3 key looming Trump decisions will shape the future of the economy

Economic

Summary:

Ahead of the August 1 deadline, Trump must decide on raising a universal import tariff to 15%, imposing drug tariffs up to 200%, and whether to delay or enforce sweeping global tariffs. These choices could significantly impact consumer costs, markets, and global trade stability.

“It’s ultimately up to the president to decide.”

That’s more or less the go-to line for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and a host of other top Trump aides and White House officials when they share the administration’s plans for tariffs and trade negotiations.

With the August 1 deadline for higher tariffs rapidly approaching, President Donald Trump has a week to make a number of critical decisions about trade that could shape the future of the US and global economies.

Key decision 1: Universal tariff

Trump in early April paused most of his so-called reciprocal tariffs. They’re set to resume next Friday.

But one of the few tariffs that Trump put in place on April 2 that has since stuck is the 10% universal tariff on virtually all goods coming into the United States. In recent weeks, Trump has suggested that he could raise that minimum tariff — perhaps even doubling it.

“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now,” Trump told NBC News on July 10. He has since floated 15% as a new floor for tariffs a number of times, including Wednesday evening during an AI summit.

Trump has sent letters to the leaders of more than a dozen countries over the course of the past few weeks, setting new tariff rates that are scheduled to go into effect August 1. But Trump has a crucial decision to make about every other country: What tariff will they pay?

Most market observers expect the new universal tariff to be set at 15%, because recent trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam were all at or above that level. The Financial Times on Wednesday reported that the European Union is nearing a trade agreement with the United States that sets tariffs on EU goods exported to the United States at 15%.

“After seeing the 15% tariff levied on all Japanese imported goods, let’s assume that the new baseline tariff rate will be that, instead of 10%, on all imported goods,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, in a note to investors Wednesday morning.

Trump’s tariffs that are currently in effect have raised the effective US tariff rate — the average tax that US importers pay on foreign goods — from around 2% to 18%, the highest since 1934, economists at Yale’s Budget Lab said in a recent report. That works out to $2,400 a year in added costs for the average American household.

A higher universal tariff, if that’s what Trump ultimately decides to implement, would add to that cost.

With $3.3 trillion of annual imported goods, subtracting the $400 billion of tariff-exempted items from Canada and Mexico, that means roughly $2.9 trillion of goods each year will be taxed at 15% — $435 billion of taxes paid by US consumers and businesses, Boockvar noted.

That’s a lot of money: For comparison, that’s only $90 billion less than what all corporations pay in US income taxes each year.

Key decision 2: Drug tariffs

Trump has repeatedly suggested that he would put major tariffs on pharmaceuticals that are manufactured outside the United States — the vast majority of US drugs — starting August 1.

A crucial decision for Trump: What will that tariff be, how will it be rolled out, and which drugs will be covered under the new tax?

Trump on July 8 said he would place 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals “very soon,” but he noted they may not take full effect for some time to allow drugmakers time to make plans to move to the US. Trump has paused industry-based tariffs before, including autos and auto parts, after company leaders complained that the immediate tariffs gave them insufficient time to shift production to the United States — a costly process that can take years.

It’s not clear what Trump’s timeframe or plans may be. Trump has floated drug tariffs for months, but has yet to provide any concrete plans.

Patient advocates and drug supply chain experts warn that tariffs would probably lead to higher drug prices and exacerbate drug shortages.

The Trump administration launched an investigation into pharmaceutical imports in mid-April, setting the stage to impose tariffs on national security grounds. The White House and some proponents have argued that the United States needs more domestic drug manufacturing so it does not have to rely on other countries for its supply of medicines.

But any increase in US domestic drug production would probably take years to implement.

Although some drugmakers — most recently AstraZeneca — have announced expansions of their US-based manufacturing initiatives, some were in the works prior to Trump taking office in January, and those factories would not be able to entirely supplant foreign exports to the United States.

Key decision 3: Go/no-go

A last crucial decision: Trump needs to decide whether he will ultimately allow the massive new tariffs on countries around the world to go into effect — or to delay them again.

After April 2, when Trump put the reciprocal tariffs in place, markets tumbled. By April 9, markets had flirted multiple times with bear market territory, tumbling nearly 20% from the record high they had hit just several weeks earlier. The bond market had also begun to show signs that it might break — until Bessent guided Trump away from his harshest tariff levels.

