April 2025 UK GDP: The Start of A Soft Q2

Forex

Economic

Summary:

On an MoM basis, the economy shrunk by a larger than expected 0.3% in April, the first such monthly contraction since October of last year, and the largest such fall in 18 months. In turn, this saw the rolling 3-month pace of growth remain at 0.7%, almost entirely underpinned by a strong pace of expansion in Feb & Mar.

April 2025 UK GDP: The Start of A Soft Q2_1

This economic contraction, though, shouldn't come as a particular surprise, albeit the usual caveats around the volatile and somewhat unreliable nature of the monthly GDP series must continue to apply. Said contraction comes largely as a result of payback from a surprisingly strong Q1, as the positive impacts of tariff front-running, as well as the pull forward of 'big ticket' purchases ahead of the various April tax changes are unwound.

That said, the figures do represent a soft start to what is likely to be a soft quarter overall, with leading indicators such as the latest PMI surveys pointing to the economy, at best, flat-lining in the Apr-Jun period. Clearly, numerous downside risks remain, not only in the form of elevated global trade uncertainty, but also as the full impact of the recent National Insurance increase is felt, and as another round of tax hikes likely lie in wait in this autumn's Budget.

The Bank of England, however, are near-certain to hold Bank Rate steady at 4.25% next Thursday, holding off on further easing until the August MPC meeting, amid continued concern over potentially persistent price pressures. The temporary nature of the summer 'hump' in inflation, coupled with rapid labour market loosening, and numerous downside growth risks, is though likely to lead to the MPC delivering a considerably faster pace of easing once summer is out, potentially even necessitating cuts in larger clip sizes too. The 'gradual and careful' policy guidance continues to put the MPC far behind the curve, and seems on borrowed time.

Source: Pepperstone

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Economic

Forex

Rethinking Dollar Dominance in Asia

The longstanding supremacy of the U.S. dollar in global finance is being re-evaluated across Asia. While de-dollarization is not a new concept, recent geopolitical and economic shifts—especially under the Trump administration’s assertive trade policies—have reshaped the urgency and execution of this trend.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) recently laid out a strategic plan for 2026–2030 aimed at encouraging trade settlements in local currencies and enhancing regional payment systems. This reflects not just a policy decision, but a structural recalibration in response to rising exchange rate volatility and diminishing confidence in the greenback's stability as a neutral medium.

Catalysts for Change: Policy Volatility and Financial Weaponization

The core driver behind de-dollarization is strategic risk mitigation. As Mitul Kotecha from Barclays notes, the dollar has been increasingly used as a “weapon” through sanctions and trade leverage. This realization has pushed governments and investors in Asia to reassess dollar-heavy portfolios and prepare for alternative reserve and transactional systems.

This is particularly relevant in the context of the dollar's 8% depreciation this year and the broader decline in its share of global reserves—from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024. Though cyclical factors contribute to this weakening, the trend signals longer-term doubts about the dollar’s reliability amid U.S. policy unpredictability.

ASEAN and Beyond: Conversion and Hedging Behavior

According to Bank of America, the de-dollarization movement in ASEAN is gaining traction through two channels: the conversion of dollar-denominated deposits back to local currencies, and increased hedging of dollar exposure by institutional investors. Countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are leading this charge due to their high levels of foreign asset holdings.

FX hedging—particularly among life insurers, pension funds, and hedge funds—is playing a pivotal role. For instance, Japanese life insurers’ hedge ratio has risen from 44% to 48% in recent months, while Taiwan's stands around 70%. These shifts indicate a strategic pivot to protect against dollar fluctuations while boosting local currency liquidity.

China and BRICS: Building Alternative Systems

China is spearheading broader de-dollarization efforts beyond ASEAN by pushing for yuan-based bilateral trade and creating alternatives to the SWIFT system through BRICS cooperation. These moves aim to establish a multipolar financial order, one less dominated by U.S. oversight or influence.

However, while bilateral trade in local currencies is expanding, replacing the U.S. dollar’s deep integration into financial infrastructure remains a long-term challenge. Unlike the yuan, the dollar benefits from unparalleled liquidity, vast bond markets, and global trust built over decades.

Structural vs. Cyclical De-Dollarization

Despite growing momentum, analysts caution that the current de-dollarization wave may still be cyclical. Cedric Chehab from BMI emphasizes that a true structural shift would require either sustained and aggressive sanctions by the U.S. or domestic policy changes mandating reserve reallocation toward local assets.

Moreover, the decline in dollar usage is mostly affecting reserves and not yet strongly disrupting its role in trade invoicing—over 50% of global trade still uses the U.S. dollar. Thus, while central banks may diversify, the dollar remains foundational for international commerce.

