China’s Resale Housing Market Slumps Further in April Amid Supply Surge and Buyer Hesitancy

Economic

Summary:

China’s resale home prices across 100 major cities fell 0.7% in April from the previous month, according to a new report from the China Index Academy..

Deepening Slide in China’s Resale Housing Market Signals Continued Pressure

China’s beleaguered property sector saw another setback in April, with the average price of resale homes in 100 cities falling 0.7% month-on-month, according to the China Index Academy. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since the start of the year, as the market continues to struggle with oversupply, eroded confidence, and macroeconomic headwinds.

The April drop builds on a broader downtrend that began in February, following a brief period of relative stability. On a year-over-year basis, resale home prices were down 7.2%, underlining the protracted nature of China’s housing correction. By contrast, the average price of new builds across the same 100 cities rose by 2.5% from a year earlier, reflecting stronger state-backed developer activity and selective government support.

Policy-Driven Easing Fuels Listing Surge in Key Cities

A key driver of the price slump has been a notable surge in listings, especially in tier-one and tier-two cities, after local authorities lifted or eased resale restrictions to revive activity. The report noted that homeowners, many under financial strain or expecting future price declines, rushed to list properties, swelling inventories and tilting bargaining power further in favor of buyers.

“Price cuts to drive sales remained the market norm,” the China Index Academy said in its analysis, citing a competitive environment where sellers are forced to accept substantial markdowns to secure transactions. In some districts, resale listings outnumber buyer inquiries by more than 3 to 1.

Broader Economic and Social Implications

The decline in resale home prices is particularly significant in the Chinese context, where real estate comprises roughly 70% of household wealth and up to a quarter of GDP at its peak. A sustained erosion of property values risks dampening consumer spending, weakening local government revenues tied to land sales, and undermining broader financial stability.

Complicating the situation is the external environment: the United States’ sweeping tariff regime under President Donald Trump has sharply raised global trade uncertainties, curbing exports and business sentiment in China. Analysts warn that without a meaningful rebound in domestic demand—including a recovery in the housing market—Beijing’s broader economic goals could be imperiled.

Potential Policy Response and Cautious Optimism

While Beijing has already introduced several measures to support the housing market—ranging from subsidized mortgages to tax incentives for homebuyers—results have been uneven. Analysts expect further stimulus in the coming months, especially if new economic data confirms softening consumption and investment.

There are also signs that China may turn to its vast infrastructure pipeline and state-owned financial institutions to stabilize demand in both the real estate and manufacturing sectors. However, confidence remains fragile.

According to Emma Li, a real estate analyst at Vortexa, “There’s still demand for quality housing in urban cores, but people are cautious. They’re watching how the economy evolves, how employment holds up, and whether home prices have truly bottomed out.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

BOJ Stays the Course but Downgrades Growth Forecasts Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The Bank of Japan opted to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% during its May policy meeting, citing the disruptive effects of U.S. tariffs on global trade and Japan’s economic outlook. Although the central bank remains cautiously optimistic about achieving its inflation target of 2%, it has delayed its forecast timeline by a full year, pushing expected target attainment to the latter half of fiscal 2026.

The BOJ slashed Japan’s projected GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to just 0.5%, down from its previous forecast of 1.1%. Growth for the following year was also revised downward to 0.7% from 1.0%. These revisions come as Japanese exporters and manufacturers face headwinds from weakened global demand, rising import costs, and policy instability triggered by President Trump’s tariff regime.

Tariff Turbulence Weakens Outlook

The central bank explicitly cited the negative impact of trade policy shifts—particularly from the U.S.—on corporate profitability and global growth. While underlying inflation is forecast to gradually climb due to Japan’s tightening labor market, the BOJ emphasized that external factors like tariffs and financial volatility could derail investment and wage momentum.

In its quarterly report, the BOJ warned that “Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate” due to "trade and other policies in each jurisdiction." Yet it remains hopeful that moderate global growth will resume, allowing Japan’s economy to regain momentum after a temporary dip.

BOJ Balancing Rate Hikes with Global Risk

Despite weaker growth projections, the BOJ maintained that it is still prepared to continue rate hikes if its inflation outlook materializes. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board have made clear they will exercise flexibility, citing "extremely high uncertainties" surrounding international trade.

According to updated forecasts, core inflation is expected to hit 2.2% in fiscal 2025, dip to 1.7% in 2026, and then rise again to 1.9% by 2027—figures that largely justify the BOJ’s cautious tightening stance.

