Market navigator: week of 11 August 2025

Economic

Forex

Stocks

Summary:

US and Japan equities hit records while RBA decision and US inflation data loom this week.

Summary

What happened last week:US reciprocal tariffs took effect, while the Bank of England delivered a cautious 25 bp cut and China demonstrated export resilience.

Markets in focus:Nasdaq 100 reached new highs, Japanese markets neared historical peaks, while crude oil faced pressure from weak demand and Russia-US diplomatic developments.

The week ahead:Key focus on RBA rate decision and US inflation data, plus GDP releases from UK and Japan and earnings from Chinese tech giants.

What happened last week

Reciprocal tariffs now effective: The US implemented country-specific tariffs effective 7 August, with Switzerland unable to secure concessions on the assigned 39% levy. India faces potential tariff escalation from 25% to 50% beginning 27 August for Russian oil purchases. Market participants remain cautiously optimistic that the China trade truce deadline of 12 August will receive another 90-day extension.

Bank of England's undecisive cut: The committee narrowly approved a 25 basis point rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% after two voting rounds, balancing inflation risks potentially rising to 4% against labour market weakness. Bond futures markets reduced probability estimates for additional 2025 rate cuts to 60%, while GBP/USD strengthened 0.6% to 1.3448.

China maintains robust trade momentum: Export performance exceeded expectations with a 7.2% surge in July to $322 billion despite declining US shipments. Strong flows to the European Union, Southeast Asia, and Australia offset a 22% US contraction. Imports rose 4.1%, with integrated circuits hitting four-year highs and commodities like copper and crude oil posting gains, though sustainability concerns persist given China's property sector challenges.

Geopolitical developments influence energy markets: The scheduled Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday reflects Russia's softened diplomatic stance ahead of the Russia-Ukraine war truce deadline, following US threats of additional sanctions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures declined more than 5% during the week, reaching an eight-week low.

Markets in focus

Tech-powered advance drives US equities to new highs

Following the previous week's sharp correction triggered by deteriorating labour market conditions, equity markets demonstrated remarkable resilience. Investors largely dismissed disappointing Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data indicating manufacturing sector weakness at levels last seen in October 2024.

Despite Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, exemptions for companies committing to US production shifts provided market reassurance. The Nasdaq 100 index achieved a new record closing high on Friday, generating 4.2% weekly returns. Apple shares surged 13% following CEO Tim Cook's announcement of expanded US manufacturing plans during his Oval Office meeting with Trump.

Data analytics company Palantir delivered record-breaking $1 billion quarterly revenues, raising full-year guidance above Wall Street expectations, driving share prices up 16%. Conversely, construction equipment manufacturer Caterpillar missed estimates, citing tariff-related concerns potentially costing $1.3-$1.5 billion, with shares declining 4.0%.

The US Tech 100 bounced from the ascending trend channel's lower boundary established in mid-May, targeting the all-time high of 23,711. This suggests Elliott Wave Theory's Wave 3 remains incomplete, with a 200% Fibonacci extension from the 21 April base potentially driving the index toward 24,718 before Wave 4 correction materialises. The ascending channel's lower boundary provides support around 22,920.

Market navigator: week of 11 August 2025_1

TradingView, as of 9 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Nikkei approaches historical record

Japanese equities surged last Friday, with the Nikkei 225 advancing 2% while the Topix achieved a record close above 3,000. Performance was driven by robust corporate earnings and expectations that the US would not stack tariffs on goods that are subject to a levy higher than the broad-based 15% agreed in July.SoftBank Group rallied over 13% as its artificial intelligence investment portfolio delivered substantial returns, generating net profits of 422 billion yen last quarter compared to losses in the corresponding period last year. Sony gained 8% following earnings outperformance and upward full-year guidance revisions.

However, some Japanese corporations face headwinds from elevated tariffs and yen strength. Car giant Toyota surpassed both revenue and earnings forecasts but reduced its full-year operating income forecast by 600 billion yen to 3.2 trillion yen for the current financial year.The Japan 225 index trades just 0.9% below its historical peak established 13 months ago. Technical analysis indicates strong potential for new high achievement if the index can sustainably penetrate the current resistance level at 42,000. Failure to breakthrough could trigger a retreat to 40,180, with major support positioned around 38,164.

