Silver prices surged sharply this week, climbing from around $50 to more than $54 per troy ounce—a move that decisively outpaced gold and sent the Gold/Silver ratio tumbling to an annual low near 77. The metal’s outsized strength has shifted market attention firmly toward the white metal, which is benefiting from a potent combination of macroeconomic tailwinds, tightening physical supply, and resurgent investor appetite.

According to Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch, the magnitude of silver’s rally is no coincidence. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could deliver a rate cut as early as the week after next have fueled broad-based gains across precious metals. However, silver’s more volatile and industrially sensitive profile has amplified its upside as easing financial conditions tend to boost demand for metals tied to manufacturing, electronics, and renewable technologies.

A significant piece of the bullish narrative stems from deepening supply tightness in China—by far the world’s largest consumer and processor of silver.Inventories registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have dropped to their lowest levels in 10 years, while holdings on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) have fallen to their lowest in more than nine years. Bloomberg data, sourced from exchanges and brokers, confirms the steep decline.

The drawdown was accelerated by China’s record silver exports, totaling 660 tons in October, a level not seen in decades. These exports—reportedly flowing into London—were aimed at easing shortages in key Western hubs, particularly after supply tightness in October pushed London vault inventories to precarious levels.

Market strategists warn that if London’s immediate shortages are resolved and exports slow, a reversion of physical flows back into China could rapidly tighten supply in the West again. Such a shift would likely amplify volatility and keep prices elevated into year-end.

Investor participation has added another powerful layer to silver’s bullish momentum.Silver exchange-traded funds tracked by Bloomberg saw inflows exceeding 290 tons in recent days, drawing more physical supply out of the market. These inflows mark a sharp turnaround from last year’s prolonged outflows.

Since January, silver ETFs have accumulated more than 3,500 tons, with the bulk of that demand arriving over the first nine months of the year. The resurgence underlines growing conviction that silver’s undervaluation relative to gold may be narrowing as macro conditions shift toward looser policy.

ETF buying has historically acted as a major amplifier of silver rallies, and the latest data suggests speculative and long-term investors are re-entering the metal at scale.

From a technical standpoint, silver’s chart structure supports the bullish scenario. The metal has shown volatile intraday swings, but price action continues to uphold the dominant upward trend visible across short-term charts.

Silver is currently grinding along a supportive ascending trend line, repeatedly absorbing dips and regaining bullish momentum. Despite entering overbought territory on relative strength indicators, the market continues to generate constructive signals that typically accompany strong uptrends.

The next major hurdle sits at $54.35, a key resistance zone that bulls are attempting to break. A decisive close above this level could open the door toward $55.80 and potentially $58.00, especially if macro conditions remain supportive and ETF inflows persist.

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 55.20

STOP LOSS: 53.00

TAKE PROFIT: 58.00

Despite Tokyo consumer inflation data surpassing forecasts, providing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with rationale for further monetary tightening, the Japanese yen (JPY) continues to struggle in attracting substantial speculative interest. Asahi Noguchi emphasized in his speech that, although yen depreciation historically benefited export competitiveness, the approach of full employment and diminishing output gap are diminishing the stimulative effects of currency depreciation, while the negative repercussions are increasingly evident. He asserts that raising interest rates can help curb inflation without hindering the government's economic growth objectives. The BOJ has previously concluded its decade-long accommodative policy and paused rate hikes after raising the policy rate to 0.5% earlier this year to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs. Asahi Noguchi indicated that as long as economic and inflation trends align with the central bank's expectations, a gradual normalization of interest rates remains appropriate. The cautious signals conveyed by the BOJ policymakers suggest that interest rate normalization will be an incremental process, prompting investors to reassess expectations for future policy steps. Furthermore, buoyed by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and prospects of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, market risk sentiment remains robust, exerting downward pressure on the yen's safe-haven status. Simultaneously, concerns persist among investors regarding Japan's substantial fiscal stimulus measures potentially worsening its fiscal position, which has led to a recent spike in Japanese government bond yields—another factor contributing to yen depreciation. Conversely, the U.S. dollar is expected to sustain its overnight rebound, providing additional support to the USDJPY exchange rate. However, market expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance are likely to exert downside pressure on the dollar and potentially restrain the USDJPY pair's appreciation.