Gold as the Quiet Beneficiary

Amid the gradual retreat from dollar reserves, one consistent winner has emerged: gold. As central banks reduce dollar holdings, many are reallocating to gold due to its historical role as a hedge against currency and political risks. This aligns with forecasts suggesting gold’s reserve share will rise further as financial systems diversify.

Asia’s shift away from the dollar reflects deeper geopolitical and monetary realignments rather than just cyclical market behavior. While the dollar remains king in terms of liquidity and trust, its share in reserves and investments is slowly eroding due to strategic recalculations by Asian economies.

Still, dethroning the greenback requires more than dissatisfaction—it demands credible alternatives, deeper capital markets in local currencies, and consistent macroeconomic policy frameworks. Until then, what the world is witnessing is not a dollar collapse, but the early chapters of a multipolar currency era.

Source: CNBC

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The High Stakes of AI Autonomy

The race to dominate artificial intelligence is increasingly framed by geopolitical competition—particularly between the U.S. and China. With Washington intensifying export controls on AI-critical semiconductors, China has responded with a policy-driven surge in domestic innovation. However, creating a self-reliant AI chip supply chain remains a complex and uneven journey.

Export restrictions imposed by the U.S. not only prevent Chinese companies from acquiring Nvidia’s top-tier AI chips but also block access to the very tools and know-how needed to manufacture competitive alternatives. In effect, China is simultaneously pushed toward innovation and denied the infrastructure to scale it—especially in areas such as lithography and high-efficiency fabrication.

Chip Design: Huawei Leads the Domestic Charge

China’s strongest advances are visible in the design phase. While Nvidia remains the global benchmark, Chinese firms—particularly Huawei’s HiSilicon—are closing the gap. Huawei’s Ascend 910B and the anticipated 910C show performance improvements, reducing the lag from two years to just one generation behind Nvidia’s H20.

This progress suggests that China’s GPU design capabilities are maturing, aided by government subsidies and a surge in AI chip startups like Enflame and Biren Technology. But even with design breakthroughs, the real challenge lies downstream in fabrication and yield efficiency.

Fabrication: SMIC’s Technological Ceiling

Manufacturing remains China’s weak link. SMIC, the country’s most advanced chip foundry, is limited to 7nm processes—far behind Taiwan’s TSMC, which has moved into mass production at 3nm. Although SMIC was linked to a 5nm 5G chip for Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, the achievement likely relied on workaround methods that aren't scalable.

The broader issue lies in the absence of cutting-edge fabrication tools. U.S. blacklists prevent TSMC and other advanced foundries from serving Chinese firms. Consequently, China must rely on SMIC’s less efficient production capacity, which struggles to produce high-performance GPUs at commercial yield rates.

Advanced Equipment: The ASML Bottleneck

The heart of China’s fabrication dilemma lies with lithography. The Netherlands’ ASML dominates the market for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines required for 3nm and smaller nodes. Due to U.S.-aligned restrictions, China is cut off from acquiring these machines.

Although Chinese firms like SiCarrier Technologies are attempting to develop domestic alternatives, progress is slow and uncertain. Deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems provide temporary relief, allowing SMIC to manufacture at 7nm, but yields are poor and likely unsustainable for meeting large-scale AI demand.

Rather than imitate EUV tech, Chinese strategists may pivot toward novel lithography technologies in an effort to leapfrog existing barriers—a high-risk, long-horizon approach.

Memory Chips: Momentum Amid Limitations

In contrast, China’s performance in memory production is comparatively stronger. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is crucial for AI workloads, and while global leaders like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron dominate the market, China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is beginning to fill the void.

CXMT, in collaboration with Tongfu Microelectronics, is reportedly developing early-stage HBM capabilities. While still nascent, this signals strategic alignment with the AI chip value chain. Nonetheless, South Korea's alignment with U.S. restrictions since late 2024 has made it harder for China to source world-class HBM chips, increasing the urgency for domestic innovation.

Parallel Progress and Bottlenecks

China’s AI chip ecosystem is evolving under pressure—driven by necessity and backed by massive state investment. Notably, advances in GPU design and memory suggest that targeted gains are achievable even under export curbs. Yet the inability to access EUV lithography and advanced fabrication tools leaves China structurally handicapped.

The broader implication is that China’s AI ambitions remain dependent on breakthroughs in manufacturing capacity. Until then, the ecosystem will rely on strategic workarounds, lower-yield production, and design improvements. While Beijing’s long-term play may yield autonomy, the current trajectory reveals a system under construction—progressing, but not yet competitive on a global scale.

