ECB Warns of Recession Risks as Global Trade Tensions Threaten Eurozone Stability

Economic

Summary:

ECB executive board member Piero Cipollone warned that a global trade war could trigger a recession in the Eurozone, with reduced investment, lower GDP growth, and a risk of disinflation, reinforcing the likelihood of an ECB rate cut...

Eurozone Faces Recession Threat as ECB Flags Trade War Fallout and Disinflation Risk

Amid escalating global trade tensions, the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised serious concerns about the economic fallout from a prolonged trade war. In a stark assessment delivered on April 29, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone projected that the Eurozone could face notable declines in growth and investment, coupled with a disinflationary environment, if trade disruptions persist.

Economic Drag from Trade Fragmentation

Cipollone emphasized that the Eurozone may see business investment decline by approximately 1.1% in the first year of a full-scale global trade conflict. Moreover, the region’s real GDP growth could fall by 0.2 percentage points between 2025 and 2026. Additional volatility in global financial markets, which has already emerged in the wake of U.S. protectionist policy moves, could contribute another 0.2 percentage point decline in GDP by 2025.

While the impact on inflation remains ambiguous, Cipollone stressed that in the short to medium term, the consequences might be disinflationary rather than inflationary—undermining already tepid price growth across the Eurozone. These projections reinforce the market’s expectations for a rate cut at the ECB’s upcoming June 2025 meeting, as policymakers seek to cushion the economy against external shocks.

Shift Away from a Dollar-Dominated Global System

The ECB’s warning also reflects broader structural changes in the global economy. Cipollone underscored the risks posed by an increasingly fragmented global trade system. As the U.S. pursues aggressive tariff policies, the long-term effects—slower growth, persistent inflation, and ballooning public debt—could undermine trust in the dollar's dominance as the world’s primary reserve and trade currency.

This erosion of confidence in U.S.-led financial architecture, Cipollone warned, could accelerate the emergence of alternative regional systems and weaken global economic cohesion.

Central Banks Urged to Strengthen Crisis Readiness

In light of these risks, the ECB board member urged central banks to prepare for potential capital flight, payment system disruptions, and heightened currency volatility. This includes developing robust contingency plans and crisis management frameworks.

Cipollone also called on G20 nations to reaffirm their commitment to open trade and resist protectionist impulses that risk triggering "beggar-thy-neighbour" dynamics, which harm global economic stability. He suggested convening a high-level international trade summit to reinforce collective action and promote more equitable economic adjustment across countries.

Policy Urgency Amid Systemic Transition

As the Eurozone teeters on the edge of disinflation and slowing investment, the ECB’s message is clear: the consequences of uncoordinated trade policies now extend far beyond tariffs and balance sheets. They are reshaping the architecture of the global economy itself.

While short-term stimulus, such as interest rate cuts, may help buffer the impact, the deeper challenge lies in preserving international cooperation in an increasingly multipolar and protectionist world. The ECB’s call for collective action may be one of the last efforts to prevent fragmentation from becoming the new normal in global trade.

Source: FT

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The euro zone economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, starting 2025 on a modestly upbeat note before a trade war with the U.S., a surging currency and deteriorating business sentiment weaken it, data showed on Wednesday.

The world's second-largest economic bloc has barely grown over the past several years as businesses held back investment and households tried to rebuild wealth lost due to high inflation, putting Europe on the back foot even before the latest escalation in trade tensions.

While 2025 was long seen as a key year in its gradual recovery, the outlook turned on U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" and policymakers warn that permanent damage has already been done to the global economy, even if there is an eventual resolution to the tensions.

The 20 nations sharing the euro currency saw their economy expand by 0.4% in the first quarter, beating expectations for 0.2%, driven by quick growth in Spain, Eurostat said.

However, the underlying trend was significantly weaker as the data was distorted by a 3.2% expansion in Ireland driven largely by activity among big foreign companies based there for tax reasons.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, grew by just 0.2% while France expanded by 0.1% and Italy by 0.3%, suggesting that excluding Ireland, the bloc was growing close to the 0.2% expected by economists.