Market reaction to the BOJ's announcement was muted. Government bond yields dipped slightly, while the Nikkei stock average showed minimal movement. Economists believe that although the BOJ retains a tightening bias, rate hikes could be spaced out or paused if the global economic backdrop deteriorates further.

Investor Focus on Ueda’s Remarks

Investors are closely watching Governor Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for insights into how escalating tariffs under the Trump administration will shape the BOJ’s monetary path. With U.S. import duties disrupting trade routes and dampening sentiment, the central bank faces a difficult balancing act between its inflation goals and preserving domestic economic stability.

Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research, summarized the dilemma: “The BOJ appears to be maintaining a rate-hike stance. Given high uncertainty, however, it probably wants to leave itself a free hand on the timing.”

Source: Reuters

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China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

Walmart Shields Supply Chain from Tariff Shock as U.S.-China Trade War Intensifies

Walmart, the largest retailer in the United States, is refusing to let rising tariffs disrupt its business with China. Amid the harshest U.S. trade actions in decades, Walmart has quietly told suppliers in key Chinese manufacturing hubs such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang to continue shipments as planned—and assured them that the company will absorb the newly imposed tariffs.

Multiple exporters, including major stationery suppliers and packaging manufacturers, have confirmed that Walmart contacted them in late April with instructions to resume standard delivery volumes. According to Business Standard, these suppliers were explicitly informed they would not be responsible for any added tariff costs stemming from Trump’s 145% import tax regime.

A Tactical Shift in Strategy

This marks a notable departure from March, when Walmart reportedly pressured suppliers to lower prices to offset tariffs—an effort that failed. By April, many U.S. importers had pulled back on orders, slashing Chinese shipments by over 40% year-on-year. However, as of April 23, major American retailers began issuing notices to resume regular order flows, anticipating eventual stabilization or policy revision.

Exporters have since adjusted pricing and delivery terms—shifting from DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) to FOB (Free On Board)—allowing U.S. importers to handle the volatile and evolving tariff requirements themselves, often through local customs brokers with real-time regulatory insights.

Corporate Pressure Meets Political Calculus

Walmart’s continued reliance on Chinese suppliers—and its willingness to shoulder steep import duties—reflects not just logistical resilience but growing pressure from corporate America on the Trump administration. Experts suggest this is part of a broader strategy among multinational firms to quietly lobby against tariffs that disrupt global supply chains.

Xu Weijun, a public policy analyst at South China University of Technology, noted, “This move underscores the rising influence of American corporations in shaping trade policy, especially as Trump's strategy starts to backfire economically.”

Signals of Softening Rhetoric

Although Trump has maintained a hardline posture, he hinted at flexibility in recent remarks, stating that the 145% tariff rate could be “significantly reduced.” He also claimed to have spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, although Beijing has denied that any such call took place.

Nonetheless, analysts believe that quiet diplomatic backchannels remain open. The possibility of a temporary tariff suspension or phased reduction is now seen as plausible, especially with major U.S. firms—like Walmart—asserting influence.

Cautious Optimism, Strategic Preparedness

While this signals a potential thaw in trade tensions, Chinese exporters are urged to remain vigilant. “Even if negotiations resume, the return to pre-tariff conditions will be neither quick nor straightforward,” Xu warned. “Suppliers should brace for more turbulence and adopt flexible risk-mitigation strategies.”

As the world's two largest economies stand at a trade policy crossroads, Walmart’s move may be a harbinger of larger shifts—commercial pressure that could push both sides toward compromise, even as geopolitical rivalry persists.

Source: Business Standard

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Economic

A Trade Milestone in the Making: Trump Signals Breakthrough with India Amid Tariff Turmoil

In a significant turn of events amid mounting global trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that negotiations for a new trade agreement with an unnamed Asian partner were complete—pending final approval from the partner’s head of government. While the White House has not officially confirmed the partner country, all signs point toward India as the likely counterpart.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House on April 29, Trump stated: “I think we’ll have a deal with India. Prime Minister Modi was here three weeks ago—they want a deal.” That statement came shortly after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed “substantial progress” during recent talks between Vice President JD Vance and Modi in India.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added fuel to the speculation in a CNBC interview: “I have a deal done. We’re just waiting for their Prime Minister and Parliament to approve it.”

