Hezbollah Warns of Civil War Over Lebanon's Disarmament Push

A Path to Chaos: Hezbollah Issues Stark Warning

A senior Hezbollah official has issued a sharp warning to Lebanon's government, stating that any attempt to disarm the group across the country could ignite chaos and potentially a civil war.

In comments to the Russian state media outlet RT, senior political official Mahmoud Qmati declared that a state monopoly on arms outside of southern Lebanon would be "the biggest crime committed by the state."

"The path taken by the Lebanese government and state institutions will lead Lebanon to instability, chaos and perhaps even civil war," Qmati said. However, he clarified that Hezbollah would not be drawn into a direct conflict with the Lebanese army.

The 2024 Agreement: A Deep Divide on Disarmament

The current tension stems from conflicting interpretations of a 2024 agreement that ended a war between Hezbollah and Israel. The Lebanese government has pledged to bring all weapons in the country under state control, viewing the deal as a nationwide mandate.

Hezbollah, however, maintains the agreement is strictly limited to the southernmost region of Lebanon bordering Israel and has refused to surrender its weapons elsewhere.

This dispute is coming to a head as the Lebanese army announced last week it had assumed operational control in the area between the Litani River and the Israeli border. In response, the Lebanese cabinet has tasked the army with presenting a plan in early February for pursuing disarmament in other parts of the country.

Hezbollah's Preconditions for Further Talks

Hezbollah has laid out clear conditions that it says must be met before any further discussions on disarmament can occur. According to Qmati, there will be no dialogue about the situation north of the Litani River until Israel takes several key actions:

• Withdrawal: Israeli troops must withdraw from five occupied hilltop positions in southern Lebanon and all other Lebanese territory.

• Halt Violations: Israel must cease its near-daily airstrikes against Lebanon.

• Prisoner Release: All detained Lebanese must be released.

"There will be no talk or dialogue about any situation north of the Litani River before Israel withdraws from all Lebanese territory, liberates the South and the prisoners, and stops its violations against Lebanon," Qmati stated.

Israel's Stance and Escalating Border Tensions

From its side, Israel has argued that Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah fighters have been insufficient. This stance increases pressure on Lebanese leaders, who are concerned that Israel could escalate its military strikes.

The volatile situation is set against the backdrop of the war in Gaza, which began in October 2023. That conflict triggered months of cross-border hostilities, leading to near-daily exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah along the Lebanon-Israel frontier.