But since then, Trump has recorded several trade agreements with foreign countries — most importantly, China and Japan — giving investors a significant sense of relief and certainty. Wall Street also believes that, if necessary, it can put significant pressure on Trump to refrain from his most aggressive trade policies — a theory that has generated the moniker “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

With the stock market once again trading at record highs and bond yields stable, Trump may have less incentive to “chicken out” this time around.

However, the better-than-expected agreement with Japan announced Tuesday suggests the White House may be reluctant to push important trading partners too hard, recognizing that the economic pain from high tariffs and potential tit-for-tat retaliation could prove unacceptable to businesses, investors and the public, noted Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities for UBS Global Wealth Management.

So, some of Trump’s most aggressive threats, including a 50% tariff on Brazil as punishment for charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro for alleged attempted election fraud, may ultimately be reduced or paused.

Source:CNN

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

President Donald Trump said on Friday he had a good meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and got the impression Powell might be ready to lower interest rates.

"We had a very good meeting ... I think we had a very good meeting on interest rates," Trump told reporters.Trump clashed with Powell during a rare presidential visit to the U.S. central bank on Thursday, and criticized the cost of renovating two historic buildings at its headquarters.Trump, who called Powell a "numbskull" earlier this week for failing to heed the White House's demand for a large reduction in borrowing costs, said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he would.

Source: Kitco

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Michelle

Commodity

An Opec+ panel is unlikely to alter existing plans to raise oil output when it meets on Monday, four Opec+ delegates said, noting the producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels.

The meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which includes top ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is scheduled for 1200 GMT on Monday.

Four Opec+ sources told Reuters the meeting is unlikely to alter the group's existing policy, which calls for eight members to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Another source said it was too early to say.

Opec and the Saudi government communications office did not respond to a request for comment.

Opec+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it reversed course this year to regain market share, and as US President Donald Trump demanded Opec pump more to help keep a lid on gasoline prices.

The eight Opec+ producers hold a separate meeting on August 3 and remain likely to agree to a further 548,000 bpd increase for September, three of the sources said, as reported by Reuters earlier this month.

This would mean that, by September, Opec+ will have unwound their most recent production cut of 2.2 million bpd, and the United Arab Emirates will have delivered a 300,000 bpd quota increase ahead of schedule.

The JMMC meets every two months and can recommend changes to Opec+ output policy.

Oil prices have remained supported despite the Opec+ increases thanks to summer demand and the fact that some members have not raised production as much as the headline quota hikes have called for. Brent crude was trading close to US$70 a barrel on Friday.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Economic

European equities rounded off the week mostly lower at midday on Friday, amid "fragile" UK consumer confidence and as investors look to next week's US tariff deadline.

The FTSE 100 index was down 31.92 points, 0.4%, at 9,106.45. The FTSE 250 was down 101.85 points, 0.5%, at 22,053.56, and the AIM All-Share was down 1.26 points, 0.2%, at 775.61.

The Cboe UK 100 was down 0.3% at 909.15, the Cboe UK 250 was down 0.5% at 19,366.93, and the Cboe Small Companies was up 0.2% at 17,686.31.

In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.1%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt faded 0.6%.

"The FTSE 100 lost some ground as investors took stock after another breathless week for the markets," said AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould.

"There was positive economic news from the UK as retail sales bounced back in June helped by warm weather – although beyond the headline there were several signs that consumer confidence remains fragile.

"The next big focus for the market is whether a deal can be struck between the EU and Trump administration on trade – which would remove one of the biggest remaining uncertainties ahead of next week's tariff deadline."

Stocks in New York were called broadly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was called 0.1% higher, the S&P 500 index also up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slightly lower.

The EU believes a trade deal with the US is "within reach", a European Commission spokesman said Thursday, after diplomats said the two sides appeared closer to an agreement.

"As regards a deal as an outcome, we believe such an outcome is within reach," EU trade spokesman Olof Gill said.

Diplomats this week said a US proposal with a baseline tariff rate of 15% was on the table – with carve-outs for sectors including pharmaceutical products and aircraft – but that it remained under discussion.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.42%, widening from 4.40%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was quoted at 4.97%, stretching from 4.94%.

