General Market Analysis – 27/11/24

Economic

Summary:

US stock markets rallied on Tuesday as the market reacted to President-elect Donald Trump’s updated tariff pledges and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

Markets Rally After Trump Tariff Update – Nasdaq Adds 0.45%

US stock markets rallied on Tuesday as the market reacted to President-elect Donald Trump’s updated tariff pledges and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The Dow finished 0.19% higher, while the Nasdaq and S&P both added 0.45% on the day. The dollar continued to strengthen, particularly against the CAD, MXN, and CNH, with the DXY closing up 0.1% at 106.89. Treasury yields also rose following the Fed meeting minutes, which highlighted a split within the FOMC regarding the pace and extent of rate cuts. The two-year yield edged up by 0.6 basis points to 4.258%, while the ten-year yield climbed 4.6 basis points to 4.306%. Oil and gold prices remained relatively subdued, with haven factors balancing each other out as the Middle East ceasefire contends with increasing tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Brent crude fell 0.27% to $72.81, WTI dropped 0.25% to $68.77, and gold edged up 0.18% to $2,629.86.

Tariff Trades to Dominate FX Going Forward

FX traders received a glimpse of what lies ahead yesterday, as President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his plans to implement tariffs once he assumes office in early 2025. The dollar has strengthened significantly over recent weeks, particularly against the currencies of nations Trump has pledged to target, with China, Mexico, and Canada at the forefront. However, this trend had momentarily eased following the announcement that market-friendly Scott Bessent will serve as Treasury Secretary.

Trump’s strong update yesterday reignited market movement, with the dollar surging over 2.5% against the MXN, 1.5% against the CAD (hitting a four-year high), and the CNH reaching levels last seen in late July. For many traders, the session evoked memories of his previous term, when Trump’s tweets often wielded more influence than macroeconomic fundamentals. Many now anticipate a similar dynamic to unfold in 2025.

Action-Packed Trading Calendar Today

An eventful macroeconomic calendar and ongoing geopolitical developments are set to keep traders alert today. It is a busy session for antipodean markets, with key Australian CPI figures due ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest interest rate decision. Markets remain divided over whether the RBNZ will announce a 50 or 75 basis point cut.

The London session has no notable economic releases, but the New York session promises to be active, as several US economic indicators are set to be published before the Thanksgiving holiday. Prelim GDP, weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI, and core PCE data are all scheduled. The core PCE figure is likely to have the most significant impact, especially if it deviates substantially from the forecasted 0.3% month-on-month increase.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Glendon

Economic

Venu Holding Corp., the company behind Notes Live, Inc., is gearing up for an initial public offering (IPO) that could mark a significant step forward in the live event and streaming technology sector. Based in Colorado Springs, Venu Holding aims to raise $10 million in its IPO by offering 1 million shares at a price range of $10 per share. The company’s focus on providing cutting-edge virtual event management solutions and streamlining live event experiences places it in a promising position in an increasingly digital world.

What Is Notes Live, Inc.?

Notes Live, the flagship platform of Venu Holding Corp., is designed to manage both in-person and virtual live events. With a growing demand for hybrid events — those that combine live and virtual elements — Venu Holding has identified an opportunity to become a leader in this niche sector. By offering tools for seamless event streaming, ticketing, audience engagement, and event management, the platform caters to a broad range of industries, from entertainment to corporate events.

The platform has become an integral solution as businesses and event organizers seek to reach global audiences while managing both in-person and remote participants. As hybrid events continue to be in demand due to their flexibility and global reach, Notes Live is positioned to grow its market share in this fast-evolving space.

IPO Details and What to Expect

Venu Holding Corp.'s upcoming IPO plans to raise funds through the sale of 1 million shares, priced at $10 each. The company is seeking a total of $10 million in gross proceeds. These funds will be pivotal in further developing Notes Live, expanding the company's technology infrastructure, and supporting its growth strategies in the live event sector. The IPO is a significant step in the company’s trajectory to scale its operations and invest in new product development to cater to an expanding market for hybrid and virtual events.

