Minutes of the October meeting reveal that, within the Policy Board, the case for a near-term hike is strengthening: a majority stressed the need to entrench sustained wage momentum. Eight of the thirteen Policy Board opinions explicitly called for an early rate increase or the prompt setting of conditions for one. Provided global growth and markets remain stable, the Bank could move as soon as next month or in January. However, the exact timing still hinges on whether stronger corporate earnings and management sentiment further bolster confidence that wage growth will persist.

While the Board concluded that an immediate move is not imperative, members warned against missing the opportune moment to raise the policy rate. Several noted that prerequisites for normalisation are largely in place, but flagged the need for additional evidence of underlying inflation's resilience. At the 30 October meeting the BoJ left the overnight call rate at 0.5%. Directors Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata dissented, favouring an immediate 25 bp hike to 0.75%. Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated afterward that the BoJ will keep scrutinising data to verify whether firms can maintain wage hikes even as the U.S. raises tariffs. Board member Junko Nakagawa cited still-fragile consumption and uncertainty over the U.S. outlook as key downside risks.

The minutes explicitly flag U.S. tariff adjustments and Japan's upcoming wage negotiation cycle as pivotal inputs for the next policy step.

Prime Minister Takaichi's dovish stance has materially diluted the authorities' resolve to counter yen weakness. Although Ministry of Finance officials continue to issue verbal warnings against excessive JPY selling, a bloc of fiscal-expansion, low-rate advisors inside the new cabinet argues that a softer yen cushions exports and offsets U.S. tariff shocks, blunting the market impact of official rhetoric.

Participants now assign a low probability to yen depreciation becoming a policy priority unless USDJPY breaks 155–160, the threshold at which escalation—from stronger jawboning to outright intervention—becomes plausible.

Comments by Satsuki Katayama that the negative spill-overs of yen weakness now outweigh the positives failed to lift the currency in the absence of a credible intervention threat.

Persistent intragovernment divergence on the desirability of a weak yen reinforces expectations that the BoJ will slow the pace of rate normalization.

With the Takaichi administration pushing an expansionary agenda, the market prices only a gradual further hike trajectory.

If the BoJ opts for an extended pause, FX intervention would be the lone remaining line of defense. However, the U.S. opposition and the negative real-rate backdrop mean any yen-buying operation risks burning reserves with limited lasting effect.

With key U.S. data releases delayed by the government shutdown, Fed officials have stepped up their messaging. Three regional Fed presidents reiterated inflation concerns, while the Board's most dovish member argued that the available data justify another rate cut.

Amid the widening policy split, market pricing has shifted sharply. By Friday's close, fed-funds futures priced a 60% probability of no move in December. Just one day earlier, the market had priced the probability of a rate cut at roughly 50/50. In the weeks that followed the 29 October policy decision, the consensus had instead coalesced around a December easing.

Several Fed officials on Friday reiterated their hawkish stance, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Speaking at the Pittsburgh Economic Club, Hammack said it is "not yet clear that monetary policy needs to do more." Logan added that, absent stronger evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected or that the labor market is cooling significantly more quickly, she would find it hard to support a December rate cut. Schmid likewise noted that the arguments that led him to oppose October's cut apply equally to the December meeting and emphasized that further easing would do little to relieve the structural strains in the labor market stemming from shifts in technology and immigration policy.

In sharp contrast, Fed Governor Stephen Miran has used two consecutive public appearances to press for another cut. At the October FOMC he voted with Schmid against the decision, having favoured a reduction larger than the ultimately delivered 25 bp. Miran—who will rejoin the White House as an economic adviser when his term expires in January—sides with President Trump in viewing the current funds-rate target as excessively restrictive. Chair Jerome Powell said in October that the moves so far were meant to hedge against a deterioration in labour-market conditions, but cautioned that the government shutdown has delayed key data, leaving the Committee "in a wait-and-see mode." A December cut, he stressed, is "anything but a foregone conclusion."

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands on USDJPY are widening with upward-sloping rails. The MAs remain bullishly aligned, leaving the primary up-trend intact. Price, however, is carving out a rising wedge while MACD histograms shrink, signalling waning momentum. RSI sits at 63—still exuberant. As long as the pair holds above the EMA12, the probability favours a retest of the upper Bollinger band at 155.50 and the psychological 160 handle.

On the 4-hour chart, Bands are pinching and the ribbon has flattened. MACD fast/slow lines have pulled back to the zero-axis and a bullish crossover is pending, flagging an imminent volatility expansion. RSI is neutral at 54, reflecting wait-and-see positioning. A decisive break below the mid-band opens the EMA200 (152.20). Conversely, sustained clearance of the mid-band targets 156.00.