Market navigator: week of 11 August 2025_2

Source: TradingView, as of 8 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Crude oil faces mounting pressure

Oil market fundamentals exhibit increasing bearish characteristics as multiple supply and demand challenges converge. US crude demand has deteriorated while inventory drawdown pace has significantly decelerated according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. OPEC+'s decision at last Sunday's meeting to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September adds substantial supply pressure to an already weakening demand environment.

Geopolitical developments compound these fundamental headwinds, with recent media reports suggesting imminent Putin-Trump summit discussions regarding Ukraine war resolution. A potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine could prompt relaxation of US sanctions on Russian oil exports, further increasing global supply amid ongoing OPEC+ production increases.

Technical analysis presents a challenging outlook for US crude oil. Medium-term price movement remains constrained by the downward trend established in September 2023. Since the Israel-Iran conflict conclusion, US crude oil futures have declined 17%, rapidly breaching the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), 50-day SMA, and 20-day SMA in the past week. Current price levels at $63 receive critical support from late June local troughs. Failure to maintain these levels could trigger further decline towards $58.75.

Market navigator: week of 11 August 2025_3

Source: Trading View, as of 9 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The week ahead

The week ahead presents critical monetary policy and economic growth assessments across major economies. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision coincides with US consumer price readings on Tuesday. The inflation print carry heightened significance following disappointing employment data two weeks ago, which amplified expectations for accelerated and deeper Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

During July's meeting, the RBA surprised markets by halting rate cuts, citing requirements for sustained evidence of inflation moderating to 2.5% or below. Latest quarterly data revealing consumer price inflation further declined to 2.1% in the second quarter, representing the lowest level since Q1 2021. We anticipate the central bank will deliver a 25 basis point cut, bringing the target cash rate to 3.60% to support the Australian economy amid global uncertainties.

Economic growth comes into sharp focus with preliminary Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) releases from both the UK and Japan, while China's industrial production and retail sales data will assess the sustainability of government stimulus measure effect.Corporate earnings dynamics shift notably as US reporting activity winds down, while China's earnings season intensifies with technology giants Tencent, JD.com, and NetEase providing crucial insights into China's digital economy health and consumer spending patterns.

Market navigator: week of 11 August 2025_4

Source: LSEG Datastream

Source:IG

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Communication Shift Leaves Investors in the Dark

In April, the RBA transferred rate-setting authority entirely to its newly formed Monetary Policy Board (MPB), comprising two RBA officials, one senior Treasury representative, and six part-time external members appointed by the Treasurer. The change has significantly affected the central bank’s communication style. At its May meeting, the MPB cut the cash rate to 3.85% a more dovish move than expected while even briefly considering a larger 50-basis-point reduction due to US tariff uncertainty. The lack of pushback against market rate-cut bets in the following months encouraged traders to price in further easing.

However, July’s decision shocked markets when the board, in a rare 6–3 split, opted to hold rates steady. This reversal caused widespread investor losses and highlighted the RBA’s new approach avoiding pre-meeting signals that could be seen as “front-running” the full board’s decision. As Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis noted, this makes Australian rate calls inherently more prone to surprises compared to central banks like the US Federal Reserve, which deliberately tries to avoid jolting markets.

Board Structure Raises Decision-Making Risks

The MPB’s composition means external members hold a clear numerical advantage over internal RBA voices, raising the possibility that the governor could be outvoted on policy. Since individual votes are not disclosed, investors may not know when or if the governor’s stance was overridden. Jonathan Kearns of Challenger suggested this dynamic could embolden members to challenge internal recommendations, especially if they see policy risks differently.

In contrast, other major central banks either keep boards exclusively within the central bank (Fed, ECB) or, like the Bank of England, disclose voting records to improve transparency. The RBA’s model makes it harder for markets to gauge internal consensus, with external members expected to speak publicly only once a year.

Market Implications Ahead of August Meeting

Following a benign inflation report, markets are again betting heavily on an August rate cut to 3.60%, partly in the belief that the MPB would avoid delivering back-to-back surprises. Yet, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser admitted the July decision was less predictable than intended and stressed that while unpredictability wouldn’t become the norm, “shocks from time to time” should be expected.

This evolving governance structure puts Australia in a unique position among developed economies, introducing a layer of political appointment influence and communication opacity. For investors, the lack of consistent guidance means positioning ahead of rate announcements now carries greater risk and potentially larger swings in currency and bond markets.