The $10 per share price point is an appealing entry for investors, considering it is relatively modest compared to similar tech offerings. If successful, the IPO could allow Venu Holding to accelerate its growth and become a key player in the live events and digital streaming industries.

Growth Potential and Market Position

Venu Holding’s timing for an IPO could not be more strategic. As the world adapts to more virtual and hybrid events, companies like Venu Holding have an opportunity to disrupt the traditional live event space. The global live events industry is evolving, and solutions that integrate in-person and digital components are becoming more necessary for companies to remain competitive and relevant in this new landscape.

The company’s technology enables organizations to host dynamic events that are accessible from anywhere in the world, allowing both speakers and audiences to connect virtually. With significant attention on tech-driven live events, particularly in the entertainment, education, and corporate sectors, Notes Live offers a comprehensive suite of tools designed to make event management easier and more impactful.

Risks and Considerations

While the growth potential is evident, as with any IPO, investors must weigh the risks. The live event technology sector is highly competitive, with established players already offering similar services. Additionally, the success of the IPO depends on broader market conditions and how effectively Venu Holding can scale its technology platform and attract a steady stream of users. The company will need to prove that its platform can meet the evolving needs of the event industry while maintaining user engagement and profitability.

What’s Next for Venu Holding Corp.?

Looking ahead, Venu Holding aims to expand its market reach and solidify its position as a leader in the live event technology sector. The IPO will help fuel this expansion, enabling the company to reinvest in its platform and enhance its offerings. Investors will need to monitor the company’s performance post-IPO and evaluate whether its growth trajectory aligns with the ambitious goals outlined in its prospectus.

Conclusion

Venu Holding Corp. (Notes Live, Inc.) is preparing for a promising IPO that presents an exciting opportunity for investors interested in the live event and digital streaming markets. With its innovative platform, solid market positioning, and timely entry into the booming hybrid event space, the company has strong growth potential. However, as with any investment, careful evaluation and consideration of the risks involved will be crucial for potential investors.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

The CJMB IPO, set to be launched by Callan JMB Inc., presents an intriguing opportunity for investors, particularly those interested in the growing tech and financial sectors. This public offering is attracting attention due to its combination of market potential and the strategic positioning of the company. Here's an overview of the Callan JMB IPO, what investors should expect, and the factors that could influence its success.

What is CJMB (Callan JMB Inc.)?

CJMB, or Callan JMB Inc., is a company focused on innovative technology solutions and financial services. The company's core strengths lie in its unique offerings within both sectors, as it looks to leverage emerging technologies and disrupt existing market paradigms. Its business model includes a blend of traditional financial services and cutting-edge technology solutions, making it attractive to a wide range of investors.

The IPO Details

The Callan JMB IPO is set to issue shares under the ticker CJMB, with the offering amount expected to be significant. Based on the latest available details, the company is targeting a price range that would position it in the mid-tier tech space in terms of valuation. The pricing details and the volume of shares to be issued will be finalized as part of the offering process, with a potential for strong demand given the growing interest in IPOs within the tech space.

Market Position and Potential

CJMB's core business operations involve cutting-edge fintech solutions, and it aims to capitalize on the booming global demand for technological advancements in finance. The company has already established a strong presence in investment platforms, fintech apps, and automated trading technologies, placing it in a promising position for future growth.

The market conditions are ripe for this IPO, especially as investors are increasingly looking for high-growth tech firms. The global fintech market is expected to continue its expansion in the coming years, making CJMB a potential beneficiary of this trend.

Financial Outlook and Valuation

Though precise financial data from the company is not fully available at the moment, expectations are high. Based on previous filings and the nature of its industry, Callan JMB Inc. has the potential to raise significant capital during this IPO. The valuation of the company will largely depend on investor demand, market conditions, and the company's financials once they are disclosed.

It's important to consider that tech and fintech IPOs, especially those tied to the growth in automation and blockchain technologies, often attract heavy attention from institutional investors. This could drive the valuation upwards, especially if the IPO is met with strong demand.