Market expectations for interest rate cuts were bolstered by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly earlier this week expressed support for a December rate reduction, citing softening labor market conditions. Fed Board Member Christopher Waller indicated that, given the ongoing employment weakness, a further 25 basis point cut could be justified in December; however, this decision remains contingent on the release of pending economic data delayed by the U.S. government shutdown. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting has surged to 87% from 39% the previous week.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward with the SMA diverging upward, indicating a persistent bullish trend. The price has once again approached the EMA12, while the MACD suggests diminishing upward momentum. The RSI is at 61, reflecting strong bullish market sentiment. As long as the price sustains above the EMA12, upward pressure is likely to push towards the upper Bollinger Band and key psychological levels at approximately 157.7 and 160. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with SMAs leveling off, and the MACD is nearing a golden cross, with its MACD line and signal line approaching the zero-axis, signaling potential trend reversal. The RSI stands at 50, indicating a market in a wait-and-see state. If the price remains below the middle Bollinger Band, a correction towards the 154 level near the EMA200 is probable; conversely, if the price stays above the middle Bollinger Band, further gains toward approximately 158 are anticipated. It is recommended to go long at the lows in the short term.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.3

Target Price: 158.8

Stop Loss: 154

Support: 154.7, 153.2, 150

Resistance: 157, 158.8, 160

The immediate catalyst for the current leg of gold strength is not a single factor, but the entanglement of three strands: geopolitics, liquidity and rate expectations.

As the Japanese government has hardened its rhetoric on Taiwan and China has escalated both verbal and substantive counter-measures, market concern over military and trade tail-risk in Asia has risen markedly. Press reports and official statements show Beijing issuing severe warnings to Tokyo. The bilateral tension feeds almost instantaneously into risk premia. When risk appetite deteriorates, gold is traditionally the safe-haven asset of first resort, prompting a pronounced spike in spot buying.

This flight-to-quality coincides with an already dovish global rate outlook: the market has materially increased the probability of a December Fed cut. Any further decline in real yields would reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, reinforcing its appeal. Numerous market flashes and technical notes argue that the concurrent pull-back in the USD and Treasury yields provides a "soft floor" for gold, amplifying the price response when geopolitical headlines hit.

Finally, positioning and institutional flows are magnifying the move. Against the backdrop of sustained accumulation by central banks and large asset managers over recent months, even a short-term risk event is enough to unleash sizeable ETF and institutional bids, turning a headline shock into a sustained uptrend.

From the 4-hour chart perspective, gold has today made a strong breakout from the triangular consolidation range, with short-term bullish momentum significantly reinforced. The primary target for gold will be an upward test of the 4245 resistance level. Should this level be decisively breached, further upside potential will be unlocked, opening the way for gold to set a fresh record high.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4180.00

Target Price: 4340.00

Stop Loss: 4150.00

Valid Until: December 12, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 4173.43/4158.05

Resistance Levels: 4245.09/4300.00

Boosted by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget announcement, GBP/USD rose to its highest level since late October. The budget expands the government's available fiscal space over five years to nearly £22 billion through tax increases, far exceeding market expectations and significantly easing investors' concerns about the UK's long-term fiscal position. The bond market responded positively: the yield on 30-year UK gilts fell 11 basis points to 5.215%, marking the largest single-day drop since mid-April. GBP/USD gained 1.325% over the week, its best performance since August. Rory McPherson, Chief Investment Officer at Wren Sterling, noted: "It could have been a lot worse and that's what the market was fearing. Looking at the key market indicators, it has been taken positively." Institutional investors quickly adjusted their positions. Nomura closed its long EUR/GBP position, while Mizuho Securities turned bullish on UK gilts relative to U.S. Treasuries. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon praised the budget's pro-growth measures. However, some analysts, including Kallum Pickering, Chief Economist at Peel Hunt, cautioned that fiscal measures are concentrated in the latter half of the budget period and rely on potentially overly optimistic forecasts; the UK's long-term fiscal sustainability still needs monitoring.