The August 12 meeting will test whether the MPB is settling into a more predictable rhythm or if market participants must permanently adjust to higher policy uncertainty. If the board continues to avoid signalling its intentions, Australia could become one of the least transparent major central banks, forcing traders to rely more heavily on economic data rather than central bank commentary to anticipate moves.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Equities Supported by Earnings and Rate-Cut Hopes

Major Asian indices saw cautious upward momentum as technology sector valuations held firm on the back of upbeat earnings. Analysts at Bank of America reported that 73% of companies had beaten earnings estimates well above the long-term average of 59% and 78% exceeded revenue expectations. While mentions of “weak demand” and tariff risks persisted, corporate sentiment was said to be improving, with forward guidance turning more positive.

US equity futures reflected the cautious optimism, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edging up 0.1%, hovering near record highs. In Japan, trading was closed for the Mountain Day holiday, but futures suggested the Nikkei index could test its all-time high of 42,426 later in the week. MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index was slightly firmer, while South Korea’s KOSPI was flat after last week’s 2.9% rally.

US CPI in Focus for Policy Direction

The upcoming July US Consumer Price Index release is expected to show core inflation rising 0.3% month-on-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Analysts note that the recent slowdown in US payroll growth has shifted the Fed’s tone toward caution, increasing the likelihood of policy easing. JPMorgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman projected that the Fed could restart its rate-cut cycle in September, with a 40% recession risk but only a gradual pace of cuts.

Markets currently price a 90% probability of a September cut and at least one more reduction before year-end. However, an unexpectedly high CPI reading could challenge those expectations, potentially strengthening the dollar and pushing bond yields higher.

Geopolitical Calendar: Tariffs and Ukraine Talks

Trade policy remains a key market driver, with a US tariff deadline on Chinese goods set to expire Tuesday. Analysts widely expect an extension, but uncertainty remains over chip-sector developments after the Financial Times reported that Nvidia and AMD agreed to allocate 15% of their China revenue to the US government to secure export licenses.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on Friday’s planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss a Ukraine ceasefire. Progress in talks could raise the prospect of easing sanctions on Russian oil exports an outcome already pressuring crude prices.

Currency and Commodity Movements

Foreign exchange markets were subdued due to Japan’s holiday. The US dollar index was steady at 98.246, while the euro held at $1.1644 and the dollar traded at 147.66 yen. The Australian dollar slipped to $0.6516 ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision, with markets fully pricing a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.60%.

Gold eased 0.3% to $3,386 per ounce after last week’s volatile swings caused by tariff speculation on Swiss gold bar exports. Brent crude fell 0.6% to $66.22 a barrel, and US WTI dropped 0.7% to $63.44, with oil markets watching both the Alaska talks and Tuesday’s CPI for demand signals.

Investor sentiment this week will be shaped by the US inflation print, which could confirm or challenge the prevailing rate-cut narrative, and by geopolitical negotiations that have the potential to significantly alter trade flows and commodity pricing. With earnings strength countering macro uncertainty, markets are likely to remain in a cautious, headline-driven trading pattern.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Brent and WTI Under Pressure

By 0041 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 52 cents, or 0.78%, at $66.07 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 58 cents to $63.30. Both benchmarks extended the sharp losses recorded last week, when Brent dropped 4.4% and WTI plunged 5.1%.

The declines reflect a combination of factors: the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine that could lift restrictions on Russian exports, a planned increase in OPEC output, and demand concerns tied to global trade disruption from sweeping US tariffs.

Geopolitics Driving Sentiment

Market attention is firmly on the August 15 meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where the two leaders are set to discuss a Ukraine ceasefire. An agreement could pave the way for sanctions relief, allowing more Russian oil to flow into global markets. This expectation has weighed on prices as traders price in the prospect of increased supply.

Trump’s administration has tied the talks to a hard deadline, warning that if Moscow does not agree to peace, Russian oil buyers could face secondary sanctions. Washington has also stepped up pressure on India to cut imports of Russian crude a move that could alter existing trade flows and shift market balances.

Macro Factors Add to Uncertainty

Beyond geopolitics, traders are watching US macroeconomic data closely. Tuesday’s July consumer price index (CPI) release will be pivotal in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy. IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that a softer-than-expected CPI reading could boost hopes for earlier and deeper Fed rate cuts, stimulating economic activity and potentially supporting oil demand. Conversely, a hotter CPI print could reignite stagflation fears and delay rate cuts, weighing on consumption forecasts.

