Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divisions Over December Rate Cut as Officials Weigh Inflation Risks and Labor Weakness

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes show a sharply divided committee, with several officials viewing the latest rate cut as a "finely balanced" decision....

Rate Cut Approved Amid Disagreement Over Economic Trajectory

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 policy meeting reveal a central bank at a crossroads. While the quarter-point rate cut to a 3.5%–3.75% target range was ultimately approved, it came only after what the Fed described as a "deeply nuanced debate" over the appropriate response to recent economic signals. Even among those who backed the cut, some acknowledged that the choice was "finely balanced" and could have just as easily gone the other way.

This was the third consecutive rate reduction of 2025, enacted in response to a slowdown in monthly job creation and a gradual rise in unemployment. Yet the minutes reflect a growing divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on how best to proceed, with officials now facing conflicting economic signals: inflation that remains above target and a labor market that is losing momentum.

Dissent on Both Sides Reflects Unusual Policy Split

Six policymakers opposed the rate cut in the Fed’s updated economic projections, and two of them officially dissented in the final vote highlighting an increasingly rare duality of disagreement within the central bank. The division was not along traditional hawkish-dovish lines; rather, it reflected differing assessments of inflation persistence versus employment deterioration.

Some participants justified the cut as a forward-looking move to prevent further labor market weakening. Others argued that progress toward the 2% inflation goal had stalled, warning that easing policy too soon might reignite price pressures. This internal divide on both timing and magnitude of future cuts has become more pronounced, marking the second consecutive meeting where such cross-cutting dissents occurred.

Fed Seeks Data Clarity Amid Gaps from Government Shutdown

Further complicating policy decisions was the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which delayed the release of critical economic indicators and contributed to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s inflation and labor assessments. The minutes noted that the "lack of official data" made it harder for some members to fully justify or reject the rate cut, reinforcing the desire among skeptics to wait for a fuller dataset before making further moves.

The Fed will next receive fresh inflation and jobs data on January 9 and January 13, respectively, and these readings are likely to play a decisive role in shaping the committee’s stance for its next meeting on January 27–28.

Rates Likely on Hold as Fed Seeks Clearer Signals

While December's rate cut implies a continued tilt toward accommodation, the policy language and forward guidance have become more neutral, suggesting that further cuts are not guaranteed. The Fed’s projections indicate only one rate cut for 2026, and the committee appears inclined to pause unless clear evidence emerges of either accelerating unemployment or renewed disinflation.

This wait-and-see approach reflects a causal reasoning structure within the Fed: interest rate policy will not lead market expectations but will react to confirmed macroeconomic shifts. If inflation resumes its descent, further easing becomes likely. Conversely, if price pressures persist and employment stabilizes, the Fed may opt for a prolonged hold.

Fed Faces a Narrow Path Between Risks in 2026

The December FOMC minutes illustrate a central bank caught between the crosscurrents of softening labor markets and stubborn inflation. While the latest rate cut aims to safeguard growth, the divided views signal that the Fed is increasingly cautious about missteps that could either undercut recovery or reignite inflation.

Heading into 2026, monetary policy is likely to remain data-dependent and finely calibrated, with the Fed reluctant to commit to any trajectory in the absence of clearer macroeconomic direction. For markets and households alike, uncertainty remains the prevailing theme as the central bank navigates its dual mandate in a post-pandemic, post-inflation economy.

Source: Rueters

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Inflation Moderates in 2025, Boosting Policy Stability Prospects

South Korea’s consumer inflation in 2025 decelerated to 2.1%, down from 2.3% in 2024, according to official data released on Wednesday. This outcome brings inflation squarely within the Bank of Korea’s (BOK) target range and strengthens the case for the central bank to pause further rate adjustments, especially after maintaining the 2.50% policy rate for four consecutive meetings since mid-2025.