India Leads the Queue of Asian Candidates

Although Lutnick avoided naming the country, analysts believe India has moved into pole position, ahead of Japan and South Korea—both also in active negotiations with the U.S. The logic is clear: India has signaled openness to lowering tariffs to attract foreign investment, which aligns with Trump’s reciprocal tariff strategy and supply chain re-shoring ambitions.

Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan noted the strategic upside for India: “If India lowers tariffs significantly, it could unlock immense economic potential and reshape investor sentiment, especially as the country boasts a massive consumer base.”

Wall Street Reacts Positively — With Caution

The stock market reacted immediately. Wall Street indices surged following Lutnick’s remarks, signaling investor optimism for de-escalation in at least one front of Trump’s multi-pronged tariff war. Yet analysts warned that trade policy remains highly fluid and unpredictable, with corporate and consumer confidence having already taken a hit since the administration began its global tariff spree in early April.

While the finalized agreement awaits Modi’s signature and parliamentary ratification, U.S. officials emphasized that nothing is official until announced by Trump himself. “Nothing is complete until the President says so,” Secretary Bessent reiterated on Fox Business.

India’s willingness to reach a deal stems in part from its desire to differentiate itself from China, which remains under the heaviest U.S. tariff burden—over 100% on most goods. Trump has excluded Beijing from ongoing negotiations and instead delegated those talks solely to the Treasury Department.

If confirmed, the agreement with India would mark Trump’s first concrete achievement in a rapidly shifting global trade landscape, and could set the tone for upcoming negotiations with U.S. allies seeking exemptions from sweeping tariffs.

Source: CNBC

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Catherine Richards

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin has rebounded toward $95,000 after a brief decline triggered by recent US GDP data, reflecting market resilience.

The swift recovery of Bitcoin post-US GDP decline highlights traders' optimism, expecting potential Federal Reserve rate cuts to possibly benefit the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin Climbs Back to $95,000 After GDP-Triggered Dip

Bitcoin initially dropped to $92,910 following disappointing US GDP data. This quick rebound underscores Bitcoin's resilience as it heads back toward $95,000. The data released on April 30 showed economic contraction.

The decline sparked a sell-off not only in crypto but also in traditional markets. Bitcoin later recovered, mirroring indices such as the DOW and S&P 500.

Investor Optimism Despite Initial Market Volatility

The recovery in Bitcoin price demonstrates strong buying interest and confidence among investors. Despite the initial dip, market sentiment remains optimistic, anticipating favorable conditions for growth in the crypto space.

Upon exceeding $96,000, Bitcoin could potentially climb further towards $113,000. This optimism stems from historical responses to rate cuts, which previously coincided with strong bull markets in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's current behavior resembles its mid-2021 recovery, where rapid rebounds were noted. Historically, Bitcoin has often been considered a hedge against economic instability and fiat currency devaluation.

Bitcoin rebounds from bearish US GDP data as dip buyers push BTC price back toward $95K

Experts from Kanalcoin emphasize historical patterns indicating Bitcoin could be positively influenced by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This pattern reinforces the bullish outlook seen in similar past economic scenarios.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Economic

A Fragile Quarter: Trump Deflects Blame as U.S. Economy Contracts Amid Tariff Anxiety

In a dramatic turn from the final quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Commerce Department’s latest GDP report. The figure marked the country’s sharpest economic pullback in over two years and fell well short of economist forecasts, who had anticipated modest growth at 0.8%. The contraction has raised alarms over the economic toll of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and the volatile trade environment they’ve created.

The primary culprit behind the GDP drop was a record surge in imports, which soared 41.3% in Q1 after contracting 1.9% in Q4 2024. The spike was attributed to businesses and consumers front-loading purchases to avoid incoming tariff hikes—especially those targeting Chinese goods. Meanwhile, exports grew only marginally at 1.8%, deepening the trade imbalance and dragging down net GDP. Government spending also fell, compounding the weakness.

Yet, amid the gloomy headlines, some underlying components of the economy remained intact. Business investment rebounded strongly, growing at a robust 9.8% after falling 3% the previous quarter. Consumer spending, though slowing, still contributed positively.

Trump: “Boom is Coming” — But Not Yet

President Trump responded by downplaying the role of his own policies, instead attributing the downturn to residual effects from the Biden administration. In a post on social media, Trump stated, “The negative impacts have nothing to do with tariffs—it’s Biden’s numbers we inherited. But when the boom starts, it will be unlike anything you’ve seen.”