The latest round of US tariff hikes covering imports from dozens of countries and effective since Thursday is expected to dampen economic activity by forcing costly supply chain shifts and adding inflationary pressures. These measures have compounded the cautious demand outlook, with traders increasingly wary of a slowdown in global growth.

Oil prices this week will hinge on the dual catalysts of the Trump–Putin meeting and the US inflation report. A credible Ukraine peace framework could trigger a supply-driven selloff, while softer inflation data might partially offset bearish pressure through improved demand expectations. However, in the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, geopolitical risks could just as easily reverse market sentiment if sanctions intensify.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Dollar Stabilises After Weekly Decline

The dollar index was steady at 98.25, recovering from a 0.4% drop last week, as traders weighed the twin pressures of upcoming inflation data and geopolitical trade deadlines. Against the yen, the dollar remained unchanged at 147.685, with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day public holiday. The yen’s muted movement reflected both the absence of domestic trading and investor caution ahead of Tuesday’s CPI release, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Markets were fixated on the looming August 12 deadline set by President Donald Trump for a breakthrough in trade negotiations with China, particularly over semiconductor policy. Analysts, including Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne, suggested that markets are already pricing in a likely 90-day extension to the truce, which would avoid an immediate escalation to triple-digit tariffs on each country’s goods.

Adding to the intrigue, the Financial Times reported over the weekend that US chipmakers Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement to remit 15% of their Chinese revenue streams to the US government in return for export licences. This arrangement comes after Chinese state-affiliated media raised security concerns over Nvidia’s H20 chips. Weston observed that while the revenue-sharing formula could be contentious, it might offer a pragmatic resolution: “If this is Trump says 15% and we’ll call it a day, that may not be too bad.”

Chinese Economic Data Adds to Market Caution

The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses after weekend data revealed China’s producer price index fell more than economists anticipated in July, while consumer prices remained unchanged. The weak inflation figures reinforced concerns over subdued domestic demand and prolonged industrial price pressures, adding another layer of uncertainty to the trade backdrop.

The Australian dollar dipped 0.2% to $0.6515 ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting. Markets widely expect the RBA to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, reacting to softer-than-expected second-quarter inflation and the highest unemployment rate in three and a half years. The New Zealand dollar eased 0.13% to $0.59455, while the British pound was down 0.1% at $1.34405, both currencies weighed by a generally stronger dollar and risk-averse sentiment.

Cryptocurrencies Near Multi-Year Highs

In digital assets, bitcoin advanced 0.7% to $119,154, remaining close to its record peak, while ether rose 1.1% to $4,267, after touching its highest level since December 2021 on Sunday. Both cryptocurrencies are benefiting from broader investor risk appetite in the crypto sector, with traders watching whether momentum can push them to new highs in the coming sessions.

Beyond market prices, developments in US economic governance were also in focus. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japan’s Nikkei that the next Federal Reserve chair should be someone capable of reassessing the institution’s increasingly broad remit beyond monetary policy, warning that mission drift could jeopardize the Fed’s independence. Meanwhile, Wall Street Journal sources reported that the Trump administration is interviewing candidates to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, among those under consideration.

The CPI data due on Tuesday is expected to provide a crucial gauge of inflation trends and could directly shape expectations for future Federal Reserve rate decisions. At the same time, any concrete announcements from the US–China talks before or on the August 12 deadline could significantly sway investor sentiment, not only for the dollar but across global risk assets. With currency, equity, and crypto markets all closely tracking these twin storylines, the week ahead is shaping up to be a pivotal one for near-term market direction.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Trump and Putin to hold meeting in Alaska.

2. White House: Bilateral U.S.-Russia Meeting to proceed first as per Putin's request at this stage.

3. Bowman favors three rate cuts this year.

4. Tariff policies threaten the U.S. restaurant industry, and several established restaurants face hardship.

5. Partisan battle over Congressional redistricting escalates.

[News Details]

Trump and Putin to hold meeting in Alaska

U.S. Media Reports: White House considering inviting Zelenskyy to Alaska. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on August 8th, 2025, that he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15th to discuss the Ukraine crisis. According to the latest report from NBC (National Broadcasting Company) on August 9th, the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Alaska, though no final decision has been made yet. Trump previously told the media that Putin did not need to meet with Zelenskyy before their own meeting.