Since the end of the quarter, the outlook has darkened significantly.

Some of Europe's largest firms like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz have issued warnings in recent days that tariffs will weigh on profits, hold back sales and may curtail investment.

Meanwhile, a key sentiment indicator published on Tuesday showed a major dip, erasing any hope of a recovery and putting the indicator on a downward trend after it flatlined for most of 2024.

The European Central Bank has already said that on top of the trade war, the financial market turbulence set off by U.S. policies and the general deterioration in sentiment will all dampen growth.

But the bloc was only seen expanding by less than 1% even before Trump's tariff bombshell, suggesting that any other major damage would put it close to a recession.

However, most economists and policymakers say that the U.S. is bound to take a bigger hit than other economies, creating an incentive for the Trump administration to scale back its policies.

While the ECB has been cutting interest rates quickly to insulate the bloc and will likely ease again in June, it is relatively powerless against such a fundamentally broad-based downturn.

Increased fiscal spending by the new German government on defence and infrastructure is bound to help, but that will take time to legislate and implement, suggesting that little to no fiscal boost is likely this year.

A mild positive of the trade tensions is that inflation fears have largely dissipated. Dropping energy prices, a strong euro and weaker growth are all likely to put downward pressure on prices, giving the ECB space to lower rates further to support the economy.

Nevertheless, that increases the risk that inflation starts to undershoot the ECB's 2% target, especially if China, largely shut out of the U.S. markets, starts dumping its surplus goods on other economies.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

● USD/JPY tiptoes higher; forms encouraging candlestick pattern

● A slew of obstacles still lie ahead; bullish outlook above 147.50

USDJPY attempted a modest recovery after dipping to 141.95 early in the week. While Tuesday’s bullish move was limited, the formation of a small, inverted hammer candlestick suggests potential for upward momentum. Confirmation, however, would require a solid green candlestick to follow.

The upward trajectory in the RSI and MACD keeps hopes for a rebound alive as investors await the release of US Q1 GDP growth and core PCE data later today. On the other hand, the falling stochastics undermine the strength of any potential bullish action, while the negative slope in the exponential moving averages (EMAs) lends further support to the prevailing downtrend.

Immediate resistance lies at the 143.00 mark, followed by the 20-day EMA and the 144.23–145.35 constraining zone. A break higher could open the door to the 50-day EMA and the tentative resistance trendline near 147.50 – also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 downtrend.

On the downside, a close below 142.20 could drag the pair back toward 139.50–140.00. A deeper decline could test support at 137.70–138.50, and potentially 137.20, a break of which could clear the way to 132.85.

In summary, while USDJPY bulls remain cautiously active, a confirmed bullish outlook hinges on a decisive move above 147.50.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Britain’s Financial Tech Future At Crossroads Amid Regulation, Funding Gaps

Once celebrated as a global leader in fintech innovation, the U.K. now stands at a critical juncture. Industry executives warn that London is losing its competitive edge as an incubator for digital financial services and cryptocurrency ventures. Despite a thriving ecosystem and a rich talent pool, fintech and crypto entrepreneurs increasingly find themselves blocked by unclear regulations, tight funding environments, and restrictive banking relationships.

The central concern is that while the U.K. pioneered open banking and electronic money licensing, it has yet to extend the same regulatory clarity to crypto startups. This discrepancy is driving tech founders to explore opportunities in rival markets like Singapore, Hong Kong, the UAE, and even the U.S., where crypto regulation, despite being politically volatile, is trending toward greater permissiveness under the current administration.

Innovation Outpaced By Safety-First Regulation

Jaidev Janardana, CEO of U.K. digital bank Zopa, highlights a structural shift in the country’s regulatory philosophy: a prioritization of "safety and soundness" over innovation. While this risk-averse approach might safeguard the system from volatility, it also slows the scaling of new ventures. Janardana compares the U.K.’s stagnation with the dynamism of Asian markets, warning that the U.K. may soon trail not just the U.S. but also jurisdictions across the Global South.

