Gold Surges to Record High as Global Markets React to Dollar Doubts and Geopolitical Strains

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold surged past $3,550 per ounce in early Tuesday trading, reflecting eroding investor confidence in the U.S. dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions...

Historic Gold Rally Reflects Declining Faith in the Dollar

The spot price of gold surged to a record $3,571.50 per ounce on Tuesday, marking a dramatic milestone for the safe-haven asset. This new high surpasses the previous intraday peak of $3,509.90 set in April 2025, continuing a rally that has nearly doubled the metal’s value since early 2023. The renewed momentum comes amid intensifying skepticism toward fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, following political instability and central bank criticism from President Donald Trump.

According to Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management, the rally represents more than just price movement it signals a broader erosion in faith toward fiat-based financial systems. This sentiment has been building for years as investors gradually distanced themselves from U.S. Treasuries, but the pace of this shift has accelerated sharply in 2025.

Political Uncertainty and Tariff Backlash Add Pressure

The latest wave of uncertainty stems from a 7-4 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals, which challenged the legality of Trump's widespread tariffs imposed under the guise of national emergencies. Although the ruling upheld prior decisions, it delayed immediate rollback, granting the administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court. This legal battle has amplified market anxieties regarding the rule of law in trade policy and the broader reliability of U.S. economic governance.

Investors’ wariness over escalating U.S. government debt, combined with renewed global trade tensions and the shifting geopolitical landscape, has bolstered the case for non-dollar assets. Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote Bank emphasized that this multifaceted risk environment has led many institutional investors to seek refuge in hard assets such as gold.

Asia’s Diverging Market Response Signals Regional Fragility

Without Wall Street’s lead due to the Labor Day holiday, Asian stock markets displayed mixed reactions. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% to 42,229.39, suggesting cautious bargain-hunting by local investors ahead of a key 10-year JGB auction. In contrast, Chinese markets declined, with the Hang Seng down 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite slipping 0.8%, as investors pulled back from recent rallies.

These declines came amid the Tianjin Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which featured leaders from Russia and North Korea and emphasized strengthening ties. The gathering is widely viewed as a geopolitical counterweight to the West, with Mizuho Bank’s Ong Ju Hong suggesting it sets China and its allies on a confrontational trajectory with Trump-era U.S. policies.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.9% to 3,170.18, and India’s Sensex added 0.4%, highlighting regional discrepancies in investor sentiment. Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.3%, while Thailand’s SET index rose 0.7%, reflecting local economic resilience.

Commodity and Currency Markets Signal Volatility Ahead

Oil markets remained relatively stable, with U.S. benchmark crude rising to $64.90 per barrel and Brent crude increasing to $68.41. These modest gains reflect ongoing uncertainty around global demand and supply chain dynamics amid heightened geopolitical activity.

Currency markets mirrored broader risk aversion. The U.S. dollar appreciated against the yen, reaching 147.75 from 147.18, while the euro declined slightly to $1.1693. The dollar’s strength despite weakening institutional trust may reflect a temporary haven status amid global trade instability and uneven equity performances.

Data Releases in Focus as Market Looks for Clarity

Traders are now turning their attention to a series of key economic indicators due later in the week. In the U.S., upcoming data on durable goods orders, jobless claims, and manufacturing performance are expected to shed light on the economy’s resilience under the weight of trade disruptions and fiscal uncertainty.

In Europe, investors await preliminary inflation data and manufacturing output reports, which will help clarify whether the eurozone’s economy can maintain stability amid the twin forces of energy volatility and sluggish consumer confidence.

