Copper Climbs to Record as China Policy, US Imports Spur Rally

Commodity

Summary:

The rally has accelerated in recent weeks on concerns over an exodus of the metal to the US in anticipation that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs next year.

Copper rose to an all-time high after China set domestic growth as its top economic priority for next year, and amid stockpiling of the metal in the US.

The industrial metal climbed to $11,771 a ton, blazing past a record set in the previous session, before paring gains. The latest spike came after Beijing said on Monday it would stick with a “proactive” fiscal approach and maintain a “moderately loose” monetary stance for the world’s second-largest economy.

“The Politburo readouts present a more proactive macro environment than investors have expected,” said Xu Wanqiu, an analyst with Chinese brokerage Cofco Futures Co. “Copper will benefit from policy support toward power-grid upgrades, computing power. The momentum remains very bullish.” Copper Climbs to Record as China Policy, US Imports Spur Rally_1

Copper Climbs to Record as China Policy, US Imports Spur Rally_1

Trade data from China was also supportive, with exports rebounding last month to beat estimates and push the country’s trade surplus past $1 trillion for the first time.

Copper – a metal critical for electrification and the energy transition – has gained more than 30% on the London Metal Exchange this year. New demand fueled by data centers and electric vehicles has come up against tight global supply, with smelting capacity growing faster than mines can keep up. A series of mine outages has exacerbated a shortage of raw materials.

The rally has accelerated in recent weeks on concerns over an exodus of the metal to the US in anticipation that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs next year. This has squeezed inventories and sent premiums elsewhere to unprecedented highs, while also causing futures in New York to spike above those on the LME.

Global supply of refined copper could see a shortfall of 450,000 tons in 2026, partly due to this stockpiling in America, analysts from Chinese brokerage Citic Securities Co. said in a note. Prices must average above $12,000 a ton next year to attract the investment needed in new mining capacity to ensure sufficient supply in the medium- to long-term, the Citic analysts, led by Ao Chong, said.

Copper was up 0.1% to settle at $11,635.50 a ton on the LME. Other metals except zinc were lower.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Political

Economic

President Donald Trump’s administration will direct agencies to cut jobs, close offices and use artificial intelligence to make the government more efficient, according to a new directive.

Those priorities, outlined in a memo posted Monday by the Office of Management and Budget, indicate Trump’s plans to press forward on the work started by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

Many of the goals aren’t new. But by incorporating those objectives into the President’s Management Agenda — required under a 2010 law that seeks to make government more efficient — Trump is charging the budget office with measuring progress and holding agencies accountable.

Trump’s agenda is a departure from previous documents, tying management functions to ideological goals. Those include ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs, increasing recruitment of border and immigration agents and placing political appointees in charge of grant-making.

“Removing control of the levers of government from the bureaucracy will end the push for divisive and woke policies driving DEI, gender ideology, and the green new scam,” budget director Russell Vought and deputy director Eric Ueland wrote in the memo. The directive outlines new policies “focusing government effort to deliver an America rooted in patriotism, centered on the priorities of the American taxpayer and of unlimited opportunity, not government handouts.”

The memo calls on agencies to “offload unnecessary leases and buildings,” a priority early in the administration that stalled after a short-lived effort by the General Services Administration to put major department headquarters up for a possible sale.

Trump’s agenda also prioritizes earlier efforts to give political leaders more authority over career staff, instructing agencies to “remove poor performers” and “implement all employee performance and accountability Presidential directives.”

Procurement will be consolidated, data collection streamlined and processes automated in an effort to “build a government fit for the 21st century,” according to the document.

Source: Bloomberg

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Devin

Stocks

Dec 8 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes slipped on Monday, as Treasury yields gained and investors treaded cautiously ahead of what could be one of the most divisive Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions in years.

Delayed data last week showed that consumer spending increased moderately toward the end of the third quarter, giving investors greater confidence that the Fed will focus on lowering borrowing costs on Wednesday to shore up the labor market.

Inflation has so far proved sticky, making most policymakers cautious about lowering borrowing costs, although a few influential Fed policymakers have adopted a more dovish stance in recent weeks.