The BOK has adopted a cautious monetary stance throughout the year, balancing between supporting economic activity and containing residual inflation pressures. With headline inflation settling close to the target, there is now increased likelihood that monetary policymakers will extend the current rate hold into early 2026, particularly amid global uncertainty and subdued domestic demand.

Monthly and Year-End CPI Figures Show Contained Price Pressures

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 2.3% year-on-year, matching market expectations and suggesting stable price dynamics. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 0.3%, slightly above economists’ forecast of 0.2%, though not enough to significantly alter the broader disinflationary trend. This mild uptick likely reflects seasonal factors rather than a structural resurgence in inflation.

The combination of flat core inflation and stable headline price growth points to a cooling economy where demand-pull inflation is subdued, allowing the central bank greater flexibility in managing rates without triggering financial tightening.

BOK’s Policy Bias Tilts Toward Patience Amid Global Headwinds

The Bank of Korea’s current 2.50% policy rate appears appropriate in light of the 2025 inflation print. Given that inflation has now effectively aligned with the BOK’s medium-term price stability mandate, the probability of imminent rate hikes diminishes. At the same time, the bank has signaled that any easing would be approached conservatively, likely contingent on clear evidence of slowing growth or external shocks.

This approach reflects a causal link between the inflation trajectory and the bank’s rate-setting strategy. As inflation subsides, the need for restrictive policy weakens, creating space for a potential pivot toward growth support if necessary. However, persistent global uncertainties such as oil price volatility and external demand fluctuations are likely to temper any aggressive dovish turn.

Inflation Data Reinforces Policy Credibility and Patience

South Korea’s 2025 inflation outcome serves as a validation of the Bank of Korea’s measured policy response to global and domestic challenges. With inflation now contained and well-anchored near the central target, the monetary authority gains greater flexibility to sustain its current stance without jeopardizing price stability.

Heading into 2026, the BOK is expected to remain cautious, using inflation control success as a platform to navigate slower global growth, demographic headwinds, and the need to foster investment-led recovery. The data underscores a stable macroeconomic environment, but also highlights the delicate balance between price management and economic reacceleration in the post-pandemic era.

Source: Reuters

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Beijing Launches Early 2026 Investment Drive Amid Persistent Economic Pressures

In a bid to counter lingering economic uncertainty and ensure early momentum for the 15th Five-Year Plan, China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has issued an early 2026 funding plan worth 295 billion yuan (approx. $42.2 billion) for “Two Major” projects. These central budget allocations are part of a broader fiscal strategy designed to stimulate domestic demand and reinforce economic resilience.

The “Two Major” initiative encompasses both major national projects and key security-related capacity building, focusing on upgrading infrastructure, enhancing energy independence, and securing critical resources. The program is not new Beijing allocated 800 billion yuan in 2025 to similar priorities but the early release of the 2026 tranche reflects urgency in sustaining momentum amid weak consumer confidence and an uneven post-COVID recovery.

Strategic Infrastructure and Security Drive Anchor Investments

Spokesperson Li Chao of the NDRC emphasized during a Wednesday press conference that the new investments will “provide strong support for a smooth start to the 15th Five-Year Plan.” This statement reflects the government’s intent to front-load public investments to ensure early-year economic traction, a tactic commonly used during periods of macroeconomic stress.

Among the newly approved infrastructure ventures are major projects such as a new airport in Guangzhou, large-scale water resource facilities, and high-end scientific research platforms. Collectively, these projects represent over 400 billion yuan in total investment and are expected to support both near-term employment and long-term productivity.

The airport expansion in Guangzhou highlights China's continued commitment to regional development and transportation integration. Meanwhile, water infrastructure reflects increasing concern over climate resilience and environmental stability, and the research platforms indicate a push for technological self-sufficiency especially critical given rising tensions with the U.S. over advanced tech supply chains.