The record-breaking surge in gold prices underscores growing anxiety over the credibility of fiat currencies and long-term economic governance in the U.S., especially in light of trade policy unpredictability. Simultaneously, Asia’s mixed market responses reflect a fragmented regional outlook shaped by localized risks, geopolitical realignment, and divergent policy responses. With investors flocking to gold and sidestepping traditional safe assets like Treasuries, the global financial narrative is increasingly defined by distrust, volatility, and the search for tangible security.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Foreign Capital Leads as Japanese Investors Hold Back

Despite Japan entering a reflationary phase marked by surging equities and rising long-term bond yields, domestic investors remain surprisingly absent from the rally. Foreign investors have been the primary force behind the recent upswing in Tokyo’s financial markets. Since April, the Topix index has surged by 34.2%, yet retail and institutional Japanese investors have shown limited enthusiasm.

CLSA strategist Nicholas Smith attributes the momentum to overseas buying, supported by favorable government policies and a landmark shift in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stance. For the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis, the BOJ raised interest rates and began paring back its extensive government bond holdings. This move triggered a broad asset rotation away from bonds and toward equities, especially in traditional industrial sectors, while depressing demand for long-duration fixed income.

Retail Investor Sentiment Slowly Recovers

Retail investors have withdrawn roughly $23 billion from the market so far this year. Analysts from Bernstein suggest that this hesitation stems from economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s export-heavy economy, as well as general market volatility. However, retail sentiment has recently turned slightly positive. If this recovery continues, it could provide further upside, reinforcing current market momentum already fueled by foreign confidence and rising corporate earnings.

Interestingly, it is not just foreign investors contributing to the stock rally. Japanese corporations, sitting on substantial cash reserves, have aggressively ramped up share buybacks. According to Smith, the scale of corporate purchases has exceeded that of foreign inflows, indicating strong internal support for equity prices. This suggests a strategic shift in capital allocation by Japanese firms choosing to reinvest in themselves and boost shareholder value rather than hoarding cash or expanding overseas.

Currency Stability Despite Market Shifts

Despite these major moves in the equity and bond markets, the yen has remained unusually stable. It continues to fluctuate within a 140–160 band against the U.S. dollar and has not strengthened in response to higher domestic bond yields or booming equity returns. The key reason lies in the absence of repatriation flows.

Brad Setser from the Council on Foreign Relations points out that many Japanese institutional portfolios had heavily invested in U.S. Treasuries before the pandemic. Due to post-COVID interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, these holdings are now underwater, disincentivizing repatriation. As a result, domestic capital remains locked abroad, failing to respond to the domestic reflation narrative.

Market Dynamics Behind the Rotation

Japan’s current market environment displays classic signs of a reflationary shift. Investors seeking stronger economic growth have rotated from bonds into equities, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix both reaching record highs. Moreover, value stocks typically representative of broader economic participation are outperforming high-growth firms, echoing similar trends observed globally during reflation cycles. This outperformance suggests a more balanced and sustainable growth profile rather than one dependent solely on technology or export-led sectors.

A critical dynamic in the fixed-income market has enabled foreign investors to profit from Japan’s bonds. When Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are swapped into U.S. dollars, they yield nearly 5%, outperforming equivalent U.S. Treasuries offering just 3.86%. This arbitrage is a direct result of the wide interest rate differential between the BOJ and the Fed. However, for Japanese investors, the story is different. Hedging U.S. investments against yen depreciation is increasingly costly due to Japan’s low rates, eroding the appeal of overseas bonds.

Potential for Capital Repatriation Remains Unlocked

Japan remains one of the world’s largest net asset holders, although it recently ceded its top creditor position to Germany. A significant portion of its wealth is parked overseas. In theory, these assets could be repatriated to support domestic markets. But for now, high hedging costs and unrealized losses deter such a move. Until a broader reversal occurs either through improved yen carry conditions or reduced overseas losses this capital is likely to remain inert.