"Should four or more officials break ranks, it would mark the largest split since 1992," said a group of analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Traders are now pricing in an 89.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, up from as low as 30% in November, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.

They will also closely scrutinize Chair Jerome Powell's comments that day to gauge the central bank's future policy path.

Meanwhile, a hostile bid from Paramount Skydance (PSKY.O), opens new tab worth $108.4 billion for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O), opens new tab, in a last-ditch effort to outbid Netflix, sent shares of the iconic Hollywood studio company up 4.8%.

Paramount's shares (PSKY.O), opens new tab were up 7.6%, while Netflix's (NFLX.O), opens new tab fell 4.6%.

With cash-rich companies like Paramount and Netflix, a bidding war is possible, but in the end, whoever secures those assets should boost that company's shareholder value, as long as they do not overpay, said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer of 50 Park Investments.

At 11:47 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 165.88 points, or 0.35%, to 47,789.11, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab lost 22.31 points, or 0.32%, to 6,848.09 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab lost 42.24 points, or 0.18%, to 23,535.38.

Higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds also limited equities after a powerful earthquake struck Japan. Higher spending on restoration projects following a natural disaster is generally viewed as inflationary.

Most of the 11 S&P 500 sectors declined, led by a 1.5% drop in communication services (.SPLRCL), opens new tab.

Monday also saw Oppenheimer set a year-end 2026 target for the S&P 500, forecasting a Street high of 8,100 points, aided by strong earnings and macro resilience.

Later this week, the focus will shift to tech sector valuations, with earnings expected from Broadcom (AVGO.O), opens new tab and Oracle (ORCL.N), opens new tab, as investors worry over debt-funded artificial intelligence spending and complex corporate deals.

Broadcom (AVGO.O), opens new tab gained 2.8% after a report said Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab is in talks with the company about developing custom chips.

Chipmaker Marvell Technology (MRVL.O), opens new tab fell 10% after losing out on a spot on the S&P 500.

Confluent <CFLT.O, opens new tab> gained 29% after IBM <IBM.N, opens new tab> said it will acquire the data-infrastructure company for about $11 billion. Big Blue gained 1.5%.

Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab lost 3.5% following Morgan Stanley's bearish view on the electric-vehicle maker.

Used-car dealer Carvana <CVNA.N, opens new tab> jumped 11% after securing a spot in the S&P 500.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.72-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.13-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and eight new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 129 new highs and 50 new lows.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Economic

The U.S. Department of Labor announced the postponement of October's PPI data release, opting to include it in the upcoming November report..

This decision impacts market expectations for inflation trends and future interest rate policies.

Labor Department Combines October and November PPI Reports

Market analysts and economists have voiced concerns. The lack of transparency and the timing of such an announcement could create market uncertainties. Without clear monthly data, markets may see increased volatility, as traders speculate on the implications of the combined report.

Potential Market Volatility from Data Transparency Concerns

Did you know? In historical context, PPI reports have rarely been postponed or merged. This emphasizes the importance of consistent data release schedules for accurate economic forecasting.

Historically, the U.S. PPI data is released monthly, providing insights into wholesale inflation and economic health. Experts warn that altering this schedule may impact the reliability of economic indicators used by policymakers and businesses. Maintaining consistent data flows is crucial for accurate economic analysis.

Analysts suggest that the merger of data could lead to short-term market adjustments or recalibrations. Such decisions may affect currency valuations and investor sentiments, highlighting the significant role of transparent data dissemination in economic stability.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Devin

Central Bank

U.S. households became more pessimistic about their financial situations in November, even as their inflation expectations remained unchanged, according to a New York Federal Reserve report released on Monday.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that respondents' views on their current financial situations "deteriorated notably" while their outlook for the year ahead "deteriorated slightly."

Despite the financial pessimism, Americans' job market outlook improved in November. Expectations of higher unemployment a year from now decreased, while the anticipated probability of losing a job fell to its lowest level since December 2024. Households also reported a lower likelihood of voluntarily leaving their jobs.

The report comes just before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which begins Tuesday. The central bank is expected to cut its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday, as officials aim to support a labor market showing signs of weakness.