Causal Link Between Infrastructure and Growth Stabilization

The causal relationship between infrastructure-led investment and economic stabilization has long been central to China’s fiscal strategy. In the face of a sluggish property sector and weak private-sector investment, public infrastructure spending offers a dependable channel for immediate stimulus while also contributing to long-term capacity building.

The NDRC’s early action also sends a signal to local governments and state-owned enterprises to prepare for accelerated implementation of shovel-ready projects in early 2026. This anticipatory fiscal coordination is aimed at minimizing the typical Q1 economic slowdown that follows year-end data consolidation.

Reinforcing Policy Credibility and Strategic Autonomy

By releasing these plans before the start of 2026, Beijing not only asserts its macroeconomic control but also attempts to boost market confidence. Early-stage fiscal mobilization complements monetary policy stability, especially as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has kept rates steady despite calls for further easing.

The emphasis on security-related infrastructure and research platforms also underlines China’s growing prioritization of strategic autonomy. This is particularly significant amid ongoing global supply chain shifts, export control frictions, and competition over advanced technologies. Investments in these areas are not merely about domestic growth they serve as defensive and proactive mechanisms to fortify China’s long-term competitiveness.

Early Investments Set the Tone for 2026 but Structural Headwinds Remain

China’s early rollout of a $42 billion investment package for 2026 marks a proactive step to stabilize the economy and shape the opening trajectory of its new five-year strategy. While the “Two Major” framework remains a core instrument for state-led growth, its effectiveness in reversing broader structural weaknesses such as weak domestic consumption, a fragile property market, and global trade uncertainty will be closely watched.

If executed efficiently, these early investments may cushion the economy against a soft start in 2026. However, sustaining momentum beyond infrastructure will require deeper reforms to mobilize private capital, boost consumer spending, and enhance productivity across non-state sectors. For now, Beijing’s message is clear: strategic spending remains its frontline defense against economic stagnation.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Economic

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday but are set to fall more than 10% for 2025, as supply outpaced demand in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs and OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Brent crude futures , down nearly 18% - the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2020 - are on track for a third straight year of losses, their longest-ever losing streak. The March contract, which expires on Wednesday, rose 22 cents to $61.55 a barrel at 0437 GMT.

BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying expects Brent to dip to $55 a barrel in the first quarter before recovering to $60 a barrel for the rest of 2026 as supply growth is expected to normalise while demand stays flat.

"The reason why we're more bearish than the market in the near term is that we think that U.S. shale producers were able to hedge at high levels," he said.

"So the supply from shale producers will be more consistent and insensitive to price movements."

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.16, up 21 cents, and was headed for a 15% annual decline. The 2025 average prices for both benchmarks are the lowest since 2020, LSEG data showed.

Oil markets had a strong start to 2025 when former President Joe Biden ended his term by imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, disrupting supplies to top buyers China and India.

The war in Ukraine intensified when Ukrainian drones damaged Russian energy infrastructure and disrupted Kazakhstan's oil exports and the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict in June threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, which fanned oil prices.

Adding to geopolitical tensions, top OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a conflict over Yemen and U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports and threatened another strike on Iran.

But prices cooled after OPEC+ accelerated its output increases this year and as concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs weighed on global economic and fuel demand growth.

Key events driving Brent crude oil prices in 2025

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April. The next OPEC+ meeting is on January 4.

Most analysts expect supply to exceed demand next year, with estimates ranging from the International Energy Agency's 3.84 million barrels per day to Goldman Sachs' 2 million bpd.

"If the price really has a substantial fall, I would imagine you will see some cuts (from OPEC+)," said Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist. "But it probably does need to fall quite a bit further from here on - maybe in the low $50s."

"If today's price simply prevails, after the pause in Q1, they'll probably continue to unwind these cuts."

John Driscoll, managing director of consultancy JTD Energy, expects geopolitical risks to support oil prices despite fundamentals pointing to an oversupply.