Japan’s financial resurgence is currently being led by foreign capital and corporate initiatives, while domestic investors remain cautious spectators. The divergence highlights both structural and behavioral hurdles within Japan’s investment culture, shaped by legacy overseas exposures, tariff-related uncertainties, and unfavorable currency hedging dynamics. If retail flows return and institutional repatriation picks up, the rally may gain broader depth. However, for now, the reflation story in Japan belongs more to Wall Street than to Tokyo’s retail or pension funds.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Economic Growth Stabilizing Around Potential Output

Recent data confirms that the euro area economy has steadily expanded at a rate of 0.3% per quarter over the last eighteen months, matching estimates of potential growth. This consistency is notable given the prevailing geopolitical and trade tensions, suggesting a recovery driven not by temporary surges but by structurally improving domestic demand. Lower trade policy uncertainty and the emergence of a supportive fiscal impulse have further encouraged this momentum. Purchasing managers' indexes reinforce the expectation of continued economic activity, while international resilience especially in the US and China has also supported the euro area’s outlook.

Current inflation readings hover close to 2%, in line with ECB expectations. Schnabel emphasized that in a world affected by frequent supply-side shocks, perfect price stability at exactly 2% is unrealistic. Short-term fluctuations, particularly from energy base effects and fiscal measures, should not distract from the medium-term goal. Market-based inflation expectations, drawn from professional surveys, remain centered around the ECB’s target, reinforcing confidence in the current policy stance.

Identifying Key Inflationary Pressures

Despite general inflation stability, several upside risks remain. Food price inflation has surged due to weather disruptions and remains a key factor influencing public inflation expectations. Notably, food import inflation has remained elevated even as the euro appreciated, implying a weaker-than-expected exchange rate pass-through. Tariffs also present a latent inflationary risk. While retaliatory responses have been muted, global input price increases such as those triggered by tariffs on rare earths or the US de minimis rule are likely to propagate through global value chains. Schnabel stresses that such supply-side factors, typically underestimated in standard economic models, must be acknowledged for their cumulative inflationary potential.

Additionally, a forthcoming fiscal expansion is anticipated to place inflationary pressure on the economy. However, the magnitude of its effect will depend on whether or not the economy faces capacity constraints.

Schnabel dismissed concerns over recent euro appreciation. From a historical and real effective exchange rate perspective, current fluctuations are moderate. Moreover, in the current context of strong internal demand, the typical elasticity of exchange rate movements on consumer prices appears diminished. The appreciation reflects revised global growth expectations rather than competitive devaluation, hence its subdued effect on inflation.

Chinese Exports and Tariff Implications

Some analysts had predicted a deflationary effect in Europe from Chinese exporters offloading surplus production due to US tariffs. However, Schnabel observed no major dumping of goods in the euro area. Instead, Chinese export prices have rebounded, especially in consumer electronics, possibly due to reduced scope for aggressive price competition as emphasized in Beijing’s anti-involution policy. Import volumes from China remain too small to significantly influence euro area inflation, particularly in consumer goods where Germany reports a modest 1.4% Chinese share.

Schnabel affirmed that interest rates are well-calibrated, with inflation expectations anchored and the economy near full employment. Given current projections, there is no immediate need to alter the monetary stance. The ECB’s focus remains on preventing persistent deviations from its inflation target, especially those that could unanchor expectations.

Although some market participants anticipate another rate cut, Schnabel argued that such decisions are not driven by fine-tuning models but by holistic assessments. Her view is that the current policy is already mildly accommodative, and no further easing is required unless new developments shift the medium-term inflation trajectory.

Tariffs and Their Delayed Impact on Inflation

While Schnabel acknowledged that tariffs’ effects often unfold with delay, initial signs in the US already show rising inflation in tariff-sensitive sectors like electronics and furniture. As inventories deplete and firms pass costs onto consumers, upward pressure on prices may rise. These dynamics require close monitoring since, as seen during the pandemic, global inflationary forces often transcend borders.

Monetary Policy Independence in a Politicized Global Environment

Responding to questions on the potential politicization of the US Federal Reserve, Schnabel reiterated the foundational role of central bank independence in maintaining investor confidence and managing risk premia. She pointed to strong capital inflows into the euro area following the April tariff shocks as evidence of trust in the ECB’s independence. Should US central bank independence weaken, global financial stability could be at risk, though the euro might gain relatively as an alternative.