Risks and Considerations

As with any IPO, there are inherent risks. Investors should be aware of the volatility that often accompanies early-stage public offerings, particularly in the tech sector. The market for financial technology, while expanding rapidly, is highly competitive, with many other companies vying for similar market share. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny in financial markets is increasingly becoming stringent, which could impact growth projections.

Conclusion

The CJMB IPO, from Callan JMB Inc., offers investors a compelling opportunity to tap into the rapidly growing tech-financial services sector. The company’s innovative approach to integrating financial technologies with traditional markets makes it a promising contender in the fintech space. However, as with all IPOs, there are risks involved, and potential investors should weigh these carefully.

With the IPO date approaching, the market will soon see if CJMB’s offering can meet the high expectations set by its initial filings. Keep an eye on this IPO, as it could become a significant player in the fintech landscape.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Pony AI Inc., a rising star in the autonomous driving industry, is set to debut on the public markets with its Initial Public Offering (IPO). As of the week of November 27, 2024, Pony AI aims to raise $260 million by offering 20 million shares at a price of $13 per share. With its cutting-edge technology and strong backing from some of the world’s top financial institutions, the IPO has attracted significant attention. The launch is poised to give investors an opportunity to capitalize on the rapidly growing autonomous vehicle market.

The Rise of Pony AI: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous Driving

Founded in 2016, Pony AI is spearheading innovation in the autonomous vehicle space. Its mission is to make transportation safer, more efficient, and more accessible through advanced AI-driven self-driving technologies. Pony AI’s self-driving system leverages deep learning, computer vision, and big data analytics to allow vehicles to operate autonomously in urban environments, as well as on highways. This technology enables vehicles to navigate with minimal human intervention, making the roads safer and paving the way for a fully autonomous future.

The company has achieved impressive milestones in the realm of autonomous driving, with successful tests conducted across multiple cities and its technology integrated into various test fleets. Pony AI has also collaborated with major automakers and tech companies to refine its systems and expand its reach. These partnerships have not only accelerated the development of its technology but also bolstered its credibility in a competitive industry. As of its IPO filing, Pony AI is looking to expand these partnerships and continue enhancing its AI capabilities.

The IPO Process: Backed by Heavyweights

Pony AI's IPO is being underwritten by a group of prestigious financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Securities, Deutsche Bank Securities, Huatai Securities, and Tiger Brokers. These companies bring decades of experience in managing high-profile public offerings, positioning Pony AI for a successful debut in the market.

The IPO aims to raise $260 million by offering shares at an initial price range of $13 each. The funds generated from the offering will be used to accelerate the development of Pony AI’s autonomous driving systems, expand its fleet of autonomous vehicles, and scale its operations. As the global demand for autonomous vehicles continues to grow, Pony AI plans to use the capital to capitalize on market opportunities in both the consumer and commercial sectors.

Market Growth Potential: Autonomous Vehicles on the Horizon

The autonomous vehicle market is poised for explosive growth in the coming decades. Analysts estimate that the industry could reach trillions of dollars by 2030, driven by increasing demand for safer, more efficient, and eco-friendly transportation solutions. Pony AI, with its strong technology base and strategic partnerships, is well-positioned to become a key player in this multi-billion-dollar sector.

Beyond consumer vehicles, Pony AI has been exploring applications for its technology in logistics, ride-hailing, and freight. The company’s potential to disrupt multiple sectors with its self-driving solutions makes it an attractive investment prospect for both traditional and tech-focused investors. Moreover, the company's innovations in AI and machine learning provide a competitive edge that will allow it to scale rapidly as market demand increases.

What Investors Can Expect

The market reaction to Pony AI’s IPO will likely be closely watched, with expectations high given the company’s strong market position and future growth potential. The IPO not only offers a chance to invest in a cutting-edge technology but also aligns with broader trends in the automotive and technology sectors, making it an appealing option for investors looking to tap into the next frontier of transportation.