The anticipated rate reduction is likely to face significant opposition from some policymakers, as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. Many Fed officials continue to prioritize reducing price pressures.

On the inflation front, the survey showed stable expectations. The one-year inflation outlook held steady at 3.2% compared to October, while three-year and five-year projections remained unchanged at 3%.

Home price expectations stayed consistent at 3% growth, with modest changes in commodity price outlooks. However, the expected increase in medical costs jumped to 10.1% for the year ahead, reaching the highest level since January 2014.

The report also indicated that expectations for future earnings and income growth remained positive compared to October.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Economic

U.S. defense technology companies have roughly doubled their share of Pentagon contracts over the past year, but they face growing pains as they try to evolve from hot startups into heavyweights capable of building weapons at scale.

Valuations for unlisted firms developing everything from unmanned "wingman" fighter jets, drone boats and AI-driven autonomous software have surged this year, alongside a rise in small Pentagon contracts, as the success of drones in Russia's war on Ukraine has intensified interest in next-generation weapons.

For ‌instance, drone boat manufacturer Saronic Technologies, which is building a shipyard in Louisiana, was valued at $4 billion in February. Anduril Industries, the drone and autonomous weapons startup led by Palmer Luckey, doubled its valuation to $30 billion in June. And in a funding round last ‌month, radars and sensors company Chaos Industries doubled its valuation to $4.5 billion.

Now, the Silicon Valley-backed companies face a bigger challenge: moving beyond research and prototype contracts to producing weapons at scale and competing with established defense firms, according to interviews and speeches by more than a dozen industry executives at this weekend's Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.

"The defense tech space is booming, there are many people bringing commercial innovation to the defense area," said Christopher Calio, CEO of RTX, the defense giant behind the Patriot missile defense system and the engine that powers the F-35 fighter jet.

"I will say this, it's one thing to design and innovate. It's another thing to build ⁠a prototype, and then it's an entirely different ball game to then ‌scale manufacturing," Calio added.

SILICON VALLEY GETS LARGER SLICE OF PENTAGON PIE

Defense startups captured 1.3% of Pentagon contracts to defense firms in the first three quarters of this year, up from 0.6% a year earlier, according to data provided to Reuters by Govini, a Virginia-based defense analytics firm.

Meanwhile, the big defense "primes", which include Boeing, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop ‍Grumman, held steady at 92% of Pentagon contracts. European defense firms' share slipped to 6.6% from 7.4%.

"There will have to be more companies that have a shot at winning some of these larger contracts," Anduril Chairman Trae Stephens told Reuters. But, he added, "this is a hard, hard business. And the DOD (U.S. Department of Defense) is not going to create 10 new primes. There's not enough money to go around."

The annual Reagan forum was a collision of eras, where four-star generals and Washington defense CEOs in tailored suits mixed with baseball-cap-clad AI and drone company founders, debating how to scale new technologies for the battlefield against the backdrop of Simi Valley’s rolling hills.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ‌said the Pentagon would move away from a "prime" dominated culture to a system where nimbler commercial companies would speed up weapons production to help counter China's rapidly growing military.

"Our objective is simple, if monumental," Hegseth said in his keynote speech. "Transform the entire acquisition system to rapidly accelerate the fielding of capabilities and focus on results."

HARD TO CHANGE PENTAGON CULTURE

Defense executives said delivering on Hegseth's vision will be tough given entrenched political interests, a backlog of Pentagon mega-projects, a bureaucracy wedded to old ways and powerful defense giants with lobbying muscle.

Most defense tech firms are a long way off transitioning from a prototype contract, which might be worth $10 million to $30 million, into a major program with production targets like those the Pentagon has awarded to big defense firms for decades, said Zach Shore, chief revenue officer at Hermeus, an Atlanta-based company developing an uncrewed hypersonic military jet.

"That ⁠next layer of bureaucracy, that's the next wall that a lot of companies are going to come up on," Shore told Reuters.

This year, the Pentagon awarded large swathes of major programs - including Ukraine military aid packages, an Air Force fighter jet initiative, and the $175 billion Golden Dome missile project - to legacy defense contractors.