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China–U.S. Trade War

A Tariff Truce That Offers Little Relief

President Trump’s declaration that the trade war with China is “done” and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s confirmation that tariffs will remain at a stacked 55% have done little to reassure U.S. logistics firms or importers. Although touted as a resolution, the fixed tariff level is being perceived not as a victory but as a long-term burden, especially by retail leaders and supply chain operators who say the structural damage has already taken place.

Executives like Alan Baer of OL USA stress that very few businesses can absorb such high tariffs without passing the cost to consumers. From cleaning product suppliers to apparel and footwear brands, the common thread is economic strain—rising prices, threatened jobs, and compressed margins. Steve Lamar of the American Apparel and Footwear Association went as far as calling the current tariff stack "not a win for America," citing negative impacts on everyday families and seasonal buying trends.

Lagging Imports and Freight Volumes Confirm Tariff Shock

The ripple effects are already visible across the logistics landscape. Import volumes from key trade partners such as China, South Korea, and Italy are down year-over-year, while Vietnam and India—part of the “China-plus-one” diversification trend—have gained momentum. Despite this shift, the overall U.S. import ecosystem remains unstable. Empty container backlogs at ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach point to inefficiencies and a glut of unprocessed cargo. Intermodal and truckload volumes are also down sharply—by 7.42% and 13.37%, respectively—suggesting that both rail and trucking sectors are losing revenue-generating cargo flows.

Even temporary truce measures—like the 90-day tariff pause—are yielding uneven results. While some importers have rushed to front-load goods such as Halloween decorations or automotive parts, these moves are viewed as short-term workarounds, not signs of recovery. Freight analyst Dean Croke warns that although summer activity may appear “busy,” carriers will likely spend the rest of the year “playing catch-up,” as the second quarter—a critical planning window—was effectively lost to policy volatility.

Trust in Policy Stability Has Eroded

Perhaps the most serious issue isn’t the tariff itself, but the breakdown of trust. Executives are concerned that trade policies can change “in a tweet,” creating an environment where long-term planning becomes nearly impossible. As CH Robinson’s Noah Hoffman highlighted, importers are now more focused on navigating uncertainty than seizing growth opportunities. The practice of carrying holiday inventory in mid-year only underscores how businesses have adapted to erratic regulatory changes.

This sentiment was echoed by Andrew Abbott of Atlantic Container Lines, who said EU trade volumes have surged temporarily as firms brace for potential tariff changes similar to the U.K. experience. The instability is also impacting shipping decisions—U.S. exporters face constrained access to containers, while ocean freight companies continue “blank sailings” that disrupt schedules and increase costs.

Tariff Fallout Extends Beyond China

Though the U.S.–China deal garners headlines, its effects are global. The container bottleneck, reduced vessel calls, and leaner port operations are being felt at major trade nodes like New York, Houston, and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, global manufacturing—especially out of Asia—has fallen to a 17-month low, according to GEP’s Supply Chain Volatility Index. This suggests that the combined effects of tariffs, economic uncertainty, and reduced consumer demand are putting the broader global trade ecosystem under sustained pressure.

Despite political declarations of resolution, the logistics and retail sectors indicate that the real economic cost of the trade war is only just unfolding. A 55% tariff may mark a policy ceiling, but for supply chains, it’s a floor of pain. The inflation shock may be delayed, but it is not dodged. Importers are adapting reactively, warehousing strategies have shifted from efficient to defensive, and domestic trucking and freight operators face demand suppression. Until the trade environment becomes both transparent and consistent, recovery in freight and retail will remain conditional—not on deals—but on stability.

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Soft Inflation Fails to Soothe Market Fears

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose just 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%. The annual inflation rate matched forecasts at 2.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, also undershot expectations at 2.8%. While the subdued inflation figures might typically encourage optimism and support for rate cuts, they instead reveal deeper uncertainty. Despite the benign numbers, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. economy could face deteriorating fundamentals, highlighting the exhaustion of pandemic-era fiscal and monetary supports.

President Trump declared a renewed framework for the U.S.-China trade relationship, stating that duties would total 55%—a combination of the pre-existing 30% blanket tariff and an added 25% on select products. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attempted to temper speculation, emphasizing that no further changes to the tariff regime were expected. Nonetheless, markets remained cautious. The S&P 500 declined 0.27% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%, reflecting investor skepticism over whether such trade pronouncements will hold amid the administration's erratic approach to global economic policy.

Data Reliability and Policy Messaging in Question

Analysts like Seema Shah have voiced concerns that the CPI data might not yet reflect the full inflationary impact of tariffs. She warns that price shocks may take several months to manifest. The complexity of forecasting has deepened due to geopolitical noise and conflicting policy signals from the White House and the Federal Reserve. Vice President JD Vance even criticized the Fed’s stance, calling its reluctance to cut rates "monetary malpractice."