This sentiment is echoed by Lisa Jacobs, CEO of Funding Circle, who notes that Brexit continues to hinder the U.K.’s appeal to global talent. Meanwhile, Tim Levene of Augmentum Fintech underlines a funding dilemma: venture capital is increasingly flowing to more aggressive regions, including the Gulf states and Asia, where regulatory environments are less ambiguous and capital pools are deeper.

Crypto Firms Face Structural Roadblocks

Crypto executives paint a more urgent picture. Keith Grose, head of the U.K. at Coinbase, says the sector is struggling with "debanking"—the practice of major U.K. banks closing or refusing accounts for crypto-related entities. Without access to basic banking services, Grose argues, it's impossible to "build the future of the financial system" within the U.K.

Further compounding the challenge is a slow-moving regulatory timeline. While the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) published a roadmap last year to roll out full crypto regulation by 2026, firms say they cannot wait that long. The draft rules released this week mark a step forward, but executives emphasize that real innovation requires regulatory certainty—particularly on issues like stablecoin reserves and digital asset lending.

Cassie Craddock of Ripple points out that while the EU has implemented the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and countries like the U.S., Singapore, and UAE are accelerating pro-industry reforms, the U.K. still lags behind. With stablecoin volumes already exceeding Visa and Mastercard, she argues, the opportunity to lead is closing fast.

The Case For Urgent Reform

The potential long-term damage is not theoretical. A recent survey of over 80 crypto firms found that 50% had either been denied banking services or had their accounts closed. The fear among innovators is not only that capital and talent will flee to more supportive markets, but also that the U.K. will lose its influence in shaping global digital finance standards.

Executives maintain cautious optimism. “I think the U.K. will get it right,” Grose says, “but if you get it wrong, you drive innovation to other markets.” The message from the industry is clear: the time for deliberation is over. If Britain wants to remain a global fintech and crypto leader, it must prioritize smart, agile regulation and restore investor confidence before the innovation economy migrates elsewhere.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

China’s New Tech Surge Marks Global Turning Point In AI And EV Innovation

While global attention fixates on tariff tensions and fractured trade talks, a sweeping transformation is unfolding within China’s technology landscape. From generative AI breakthroughs to electric vehicle innovations showcased at the Shanghai Auto Show, Chinese firms are demonstrating that, even under geopolitical pressure, their momentum in next-generation tech is accelerating at an unprecedented pace.

In April alone, several major milestones underscored this shift. BYD unveiled five new EV models, while Pony.ai revealed cost-slashing robotaxis aimed at profitability. Huawei’s advanced driver-assist technology now enables valet-style auto-parking, and AI-driven content creation from platforms like iQiyi is reshaping the media production process with tools that didn’t exist mere months ago.

Generative AI Becomes A Strategic Pillar

At the heart of China’s tech boom is generative AI. Companies like Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Shengshu Technology are rolling out increasingly powerful video generation models capable of rendering near-cinematic visuals. Meanwhile, iQiyi’s virtual production suite uses AI to cut costs and swiftly adapt content formats, a leap that executives say was unthinkable just weeks prior.

This wave of AI development is backed by sustained investment. “We’re seeing a significant acceleration in AI investment in China,” said Tim Wang of Monolith Management, citing foundational model breakthroughs and optimism around consumer-facing applications. In parallel, companies are deploying AI-powered digital avatars for e-commerce, a strategy Baidu says cuts livestreaming costs by 80% while boosting conversion rates.

Policy As Catalyst, Not Crutch

Unlike past cycles where tech surges were export-driven, this boom is heavily supported by domestic policy. Beijing’s playbook includes subsidies for high-tech firms, incentives to attract global PhDs, and funding schemes that link R&D with market deployment. Top talents in AI and engineering are being lured with payouts of up to $690,000 and generous housing allowances.

DeepSeek’s release of a free AI model rivaling ChatGPT in January shattered expectations that U.S. chip restrictions would cripple China’s AI ambitions. Instead, it catalyzed further development, reaffirming that China’s long-standing investments in education and research are bearing fruit despite external constraints.