Brown Brothers Harriman analysts commented: "Remember, markets may soon have to contend with a "shadow" Fed chair, if President Trump signals his pick months ahead of Powell's May 2026 term end. All three leading candidates (Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller) to succeed Powell have argued for lower interest rates right now. Conflicting signals between the official Chair and a perceived "shadow" figure will increase market confusion, lead to mixed policy expectations, and erode the Fed's image as a non-partisan institution."

The pound was quoted at USD1.3460 at midday on Friday in London, down from USD1.3571 at the equities close on Thursday. The euro stood slightly lower at USD1.1734, against USD1.1737. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at JPY147.80 compared to JPY146.33.

Pri0r1ty Intelligence was up 19% around midday.

The London-based software-as-a-service provider focused on AI launched a lightning network routing node for bitcoin transactions, following the rollout of Pr1bit last month.

The additional paid offering, Pr1bit, uses both artificial intelligence and Coinbase Commerce infrastructure to enable businesses to accept bitcoin payments instantly and almost cost-free. Pri0r1ty customers will be able to use its lightning network to send and receive bitcoin at a "significantly lower cost" than the bitcoin main network or other online payment methods.

Pri0r1ty will earn a routing fee for processing transactions in bitcoin satoshis, which is the smallest monetary denomination of bitcoin. The first node is already active, with more than 100 payments processed to date on behalf of small to medium-sized enterprises. The company will also launch several Ethereum validator nodes and provide a staking pool.

Jupiter Fund Management was among the FTSE 250's biggest losers, down 4.9%.

The London-based active, "high conviction" asset manager reported a small rise in assets under management in the first half of 2025, though net flows remained slightly negative and profit declined. The company cut its interim dividend by more than a third.

AuM was GBP47.1 billion on June 30, up from GBP45.3 billion on December 31, though still down from GBP51.3 billion a year before. Net flows during the half year were negative GBP200 million, improved from negative GBP3.4 billion a year before.

Pretax profit for the half-year was GBP27.5 million, down from GBP38.7 million a year before, as net revenue declined to GBP153.9 million from GBP173.7 million.

Jupiter cut its interim dividend by 34% to 2.1 pence per share from 3.2p. It said this was in line with its capital allocation policy of return returning 50% of pre-performance fee EPS.

"Jupiter has delivered a strong start to 2025, with growing momentum in the first half of the year," CEO Beesley said. "Direct management actions over previous periods are driving meaningful changes, and we are beginning to see the tangible benefits come through in our results."

Lifesafe Holdings sank 19%.

The Essex, England-based fire safety technology developer said revenue for the six months to June 30 is around GBP900,000, down 44% from GBP1.6 million the year before. The firm estimated its loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to have widened to around GBP700,000 from GBP400,000.

This was the result of Lifesafe's changing its sales model to a business-to-business-to-consumer model from a pure business-to-consumer model, and its consequently revised wholesale prices. In addition, unauthorised reseller competition on Amazon hurt order rates, though the company noted this has now been resolved, and GBP100,000 in orders have been delayed to the next financial period due to delivery issues within the supply chain.

Brent oil was quoted higher at USD69.31 a barrel at midday in London on Friday from USD68.24 late Thursday. Gold was quoted lower at USD3,342.57 an ounce against USD3,412.38.

Still to come on Friday's economic calendar, US durable goods orders figures.

Source: Alliance News

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Wall Street was on track to open with gains on Friday, adding to record highs ahead of next week’s busy slate of earnings, job market reports, a Federal Reserve policy meeting and the tariff deadline.

Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both were up 0.1% before the bell. Nasdaq futures were flat.

The S&P and Nasdaq both closed at record highs on Thursday and markets are currently on track to finish the week with gains for the fourth time in the past five weeks.

Intel shares tumbled more than 7% overnight after the chipmaker announced plans to reduce its “core” workforce by nearly one-quarter and cut other expenses in a bid to revive the fortunes of the struggling chipmaker. Intel, which helped launch Silicon Valley as the U.S. technology hub, has fallen behind rivals like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices while demand for artificial intelligence chips soars.

Deckers Brands was up more than 13% overnight after the shoe company easily beat Wall Street’s sales and profit targets. Deckers said first-quarter sales rose 17% from the same quarter last year, to $965 million, on the strength of its Ugg and Hoka brands.