Nonetheless, she cautioned that a loss of dollar dominance would be globally destabilizing, as no other currency currently holds the institutional depth to replace it.

European Fiscal Fragmentation and ECB’s Role

Addressing France’s ongoing fiscal strain, Schnabel emphasized this as a national rather than systemic concern. She noted that ECB tools like the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) are designed to prevent market disorder, not to intervene in politically driven fiscal challenges. Current market repricing in France does not yet justify activating the TPI.

Schnabel reported that the March 2024 operational framework, which began balance sheet normalization, is functioning as intended. Market-based bank financing has grown while standard refinancing operations remain subdued due to residual excess liquidity. Liquidity withdrawal has proceeded slower than expected due to weak banknote demand and rapid declines in government deposits, providing more flexibility in adjusting operational parameters. Structural refinancing operations will only commence once demand for central bank liquidity stabilizes at higher levels.

A review of the framework is expected to begin in 2026, but preparations will start in 2025 to provide the banking sector with clarity.

Europe’s Role in Technological Transformation

On innovation, Schnabel expressed concern that Europe continues to lag behind the United States and China in the AI revolution. Although innovative activity exists, it remains fragmented due to regulatory heterogeneity. She advocated for a unified European regulatory regime specifically the "28th regime" that would allow startups to scale across borders under a single regulatory structure. Without structural integration through initiatives like the Capital Markets Union, Europe risks marginalization in future technological transformations.

Schnabel’s interview reinforces a narrative of cautious optimism. The euro area economy is performing steadily, and inflation is largely under control, though risks from food, tariffs, and fiscal expansion remain. Policy is likely to remain stable barring unexpected shocks, and the ECB remains committed to preserving independence and anchoring expectations. As global challenges evolve ranging from the Fed’s political risks to Europe’s innovation gaps Schnabel underscores the need for resilience through policy clarity, structural reform, and institutional trust.

Source: Reuters

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MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Commodity

Forex

Economic

The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have staged the expected bullish move, rallied by 2.3% and hit the US$3,435 resistance as highlighted in our earlier publication last Friday, 29 August.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have staged the expected bullish move, rallied by 2.3% and hit the US$3,435 resistance as highlighted in our earlier publication last Friday, 29 August.

For a quick recap, the US$3,435 is considered a significant range resistance on Gold (XAU/USD) as this level has managed to stall prior rallies since its current all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025 and caused Gold (XAU/USD) to oscillate in a choppy sideways range in the past four months.

Gold (XAU/USD) has finally managed to have a proper bullish breakout above the four-month range resistance of US$3,435 in last Friday’s US session, as it recorded a daily close of US$3,447 on 29 August in light of an anticipation of a US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in September.Gold (XAU/USD) extended its upward momentum at the start of the week, advancing 0.8% to close at US$3,476 on Monday, 1 September.In this latest report, we will highlight several key technical elements that Gold (XAU/USD) has entered into a potential short to medium-term bullish acceleration phase.

Let’s discuss them in detail, as well as the next short-term directional bias and key levels to watch on Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish Acceleration Supported Rising Implied Volatility_1

Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish Acceleration Supported Rising Implied Volatility_2

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish Acceleration Supported Rising Implied Volatility_3

Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) with GVZ (implied volatility of Gold ETF) as of 2 Sep2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Maintain bullish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) as the yellow metal kickstarts a potential bullish acceleration phase (see Fig. 1).Watch the US$3,451 key short-term pivotal support. A clearance above US$3,500 (the current all-time high) will see the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,520/3,524 and US$3,536/3,548 (Fibonacci extension clusters).

Key elements

● The hourly MACD trend indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) has just flashed out an impending bullish crossover signal above its centreline, which suggests that short-term bullish momentum remains intact (see Fig. 1).

● The recent bullish breakout in the Gold (XAU/USD) above US$3,435 marks an exit from a bullish continuation range configuration, defined as a bullish “Ascending Triangle”. These observations increase the odds of a continuation of its prior impulsive up move sequence (see Fig. 2).