Electric Vehicles: From Plateau To Global Expansion

In EVs, while domestic competition remains intense—prompting a temporary growth plateau—firms like Nio, Zeekr, and BYD are extending their global ambitions. Automation, charging speed, and software integration are converging rapidly, reducing what was once a multi-year innovation cycle to months. Huawei’s role as a supplier of vehicle software reflects a new industrial integration between telecom and transport.

Yet, EV differentiation is now key. Analysts at AlixPartners note that the industry must shift from feature parity to brand value creation, traditionally a strength of foreign automakers. Still, with scale, speed, and software as its new pillars, China’s dominance in the domestic EV market is already translating into growing international presence.

Navigating Growth Amid Structural Risks

Despite these impressive gains, the tech boom is not immune to broader economic pressures. Goldman Sachs recently highlighted that industrial profits outside high-tech industries remain flat, and the European Chamber of Commerce warns of overproduction risks reminiscent of earlier "Made in China 2025" missteps.

Nevertheless, state-backed employment support, newly approved nuclear and hydrogen energy projects, and a firm emphasis on AI development from President Xi suggest that China views innovation as both an economic shield and a geopolitical strategy.

A Fragmented World, A Focused China

Even as U.S.-China trade dialogue remains uncertain—with no confirmed contact between Trump and Xi despite claims otherwise—Chinese policymakers are pushing forward. At a recent Politburo meeting, employment stability and technological self-reliance were named top priorities. At the same time, China’s central bank and finance ministry participated in global economic discussions in Washington, subtly reaffirming engagement even amid rivalry.

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan held steady against the dollar and equity markets reflected mixed signals. While the CSI 300 remained flat, the Hang Seng Index—lifted by tech gains—climbed nearly 10% year-to-date, underlining a tale of diverging confidence between old-line sectors and future-focused innovation.

What began as a defensive push for self-reliance has evolved into a multidimensional tech boom. AI, EVs, and platform economics are no longer catch-up plays for China—they are now arenas where Chinese companies are shaping global benchmarks. While policy and capital remain central to this ascent, it is the commercial agility and technological velocity of Chinese firms that now demand global recognition.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Dollar Tumbles As Tariff Chaos Shakes Confidence In U.S. Assets

The U.S. dollar is heading toward its sharpest monthly decline in over two years as markets absorb the cumulative shock of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies. While the greenback staged a modest uptick early in Asian trading on April 30, it remains down 4.76% this month based on the USD Index—a loss not seen since November 2022. The decline is largely driven by capital flight from U.S. assets and a broad loss of confidence in the stability of the American economic policy environment.

Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping retaliatory tariffs triggered widespread asset reallocation away from the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, long considered global safe havens. Although temporary concessions—including a 90-day tariff delay and softer rhetoric toward China—helped stabilize sentiment in recent days, the damage to investor trust appears to be lasting.

Currencies Reprice As Risk Paradigms Shift

In April, the euro appreciated by over 5.2% against the dollar, its best monthly performance since late 2022. The yen rose more than 5%, while the Swiss franc posted a decade-best monthly gain exceeding 7%. These gains highlight a shifting preference toward alternative safe havens, particularly in an environment where the U.S. appears to be fueling both inflation and geopolitical instability through unilateral trade actions.

The British pound, despite recent volatility, gained 3.8% on the month—its strongest showing since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rose over 2% as investors sought out exposure to commodities and emerging market proxies with less direct exposure to U.S. trade policy risk.

Japan’s yen was particularly notable, climbing ahead of the Bank of Japan’s expected hold on interest rates. The yen’s strength is partially reflective of its role as a traditional hedge against dollar turmoil, but also signals renewed investor interest in currencies insulated from direct tariff retaliation.

