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      WTI: Rate Hike Expectation Heats, Will Oil Decline Again?

      Commodity
      Summary:

      Crude oil suffers a sell-off amid systemic risks, with prices showing a breakdown to the downside.

      Buy WTI
      End Time
      CLOSED

      65.600

      ENTRY PRICE

      70.100

      TGT PRICE

      62.100

      SL PRICE

      73.254 +0.367 +0.50%

      1005

      Points

      Profit

      62.100

      SL PRICE

      66.605

      CLOSING

      65.600

      ENTRY PRICE

      70.100

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Macroscopically: the market risk-aversion sentiment regarding the storms in the SVB, the First Republic Bank, and Credit Suisse is eased with Wall Street saving the First Republic Bank by injecting 30 billion USD from 11 large banks. However, the ECB chose an unexpected interest rate hike of 50 basis points, ignoring the risks to the financial markets and aiming at anti-inflation shortly, which may be an alarm for the Fed's rate hike. Now, the market may stay overly optimistic about the banking system, as last October when Credit Suisse was rumored to go bankrupt, most experts, academics, and analysts thought it was no big deal, Credit Suisse had a healthy balance sheet and would not become the next Lehman. Currently, after what happened to SVB, happens to Credit Suisse. But this time the high interest rates have impacted the liquidity in Banking and Treasury market, etc. Thus, the outcome may be not so optimistic, and unconventional phenomena such as high interest rates, high liquidity replenishment, and high inflation will appear for a long period.
      Inventory: EIA's report indicated that crude oil inventories in the US increased slightly by 1.55 million barrels in the week ending March 10th, compared to an increase of 1.694 million barrels and an expected increase of 1.118 million barrels. Besides, crude oil production was unchanged at 12.20 million bpd, while crude oil imports decreased by 1.72 million bpd and crude oil exports increased by 1.665 million bpd to 5.027 million bpd. In addition, the four-week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.698 million bpd, 6.4% lower than a year ago. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks remained unchanged last week for the eighth consecutive week, staying at 371.6 million barrels.
      News: Saudi state media reported that Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak met in the Saudi capital for a discussion about OPEC+ efforts, targeting to maintain market balance. The report demonstrated that the two countries remain committed to the OPEC+ decision last October to cut production targets by 2 million bpd by the end of 2023. 
      In general: Macroscopical panic dominated, with crude oil suffering a sell-off under systematic risks and showing a broken downward trend in the daily/weekly/monthly chart. In addition, crude oil reaches a new low of the year, while risks may still accumulate. In the near term, it is expected that a bullish industry may support crude oil to stop declining. Now, crude oil's trend is linked with market sentiment, facing a dilemma: on the one hand, the market's risk preference has been changed by a broken technical analysis and pessimistic sentiment, and improving factors are urgently needed to improve the situation. On the other hand, ECB's determination may strengthen the market expectation of continuously tightening monetary policy, which is detrimental to future oil demand.

      Technical Analysis

      Referring to the daily chart, WTI is confirmed to plunge below the channel, and it may extend the previous depreciation. As for resistance, the key resistance will be in the range of 61.52 to 65.60, while the latter is the starting point of May 2021. It is recommended to focus on December's low (70.10) for resistance.   WTI: Rate Hike Expectation Heats, Will Oil Decline Again?_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 65.600
      Target price: 70.100
      Stop loss: 62.100
      Support: 65.600/62.500
      Resistance: 70.100/73.000
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Focus on macroeconomic analysis with extra attention to the geopolitical impact on financial markets.

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      Win Rate

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