Boston Beer Co., the maker of Samuel Adams beer and Truly hard seltzer, climbed 7.8% after its second-quarter profit came in well ahead of analysts’ forecasts. Boston Beer saw its net income rise more than 15% over last year, boosting its earnings per share in the period to $5.45. Analysts were expecting profit of $3.86 per share.

Stocks have broadly been rallying for weeks on hopes that President Donald Trump will reach trade deals with other countries that will lower his stiff proposed tariffs, along with the risk that they could cause a recession and drive up inflation. The deadline for those negotiations comes next Friday, Aug. 1.

Next week brings the peak of earnings season, with more than 100 companies in the benchmark S&P 500 reporting their latest results.

The Fed, under pressure from President Trump to lower its benchmark borrowing rate, will announce its latest decision on interest rates Wednesday. Despite pressure coming from the White House, most analysts think the Fed will stand pat, leaving its benchmark rate alone for the fifth straight time.

The economic data calendar is also full, with three separate reports on the labor market, including the always closely-watched monthly jobs report.

Elsewhere, in Europe at midday, Germany’s DAX shed 0.8%, while Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.4%. In Paris, the CAC 40 slipped 0.1%.

In Asian trading, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 41,456.23 after two days of gains following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal that would place a 15% tax on imports from Japan. That’s lower than the 25% rate that Trump had earlier said would kick in on Aug. 1.

Data released on Friday showed the inflation rate in Japan’s capital Tokyo rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, down from 3.1% in June. Japanese government efforts to moderate inflation are working, though underlying Tokyo price pressures remain elevated, ING Economics said in a commentary. It expects the Bank of Japan to hold interest rates steady at its July 30-31 meeting, but said the central bank would likely raise its forecast for inflation.

In Chinese markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.1% to 25,388.35 and the Shanghai Composite index slid 0.3% to 3,593.66.

Next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm, Sweden, to work toward a trade deal with Beijing ahead of an Aug. 12 deadline. Trump has said a China trip “is not too distant” as trade tensions ease.

“One big question for markets is whether the tariff ceasefire is extended. We expect that an agreement will be attainable, but, in the interim, markets will watch closely to see if there are adjustments to current tariff rates in either direction,” ING Economics said.

In South Korea, the Kospi picked up 0.2% to 3,196.05, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,666.90.

Taiwan’s Taiex edged less than 0.1% lower, and in India, the Sensex fell 0.9%.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 added 0.1% to its all-time high set the day before, closing at 6,363.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% to 44,693.91, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.2% to a record 21,057.96.

In energy trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil added 27 cents to $66.30 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, also rose 27 cents to $68.63 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar rose to 147.65 Japanese yen from 147.00 yen. The euro fell to $1.1723 from $1.1750.

Source: AP

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Adam

Economic

Ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, relations between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have hit a low.

“Families are being hurt because Interest Rates are too high,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Wednesday.

Trump has said he wants the Fed to sharply lower interest rates by as much as 3 percentage points to spur economic growth. (Although the central bank typically adjusts its benchmark in 25-basis-point increments, rates were slashed to near zero as recently as the Covid pandemic. “The Fed only resorts to such extreme measures in response to severe economic distress,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.)

The president has argued that maintaining a federal funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates.

The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

Powell said earlier this month that the Fed likely would have cut rates by now, but that it has held off due to the uncertainty and inflation risks posed by Trump’s tariff agenda. Many economists say that the full impact from tariffs on pricing has only just started to be felt, and inflation could pick up in the second half of the year.

Since December, the federal funds rate has remained steady in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut when the Fed meets next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. Market pricing indicates the Fed is much more likely to consider a rate cut in September.

Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well.

However, “there is no guarantee this would translate into lower rates,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School — “largely because many types of borrowing, mortgage rates specifically, are not benchmarked off the Fed.”

From mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here’s a look at how the Fed affects your finances.

Mortgages

Trump said in a July 23 social media post that “Housing in our Country is lagging because Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell refuses to lower Interest Rates.”

But fixed mortgage rates, specifically, don’t directly track the Fed: They are largely tied to Treasury yields and the U.S. economy. As concerns over tariffs and the broader economy drive Treasury yields higher, mortgage rates also remain stubbornly high.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is currently near 6.8%, according to Bankrate. The nationwide problem of limited inventory and housing affordability is a key issue, regardless of the Fed’s next move.