A continued weakening of the U.S. dollar further supported the pound's rise. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.54% this week, its largest weekly decline since July. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have intensified, with traders now pricing an 85% probability of a December cut, up sharply from 30% a week ago. Recent policy signals from several Fed officials, combined with pressure from President Trump to cut rates, have exacerbated USD weakness. Although economic data resumed after the end of the U.S. government shutdown, much of it is outdated, leaving investors more reliant on Fed policy cues. George Boubouras of K2 Asset Management noted that although core inflation remains above target, labor-market softness has become the central consideration for policy. However, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate stays around 2.25%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations. UBS Global Wealth Management advised clients to shift into euros and Australian dollars and away from the U.S. dollar. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 90 basis points cumulatively by the end of next year. Barclays Global FX Strategy Head Themistoklis Fiotakis noted that interest rate differentials and growth expectations are more favorable for Europe. Moreover, if White House rate-cut advocate Kevin Hassett is nominated as the next Fed Chair, it could further pressure the U.S. dollar.

Based on the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is oscillating around the EMA12. MACD forms a death cross, and a large bearish candle appears, signaling the start of a pullback. If price breaks below EMA12, it will likely retrace toward the Bollinger Middle Band and EMA50, at approximately 1.318 and 1.316, respectively. RSI stands at 61, reflecting optimism in the market. Regarding the daily chart, the price is pressured by EMA200 and the Bollinger Upper Band. In the near term, it may return to the Bollinger Middle Band near 1.315. After the MACD and signal lines formed a golden cross, they pulled back near the zero axis, suggesting an imminent trend reversal. RSI is at 55, indicating the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Overall, the short-term rally appears to be nearing its end. Therefore, it is better to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.323

Target price: 1.29

Stop loss: 1.34

Support: 1.3/ 1.29/ 1.28

Resistance: 1.326/ 1.33/ 1.34

The GBP/JPY cross stabilized on Thursday after an early Asian-session decline, keeping the pair within close reach of its strongest level since July 2024. Although spot prices drifted modestly lower—trading just under the 207.00 handle and down around 0.10% on the day—the broader market tone still leaned in favor of sterling bulls, with traders largely unwilling to abandon a rally that has been gaining momentum for weeks.

The Japanese Yen showed signs of life as speculation intensified that Tokyo may intervene once again to counter persistent currency weakness. Markets remain sensitive to any hint of government action after authorities stepped in several times earlier this year. The threat of renewed intervention, combined with a shift toward a more hawkish stance at the Bank of Japan, helped fuel a mild intraday pullback in GBP/JPY.

Comments from BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi added to expectations that the central bank is preparing to continue unwinding its ultra-loose stance. Noguchi reiterated that if economic and price conditions evolve in line with forecasts, the BoJ will “gradually adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.” The remarks echoed a growing chorus within the central bank signaling a readiness to normalize policy sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, Japan’s latest Services Producer Price Index—the gauge closely watched for signs of cost-push inflation—suggested that inflation is moving closer to sustainably meeting the BoJ’s 2% target. That reading strengthens the argument for an interest-rate hike as soon as December, marking a stark contrast to the policy direction expected in the UK.

Yet, despite increasing expectations of a BoJ move, the yen remains weighed down by broader risk-on sentiment and deepening anxieties over Japan’s fiscal trajectory. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus posture has stirred renewed criticism from lawmakers and analysts who warn that ballooning public debt could undermine long-term financial stability. Those concerns keep the yen’s safe-haven appeal limited, allowing GBP/JPY to hold firm even when Japanese rates prospects turn more hawkish.

Sterling, by comparison, continues to derive support from this week’s UK budget unveiling, which surprised markets by revealing a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer. The government’s improved financial position has bolstered confidence in Britain’s near-term economic resilience, helping to cushion the pound against external pressures.

