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      XAUUSD: Trading Overcrowded, Be Careful of Short-Term Retracement

      Commodity
      Summary:

      The USDX may rebound in the short term as bearish news is released, and gold may retrace in the short term.

      Sell XAUUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1888.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1838.00

      TGT PRICE

      1928.00

      SL PRICE

      1967.87 +11.63 +0.59%

      4000

      Points

      Loss

      1838.00

      TGT PRICE

      1928.10

      CLOSING

      1888.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1928.00

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Since last October, the market has been optimistically expecting the Fed to slow down interest rate hikes because of the continuous slowdown in U.S. inflation data. However, based on Fed Chairman Powell's speech and the information revealed in the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting, the market may have underestimated the Fed's determination to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Also, such over-optimism is not expected by the Fed, which will stimulate and make inflation harder to manage. Thus, the market needs to be in line with the Fed fully and adequately to curb inflation. If the market starts to be optimistic about the late interest rate trend now, it will trade the easing results first, and inflation will be harder to control sufficiently. 
      Although the December employment data saw a marginal easing in the labor market and payrolls cooling, the unemployment rate is at a half-century low, and the high ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed are both indicating that the labor market is still tight, and it is still too early to talk about rate cuts and stopping rate hikes. It is better not to underestimate the Fed's determination to raise rates. In addition, the eurozone's inflation cooled unexpectedly, which may fail to support the ECB's continuous hawkishness, and the USDX may rebound soon.
      In general, the USDX will top this year, and the long end interest rate will drop. Nevertheless, short-term trading is overcrowded, so it is recommended to be careful of the gold retracement under the short-term policy expectations change.  

      Technical Analysis

      Regarding the daily chart, MACD forms a golden cross, with the moving averages lining closely. Besides, before losing the 10-day moving average of 1845.80, gold tends to oscillate upward. Furthermore, the initial resistance is close to 1880, while the next resistance is near 1892.4, with further resistance in 1900. The stronger resistance is next to 1919.81, which is also the high of April 29th. Currently, the doji star has shown in 3 days continuously, indicating a topping pattern soon.  XAUUSD: Trading Overcrowded, Be Careful of Short-Term Retracement _1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 1888.000
      Target price: 1820.000
      Stop loss: 1925.000
      Support: 1859.320/1818.500
      Resistance: 1900.000/1919.800
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Damon

      Analyst

      I worked as an analyst at a well-known forex brokerage firm and have been engaged in the financial industry for 10 years, involving forex, futures and stocks. I'm especially good at analyzing and interpreting the market using fundamental data.

      Rank

      10

      Articles

      122

      Win Rate

      46.74%

      P/L Ratio

      0.92

      Focus on

      ETH-USDT, BTC-USDT, XAUUSD

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