"Everybody's saying it'll get weaker into 2026 and even beyond," he said. "But I wouldn't ignore the geopolitics and the Trump factor is going to be playing out because he wants to be involved in everything."

"We are living in a powder keg and I think that is kind of your ultimate floor," he added.

Source: Reuters

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Tariff Move Sparks Optimism Across Indian Steel Sector

India’s equity markets closed 2025 on a bullish note for the domestic steel industry, as the government’s latest trade intervention sent steel stocks rallying. Shares of major producers including Tata Steel and JSW Steel climbed 2.4% and 4.3% respectively, leading gains on the benchmark Nifty 50 index, which rose 0.3% overall. Other producers such as SAIL, Jindal Stainless, and Jindal Steel also saw gains between 2.5% and 3.6%.

The catalyst behind this rally was New Delhi’s imposition of a safeguard duty on select steel imports a tariff designed to counteract the influx of cheaper foreign steel, predominantly from China. The new duty structure will be implemented over a three-year period, starting with a 12% levy in the first year, tapering to 11.5% and 11% in subsequent years. This gradual reduction reflects an intent to provide short-term relief to domestic producers while eventually reintroducing market competitiveness.

Structural Protection to Prevent Injury to Domestic Industry

The tariffs were recommended by India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), which identified a “recent, sudden, sharp and significant increase in imports” that posed a serious threat to local manufacturers. This statement establishes a direct causal relationship between import volumes particularly low-priced steel from China and the erosion of profitability and market share among Indian steel producers.

The finance ministry’s official order, released Tuesday, formalized these recommendations into a binding trade measure. The government’s swift action demonstrates a strategic use of trade policy to stabilize the domestic steel industry, which has been under pressure from volatile commodity prices and global oversupply.

Market Reaction Underscores Investor Confidence

The immediate market reaction reflected investor confidence in the effectiveness of the tariff. The Nifty Metal Index hit a new all-time high of 11,164.40, having risen in 12 of the past 14 trading sessions. This upward momentum has been supported by a global rebound in commodity prices and domestic policy clarity, positioning Indian metal producers for improved margins in 2026.

Notably, this rally aligns with broader optimism surrounding infrastructure spending, firm global demand, and sustained capital investment in sectors such as construction, automobiles, and defense all of which rely heavily on domestic steel.

Policy Timing and Broader Trade Implications

The timing of the tariff, late in the year, reflects strategic coordination with broader economic priorities. As India prepares for a year of expected growth-driven capital expenditure and pre-election fiscal maneuvering, protecting core industrial sectors becomes politically and economically expedient.

While the government has not explicitly targeted China in its public statement, the implication is clear: curbing Chinese overcapacity and price dumping is a top priority. This mirrors global trade tensions, where several countries including the U.S. and EU have also levied duties on Chinese steel and aluminum exports.

Short-Term Support with Long-Term Competitive Implications

The safeguard duty provides immediate relief to Indian producers, improving their price competitiveness in the short term. However, the long-term success of this intervention will depend on whether domestic firms use the protection period to modernize production, improve efficiency, and reduce cost structures.

A failure to capitalize on this window could leave the sector vulnerable once the tariffs begin to decline. Conversely, if companies respond with strategic capacity upgrades and increased downstream integration, India’s steel industry could emerge stronger and more globally competitive.

India’s three-year safeguard duty on steel imports marks a decisive step in shielding its domestic industry from the adverse effects of low-cost global competition. While stock market euphoria reflects short-term optimism, the policy’s long-term value will depend on whether Indian steelmakers seize this opportunity to innovate, diversify, and strengthen their resilience ahead of global market re-entry.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Silver Surges to Historic Highs Amid Supply Constraints and Strategic Demand

In a year dominated by macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical disruptions, and shifting monetary expectations, silver outshone all other commodities in 2025 with a dramatic 161% surge, breaching the $80-per-ounce mark for the first time. This performance far exceeded major equity indices, currencies, and most other commodities, cementing silver’s role as both a safe haven and an industrial linchpin.