White House: Bilateral U.S.-Russia Meeting to proceed first as per Putin's request at this stage

According to a report by Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao on August 10th, White House officials stated on August 9th that U.S. President Donald Trump is open to holding a trilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Alaska. However, for now, the White House will arrange a bilateral U.S.-Russia meeting first as per Putin's request. NBC reported that the White House had previously considered inviting Zelenskyy to Alaska to attend the same event as Trump, who is set to meet with Putin on August 15th.

Bowman favors three rate cuts this year

In her speech, regarding monetary policy and the U.S. economy, Bowman stated that she favors three rate cuts this year, noting that recent weak labor market data has strengthened her view. The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee has kept rates unchanged this year, and Bowman supported this stance until June. However, in July, she joined Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller in supporting a 25-basis-point rate cut.

On Saturday, she urged other central bank policymakers to begin cutting rates at the Fed's next meeting in September. This "would help avoid a further unnecessary erosion in labor market conditions and reduce the chance that the committee will need to implement a larger policy correction should the labor market deteriorate further." Bowman, who was appointed to the Fed in 2018 by President Donald Trump, also reiterated her view that tariff-driven price hikes were unlikely to move inflation up in a persistent way.

Tariff policies threaten the U.S. restaurant industry, and several established restaurants face hardship

U.S. tariff policies are driving continuous cost increases in the American restaurant industry. Combined with inflation, which has reduced consumer spending on dining out, the sector now faces severe challenges. According to U.S. media reports, under the shadow of these tariffs, rising prices for food items like beef and eggs have driven up operational costs for restaurants. Many long-standing U.S. restaurants are struggling to cope. With little room to adjust to higher food costs, even minor miscalculations could push them into the red. Meanwhile, as the trade war continues to escalate, prices for goods such as tomatoes may rise further.

Partisan battle over Congressional redistricting escalates

The partisan fight over redrawing U.S. congressional districts intensified on August 8th. In Republican-led Texas, State House Speaker Burrows failed for the third time that day to convene a legislative session. On the same day, in Democratic-led California, Governor Newsom announced plans to hold a special election in November to address congressional redistricting.

U.S. states typically redraw congressional maps every 10 years based on census data, but Texas Republicans' push for redistricting this time comes just five years after the last round. Analysts noted that this partisan battle over redistricting signals an exceptionally fierce fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections.

[Today's Focus]

N/A

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Commodity

Stocks

The market continued to analyze the previous week’s poor U.S. employment data, which boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Focus then turned to tariff negotiations as President Trump announced new duties on multiple countries, including Switzerland and Brazil. Switzerland’s gold exports to the U.S. will now face a 39% tariff, driving safe-haven demand and pushing gold higher. Trump’s team is also searching for the next Fed Chair, with speculation that the choice will favor lower interest rates. U.S. PMI data beat expectations, providing support for the dollar.

In the UK, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25% as anticipated, but the decision was closer than expected, with several policymakers opposing the move. This surprise dissent helped the pound strengthen despite the cut. Meanwhile, U.S. equities staged a strong recovery, led by gains in technology stocks on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.The U.S. dollar tested lower, continuing the weakness from the U.S. employment data, but found support late in the week and closed near its highs. Gold extended gains on the Swiss tariff news, while risk sentiment improved as investors balanced ongoing trade tensions with positive U.S. earnings reports.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equities recovered last week, reversing the losses from the weak employment data as better-than-expected earnings eased fears over new tariffs. Many companies producing in the U.S. were exempted from the harshest measures, while expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also supported sentiment. The rebound is encouraging, but the Dow continues to lag behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the 10-day moving average still pointing lower. Sideways movement in the Dow is likely to continue in the near term. Resistance levels are at 44,000, 44,500, and 45,000, while support lies at 44,000, 43,000, 42,000, and 41,750.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 surged over 4% last week, returning close to historical highs as optimism grew that trade with the U.S. will be more favorable for the Japanese economy than initially expected. Strong earnings, particularly from SoftBank, also helped lift the index. The strength of the rally surprised the market and is positive for the medium-term outlook. However, in the short term the market appears overbought and remains below key resistance at historical highs, making it preferable to wait for a pullback before buying. Resistance is seen at 42,474円 and 43,000円, while support lies at 41,500円, 41,000円, and 40,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY spent the week trading sideways as the shock of the poor U.S. employment data kept volatility low. The market is now focused on signals of when Japan might raise interest rates and when the U.S. could start lowering rates. Support held last week, with the 10-day moving average pointing sideways. Range trading remains the preferred strategy this week, with U.S. inflation data in focus. Resistance is at 148, 149, and 150, while support is at 147, 146, and 145.