However, traders are becoming increasingly wary of the Bank of England’s policy trajectory. Markets now price in a strong likelihood of a BoE rate cut as early as next month—a notable divergence from the more hawkish path investors expect from the BoJ. That policy split could limit the upside potential for GBP/JPY over the medium term, even as the near-term bias remains tilted toward further gains.

The focus now turns to Friday’s release of Tokyo’s latest consumer inflation data, a critical input for the BoJ’s December meeting. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for a rate hike and generate additional volatility in yen pairs.

GBP/JPY continues to trade with a pronounced bullish tone after breaking decisively above the 206.00 level earlier in the week. The pair has since extended its advance toward the 206.90–207.20 zone, a region that markets are currently treating as the next key resistance cluster.

The stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought territory, but instead of signaling exhaustion, it appears to be reinforcing the potential for another bullish wave. Should momentum continue to build, the pair could test the upper boundary of the established ascending channel, with 207.65 emerging as the near-term upside target.

However, the bullish scenario would be challenged if the pair stages a sharp corrective decline. A break below 205.20—considered the crucial intraday support—would weaken upward momentum and activate a bearish correction.

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 206.90

STOP LOSS: 204.50

TAKE PROFIT: 210.00

AUD/USD advanced on Thursday, trading around 0.6525 and extending its modest daily gains as diverging policy expectations between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to dominate market sentiment. The pair rose roughly 0.12% on the day, building on a week of steady upside momentum as investors increasingly position for a softer U.S. interest-rate path.

The latest catalyst fueling the Australian Dollar’s climb came from surprisingly strong domestic data. Australia’s third-quarter private capital expenditure surged by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, almost triple what economists had penciled in. For markets, this signals that business confidence remains more resilient than anticipated despite higher borrowing costs. It also suggests investment momentum is returning to sectors beyond mining, adding another layer of robustness to Australia’s economic outlook.

This was reinforced by the country’s first full monthly CPI reading, which revealed that headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year in October. That print not only beat expectations but also served as a reminder that inflation remains uncomfortably high for an RBA that has repeatedly emphasized the risk of entrenched price pressures. While unemployment has edged slightly higher, policymakers have argued the labor market remains tight enough to prevent any immediate talk of rate cuts.

As a result, markets widely expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 3.6% in December, sticking to a wait-and-see stance rather than joining global peers in signaling easing. From my perspective, the RBA’s cautious rhetoric has been justified; inflation is proving stubborn, and the central bank simply cannot afford to prematurely lower its guard.

The same cannot be said for the Federal Reserve, where expectations have shifted decisively toward a near-term pivot. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign over an 84% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December — a dramatic increase from only a week ago. The market reaction has been swift: U.S. Treasury yields have softened, and the dollar has retreated as investors increasingly embrace the idea that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle.

Contributing to this sentiment are several dovish-leaning remarks from key Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Both suggested recent inflation progress was encouraging and hinted that policymakers could soon shift their focus toward supporting growth. Even though U.S. data has been mixed — with Initial Jobless Claims improving but Retail Sales softening and Consumer Confidence falling sharply — the market has interpreted the overall theme as one of cooling demand and diminishing inflation risks.

For currency traders, the policy divergence is unmistakable. A firm RBA and a Fed inching closer to a rate cut have created a supportive environment for the Australian Dollar. Unless U.S. data surprises significantly to the upside, this gap is likely to widen, favoring further AUD strength in the near term.

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD has broken above the 0.6525 resistance level — a key 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous short-term downtrend from 0.6628 to 0.6422. The breakout indicates improving bullish momentum, especially as price action remains supported above the EMA50, underscoring strong dynamic support.

Momentum oscillators are flashing constructive signals as well. Despite entering overbought territory, the Relative Strength Index continues to print higher highs, reflecting persistent buying interest. A sustained hold above 0.6525 could open the door toward the next resistance zone at 0.6560–0.6580, while immediate support lies at 0.6485.

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6530

STOP LOSS: 0.6490

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6580