of the government’s full-year forecast of 1,246.1 trillion won, made after the first supplementary budget. With a second budget already passed in July, the finance ministry now expects the debt to reach 1,267.2 trillion won by year-end. Including local government debt, the total national debt is projected to hit 1,301.9 trillion won.

Revenue Growth Stalls While Expenditures Surge

From January to May, government revenue totaled 279.8 trillion won, up 21.6 trillion won from the same period in 2024. However, the collection rate slowed slightly, with only 42.9% of annual targets achieved, compared to 43.4% last year.

Meanwhile, government expenditure reached 315.3 trillion won, an increase of 4.9 trillion won year-on-year. Of the 241.1 trillion won allocated to fast-tracked projects, 139 trillion won (57.7%) was already disbursed by May, signaling a continued focus on economic stimulus.

Rising Fiscal Risk Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

This record-high debt also coincides with heightened political tension, following the second arrest of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, and growing global concerns over public debt burdens. With the global interest rate cycle potentially reversing, South Korea may face higher borrowing costs, further pressuring fiscal sustainability.

The situation underscores the mounting risk that government spending, if left unchecked, could deepen the budget deficit and crowd out investment in long-term development.

A Delicate Balancing Act

With the debt already nearing its full-year forecast just five months into 2025, the government is walking a fine line. If revenue continues to slow and borrowing remains high, the risk of fiscal imbalance will grow, threatening economic stability.

In the second half of the year, policymakers must weigh their choices carefully whether to continue stimulating growth at the cost of ballooning debt or begin tightening fiscal policy amid uncertain global conditions. Either path will shape South Korea’s economic resilience in the years ahead.

Source: Chosun Daily

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UK Growth Stalls as May Data Disappoints Expectations

The UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May, failing to meet economists’ expectations of a modest rebound. According to the Office for National Statistics, the decline was led by a sharp 0.9% drop in manufacturing and a 0.6% contraction in construction activity. The figures follow a deeper 0.3% contraction in April, compounding concerns over the country’s economic trajectory and creating a challenging backdrop for newly appointed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who has prioritized boosting growth and narrowing the budget deficit.

Despite a temporary lift from a 0.7% expansion in Q1 largely credited to front-loaded economic activity ahead of Trump’s tariff wave the UK’s momentum appears to be fading. With trade policy volatility still looming and domestic uncertainty elevated, the second quarter is likely to show sluggish results. Deutsche Bank has already revised down its Q2 growth forecast to 0.1%, citing May’s disappointing data.

Trump Tariffs and Global Uncertainty Fuel Downward Pressure

The UK’s vulnerability to global shocks was laid bare earlier this year when President Trump introduced sweeping new tariffs, including a 10% reciprocal levy on UK goods, despite a balanced bilateral trade in goods. The broader financial impact was exacerbated by global market jitters and delayed investment decisions.

Although the UK was the first country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. in the current negotiation cycle, the benefits of this deal have not yet materialized. Moreover, Trump’s threats of expanding tariffs to BRICS nations and trans-shipment routes including through Vietnam continue to spook manufacturers with global supply chains. Unresolved trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU further compound the external risks facing Britain’s export sector.

Domestically, the UK’s service-oriented surplus with the U.S. has remained intact, but it's insufficient to offset the drag from weakening production, rising costs, and low business confidence. The construction sector has also been hit by reduced private investment and higher material costs trends that could intensify if borrowing costs do not fall quickly enough.

Monetary Policy Outlook: Rate Cut on the Horizon?

Economic pressures are now nudging the Bank of England toward easing policy further. Despite headline inflation climbing back above 3%, many analysts, including Suren Thiru from the Institute of Chartered Accountants, believe an August rate cut is now highly likely. Markets are pricing in an 80% probability that the BOE will cut rates from 4.25%, continuing a gradual descent from the peak of 5.25% seen last year.

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey signaled earlier this month that interest rates are on a “downward path,” though he refrained from confirming the timing of any cuts. Compared to the European Central Bank, which has already slashed rates more aggressively, the BOE remains cautious but signs of contraction may force its hand sooner rather than later.

Outlook for Remainder of 2025: Fragile Optimism

While May’s data undeniably signals a setback, some economists caution against overreaction. Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank points to relatively healthy fundamentals: improved household and business sentiment, accessible credit, and encouraging PMI readings. However, he notes that a global manufacturing revival is critical for a sustained UK recovery and this remains the "big unknown."

The next key data point, the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on August 14, will be crucial in shaping both fiscal policy and public confidence. For now, the UK finds itself in a delicate position: buffered by trade diplomacy gains, yet exposed to external shocks and internal fragilities that could stall its post-pandemic recovery.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May, adding to worries at home for finance minister Rachel Reeves in an increasingly uncertain global environment, official data showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product declined by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in April, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecast that gross domestic product would rise by 0.1% from April's level. While the services sector eked out a sliver of growth, declines in industrial output and construction dragged down overall output.

The reading poses downside risks to expectations that the economy grew in the second quarter of 2025, after a surge early in the year. It boosted expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

"The lack of momentum in the UK economy indicated by these sluggish figures means that an August interest rate cut currently looks inevitable, despite the recent spike in inflation," said Suren Thiru, economics director at accountancy body ICAEW.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government has struggled to meaningfully improve growth in its first year in office.

Economists say it looks increasingly likely that Reeves will need to raise taxes again in her next budget - something she had hoped to avoid.

"While today's figures are disappointing, I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise," Reeves said of Friday's data.

Britain's economy expanded rapidly in the first quarter of 2025, outstripping growth in other countries in the Group of Seven advanced economies. In May the Bank of England revised up its full-year growth forecast to 1%.

However, much of the growth in early 2025 was likely to have been linked to the expiry of a tax break for some home purchases in April which boosted the sector before the deadline, and a rush by manufacturers to beat higher U.S. import tariffs.

The BoE has said it thinks the economy grew by about 0.25% in the second quarter of 2025. To achieve any growth for the quarter, the ONS said June's monthly data would need to show at least a flat reading, assuming no revisions to earlier months.

A month-on-month contraction of 0.4% or worse for June would herald a quarterly contraction.

"The second straight decline in monthly real GDP in May will increase concerns that the government's growth plan has been derailed by external and domestic shocks," said Raj Badiani, economics director, Europe, at S&P Global Market Intelligence.