Despite these challenges, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who announced $10 billion of direct equity investments in defense, manufacturing and tech companies in October, fired a warning shot at any legacy defense contractors who might be resting on their laurels.

"There's a valley of death for big companies too, who ‍go by the wayside, usually driven by complacency, arrogance, bureaucracy," ⁠he said on a panel at the summit.

NEWCOMERS AND OLD GUARD FORGE PARTNERSHIPS

Heeding this call, many of the old guard of the defense industry expressed a willingness to embrace partnerships with next-generation defense companies.

"As the defense industrial base surges to support the growth, we need to leverage the established companies and the new entrants," L3Harris Technologies CEO Chris Kubasik told Reuters.

In September, Shield AI, a ⁠San Diego-based software and drone firm, announced a partnership to build autonomous vessels with HII, America's largest military shipbuilder. Last month, Anduril and South Korea's HD Hyundai Heavy Industries said they were teaming up to build ships for commercial and military use.

Zach Mears, Anduril’s ‌head of strategy, said the U.S. defense industry was approaching a tipping point after decades in which a small club of contractors dominated Pentagon deals.

"The light switch is in the ‌middle of being flipped," he said.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Commodity

Stocks

An experimental Chinese nuclear plant reportedly just crossed a historic threshold, successfully operating the world's first thorium-based molten salt reactor (TMSR). The Chinese Academy of Sciences' Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics has broken a major scientific barrier by successfully converting thorium to uranium in a historic first.

The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reports that the breakthrough, which took place at an experimental reactor out in the Gobi Desert, is "poised to reshape the future of clean sustainable nuclear energy."

The process works by using a "precise sequence of nuclear reactions" in which naturally occurring thorium-232 absorbs a neutron, becoming thorium-233. Through a decay process, that isotope breaks down into protactinium-233 and then finally into uranium-233, a potent form of nuclear fuel that can sustain chain reactions for nuclear fission.

While this breakthrough was just publicized this month by a report by Science and Technology Daily, the TMSR has apparently been operational for years. Li Qingnuan, Communist Party secretary and deputy director at the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, told the outlet that "since achieving first criticality on October 11, 2023, the thorium molten salt reactor has been steadily generating heat through nuclear fission".

If the reports are true, this breakthrough would signal an incredible leap forward in a nuclear technology race that China is already winning handily. Although the United States is still the world's biggest producer of nuclear energy, that status won't last much longer. In the same time period that the United States built the overdue and over-budget Plant Vogtle, China built 13 reactors of similar scale, and has 33 more on the way. Beijing is also making major forays into the nuclear sectors of emerging economies, with particularly concerted efforts in Africa.

"The Chinese are moving very, very fast," Mark Hibbs, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and expert on the Chinese nuclear sector, told the New York Times. "They are very keen to show the world that their program is unstoppable."

But while China has invested huge sums of money and manpower into becoming a global nuclear energy innovator and superpower, the nation lacks sufficient uranium to power its lofty goals. While nuclear power production growth is dominated by China, uranium supply chains are dominated by Russia, which is home to nearly half (approximately 44 percent) of all global uranium enrichment capacity.

China has been buying up more and more of Russia's uranium, but reliance on exports is both risky and antithetical to China's ethos of domestic energy independence and international energy dominance. Russia's outsized presence in the nuclear fuel supply chain has resulted in some degree of risk and market volatility, as the Kremlin has shown that it is not afraid to use enriched uranium for political leverage.

"The nuclear energy supply chain sits atop the clean technology risk pyramid," warned a recent article from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Beyond standard supply chain considerations, nuclear exports are subject to a suite of safety and security concerns, and overreliance on a single technology or fuel provider can create significant dependencies given the limited number of suppliers and distinct intellectual property (IP)."

By sidestepping the uranium supply chain issue by using thorium instead, China is leaping over a critical hurdle and straight over the finish line for global nuclear power sector domination. Thorium is much more accessible and abundant than uranium, and could theoretically solve all of China's nuclear fuel problems. According to the South China Morning Post, just one mining site in Inner Mongolia " is estimated to hold enough of the element to power China entirely for more than 1,000 years."