Pony AI’s IPO is also noteworthy because it signals the continued maturation of the autonomous driving industry. As more companies go public, including established firms and startups, investors will have a wider array of opportunities to gain exposure to this transformative technology. For Pony AI, the IPO marks the next step in its journey toward becoming a global leader in self-driving solutions.

Conclusion: A New Era in Transportation

Pony AI's upcoming IPO marks a critical juncture for the company and the autonomous vehicle industry as a whole. With its advanced technology, strategic partnerships, and growing market demand for autonomous solutions, the company is positioned to lead the way in transforming the transportation landscape. For investors, this IPO offers a unique opportunity to get in on the ground floor of one of the most promising sectors of the next decade.

As Pony AI moves closer to its IPO date, all eyes will be on how the stock performs post-launch. For those with a keen interest in technology and innovation, Pony AI could become a company to watch as it plays an increasingly prominent role in shaping the future of mobility.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin edged off multiday lows on Nov. 26 after a brutal day liquidated over $500 million of crypto longs. Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_1

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin risks new sell-off if $92,500 zone lost

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed $92,600 forming a local BTC price bottom on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD had fallen $5,000 over the course of the Nov. 25 daily candle, and a modest bounce from the lows was not enough to convince market participants that the worst was over.

“Nothing about this chart resembles a validated support test for $BTC,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, commented in part of an X post about 4-hour timeframes.

“At least not without landing on anything that looks like s prior consolidation or R/S Flip level. I could be wrong, but this feels like a short term bounce to trap some longs.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_2

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_2

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

Popular trader Skew flagged the area immediately beneath the local lows as essential for bulls to hold.

“To me the $92.5K - $92K area on BTC is very important now,” he told X followers.

“Losing that I think the market as whole would sell off.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_3

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew/X

A further post described $92,500 as the “pivotal price between higher & a deeper correction.”

“A nice similarity here though is the pullback so far is around the same % as the previous ATH to initial low pullback,” Skew noted, referring to Bitcoin’s first trip to $93,500 earlier in November.

BTC traders retain taste for leverage

Meanwhile, data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put total cross-crypto liquidations over the 24 hours to the time of writing at $525 million.

“See how nicely the levered longs were swept. Nothing left to liquidate on the long side,” Sina, co-founder of asset management firm 21st Capital, reacted on X.

“Now imagine what can happen if the price begins rising and takes out that $1.5B short liquidation level at $97K.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_4

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_4

Bitcoin exchange liquidation map (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Sina added that Bitcoin had a chance to launch another “assault” on $100,000 if funding rates were to stay at manageable levels.

On a cautionary note, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, warned that overall leverage remained elevated despite the liquidation event.

“Despite the recent deleveraging, leverage levels remain high,” he commented alongside CryptoQuant data.

“Key long positions were built around $93K, giving bears a chance to profit before the price approaches this level.” Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_5

Bitcoin Price Dip Fails to Squeeze Leverage as $92.5K Becomes ‘Pivotal’_5

Bitcoin adjusted estimated leverage ratio. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

"The AUD is proving sensitive to Trump’s posts and declined on the news that tariffs are not going to be delayed," says David Forrester, Senior FX Strategist at Crédit Agricole.

Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on "day one" of his new administration in January and threatened a further 10% tariff on all products from China.

The comments were made on his Truth Social network as he castigated Canada and Mexico for allowing illegal immigrants into the U.S.

He also took aim at China as being the source of fentanyl that is finding its way into the U.S.

"Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America," Trump said.

The Australian Dollar is seen as potentially vulnerable to tariffs via their impact on the Chinese economy, Australia's biggest trading partner.

Investment bank GBP/AUD consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. Featuring the median, mean, high and low points forecasted by over 30 investment banks.

Markets started the new week in a good mood following Trump's decision to nominate Scott Bessent to Treasury Secretary, interpreting this as a sign Trump would be more pragmatic in his approach to tariffs.

"We would view this as a timely intervention from President-elect Trump that sends a very clear signal to the financial markets – that the reaction to the nomination of Scott Bessent was wrong – there will be no soft or balanced approach to trade tariff policy," says Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets at MUFG Bank Ltd.