● The daily MACD trend indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to trend upwards above its centreline after its earlier bullish crossover on Monday, August 25, 2025, which supports a potential change in medium-term trend conditions from sideways to bullish (see Fig. 2).

● The Cboe Gold exchange-traded fund implied volatility (GVZ) has entered into a low volatility environment, as depicted by the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, called the “Band Squeeze” since mid-July 2025. A “Band Squeeze” or a low “Bandwidth” reading is a prelude to a potential expansion in volatility. An increased implied volatility (GVZ) may trigger a significant up move in Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 3).

● Recent observations between February and March 2025, when a Bollinger “Band Squeeze” in GVZ occurred, preceded a notable rally in Gold (XAU/USD) in April 2025 (see Fig. 3).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at the US$3,451 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective decline to retest US$3,435/3,432 pull-back support of the former medium-term “Ascending Triangle” range resistance.

Source: OANDA

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Economic

A Historic Coalition for Innovation

The India Deep Tech Investment Alliance represents an unprecedented coordinated effort among investors, including Accel, Celesta Capital, Blume Ventures, and Premji Invest. Unlike the typical competitive nature of venture funding, this alliance unites members under binding commitments to invest in Indian-domiciled startups over a 5- to 10-year horizon. Together, they aim to foster innovation in foundational technologies such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, space tech, quantum computing, robotics, biotech, energy, and climate solutions.

This coordinated capital push aligns with the Indian government's new ₹1 trillion ($11 billion) Research, Development, and Innovation (RDI) scheme, which encourages local incorporation of deep tech ventures to qualify for regulatory support and incentives.

Bridging the Capital Gap in Indian Deep Tech

The alliance was partly born out of criticism from Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who earlier accused domestic startups of prioritizing convenience services like food delivery over real technological innovation. Founders and investors pushed back, arguing that the ecosystem lacked sufficient capital and policy support for deep tech ventures. By pledging $1 billion and offering mentorship and market access, the alliance directly addresses these criticisms.

Celesta Capital’s Arun Kumar, the inaugural chair of the alliance, and founding partner Sriram Vishwanathan emphasized that the alliance is not just about money, but about energizing an entire ecosystem linking private capital with public policy and creating a powerful, unified voice for shaping India’s tech landscape.

Strategic Timing Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The alliance also serves a strategic function. It follows the launch of the U.S.–India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) initiative earlier this year. Although political tensions have flared including President Trump’s recent 50% tariff on Indian imports over oil trade with Russia the private sector remains bullish on India’s role in global tech.

By pooling resources into early-stage ventures (seed to Series B), the alliance seeks to support innovation from the ground up while avoiding the overcrowded late-stage funding space. Notably, many successful Indian deep tech startups have historically incorporated in the U.S. to access funding a trend the alliance now aims to reverse.

Beyond Capital: Mentorship, Market Entry, and Policy Influence

Alongside capital deployment, the alliance will facilitate mentoring and international expansion for startups. The group will also coordinate on regulatory engagement, pipeline development, due diligence, and co-investment. An advisory committee, initially formed by Accel, Premji Invest, and Venture Catalysts, will guide shared objectives while allowing member funds to retain independent operations.

The alliance opens its doors to new members, including other VC and PE firms, and potentially corporates with strong investment arms. Its long-term success will depend on how effectively it can balance collaboration with execution. If managed well, it could become a vital force in transforming India into a global hub for deep tech innovation.

The alliance reflects a shift in both strategic thinking and investment behavior. By institutionalizing cooperation and focusing on “sunrise” sectors, the alliance has the potential to turn India into an exporter of cutting-edge technologies. With the convergence of ambition, talent, capital, and policy support, the foundation is now set for Indian startups to shape the future of global innovation.