In summary, traders are recommended to go long at lows in the short term.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 154.6

Target Price: 158.8

Stop Loss: 151

Support: 150/148.5/146.6

Resistance Levels: 155/156.7/158.8

Last week, the U.S. Congress made progress on a temporary funding bill, and the government reopening was confirmed. These moves directly reduced political uncertainty and restored the flow of macroeconomic data and fiscal spending expectations that had been disrupted. As a result, the market generally became optimistic about a rapid "return to normal" for the economy, which in the short term drove a rebound in risk assets.

For gold, the end of the shutdown has two intertwined transmission channels: 1. Increased certainty leads to a recovery in risk appetite, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets and thereby putting downward pressure on gold prices. 2. If the resumption of data releases and expectations of fiscal stimulus boost economic and inflation expectations, nominal interest rates will be boosted, which will further weigh on gold prices by raising real/nominal yields. Both of these channels tend to exert downward pressure on gold prices, but the short-term direction is still determined by the immediate reaction of yields and the U.S. dollar.

In reality, the market showed volatility around the shutdown news: when there was hope for an "end to the shutdown," gold prices briefly rose (a mix of safe-haven and rate-cut expectations). Then, gold gave back gains or declined due to strengthening interest rates, a stronger dollar, or risk reassessment. This suggests that short-term buying and selling momentum, as well as volume and capital flows, are key determinants of the outcome.

According to the daily chart, gold prices rebounded last Thursday to near the resistance level of $4230 but then pulled back under pressure. On Friday, driven by the negative impact of the government reopening, prices dropped nearly $200 from the day's high. Currently, they have found temporary support around $4040, and there is a short-term technical need for a corrective rebound.

In terms of technical indicators, the current price is still in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. In the 4H chart, the RSI stays around 40, indicating that market sentiment remains bearish and the room for a rebound may be limited.

At present, the key short-term resistance levels for gold are at $4116–$4150, while the first major support zone lies at $4030–$4000. If the price rebounds to the resistance zone but fails to break through and turns weaker, it may continue to decline in the short term, testing the $4000 level. Conversely, if it strongly breaks above $4150, the upward space for gold will open up, with potential to test the $4245 level.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4112.00

Target price: 3950.00

Stop loss: 4155.00

Valid Until: December 01, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 4032.23/4000.00

Resistance: 4116.00/4150.00

Several members of the FOMC expressed a lack of confidence in lowering borrowing costs, and traders reduced their expectations for another Fed rate hike. This, in turn, helped the U.S. dollar gain some positive momentum at the start of the new week, becoming a key factor weighing on non-interest-bearing gold. However, concerns over weakening economic momentum due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history kept alive the possibility of further monetary easing by the Fed, which may limit the dollar's gains. Additionally, as market risk appetite eases, this could provide some support for the safe-haven asset gold and help limit further downside. Traders may avoid taking new directional bets for now and instead wait for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Moreover, the October nonfarm payrolls data, due on Thursday, will also influence the dollar's movement and, by extension, commodity prices.

Personnel changes within the Federal Reserve, along with remarks from officials, heightened concerns about the independence of monetary policy. Former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed willingness to take over as Fed Chair and advocated for significant rate cuts, while dovish-leaning Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his resignation in February next year. These events sparked speculation that future leadership changes might lean more dovish. Nevertheless, several current Fed officials maintained a hawkish tone during the week, emphasizing that the pause in rate cuts was not due to insufficient data but rather caution over the persistence of inflation. These statements dampen market expectations for a December rate cut from 66% to 43%. The tightening of rate path expectations further diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as gold. At the same time, risk assets such as U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies also came under pressure, leading to synchronized cross-market sell-offs that intensified downward pressure on gold prices.

Based on the weekly chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward. Last week's long upper shadow pattern signaled that a potential trend reversal could occur at any time. In addition, the MACD is about to form a death cross. If confirmed, prices are likely to adjust toward the EMA 12 level, around $3,930. The RSI stands at 69, indicating strong bullish sentiment; however, as prices are gradually declining, a correction is likely to emerge at any time. Regarding the daily chart, the MACD's bullish momentum is gradually weakening, yet prices have failed to make new highs — a sign of a potential bearish divergence. This increases the likelihood of continued short-term declines. Key support levels are the Bollinger Lower Band and the EMA 50, at 3,936, respectively. The RSI is at 52, placing the price in a neutral zone, although price highs continue to trend downward. It is recommended to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4070

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Gold prices retreated from their recent surge on Friday, slipping from Thursday’s three-week high as shifting macro sentiment, firmer yields and a recovering U.S. Dollar forced bulls to give back early gains. Spot gold (XAU/USD) was last seen trading near $4,133, easing from the previous session’s spike to roughly $4,245, as investors reassessed how much room the metal has to advance in an environment where safe-haven demand is losing some of its urgency.