He continued to promise a forthcoming period of “explosive growth,” despite mounting skepticism among economists and voters alike. A recent CNN poll found that 59% of respondents believe Trump’s policies are worsening the economy, and many express growing doubt about the effectiveness of his tariff-centric trade strategy.

Not Recession Yet, But Risks Are Rising

Technically, the U.S. is not yet in recession, which is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The labor market remains relatively strong with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%, and some business sectors are still expanding. However, signs of strain are accumulating.

Private sector hiring slowed sharply in April, with ADP reporting only 62,000 new jobs, down from 147,000 in March. “It’s difficult to make hiring decisions in this uncertain environment,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP.

Analysts like Gregory Daco of EY note that while the Q1 contraction doesn’t yet confirm a recession, it signals the economy is “on the edge.” Continued escalation in tariffs could tip the balance quickly.

Economy in Limbo as Trade War Looms Larger

While Trump insists a historic recovery is on the horizon, the latest GDP figures and hiring data reveal a nation caught between fragile resilience and policy-driven risk. With consumer sentiment deteriorating, imports flooding in, and trade tensions mounting, the promise of a coming boom is met with caution. Unless global trade conditions stabilize and tariffs are reevaluated, the second quarter may bring a clearer answer to whether the U.S. economy is headed toward a full-blown recession.

Source: CNN

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China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

Deepening Cracks: How U.S. Tariffs Are Undermining China’s Economic Stability

China’s economy has begun to show significant signs of strain as the country absorbs the full brunt of sweeping U.S. tariffs, with key indicators of manufacturing health plunging sharply in April. As geopolitical and trade tensions continue to escalate, Beijing faces mounting pressure to intervene with new stimulus measures.

Manufacturing Struggles Under Tariff Burden

According to the latest data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on April 30, the country's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49 — below the critical 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction — marking the lowest reading in over a year. More alarmingly, new export orders dropped to 44.7, the weakest level since December 2022 and one of the lowest since 2012 when excluding the pandemic years.

The data reflects the direct impact of President Trump’s unprecedented 145% tariff wall on Chinese imports, which has caused widespread disruption across China’s export-reliant manufacturing sector. Following an initial surge in orders earlier this year — as buyers front-loaded shipments to beat tariff deadlines — American firms have begun canceling or postponing further orders, triggering a ripple effect across China’s factories.

Widespread Economic Fallout and Political Firmness

Exports remain a vital growth pillar for China, contributing around one-third of GDP in 2024. According to Goldman Sachs, an estimated 10 to 20 million manufacturing jobs in China are directly tied to the U.S. market. The collapse in export orders thus places substantial pressure on employment and industrial stability.

Despite these headwinds, China has doubled down on its firm political stance. In a recent social media post, Beijing vowed to “never bow to Washington” and warned against global acquiescence to U.S. pressure. In retaliation, China imposed over 100% tariffs on select U.S. goods and tightened restrictions on critical resource exports such as rare earth minerals and lithium — essential for high-tech manufacturing and battery production.

Limited Diplomatic Progress, Fragmented Global Supply Chains

Trump’s tariff initiative, aimed at reshoring American manufacturing and reducing trade deficits, has yet to yield tangible gains but has instead triggered a broader realignment of global trade. Although the White House has paused tariffs for 90 days with certain allied nations, China has notably been excluded from any exemptions.

This lack of dialogue — combined with additional U.S. pressure on third countries to reduce trade with China in exchange for U.S. market access — has left room for only limited relief. Some high-tech products such as semiconductors, smartphones, and aerospace components have seen temporary tariff suspensions, but a comprehensive trade deal remains unlikely.

Broader Asia and Global Economy Also Hit

The impact of the U.S.–China tariff conflict is not limited to Beijing. According to the IMF, prolonged trade tensions could drag global GDP growth below expectations. April export figures from both South Korea and Japan also show contraction, and shipping data indicates declining container volumes between China and the United States.

Against this backdrop, economic forecasting firms like Capital Economics have revised down China’s 2025 GDP growth outlook to just 3.5%, significantly below Beijing’s official 5% target. The firm warns that even if survey data exaggerates short-term pessimism, the underlying trend reflects mounting structural and external stress.

China now finds itself at an inflection point — with manufacturing output sagging, global trade links fraying, and few signs of a diplomatic breakthrough with the United States. If the country fails to launch impactful stimulus or find alternative export markets, the slowdown may deepen. The world’s second-largest economy is resilient, but as April’s data shows, even China isn’t immune to a global trade war it can’t control.