The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

Price action has already begun to react bearishly as it nears the 200-period moving average, suggesting that sellers may regain control if the pair fails to break out.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.62751

Entry Price

0.62180

0.63050

0.66059 -0.00062 -0.09%

29.9

Pips

Loss

0.62180

0.63051

Exit Price

0.62751

Entry Price

0.63050

Job openings in the United States declined in February, reflecting growing economic uncertainty as the impact of import tariffs dampened labor demand.

The number of job vacancies, a key measure of labor demand, fell by 194,000 to 7.568 million on the last day of February, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. January’s figures were slightly revised upward to 7.762 million from the previously reported 7.74 million. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast 7.61 million job openings. Meanwhile, layoffs increased by 116,000 to 1.79 million, signaling potential strains in the labor market.

Economic data also pointed to a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity for the first time this year, with prices rising sharply for the second consecutive month. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index dropped 1.3 points to 49.0 in March, indicating contraction. The figure came in slightly below economists’ median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Price pressures within the sector intensified, with the Prices Paid Index climbing 7 points to 69.4, marking its highest level since June 2022. Over the past two months, this index has surged by 14.5 points—the largest two-month increase in four years—underscoring growing cost pressures as tariffs ripple through the economy.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reaffirmed on Monday that current monetary policy remains well-positioned to address economic challenges, though he acknowledged the risks of inflation reigniting.

"Monetary policy remains moderately restrictive," Williams stated in an interview with Yahoo Finance, emphasizing that the current stance continues to exert "some downward pressure on inflation."

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent announced minor adjustments to repurchase agreement (repo) rates on Tuesday but clarified that these changes have no implications for the central bank’s monetary policy stance.

The RBA increased the pricing of all new Open Market Operations (OMO) repos by 5 basis points, bringing them to 10 basis points above the cash rate target. Additionally, the central bank introduced a new seven-day maturity term alongside the existing 28-day term, effective April 9.

Despite these adjustments, the RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and maintained a neutral tone. Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the board remains data-dependent and has not committed to any policy moves in May.

Investor sentiment remains fragile ahead of “Liberation Day,” when the White House is expected to unveil a sweeping tariff package targeting key trading partners. The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend_1

The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD continues to trade within a descending channel, with the upper boundary aligning with the 100- and 200-period moving averages. This confluence of resistance could serve as a strong barrier, potentially setting the stage for a renewed downward move. Price action has already begun to react bearishly as it nears the 200-period moving average, suggesting that sellers may regain control if the pair fails to break out of the channel with strong momentum.

On the hourly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 65, approaching overbought territory. This indicates that bullish momentum may be fading, reinforcing the case for a potential downside reversal. If resistance levels hold, the next bearish targets lie near the lower boundary of the channel, around 0.6217—a key local low reached in the previous session.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6275

Target price: 0.6218

Stop loss: 0.6305

Validity: Apr 10, 2025 15:00:00

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The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend

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