Investor Anxiety Reflects In Broader Macro Indicators

Market unease is not limited to currency movements. U.S. consumer confidence, measured by the Conference Board, dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years. The March trade deficit in goods surged to a record high as importers raced to front-load purchases before tariff enforcement. Labor data adds another layer of ambiguity: while job creation slowed significantly in March, layoff numbers did not spike, suggesting a labor market at risk but not yet collapsing.

UPS’s recent layoff of 20,000 workers and General Motors’ withdrawal of its 2025 outlook further reflect growing corporate uncertainty. These announcements underscore how tariff-induced instability is reshaping employment forecasts and corporate capital planning.

Traders Expect Bold Fed Response If Labor Weakens

David Kohl, chief economist at Julius Baer, warned that the inflationary pressure sparked by tariffs has cornered the Fed, forcing a delayed response to weak growth. According to Kohl, the Fed is likely to tolerate deteriorating macro data until it sees direct labor market deterioration—at which point it may respond aggressively.

ING economists echoed this view, attributing Q1 2025 GDP weakness to excessive pre-tariff stockpiling. They estimate the import surge could represent a major drag on quarterly growth. Consensus estimates suggest GDP will be barely positive—or even contract—once the official data is released later today.

Looking ahead, markets now expect the Fed to enact two 50 basis point cuts at its July and September FOMC meetings. While inflation risks persist, the looming threat of recession may outweigh price concerns in the central bank’s next move.

Dollar At A Crossroads As Global Leadership Questions Mount

The U.S. dollar, once the unshakable pillar of the global financial system, is now under sustained pressure from both policy inconsistency and international repositioning. While the dollar’s dominance is not imminently threatened, its role as a haven is being re-evaluated. With inflation rising, confidence falling, and geopolitical volatility surging, the greenback’s short-term outlook remains highly vulnerable.

Unless Washington reestablishes policy clarity and economic leadership, alternative assets—be they yen, francs, or commodities—are poised to gain further traction as global risk hedges.

Source: FT

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Patricia Franklin

Commodity

Economic

Q1 Gold Demand Explodes; Investors Rush To Safety As Global Uncertainty Mounts_1

A new paradigm of economic risk and uncertainty has propelled physical demand for gold as the precious metal sees its best start to the year since 2016, according to the latest report from the World Gold Council.

Global gold consumption increased to 1,206 tonnes in the first three months of the year, up 1% from the first quarter of 2025, the WGC said in its quarterly Gold Demand Trends report, published Wednesday.

Q1 Gold Demand Explodes; Investors Rush To Safety As Global Uncertainty Mounts_2

In an interview, Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, said that the latest data show three robust pillars of support as retail investors continue to buy physical bars and coins, along with a renewed appetite for gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

At the same time, central banks continue to buy gold and diversify their official foreign reserves.

Cavatoni said that the U.S. government’s plan to usher in a new structure in global trade with tariffs on imported goods is creating a lot of uncertainty, which is forcing investors, portfolio managers, and central banks to reassess how they balance out risks in their portfolios.

He noted that frothy risk assets and precarious debt levels are even causing some to question the reliability of U.S. Treasuries.

“ Banks are no longer taking risk capital and putting it to work. I think risk assets move in tandem a lot more likely than they have in the past. And a lot more severely than they have in the past,” he said. “U.S. Treasuries are also being looked at differently than they have in the past. This leaves people trying to find that balance in their portfolios and they are turning to gold.”

Cavatoni also noted that investment demand has also become broad-based, with both Western and Eastern consumers looking for ounces.

“We continue to see natural ebbs and flows in the price, but we're staying at these elevated levels,” he said. “This is telling us that this is fundamental buying as opposed to just pure push and pull of speculation. Because of this uncertainty in markets, the case remains strong for us to see gold continuing to be consumed on a very, very large scale, both among investors and central banks.”

Investors flooding back into gold-backed ETFs

While unprecedented gold demand has been driving prices to record highs for the last year, one important segment of the marketplace has been missing, until now.

Investor demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds has been lackluster, to say the least, in the last few years; however, demand has picked up significantly since January.