The underlying drivers behind this performance were both structural and financial. From an industrial perspective, silver benefited from strong end-use demand in electric vehicles, solar panels, and electronics. On the financial side, weakening confidence in the U.S. dollar down nearly 9.5% for the year combined with a low interest rate outlook for 2026, sparked widespread investor rotation into precious metals. These causal forces created a self-reinforcing cycle of rising prices and tightened physical availability.

Additional momentum came after the U.S. formally designated silver a critical mineral, while China introduced new export restrictions, adding to global scarcity concerns. These policy decisions directly affected market flows, driving up premiums for physical silver and pushing spot prices sharply higher. Traders reported physical offers at prices up to $10 above market rates, highlighting the intensity of the supply squeeze.

Gold, Platinum, and Palladium Ride Safe-Haven Wave

Gold also saw a robust year, gaining 66% amid central bank buying and geopolitical risk hedging. While not as explosive as silver, gold's rally to record highs reflected its role as a hedge against both inflation and monetary instability. Other precious metals like platinum and palladium posted strong annual gains, supported by industrial demand and speculative inflows.

Commodities analysts, including Jason Ying of BNP Paribas, suggest that risks from 2025 ranging from geopolitical tensions to rate uncertainty are unlikely to dissipate quickly in 2026, maintaining upward pressure on precious metals.

Copper, Tin, and Aluminium Benefit from Energy Transition and AI Infrastructure

Outside of the precious complex, industrial metals also had a standout year. Copper rose nearly 44%, hitting a record $12,960 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Demand was bolstered by AI-related data infrastructure expansion and global green energy rollouts. Disruptions at major mines compounded the supply deficit, making the rally largely driven by fundamentals rather than short-term speculation.

Tin and aluminium also gained sharply, up 44% and 17% respectively. Tin’s rally was tied to export restrictions in Myanmar and Indonesia, while aluminium prices were supported by China’s cap on smelting capacity and strong demand from electric grids and battery systems. These cases illustrate clear causal relationships between policy restrictions, industrial application demand, and supply-side tightening.

Iron ore showed relative resilience despite a decline in China’s crude steel output. Beijing’s move to relax homebuying restrictions in major cities helped maintain demand for construction inputs, showing how stimulus policies in China continue to shape global resource demand.

Energy Markets Falter Under Weight of Surplus

Crude oil bucked the trend of hard asset gains, falling around 15% in 2025 despite multiple geopolitical disruptions, including drone strikes on Russian infrastructure and sanctions on Venezuela. Brent crude is now poised for its longest-ever streak of annual losses.

The primary cause of the decline lies in OPEC+’s output decisions and weak global demand. Since April, the group added nearly 2.9 million barrels per day to the market. Though production increases paused for Q1 2026, the damage was already done: expectations of a 2026 oil glut remain high. Analysts like Martijn Rats of Morgan Stanley expect further cuts only if prices collapse into the $50-per-barrel range, otherwise gradual unwinding is likely to continue.

Agricultural Commodities Underperform as Supply Outpaces Demand

Agricultural markets delivered some of the worst performances of the year. Cocoa fell by 48%, reversing its gains from 2024 when poor West African crops led to record prices. Improved harvests and weakened demand pulled prices down sharply, reflecting a direct inverse relationship between supply recovery and price trajectory.

Sugar and robusta coffee both shed roughly 20%, while rubber and palm oil each lost 9% amid stronger output and sluggish industrial demand. The exception was soybeans, which ended the year flat-to-positive thanks to a late rebound in Chinese imports after earlier trade tensions with the U.S. eased.

Wheat and corn continued to struggle under ample global supply conditions, reinforcing bearish sentiment across the softs complex. Analysts anticipate some support for palm oil in 2026 from Indonesia’s renewed biodiesel blending mandates, though the upside may be limited by weak global consumption patterns.