Amid this confusion, President Trump is reportedly considering a "shadow" Federal Reserve chair—someone who could influence the central bank’s policy tone in alignment with White House objectives, despite Jerome Powell’s current term lasting until 2026. This raises questions about the Fed's independence and the future direction of monetary policy.

Political Drama and Public Distractions

Adding to the volatility, high-profile public figures have continued to stir political and financial discourse. Elon Musk reversed his criticism of Trump, retracting recent controversial posts. Meanwhile, Trump signaled that Musk’s Starlink technology would remain in use at the White House, suggesting a political reconciliation that could influence market sentiment surrounding tech and defense sectors.

In parallel, broader macroeconomic trends are shifting global dynamics. ASEAN has committed to increasing the use of local currencies in trade and investment through its 2026–2030 Economic Community Strategic Plan. This push for de-dollarization reflects growing concerns about overdependence on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical instability. The greenback’s share of global forex reserves has declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024, underscoring the gradual erosion of dollar dominance and hinting at long-term structural changes in global finance.

Despite data that would traditionally be seen as positive—lower inflation and trade stabilization—market reaction remains tepid. Investors appear increasingly wary of trusting official statements or interpreting short-term numbers as indicators of sustained recovery. Uncertainty over tariffs, political interference in central banking, and shifting global monetary alliances signal that a deeper recalibration of both market expectations and economic leadership may be underway. In this volatile environment, cautious interpretation and strategic diversification are more essential than ever.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Political

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he won’t rush into a trade deal with the US that would hurt the nation’s interests, although he’d welcome any progress made before an expected summit with US President Donald Trump.

“If there’s progress before I meet the president, that’s in and of itself good,” Ishiba told reporters in Tokyo Thursday. “But what’s important is to achieve an agreement that’s beneficial to both Japan and the US. We won’t compromise Japan’s interests by prioritizing a quick deal.”

Ishiba is expected to meet Trump on the sidelines of the Group of Seven leaders gathering in Canada starting Sunday, but Ishiba said the time and date for the bilateral hasn’t been set. The prime minister spoke following a gathering with opposition party leaders to discuss US tariffs. Collaborating beyond party lines is necessary to deal with what can be considered a national crisis, Ishiba said.

Ishiba’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is expected to travel to North America later this week as Japan continues to aim for a reprieve from the US tariffs, which put the country at risk of a technical recession.

Source: Bloomberg

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Headline and Core Inflation Below Forecasts

According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s report released on June 11, CPI increased just 0.1% in May, below the 0.2% rise expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 2.4%, aligning with forecasts. More notably, the core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — also rose only 0.1% for the month and 2.8% year-over-year, both below projections of 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively.

This lower-than-expected inflation reading offers a short-term sense of relief to markets concerned about the inflationary impact of recent tariffs. However, energy prices fell 1% during the month, while food and shelter costs climbed 3% annually. Notably, egg prices fell 2.7% in May but remain 41.5% higher than a year ago, indicating lingering supply and pricing issues in key consumer goods.

A Calm Before the Storm?

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, urged caution in interpreting the data. She noted that while the current CPI report seems benign, it may not yet reflect the lagged effects of import tariffs. “It's too early to conclude that the price shock won’t materialize,” she warned, indicating that the CPI may understate the medium-term inflation threat posed by the trade war.

Trump’s recent escalation of trade measures — including reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in July — adds a layer of complexity to future price movements. While some sectors might benefit from domestic substitution, import-reliant industries could face mounting cost pressures, which would gradually trickle down into consumer prices.

Implications for the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, which closely monitors core inflation as part of its dual mandate, now faces a policy crossroads. While May’s data supports a continued pause in rate hikes, uncertainty surrounding trade policy and inflation expectations could force the Fed to remain cautious. Market analysts now predict the Fed is unlikely to adjust rates until at least September, pending clearer insights into how tariffs affect pricing dynamics.

President Trump, however, has renewed his calls for rate cuts, arguing that a slower labor market and soft inflation warrant policy easing. Nonetheless, the Fed appears reluctant to react too quickly, given the risk of future inflation acceleration and global geopolitical instability.

Market Response: A Cautious Uptick

U.S. equity futures responded positively to the CPI data. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 rose nearly 0.3%, and the Dow Jones advanced by 54 points (0.1%). Investors are pricing in a longer period of stable interest rates, hoping for a soft landing scenario that avoids both runaway inflation and an economic slowdown.

While the May inflation report offers tentative reassurance that tariffs haven’t yet sparked a price surge, economists remain wary of delayed effects. The disconnect between current data and forward-looking risks suggests that policymakers and investors should prepare for potential turbulence. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this inflation lull is sustained or merely the calm before a tariff-driven storm.