According to data from the WGC, 226.5 tonnes of gold flowed into global gold-backed ETFs in the first three months of the year, a sharp contrast to 113 tonnes in outflows reported in the first quarter of 2024.

At the same time, bullion bar and coin demand increased to 325.4 tonnes, up 3% from 317.3 tonnes reported last year.

“Global gold-backed ETFs witnessed a broad-based revival, with investors from across the world adding significantly to their holdings. This has been replicated in investment interest for gold bars and coins, with very few markets witnessing a decline in holdings,” the analysts said in the report.

A new trend emerging in the gold ETF market is that Asian investors are becoming more active, and Cavatoni noted that in the last month, Chinese demand has surpassed North American ETF inflows.

Cavatoni said that it is difficult to see investment demand souring anytime soon. He added that even if geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty eased, “the genie is out of the bottle” and it will take time to repair damaged relationships and rebuild trust among allies.

“ It's hard to find a scenario that takes gold prices sharply lower,” he said. “ Strategic allocations for the purposes of mitigating risk and uncertainty remain super strong. Investors aren’t necessarily looking at the price and saying, ‘At $3,000, that's too expensive for me.’ They are taking a step back, looking at the broader picture, and seeing gold as a component of their portfolio. I see this as a case for gold prices to be well-supported at these levels.”

Central bank demand off to a slow start

Along with robust investment demand, the WGC says central bank purchases remain a solid pillar in the marketplace, albeit demand has slowed from the record pace set last year.

Q1 Gold Demand Explodes; Investors Rush To Safety As Global Uncertainty Mounts_3

According to the data, central banks bought 243.7 tonnes of gold between January and March, down 21% from the 309.9 tonnes bought last year.

“While this demand was markedly lower than the previous quarter, in absolute terms it was still healthy at 24% above the five-year quarterly average, and just 9% below the average seen over the last three years of very elevated demand,” the analysts said. “The overall buying trend is now entering its sixteenth year, fresh off the back of colossal buying in the last three years. But what’s next for central bank gold demand? We anticipate that heightened levels of uncertainty will maintain gold’s role as a valuable component of international reserves going forward, and this will support demand in the near term.”

Although the spotlight in the gold market is shining on investment demand and central bank purchases, Cavatoni said that the tech sector is an unsung hero in the marketplace.

The report said that industrial demand consumed 80.5 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, roughly unchanged from last year.

Cavatoni said that with so much uncertainty in the global economy, stable tech demand could be seen as a good sign that the economy is more resilient than some might expect.

“This tells us that demand for high-end consumables remains relatively stable. Consumers are not swapping out their purchases just yet,” he said.

Jewelry demand weakens in Q1

While the gold market has been firing on all cylinders in the first three months of the year, there is one weak pillar in the marketplace.

The WGC said that jewelry consumption was sharply weaker in the first quarter, with global demand falling to 380.3 tonnes, a decline of 21% compared to last year.

Cavatoni said that the decline is not surprising, as consumers couldn’t compete with higher prices. According to the report, demand fell to its lowest level since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic when the global economy shut down.

“Record gold prices dictated global trends in gold jewellery demand in the first quarter,” the WGC said in the report.

The report noted that Chinese jewelry demand was extremely weak in the first quarter, with purchases falling 35% compared to last year.

“Record gold prices at a time of sluggish income growth and a shift towards pure gold investment products drove a sharp decline in China,” the analysts said. “As the price continued to set new record highs, consumers preferred to sit on the sidelines and/or to shift to lighter-weight, more affordable items.”

Although jewelry demand has struggled in recent months, Cavatoni said that he expects demand to come back if prices stabilize. He explained that volatility, rather than higher prices, spooks consumers.

The WGC report shows that it’s not just investors who have benefited from higher gold prices. The report said that mine supply increased to 856 tonnes, up 1% from 2024.

“Total gold supply increased by 1% y/y to 1,206t in the first quarter. This was driven by record mine production of 856t – an all-time Q1 high in our data series, which dates back to 2000 – and despite a 1% y/y decline in recycling to 345t,” the analysts said.