Geopolitical Rivalry Persists as U.S.-Iran Divisions Prove Hard to Bridge

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Summary:

Disarming Hezbollah is key to negotiations with Lebanon; Trump’s bottom line on Iran remains unchanged...

Top Headlines at a Glance

1. Germany to bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council

2. Disarming Hezbollah is key to negotiations with Lebanon

3. White House: Trump’s bottom line on Iran remains unchanged

4. Trump skeptical of Iran’s proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz

5. U.S. tariff adjustments may add $1.1 trillion to the deficit over the next decade

6. For Warsh, shifting to alternative inflation metrics could backfire

Detailed News

Germany to bid for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated on April 27 in New York, ahead of attending UN-related meetings, that Germany will participate in the next round of elections for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, aiming to serve starting in 2027. He emphasized that under current circumstances, the Council should fulfill its responsibilities and seek a diplomatic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz issue.He noted that security in the region is critical to global energy supply and economic stability, and that the international community must work together to ensure the smooth flow of maritime routes. On nuclear issues, Wadephul said the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons should be universally upheld, although this is becoming increasingly difficult. He added that credible deterrence remains necessary amid persistent nuclear threats.

Disarming Hezbollah is key to negotiations with Lebanon

On April 27, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated during a meeting with senior military commanders that Israel has the right to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and retains full operational freedom to eliminate both current and emerging threats, as part of agreements reached with the United States and the Lebanese government.He said Israeli forces continue military operations in the security zone established in southern Lebanon and north of the Litani River, noting that the mission is not yet complete and will not be easy. Two major threats from Hezbollah remain: the use of 122mm rockets and drones. Disarming Hezbollah is a key condition for negotiations with Lebanon.

White House: Trump’s bottom line on Iran remains unchanged

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that President Donald Trump had discussed a new proposal from Iran with senior national security advisers. The proposal aims to resolve the conflict by keeping the Strait of Hormuz open while postponing discussions on Iran’s nuclear program.Leavitt declined to comment directly on the proposal but stressed that Trump’s bottom line remains unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, and Iran must hand over its enriched uranium.“I wouldn’t say they are considering the proposal. I can only confirm that a discussion took place this morning. I don’t want to get ahead of the president’s official statement—you will hear directly from him soon,” she said.

Trump skeptical of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials said President Trump and his national security team are skeptical of Iran’s proposal, which suggests keeping the Strait of Hormuz open while delaying nuclear negotiations. Trump discussed the proposal with aides on Monday morning.Officials said Trump has not outright rejected the plan but has repeatedly pointed to Iran’s lack of sincerity and unwillingness to meet core U.S. demands, including ending uranium enrichment and committing never to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. will continue negotiations, and the White House is expected to respond with a counterproposal in the coming days.

U.S. tariff changes may increase deficit by $1.1 trillion over a decade

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent U.S. tariff policy adjustments could increase the federal deficit by $1.1 trillion over the next decade, although the exact figure remains uncertain.CBO Director Phillip Swagel said a Supreme Court ruling invalidating Trump’s use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs could increase the deficit by $2 trillion over ten years. Measures taken by the administration to offset this loss have generated approximately $800–900 billion in additional revenue.As some tariffs were removed following the ruling and others reinstated, the net effect is an estimated $1.1 trillion increase in the deficit. Swagel noted that the government retains broad authority to impose and adjust tariffs, making it difficult to determine the final deficit impact at this stage.

For Warsh, shifting to alternative inflation metrics could backfire

During his confirmation hearing as the Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh indicated a preference for focusing on trimmed-mean inflation metrics to assess underlying price trends. Analysts at Wrightson ICAP noted that since these measures have recently been below headline inflation, Warsh may avoid relying on them in official policy decisions.They suggested that in critical moments, Warsh would likely act cautiously to avoid appearing selective in citing favorable inflation indicators, especially amid widespread public dissatisfaction with the cost of living. Warsh has pledged to strengthen the Fed’s credibility. The firm added that convincing the public that high inflation readings are misleading would be a difficult task.

Today’s Focus

11:00 (UTC+8) Bank of Japan April Interest Rate Decision

14:30 (UTC+8) BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Press Conference

20:15 (UTC+8) U.S. ADP Employment Change (week ending April 11)

21:00 (UTC+8) U.S. February FHFA House Price Index (MoM)

22:00 (UTC+8) U.S. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

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