The Australian Dollar fell to its lowest level since August against the U.S. Dollar following Trump's tariff comments. AUD/USD has since pared some of the fall and is quoted at 0.6483.

The Pound to Australian Dollar conversion is a third of a per cent higher on the day at 1.9382.

Although the AUD is the second-worst performing G10 currency in the wake of Trump's tariff comments, Forrester says there is a source of support that can shield it from excessive weakness.

"Unlike Trump’s first term, however, the AUD will have an underlying support of a likely rise in the Australian-US short-term rates differential. The RBA is holding off on rate cuts while the Fed continues to cut rates. This rates spread was declining during Trump’s first term as the RBA was cutting rates while the Fed was hiking rates," he explains.

The RBA is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in the second quarter of 2025, which puts it far behind the majority of the world's major central banks.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The dollar rallied sharply on Tuesday after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pledged tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and additional tariffs on China.

Asian stocks declined, giving back some of the robust gains of the previous session, when they were buoyed by the nomination of fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, considered by investors as a voice for Wall Street in Washington.

Bessent's appointment had also led to a sharp fall in U.S. yields as investors scooped up Treasury bonds, sending the dollar sliding in the previous session.

"It's almost as if Trump wants to remind markets who is in control, after nominating Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec - a man markets expected to cool Trump's potency," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

"With the Canadian dollar rising against the Mexican peso, markets are assuming this will hit Mexico the hardest."

The dollar jumped 1.5% to 20.5810 Mexican pesos as of 0549 GMT on Tuesday, and climbed 0.9% to C$1.4115 .

It strengthened 0.25% to 7.2644 yuan in offshore trading , after earlier reaching the highest since late July at 7.2730 yuan.

Australia's risk-sensitive dollar - which also tends to reflect the outlook for top trading partner China - declined 0.25% to $0.6488, after earlier dipping to $0.64335 for the first time since Aug. 5.

"It was just last month that Trump said that 'the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff', so there really should not have been a surprise in Trump's intention, just in the timing of the comments," said Sean Callow, a senior FX analyst at ITC Markets.

"The fall in trade-sensitive currencies makes sense, and should persist near term."

Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.4%, giving back Monday's gains, as investors contemplated the risks of tariffs on the nation's many heavyweight exports, particularly automakers. Toyota slid more than 2% and Nissan tumbled almost 4%.

Australia's stock benchmark eased 0.69%, a day after rising to a record high. Taiwan's share index lost 0.9%.

However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat, while mainland blue chips eased 0.2%, after fluctuating between small gains and losses.

Trump said in a post on Truth Social that on his first day in office he would impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, citing concerns over illegal immigration and the trade of illicit drugs.

Trump has previously threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60%.

"It's definitely a shock to the market and weighing on Chinese assets, especially the export sectors," said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis.

"But compared to what he imposed on Canada and Mexico, the magnitude (of the Chinese tariff) is not that big, so investors might still want to see what are the follow ups and when/if the 60% promised will actually come through."

U.S. S&P 500 futures pointed 0.1% lower following a 0.3% gain in the cash index overnight.

Pan-European STOXX 50 futures dropped 0.9%.

The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.0475. Sterling lost 0.17% to $1.2548.

At the same time, the dollar weakened 0.3% to 153.66 yen , after initially strengthening following Trump's tariff remarks.

The dollar-yen pair tends to track long-term U.S. Treasury yields , which ticked up about 2 basis points to 4.2809% in Tokyo, but following a 15 basis-point slide on Monday.

Bitcoin rose 1% to $94,661, finding its feet following a pullback from last week's record high at $99,830. The token has benefited from speculation of an easier regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump.

Gold succumbed to the dollar's strength, dipping to a one-week low of $2,604.99.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.4% at $9,010.50 per metric ton, while the most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange eased 0.1% to 73,900 yuan a ton.

Oil prices rebounded slightly from the previous session's slump as investors weighed a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

Brent crude futures added 0.25% to $73.19 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.23% to $69.10 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled down $2 per barrel on Monday.