Source: TechCrunch

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James Whitman

Commodity

Economic

Gold prices climbed to an all-time high on Tuesday, extending gains to a sixth session on the back of a weaker dollar and rising bets of a US interest rate cut this month.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at US$3,493.99 (RM14,781) per ounce, as of 0348 GMT, after hitting a record high of US$3,508.50 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery gained 1.4% to US$3,564.40.

"A corollary of the weaker economic backdrop and expectations of US rate cuts is boosting precious metals," said Kyle Rodda, Capital.com's financial market analyst.

"Another factor is the festering confidence crisis in dollar assets because of US President Donald Trump's attack on Fed independence."

Trump has criticised the US Federal Reserve and its chair Jerome Powell for months for not lowering rates, and recently took aim at Powell over a costly renovation of the central bank's Washington headquarters.

On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Fed is and should be independent, but added that it had "made a lot of mistakes" and defended Trump's right to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud.

Traders are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Sept 17, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Rate-cut expectations and worries over the Fed's independence have weighed on the US dollar, which is languishing near a more than one-month low against its rivals, making gold less expensive for overseas buyers.

Data on Friday showed that the US personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, and 2.6% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.

Investors are now looking forward to the US non-farm payrolls data due on Friday, to determine the size of an expected Fed rate cut later this month.

Elsewhere, spot silver gained 0.1% to US$40.71 per ounce, after hitting its highest since September 2011 in the previous session.

Platinum gained 1% to US$1,415.70, and palladium fell 0.7% to US$1,129.03.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Hedge Funds Retreat Despite Market Gains

After a modest 2% gain in the S&P 500 for August, hedge funds appear unimpressed. Goldman Sachs data reveals they were net sellers throughout the month, with leverage levels the amount of borrowed capital used for trading continuing to decline. Morgan Stanley noted a 1% drop in leveraged trading activity across the U.S. and Europe toward the end of August, highlighting muted participation in the broader equity rally. This pullback indicates a deliberate move to reduce risk, despite upward momentum in both U.S. and global markets.

Historical patterns show that U.S. equity markets have posted negative returns in September roughly half the time over the past two decades. Corporate stock buybacks are also restricted this month due to regulatory rules, removing a key source of demand. According to Erlen Capital’s Bruno Schneller, systematic hedge fund strategies are already fully positioned, leaving little room to absorb shocks. He notes that volatility typically increases heading into autumn, compounding the risk of sharper corrections.

Market Fragility Beyond Equities

Porchester Capital’s CIO Omar Sayed points to potential systemic risks emerging from the bond markets. Japanese and British 30-year government bond yields are hovering at multi-year highs, suggesting brewing instability. He warns that financial stress in one market such as the unexpected Bank of Japan rate hike that triggered a global equity selloff in August 2024 could spill over into others. High long-term yields are especially troubling for interest-rate sensitive sectors and could limit central banks’ flexibility.

Retail investors now control over 40% of the U.S. equity market, with UBS estimating that direct equity holdings will reach 265% of U.S. disposable income in 2025 surpassing the previous peak in 2021. This heavy retail involvement may be supporting current valuations, but experts warn it could also amplify downside risk. If economic conditions weaken and retail investors begin pulling back from equity speculation, it could ignite a self-reinforcing cycle of selling.

China Attracts Hedge Fund Attention

While hedge funds remain cautious on Wall Street, they have turned aggressively toward Chinese markets. Goldman Sachs reported record net inflows into Chinese equities in August, with Morgan Stanley noting the highest monthly buying volume since February. This rotation suggests hedge funds are seeking relative value opportunities in regions perceived to offer better upside or less correlation to fragile Western markets.

Despite strong recent performance in equity indices and anticipated policy easing, hedge funds' caution signals deeper concerns about structural vulnerabilities across global markets. Rising long-bond yields, overextended retail exposure, and reduced corporate buybacks make September a high-risk month. Until greater clarity emerges on inflation, growth, and monetary policy, institutional money is likely to remain on the sidelines or seek safer international bets especially in markets like China.