2025 Divides the Commodity Complex Along Strategic Lines

The commodity space in 2025 became starkly polarized. On one end, precious and industrial metals led by silver and copper surged to multi-decade or all-time highs on strong strategic demand, monetary hedging, and constrained supply. On the other, oil and agricultural commodities stumbled under the weight of oversupply and softening global growth.

As 2026 begins, the outlook for metals remains bullish, anchored in structural demand from technology and clean energy, alongside expectations of easier monetary policy. In contrast, agricultural and energy commodities face headwinds unless producers implement meaningful output curbs or demand surprises to the upside. The commodity winners of 2026 may again be those aligned with geopolitics, innovation, and infrastructure not traditional consumption cycles.

Source: Reuters

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Manufacturing Recovery Signals Late-Year Economic Stabilization

China’s economy showed a surprising uptick in December 2025 as manufacturing activity returned to expansion for the first time since March, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.1, exceeding both the previous month’s reading of 49.2 and analyst forecasts. A PMI above 50 denotes expansion, indicating that China's industrial sector has found tentative footing after nearly three quarters of decline.

This improvement, while modest, marks a crucial psychological shift. It suggests that stabilization policies and modest internal demand may have started to reverse the slowdown, offering relief to policymakers heading into 2026. More importantly, the expansion occurred without additional central bank stimulus, as the People's Bank of China opted to keep loan prime rates unchanged earlier in the week an implicit vote of confidence in existing conditions.

Composite Gains Reflect Broader, Though Fragile, Economic Momentum

The composite PMI which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors also rose to 50.7 from November’s 49.7, indicating a broader improvement beyond just factory output. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, reached 50.2, further supporting a cautiously optimistic view that the economy is entering 2026 with some momentum.

Chief NBS statistician Huo Lihui noted that new orders rose in December, a sign of “significant expansion” in both production and demand. This reflects a causal relationship: increased domestic product launches and business development activity directly contributed to order growth, reinforcing production pipelines.

Private Sector Data Echoes Official Readings

Corroborating the government’s report, an independent PMI survey by RatingDog also showed manufacturing rising to 50.1 from 49.9, surpassing expectations. Yao Yu, the firm’s founder, highlighted that new orders had increased for a seventh consecutive month, largely driven by domestic market dynamics rather than export-led recovery.

Still, Yao cautioned that business optimism remains below historical norms. Confidence for 2026, while present, has softened likely a reflection of persistent concerns over the real estate slump, sluggish consumer spending, and uncertainties in global demand.

Uneven Gains Point to Structural Weaknesses

While the headline numbers offer short-term encouragement, the underlying data exposes structural imbalances. Large enterprises were the primary contributors to the December improvement, with their PMI rising to 50.8 up 1.5 percentage points from November. In contrast, medium-sized firms hovered just below the expansion threshold at 49.8, and small enterprises slipped further into contraction territory, with their PMI falling to 48.6.

This divergence suggests that stimulus and recovery policies are disproportionately benefiting well-capitalized, state-backed, or export-facing firms, while smaller businesses often more sensitive to domestic demand and financing conditions continue to struggle. This is a consequence of policy implementation and sectoral dynamics rather than a simple cyclical lag.

Markets React Tepidly Amid Caution on Structural Challenges

Financial markets reflected a mixed response to the data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.83%, indicating skepticism about the broader recovery. Meanwhile, the mainland CSI 300 rose 0.33%, signaling some confidence among domestic investors. This divergence suggests that while markets welcomed the headline PMI, they remain wary of deeper issues like property sector weakness and lackluster consumer sentiment.

Indeed, November data on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment all underperformed expectations, reinforcing concerns that the recovery lacks sufficient breadth. The central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady rather than introduce further easing suggests a preference for policy conservatism amid financial stability concerns.