The market’s tone shifted noticeably following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, which removed one of the week’s most potent tailwinds for gold. The fiscal clarity reduced immediate risk aversion and allowed investors to rotate back into select risk assets, trimming the appeal of defensive holdings. At the same time, investors have been digesting a series of cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials, who have collectively pushed back against growing expectations of a December rate cut. The messaging has forced traders to temper expectations for early monetary easing, causing Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar to recover after a period of softness.

This dynamic has created a more challenging environment for bullion. The non-yielding asset typically struggles when rate-cut hopes are scaled back, and the Fed’s reluctance to endorse imminent easing has triggered a recalibration across interest rate futures. The market now appears more aligned with a scenario where the central bank leans on incoming data rather than pre-committing to policy shifts. That uncertainty adds a layer of caution to gold’s outlook, even as broader risk sentiment remains fragile.

Despite the latest pullback, downside pressure has been moderated by persistent unease in global equity markets. Concerns about excessive valuations in the AI sector have once again rattled investor sentiment, contributing to weaker risk appetite across major indices. Tech-heavy benchmarks have experienced renewed selling pressure, and the sense that AI-linked valuations may be overstretched continues to draw capital into safe-haven assets during intraday swings. This push-and-pull between improving fiscal clarity on one hand and ongoing equity market fragility on the other is shaping a more complex trading environment for gold.

Investors are now focused intensely on the release of delayed U.S. economic data, which markets expect will influence the Fed’s next steps. Data covering inflation, employment and consumer spending will help determine whether the central bank maintains a cautious tone or moves closer to signaling easing in early 2025. From my perspective, gold’s medium-term trajectory remains broadly constructive, supported by an eventual policy shift, potential softening in global growth and ongoing geopolitical realignments. However, the near-term picture looks choppy, with every upside push constrained by the Fed’s communication strategy and every downside attempt cushioned by sporadic bouts of risk-off sentiment.

From a technical standpoint, gold has broken below its rising trendline, signaling a weakening in bullish momentum and increasing the likelihood of a broader corrective phase. The rejection from the upper consolidation area serves as confirmation that buyers are beginning to fatigue, allowing sellers to regain control around the $4,112–$4,130 region. The market is now watching how price behaves around successive retest regions. The first area of interest sits between $4,155 and $4,160, which represents the immediate supply created after the trendline breakdown. A rejection there would reinforce the current bearish undertone and could renew momentum toward lower supports.

Should the metal push higher, a more significant battleground emerges around $4,175 to $4,180, where a previous support structure has flipped into resistance. This region carries heavier technical significance because bulls would need a decisive break above it to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. Without such a breakout, sellers are likely to defend the zone aggressively, potentially triggering another wave of downside pressure. In essence, gold remains trapped between macro uncertainty and key technical barriers, leaving traders with a market that can turn sharply on small shifts in sentiment or data surprises.

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4120

STOP LOSS: 4180

TAKE PROFIT: 4045

The latest UK labor market and wage data indicate a clear loosening in the job market: the three-month rolling unemployment rate has risen to around 5%, while both the number of employees on payrolls and wage growth have slowed. This reinforces market perceptions of economic weakness and expectations for monetary easing.

Meanwhile, the preliminary GDP data for the third quarter showed a modest rebound in nominal growth, but it remains a tepid recovery that is unlikely to alter the overall slowdown trend. PMI data for the services and manufacturing sectors suggested divergence, but neither sector displayed strong or sustained expansion signals.

On the inflation front, core inflation has eased from its highs and is now approaching 3.8%. As a result, the Bank of England recently decided by a narrow majority to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4% during its last meeting. However, the BoE explicitly stated that if inflation continues to decline, it would consider starting a rate-cutting cycle in the near term. Markets have already anticipated the possibility of a rate cut in December or later.

Regarding the daily chart, GBP/USD broke down below the support zone between 1.3190 and 1.3000. In recent days, it rebounded toward the resistance level near 1.3190, but today's candle closed as a bearish body, showing weak downside movement. The overall candlestick structure now indicates a confirmed breakdown with a bounce that serves as a continuation pattern, displaying a notable strengthening of short-term bearish momentum. The pair is expected to retest the 1.3000 support level. A break below this level would further open the door to a downward move toward 1.2700.