Gold

It was a strong week for gold prices as expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and ongoing tariff tensions encouraged buying. The latest gains were driven largely by the U.S. decision to impose steep tariffs—up to 39%—on certain Swiss gold bars, pushing U.S. gold futures to record highs. Gold remains within the wide $3,250 to $3,450 range but shows signs of breaking resistance in the coming sessions, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. Resistance is at $3,450, while support is at $3,350, $3,300, and $3,250.

Crude Oil

WTI crude closed below the key $65 support last week, falling every day on concerns over weaker global demand from new U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and fears of oversupply following OPEC+ output increases. Hopes for a potential diplomatic resolution between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine conflict also encouraged selling. With the market now below $65, a test of $60 and potentially lower is expected. Conditions are slightly oversold, so selling into strength remains the preferred strategy. Resistance is seen at $65, $70, and $75, while support is at $60 and $55.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rose over the week as buying support emerged near the previous record highs around $112,000, helped by improved risk sentiment. While new tariffs are seen as a negative for Bitcoin, the 10-day moving average is pointing sideways, suggesting limited upside in the short term. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive, making buying on weakness the preferred strategy. Resistance is at $120,000, $125,000, and $150,000, with support at $112,000, $110,000, and $105,000.

This Week’s Focus

● Tuesday: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, U.K. Unemployment Rate, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. CPI

● Thursday: Australian Unemployment Rate, U.K. GDP, E.U. GDP, U.S. PPI, U.S. Jobless Claims

● Friday: Japan GDP, Japan Industrial Production, U.S. Retail Sales, U.S. Industrial Production, U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment

This week, traders will be watching important U.S. economic data, with both inflation and retail sales reports expected to have a big impact on market direction. Another key focus is the U.S.–China trade situation, as the two countries have not yet agreed to extend their 90-day tariff truce, which is due to expire on August 12. This deadline, and any new trade headlines, could quickly change market sentiment and drive sharp moves.

Markets are also paying close attention to discussions over the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, as President Trump looks to influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates. With prices stuck in a range last week, the mix of key data releases, trade deadlines, and political developments means this could be an active week with plenty of short-term trading opportunities as the market searches for a breakout.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Market navigator: week of 11 August 2025

Summary

What happened last week

Markets in focus

Tech-powered advance drives US equities to new highs

TradingView, as of 9 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Nikkei approaches historical record

Source: TradingView, as of 8 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Crude oil faces mounting pressure

Source: Trading View, as of 9 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The week ahead

Source: LSEG Datastream

Source:IG

RBA’s New Policy Board Adds Market Uncertainty Amid Global Volatility

Communication Shift Leaves Investors in the Dark

Board Structure Raises Decision-Making Risks

Market Implications Ahead of August Meeting

Source: Reuters

Asian Equities Edge Higher Ahead of Key US Inflation Data and Geopolitical Deadlines

US CPI in Focus for Policy Direction

Geopolitical Calendar: Tariffs and Ukraine Talks

Currency and Commodity Movements

Source: Reuters

Oil Prices Extend Losses on US–Russia Peace Hopes, OPEC Output Hike, and Tariff Pressures

Brent and WTI Under Pressure

Geopolitics Driving Sentiment

Macro Factors Add to Uncertainty

Source: Reuters

Dollar Steadies as Markets Await US CPI Data and Monitor US–China Tariff Talks Amid Semiconductor Agreement

Dollar Stabilises After Weekly Decline

Chinese Economic Data Adds to Market Caution

Source: Reuters

Bowman Favors Three Rate Cuts This Year, Trump and Putin to Hold Meeting in Alaska

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Markets Await Breakout With Tariffs And Fed Chair Decision In Spotlight

U.S. Stocks

Japanese Stocks

USD/JPY

Gold

Crude Oil

Bitcoin

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Disclosure