Positive Surprise, But Not Yet a Turning Point

Economists such as Hao Zhou from Guotai Junan International described the data as “a very good, positive surprise,” but also cautioned against reading too much into one month’s figures. While the improvement signals that the economy may be stabilizing, the fundamental drivers of long-term growth consumer demand, private sector confidence, and structural reform remain weak.

In this context, the December rebound in manufacturing appears more like a tactical bounce than a strategic turnaround. Without deeper rebalancing and sustained policy follow-through, particularly toward supporting small businesses and reenergizing consumption, China’s economic trajectory in 2026 remains uncertain.

The unexpected expansion in China’s manufacturing sector offers a brief moment of relief for the world’s second-largest economy. However, the recovery remains fragile, unevenly distributed, and heavily reliant on large enterprises. As China enters 2026, policymakers face the dual challenge of maintaining growth momentum while addressing persistent structural weaknesses particularly in the property market, labor outlook, and domestic consumption. The December PMI rebound may be a hopeful signal, but it is not yet a definitive shift in China’s broader economic narrative.

Source: CNBC

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Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divisions Over December Rate Cut as Officials Weigh Inflation Risks and Labor Weakness

Rate Cut Approved Amid Disagreement Over Economic Trajectory

Dissent on Both Sides Reflects Unusual Policy Split

Fed Seeks Data Clarity Amid Gaps from Government Shutdown

Rates Likely on Hold as Fed Seeks Clearer Signals

Fed Faces a Narrow Path Between Risks in 2026

Source: Rueters

South Korea’s 2025 Inflation Eases to 2.1%, Aligning with Central Bank Target and Supporting Policy Pause

Inflation Moderates in 2025, Boosting Policy Stability Prospects

Monthly and Year-End CPI Figures Show Contained Price Pressures

BOK’s Policy Bias Tilts Toward Patience Amid Global Headwinds

Inflation Data Reinforces Policy Credibility and Patience

Source: Reuters

China Unveils $42 Billion in Early 2026 Investment for ‘Two Major’ Projects to Jumpstart Growth

Beijing Launches Early 2026 Investment Drive Amid Persistent Economic Pressures

Strategic Infrastructure and Security Drive Anchor Investments

Causal Link Between Infrastructure and Growth Stabilization

Reinforcing Policy Credibility and Strategic Autonomy

Early Investments Set the Tone for 2026 but Structural Headwinds Remain

Source: Reuters

Oil Edges Up But Brent On Course For Longest Stretch Of Annual Losses In 2025

Key events driving Brent crude oil prices in 2025

Source: Reuters

India’s Steel Stocks Rally as Government Imposes Tariffs to Shield Domestic Industry from Chinese Imports

Tariff Move Sparks Optimism Across Indian Steel Sector

Structural Protection to Prevent Injury to Domestic Industry

Market Reaction Underscores Investor Confidence

Policy Timing and Broader Trade Implications

Short-Term Support with Long-Term Competitive Implications

Source: Reuters

Silver Leads 2025 Commodity Surge as Precious and Industrial Metals Outshine Oil and Agriculture

Silver Surges to Historic Highs Amid Supply Constraints and Strategic Demand

Gold, Platinum, and Palladium Ride Safe-Haven Wave

Copper, Tin, and Aluminium Benefit from Energy Transition and AI Infrastructure

Energy Markets Falter Under Weight of Surplus

Agricultural Commodities Underperform as Supply Outpaces Demand

2025 Divides the Commodity Complex Along Strategic Lines

Source: Reuters

China's Manufacturing Surprises on the Upside, But Recovery Remains Uneven Across Sectors

Manufacturing Recovery Signals Late-Year Economic Stabilization

Composite Gains Reflect Broader, Though Fragile, Economic Momentum

Private Sector Data Echoes Official Readings

Uneven Gains Point to Structural Weaknesses

Markets React Tepidly Amid Caution on Structural Challenges

Positive Surprise, But Not Yet a Turning Point

Source: CNBC

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