Key technical levels - Supply zone in focus The immediate focus for traders is the $4347–$4353 supply zone, which capped upside on both Friday and Monday. A clean and sustained break above $4353 would likely open the door for a renewed push toward the all-time highs at $4381. Given the persistent buying pressure evident in recent sessions, it feels increasingly plausible that the yellow metal will soon test, and potentially break, this prior resistance level.

Gold futures and institutional order flow

Attention also remains firmly on volume and order flow in front-month gold futures, where institutional and leveraged players typically deploy capital. If XAUUSD is to accelerate higher, it is likely to be driven by gold futures, currently trading around $4356, pushing through $4387 and pulling spot prices higher in the process. A futures-led breakout would add further conviction to the bullish gold narrative.

Event risk to navigate - US CPI on the radar

With US nonfarm payrolls now behind us, traders looking to build positions may show some hesitation ahead of the upcoming US CPI inflation report. CPI remains a key event risk capable of shaping broader market sentiment into year-end, and some restraint in positioning is understandable. That said, gold's historical performance around US core CPI releases offers comfort to the bulls.

Gold's past performance around US CPI prints

Over the past 12 months, gold has rallied in the six hours following the US CPI release in 90% of instances, regardless of whether inflation surprised to the upside or downside. While past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes, this consistency highlights gold's strong underlying bid in macro-driven environments.

Summary - The bullish gold case into year-end

While this CPI outcome may prove different, any scenario that keeps Fed rate cuts in play for 2026 is likely to be sufficient to attract buyers back into gold. With technical momentum building, institutional flows supportive, and macro conditions remaining broadly constructive, gold appears well positioned to cap off 2025 as one of the year's standout performers, with fresh all-time highs firmly in sight.

Source: Pepperstone