The housing market “continues to struggle under high home prices as well as high mortgage rates,” Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, said in a statement. The median price of a home sold hit a record high in June, according to recent data.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a more direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

Yet, regardless of the central bank’s next move, credit card rates are high and likely to stay there. The average annual percentage rate is currently just over 20%, according to Bankrate, not far from last year’s all-time record.

“Credit card rates have been in a holding pattern at a very elevated level,” McBride said.

Even if APRs were 3 percentage points lower, that would not significantly ease the burden of a revolving balance, most experts say.

Auto loans

Auto loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan. Payments keep getting bigger because car prices are rising, in addition to pressure from Trump’s plan to impose higher tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and car parts.

Currently, the average rate on a five-year new car loan is 7.22%, according to Bankrate.

“Consumers are continuously stretching to afford new vehicles in this market,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. Now, the share of new-car buyers with a car payment of more than $1,000 a month is at all-time high.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are set once a year, based in part on the last 10-year Treasury note auction in May. They are fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic uncertainty.

As of July 1, the interest rates on undergraduate federal student loans are 6.39%.

Although borrowers with existing federal student debt balances won’t see their rates change, many are now facing other headwinds with fewer federal loan forgiveness options and a popular repayment plan currently on hold.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts still offer above-average returns and currently pay more than 4%, according to Bankrate.

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged has kept savings rates above the rate of inflation, which is considered a rare win.

“It’s not a good time to be a borrower, but it’s a great time to be a saver — lean into that,” said Bankrate’s McBride.

Source: cnbc

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks were still in the red by midday on Friday as investors mulled a dip in UK consumer confidence and a smaller-than-expected rebound in retail sales.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.4% at 9,106.46.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales bounced back in June, albeit less than expected, boosted by warmer weather.

Retail sales rose 0.9% on the month following a 2.8% drop in May, which was revised down from a 2.7% decline. The increase was below economists’ expectations for 1.2% growth, however.

Food stores sales volumes rose 0.7% in June following a 5.4% fall the month before. This was mainly thanks to improved supermarket sales, with some retailers mentioning that warm weather had lifted drinks sales.

Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, said: "Following a poor May, it was an improved month for retail sales with growth across all main sectors. The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases."

Elsewhere, the latest GfK survey showed that consumer confidence dipped in July, with the long-running consumer confidence index one point lower at -19.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said the data suggests that some people may be "sensing stormy conditions ahead".

"With speculation growing over possible tax rises in the Autumn Budget, and price pressure contributing not just to higher inflation already but also to the likelihood of worse inflation to come, the news is worrying," he said.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "There was positive economic news from the UK as retail sales bounced back in June helped by warm weather - although beyond the headline there were several signs that consumer confidence remains fragile.

"The next big focus for the market is whether a deal can be struck between the EU and Trump administration on trade - which would remove one of the biggest remaining uncertainties ahead of next week’s tariff deadline."

In equity markets, NatWest was the standout gainer on the FTSE 100 as it lifted its guidance for the year and announced a £750m share buyback. In the six months to 30 June, operating pre-tax profit rose 18% to £3.6bn, beating the £3.46bn average forecast by analysts.

The bank, reporting first results since its return to private ownership, lifted its dividend by 58% to 9.5p a share.

It now expects to achieve a return on tangible equity of 16.5%, from previous guidance of up to 16%. It also forecast annual income to be above £16bn, up from earlier guidance of £15.2bn - £15.7bn.

Close Brothers rose as it sold its Winterflood execution services and securities business to Marex Group for £103.9m in cash as it slims down its portfolios to focus on the group's core lending activities.

Wizz Air flew higher after an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equalweight’ by Barclays, while Softcat rallied after an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ at Panmure Liberum.

Pub group Mitchells & Butlers advanced after saying it was confident that full-year results would be at the top end of consensus expectations as it continues to perform ahead of the market.

On the downside, Marshalls tumbled as it warned on profits following a weaker-than-expected performance from its landscaping products business.

Property portal Rightmove fell as it posted a jump in first-half profit and revenue but warned of slower growth in the second half.

Jupiter Fund Management slumped despite reporting better-than-expected underlying first-half pre-tax profit and improved flows.