Selling at highs is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3150

Target price: 1.2750

Stop loss: 1.3220

Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.3000/1.2700

Resistance: 1.3215/1.3248

Influenced by rising food prices, Japan's wholesale price index in October exceeded market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures and potentially increasing the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) difficulty in resuming interest rate hikes. Data shows that due to high rice and other food prices, Japan's corporate goods price index rose by 2.7% year-over-year in October, slightly below September's 2.8% but still surpassing the forecasted 2.5%. Although import prices in yen declined by 1.5% YoY, rising domestic food and non-ferrous metal prices contributed to the overall increase in wholesale prices. Analysts suggest that if Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government proceeds with policies to reduce utility costs as part of stimulus measures, wholesale inflation could slow. However, expansionary fiscal policies may also weaken the yen, elevating import costs and maintaining upward pressure on inflation. Kazuo Ueda further emphasized in the Diet that domestic consumer resilience, the tightening labor market driving wage growth, and the resulting moderate increases in wages and prices constitute a positive feedback loop. Aside from raw material cost inflation, rising prices in the service sector and other goods reflect underlying economic recovery momentum. He believes that core inflation, excluding temporary factors, is accelerating, indicating that Japan is progressing toward the 2% inflation target. However, the BOJ's policy capacity is constrained by government fiscal expansion. Since ending the monetary easing measures implemented during Kuroda Haruhiko's tenure, the BOJ has raised short-term interest rates twice to 0.5% but has maintained stability to assess impacts from global economic shifts. Analysts suggest that the BOJ is attempting to adjust interest rates toward a neutral level—approximately 1% to 1.5%—though large-scale government expenditure plans and appointments of officials supporting accommodative policies may delay this adjustment. Fiscal expansion has raised market concerns, pushing long-term bond yields higher and contributing to yen depreciation, which in turn escalates import costs and inflationary pressures. Some former policymakers warn that this trend could undermine household purchasing power and threaten the sustainability of Japan's economic recovery.

The U.S. on the other side of the Pacific faces ongoing economic and policy uncertainties. After a record-breaking 43-day government shutdown, the federal government has finally reopened. During the impasse, air traffic was disrupted, food assistance programs were interrupted, and over a million federal employees experienced prolonged unpaid leave. Although Congress approved funding through an appropriations bill extending until the end of January next year, core partisan disagreements remain unresolved. Within the Democratic Party, fissures have emerged over strategies toward the Trump administration, with progressives demanding a tough stance and moderates advocating for pragmatic collaboration. Polling indicates that the shutdown has negatively impacted public opinion for both parties. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, approximately US$50 billion in delayed expenditures, with US$14 billion of losses deemed irrecoverable. Disruptions to economic data releases have complicated Federal Reserve and investor assessments of the economic outlook, adding uncertainty to holiday spending behavior. In this context, Federal Reserve officials exhibit increased caution regarding future policy adjustments. Federal Reserve Chair Mary Daly indicated that the risks between achieving price stability and employment goals have become balanced, leading to an open stance on the possibility of a rate cut in December. She emphasized that future policy decisions will depend on newly released data, and it is premature to assert a rate cut at this stage. Despite inflation not yet stabilizing at 2%, the labor market shows some signs of softening. Consequently, market expectations for a December rate reduction have decreased significantly from 67% to 47%. Other officials, such as Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Boston Fed President Collins, also expressed cautious views, suggesting that policy easing should only occur if employment deteriorates substantially. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in December is "far from certain", citing data uncertainties caused by the government shutdown. Market analysts believe that there is no consensus within the Fed on the next policy direction, with balancing inflation and employment remaining a primary consideration.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with the SMAs diverging, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. However, the candlestick pattern forms a wedge, and the MACD momentum is diminishing, while the RSI stands at 62, reflecting strong bullish market sentiment. Nonetheless, the recent highs are progressively declining, suggesting a probable correction to the EMA12 or the middle band of the Bollinger, at levels of approximately 153.8 and 152.8, respectively. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the SMAs are flattening. After the MACD formed a death cross, the MACD line and signal line are beginning to reapproach the zero-axis, currently at a considerable distance, indicating that the correction phase is still underway. The RSI is at 52, signifying that market participants are largely in a wait-and-see stance. Should the price break below the middle Bollinger band, a correction toward the EMA200 at approximately 152.2 is probable; conversely, if the price maintains above the middle band, further upward movement towards 156 is likely. It is recommended to go short initially before going long in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 154.6

Target Price: 151.4

Stop Loss: 156

Support: 150, 148.5, 146.6

Resistance: 155, 156.7, 158.8